Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[JackCH]

Cedar had down years on their own so it isn't like things are all roses there all the time and let's face it, Six Flags was a disaster of a company which now this new company will have to deal with.


This sounds like we are forgiving the nickel and diming of paid line skipping everywhere except Disney because they didn't charge for it from the get-go. Changing to a paid line skip was a loss of value for most people but let's not pretend like FP+ was sustainable.

They HAD to reduce the number of people using the system and the only way to do that was charge for it or offer no line skip at all. I am fine with that second option, but I don't think most would be on board with that type of change.


That certainly allows those two to charge more, criminally so in some cases, but if people keep buying it they will keep selling it.

Finally, I think the notion that Disney has made it so you HAVE to get LLMP or LLPP is a bit of a myth and mostly a residual of the 2016ish-2019 crowd level horror stories. I completely understand the people that just never want to deal with any line but for your average guest Disney lines aren't longer than anywhere else and likely shorter than most people realize.

My first trip back in about 3 years was in November, I was surprised how moderate the waits were for major attractions. Only got LL for Cosmic Rewind to make sure we could do it.

 

[Dranth]

My first trip back in about 3 years was in November, I was surprised how moderate the waits were for major attractions. Only got LL for Cosmic Rewind to make sure we could do it.

Similar to what we saw when we went in November. Our longest wait the whole trip was around 30 minutes with the overwhelming majority being less than that.

I know some of the busiest days can still be bad but most of the time, people seriously overestimate how long the lines are these days.

 

[JD80]

Cedar had down years on their own so it isn't like things are all roses there all the time and let's face it, Six Flags was a disaster of a company which now this new company will have to deal with.


This sounds like we are forgiving the nickel and diming of paid line skipping everywhere except Disney because they didn't charge for it from the get-go. Changing to a paid line skip was a loss of value for most people but let's not pretend like FP+ was sustainable.

They HAD to reduce the number of people using the system and the only way to do that was charge for it or offer no line skip at all. I am fine with that second option, but I don't think most would be on board with that type of change.


That certainly allows those two to charge more, criminally so in some cases, but if people keep buying it they will keep selling it.

Finally, I think the notion that Disney has made it so you HAVE to get LLMP or LLPP is a bit of a myth and mostly a residual of the 2016ish-2019 crowd level horror stories. I completely understand the people that just never want to deal with any line but for your average guest Disney lines aren't longer than anywhere else and likely shorter than most people realize.

I suspect people that say you have to get LLMP are people who haven't used it or gone to the parks in quite some time.

 

[Chi84]

I suspect people that say you have to get LLMP are people who haven't used it or gone to the parks in quite some time.

Or people who prefer not to stand in lines and don’t mind paying.

 

[larryz]

If 1K guests are in line for a PPH 1K ride, not all of them will have an hour wait (absent LL). The first ones in line have zero wait.

Having 1K guests show up every hour for a 1K ride means there is no wait... unless you suppose 1K show up all at once, which is... unlikely.

Except at rope drop...

 

[MisterPenguin]

Except at rope drop...

Now there's a line to get into line...

 

[flynnibus]

If 1K guests are in line for a PPH 1K ride, not all of them will have an hour wait (absent LL). The first ones in line have zero wait.

Having 1K guests show up every hour for a 1K ride means there is no wait... unless you suppose 1K show up all at once, which is... unlikely.

Your hypothetical is basically one moment in time… the time when the line starts. Guest demand will never continuously match the exact ride throughput. It’s not a real world scenario and why no one bothers with it when talking about operations over a period of time… not some artificial constrained example.

If the rider has zero line and zero wait, the guest feedback loop will create a spike is demand for that ride, causing the ppl entering the queue per minute to increase. Your hypothetical dies within minutes of its birth….

Rides will not operate with zero queues unless there is no demand .. and the whole talk about queuing is pointless since there isn’t enough demand to generate a queue

 

[flynnibus]

And starting with a full queue is not how estimating wait times overall work.

It is how ride throughput is calculated and the steady state of the line is what people focus on. Not the transistion state that is invalidated within a short amount of time.

It is the opposite of what you say - they do want ghe steady state

 

[MisterPenguin]

Your hypothetical is basically one moment in time… the time when the line starts.

Nooo....

I was arguing against a model that assumed an hour's worth of people all showed up at once. *That* is a moment in time.

My modeling very clearly laid out a continuous function over time and checked in on an hourly schedule to see what's happening.

And like many *rate* problems, it starts at the initial condition, which, for a theme park, is a ride that is "on" and the beginning of the day when no one is in line yet and then progresses from there.

You can't check in on a ride at noon and see a long line and understand how it got there unless you start from the beginning. The overflow from one hour to the next will build up. So, you have to watch that and see what happens when the ride's capacity hits its tipping point and the knock-on effects from there on.

