Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[RememberWhen]

That was actually a rare instance where the prices changed after being initially released. First time that has happened.

Thanks for the update! I had gotten the same data you had elsewhere, so it definitely seemed like a glitch on the WDW end. Always grateful for all the information I get here!

 

[wdwmagic]

First pricing for 2025 is out https://www.wdwmagic.com/genieprice.htm

 

[lentesta]

I'm putting this here for future reference.

A WDW Industrial Engineering doc fell off the back of a truck last week. It had this interesting table on it, related to how much ride capacity is allocated to Lightning Lane, for attractions in the ~1,000 guests/hour capacity range:

Low Attendance: 13% of ride capacity
Medium Attendance: 26% of ride capacity
High Attendance: 32% of ride capacity

32% of ride capacity works out to around 320 guests per hour for this particular set of attractions.

That doesn't count DAS use of LL.

Anecdotally, we think total LL use during peak times is 40-43% of ride capacity, so DAS use would be ~8-11% of ride capacity.

We can't know if that's right without more documentation. But it feels right, and vibes have to count for something.

 

[Purduevian]

I'm putting this here for future reference.

A WDW Industrial Engineering doc fell off the back of a truck last week. It had this interesting table on it, related to how much ride capacity is allocated to Lightning Lane, for attractions in the ~1,000 guests/hour capacity range:

Low Attendance: 13% of ride capacity
Medium Attendance: 26% of ride capacity
High Attendance: 32% of ride capacity

32% of ride capacity works out to around 320 guests per hour for this particular set of attractions.

That doesn't count DAS use of LL.

Anecdotally, we think total LL use during peak times is 40-43% of ride capacity, so DAS use would be ~8-11% of ride capacity.

We can't know if that's right without more documentation. But it feels right, and vibes have to count for something.

Thank you for scanning the streets of Orlando for dropped paperwork and posting it here.

I know you said it doesn't include DAS, however do you know if it includes LLPP, VIP, Golden Oak, or guest recovery (I can't think of any other way to get into the LL)

 

[Trueblood]

I'm putting this here for future reference.

A WDW Industrial Engineering doc fell off the back of a truck last week. It had this interesting table on it, related to how much ride capacity is allocated to Lightning Lane, for attractions in the ~1,000 guests/hour capacity range:

Low Attendance: 13% of ride capacity
Medium Attendance: 26% of ride capacity
High Attendance: 32% of ride capacity

32% of ride capacity works out to around 320 guests per hour for this particular set of attractions.

That doesn't count DAS use of LL.

Anecdotally, we think total LL use during peak times is 40-43% of ride capacity, so DAS use would be ~8-11% of ride capacity.

We can't know if that's right without more documentation. But it feels right, and vibes have to count for something.

I'm having a hard time intuitively understanding the impact that those allocations have on the wait time in the standby line.

Is it as simple as the standby line being a 32% longer wait on average when 32% of riders are using LL?

 

[nickys]

Thank you for scanning the streets of Orlando for dropped paperwork and posting it here.

I know you said it doesn't include DAS, however do you know if it includes LLPP, VIP, Golden Oak, or guest recovery (I can't think of any other way to get into the LL)

Club 33 also

 

[lentesta]

Thank you for scanning the streets of Orlando for dropped paperwork and posting it here.

I know you said it doesn't include DAS, however do you know if it includes LLPP, VIP, Golden Oak, or guest recovery (I can't think of any other way to get into the LL)

It probably includes LLPP, since the amount of those sold in advance is known.

It's harder to predict the others, since (as an example) VIP tours don't have to make ride reservations.

That said, I think those other numbers are so close to 0 that they're irrelevant. We've counted VIP tours going into popular attractions before. I'd be surprised if it was more than a low single-digit percent of total ride capacity.

 

[Andrew25]

I'm having a hard time intuitively understanding the impact that those allocations have on the wait time in the standby line.

Is it as simple as the standby line being a 32% longer wait on average when 32% of riders are using LL?

Quick simple chart, but LL is essentially reducing the hourly capacity of attractions available for LL. So, if an attraction has an hourly capacity of 1,000 riders an hour with no LL, it'll be an hour long wait. If, using Len's latest data, it's a busy day and LL takes 32% of capacity away, that wait-time climbs an additional 28 minutes.

Len mentioned this excludes DAS use, so it's unfortunately quite shocking how much is being taken away from standby.

 

[LSLS]

I'm putting this here for future reference.

A WDW Industrial Engineering doc fell off the back of a truck last week. It had this interesting table on it, related to how much ride capacity is allocated to Lightning Lane, for attractions in the ~1,000 guests/hour capacity range:

Low Attendance: 13% of ride capacity
Medium Attendance: 26% of ride capacity
High Attendance: 32% of ride capacity

32% of ride capacity works out to around 320 guests per hour for this particular set of attractions.

That doesn't count DAS use of LL.

Anecdotally, we think total LL use during peak times is 40-43% of ride capacity, so DAS use would be ~8-11% of ride capacity.

We can't know if that's right without more documentation. But it feels right, and vibes have to count for something.

I don't suppose there was a similar truck issue years ago that gives an idea an idea of what those numbers were with fast pass.

 

[Disstevefan1]

View attachment 835298
Quick simple chart, but LL is essentially reducing the hourly capacity of attractions available for LL. So, if an attraction has an hourly capacity of 1,000 riders an hour with no LL, it'll be an hour long wait. If, using Len's latest data, it's a busy day and LL takes 32% of capacity away, that wait-time climbs an additional 28 minutes.

Len mentioned this excludes DAS use, so it's unfortunately quite shocking how much is being taken away from standby.

I think the capacity of an attraction is the capacity of an attraction.

What LL does is just increase the standby wait times.

 

[Andrew25]

I think the capacity of an attraction is the capacity of am attraction.

What LL does is just increase the standby wait times.

Yes, an attraction's capacity stays the same. What I am showing is how much capacity is left for standby after subtracting LL's impact.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Yes, an attraction's capacity stays the same. What I am showing is how much capacity is left for standby after subtracting LL's impact.

Oh, ok.

 

[Disstevefan1]

When you think about it, the more folks let in the LL queue (for whatever reason) increases the wait time for both the LL queue and the standby queue.

This is why they gutted the DAS system...

 

[MisterPenguin]

View attachment 835298
Quick simple chart, but LL is essentially reducing the hourly capacity of attractions available for LL. So, if an attraction has an hourly capacity of 1,000 riders an hour with no LL, it'll be an hour long wait. If, using Len's latest data, it's a busy day and LL takes 32% of capacity away, that wait-time climbs an additional 28 minutes.

Len mentioned this excludes DAS use, so it's unfortunately quite shocking how much is being taken away from standby.

I'm confused. If a ride has a PPH capacity of 1K, and 1K people show up *over the course of an hour*, then there's no wait at all.

It's unusual to assume 1K show up all at once. And even if they do, it's not an hour wait for all of them, just those near the back of the queue. Those near the front have nearly no wait at all.

 

[Andrew25]

I'm confused. If a ride has a PPH capacity of 1K, and 1K people show up *over the course of an hour*, then there's no wait at all.

It's unusual to assume 1K show up all at once. And even if they do, it's not an hour wait for all of them, just those near the back of the queue. Those near the front have nearly no wait at all.

This is just a simple "if 1K guests are in line" scenario.

 

[LSLS]

I'm confused. If a ride has a PPH capacity of 1K, and 1K people show up *over the course of an hour*, then there's no wait at all.

It's unusual to assume 1