 

[UberMouse]

I have interesting info. We just got back from 8 days at WDW (DVC Member). My family consisted of My wife(43), Daughters (13 and 7), Son (13) and myself (47).
We challenged ourselves not to use lightning lane, and we didn't, not even once. (Rode Tron twice), Rode EE probably 12 times). We did use Virtual Queue for Tiana once, and for GOTG twice, as it was necessary and of course free. We had one of the best trips since Genie and LL was released. We rode everything at all of the parks, many multiple times, and had a blast. I don't think we will ever pay to get through a line a little faster again. It slowed things down and we got to spend more time just talking instead of rushing around.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I have interesting info. We just got back from 8 days at WDW (DVC Member). My family consisted of My wife(43), Daughters (13 and 7), Son (13) and myself (47).
We challenged ourselves not to use lightning lane, and we didn't, not even once. (Rode Tron twice), Rode EE probably 12 times). We did use Virtual Queue for Tiana once, and for GOTG twice, as it was necessary and of course free. We had one of the best trips since Genie and LL was released. We rode everything at all of the parks, many multiple times, and had a blast. I don't think we will ever pay to get through a line a little faster again. It slowed things down and we got to spend more time just talking instead of rushing around.

This is great to hear! And its great you saved money not using LL!

And I suspect the rest of 2025 and possibly 2026 will be easier to go without LL.

Just speculation on my part but I am hopeful.

 

[Purduevian]

False

Do you have something to add other than just false? A page or so back a link from all ears was shared discussing this, and there have been reports from others here that the grace period is longer now - not advertised as such, but exists longer.

True

I have no proof but I suspect its up to the CM on duty.

Some want to make guests happy and some want to avoid conflict.

Trying to move this discussion out of the DAS thread and into the proper thread...

If you are outside of the "grace" window for a LL, the little mickey will light up blue and then it is up to the cast member if they will let you in or not. I've only done this on the front end (arriving like 10 mins early). It is certainly up to the CM in that case.

However, the claim from influencers (up to 2 hours late) and my own personal experience (~30 mins late) is the Mickey will light up green and there is no reaction or interaction from the CMs. It's as if you met the window/15 min grace period.

I saw a similar thing with arriving hours late to a GOTG VQ awhile ago.

 

[nickys]

Trying to move this discussion out of the DAS thread and into the proper thread...

If you are outside of the "grace" window for a LL, the little mickey will light up blue and then it is up to the cast member if they will let you in or not. I've only done this on the front end (arriving like 10 mins early). It is certainly up to the CM in that case.

However, the claim from influencers (up to 2 hours late) and my own personal experience (~30 mins late) is the Mickey will light up green and there is no reaction or interaction from the CMs. It's as if you met the window/15 min grace period.

I saw a similar thing with arriving hours late to a GOTG VQ awhile ago.

Agreed.

Touring Plans users have tested this to breaking point. So far, there has been a consistent 1 hr, 59 minutes leeway after the end of the return period. And that is without any CM interaction, just the light.

Could it be changed? Absolutely. Is there a good reason to change it? Not really.

 

[flynnibus]

And like many *rate* problems, it starts at the initial condition, which, for a theme park, is a ride that is "on" and the beginning of the day when no one is in line yet and then progresses from there.

The discussion was about what the LL impact was on an attractions' wait. This is a steady state topic - no one cares about the ramp up period. It's a unique scenario that is not meaningful outside of it. Which is why everyone focuses on the steady state of fully operational... not the ramp up periods.

You can't check in on a ride at noon and see a long line and understand how it got there unless you start from the beginning. The overflow from one hour to the next will build up. So, you have to watch that and see what happens when the ride's capacity hits its tipping point and the knock-on effects from there on.

And the wait is part of the feedback loop into customer demand and thus load. You don't care what happened hours before - you care about what has influenced the queue as it has built up now. And due to throughput and the feedback loop, that look back period is a rolling one.. not back to the start of the day.

This is why rides 'recover' from backups, not stay endlessly backed up.. the feedback loop into customer load causes new load to decrease due to wait tolerance when the queue backs up too much.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The discussion was about what the LL impact was on an attractions' wait.

Which varies over time.

This is a steady state topic - no one cares about the ramp up period.

And because it varies over time, you should care about the ramp up period. Also, if and when it hits its tipping point. And whether, because of the tipping point, the wait is getting longer or shorter.

It's a unique scenario that is not meaningful outside of it. Which is why everyone focuses on the steady state of fully operational... not the ramp up periods.

It's hardly unique.

And the wait is part of the feedback loop into customer demand and thus load. You don't care what happened hours before - you care about what has influenced the queue as it has built up now. And due to throughput and the feedback loop, that look back period is a rolling one.. not back to the start of the day.

Stop hurting my brain. You can't declare you want an instantaneous picture without caring what happened before, and yet you then put the whole thing into motion talking about throughput and feedback loop. And then you put an artificial limit on what you're looking back on without saying how far back and without starting where you should start: at the start of the day.

This is why rides 'recover' from backups, not stay endlessly backed up.. the feedback loop into customer load causes new load to decrease due to wait tolerance when the queue backs up too much.

Rides only recover when the rate of guests (standby and LL) getting on line is less than the rate of the rides throughput, i.e., less than the tipping point. And that only occurs viewing the line over time, not an instantaneous scenario that came out of nowhere.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

If you are outside of the "grace" window for a LL, the little mickey will light up blue and then it is up to the cast member if they will let you in or not. I've only done this on the front end (arriving like 10 mins early). It is certainly up to the CM in that case.

However, the claim from influencers (up to 2 hours late) and my own personal experience (~30 mins late) is the Mickey will light up green and there is no reaction or interaction from the CMs. It's as if you met the window/15 min grace period.

I saw a similar thing with arriving hours late to a GOTG VQ awhile ago.

The Mickey lit up green first attempt every time I swiped in, ranging from 1-1.5 hours after the window expired, over multiple days and in multiple parks. No reaction from cast members whatsoever.

 

[CaptJackSparrow]

They HAD to reduce the number of people using the system and the only way to do that was charge for it or offer no line skip at all. I am fine with that second option, but I don't think most would be on board with that type of change.

Well, since they control the amount of FP or LL or whatever silly name they come up with, that are available. They could simply have reduced the number of passes given out.

 

[flynnibus]

Which varies over time.

If you were looking at a absolute history - yes. But instead, we are talking about abstracting into a model - that you apply to discuss not just history, but behavior overall. When talking about 'how does LL impact attractions' -- No one cares about Jan 12th at 9:04am - They want to understand how it applies so the comprehension can be applied more broadly. Which is why you consider the steady state - not the transition period from zero startup.

And because it varies over time, you should care about the ramp up period. Also, if and when it hits its tipping point. And whether, because of the tipping point, the wait is getting longer or shorter.

No - you don't. The ramp up period is throwaway because it's meaningless to apply to other scenarios. It's unique to it's own situation and not representative of the broader solution. AKA 'true - but meaningless'

Stop hurting my brain. You can't declare you want an instantaneous picture without caring what happened before, and yet you then put the whole thing into motion talking about throughput and feedback loop. And then you put an artificial limit on what you're looking back on without saying how far back and without starting where you should start: at the start of the day.

When did I say I want an instantaneous picture? The whole point was about what the impact of pulling capacity out of the throughput was to the system.

Customer load is not fixed or pre-determined -- it's a function that includes the current posted wait as feedback. Customer load doesn't care if the ride was in a deficit or not 6hrs ago.. it cares about what the system has converged to now. The balancing happens over a lookback period that is shortened by the feedback loop.

If customer demand were pre-determined and immutable, you could map out the posted wait at any point in the day if you knew the ride's operational time... but demand isn't immutable, it's dynamic based on the inputs the customer takes in when they determine to get in line or not. This is exactly why popular rides wait times will recover and converge back to 'normal' waits after an interruption. The wait time will recover eventually because demand will decrease due to the posted elevated wait time.. reducing the demand and reducing the accumulating queue... until the wait time reduces enough to the point to customers are satisified to accept the posted time and get into queue again.The inflow into the queue is a function of customer interest which in itself is influenced by wait times. This is a feedback loop.

Rides only recover when the rate of guests (standby and LL) getting on line is less than the rate of the rides throughput, i.e., less than the tipping point. And that only occurs viewing the line over time, not an instantaneous scenario that came out of nowhere.

Again with this instantaneous non-sense you've dreamt up in your own head. I can't speak to strawmen you dream up.

In a mathmatically sense we would describe the concern you raise... the accumulated backup from some prior point in time... as approaching zero as time moves forward. This is because of the feedback loop that leads to customer influx rate to decrease (when waits are abnormally high). This allows the queue to 'catch up', until the wait time approaches a more acceptable time, and eventually you reach a balance point where customer interest and wait time balance out.

The prior backup you point out is something the formula works its way out of over time... hence it's not interesting when describing how the system operates with it's major parameters. It's a chunk that gets washed out over time.

Contrast that with something like.. LL capacity allocation.. which doesn't converge to zero or get washed out over time.

 

[Chi84]

Stop fighting. You're upsetting the kids.

 

[Dranth]

Well, since they control the amount of FP or LL or whatever silly name they come up with, that are available. They could simply have reduced the number of passes given out.

How were they going to do that? Change the number of FP+ selections from three to two? Not allow any additional after you used your three? Not allow any offsite? No matter what they did it would cause a ton of anger and switching to a paid system was inevitable. It creates a revenue source, solves the overuse problem, and gives them finer control.

Stinks for us, it is great for them.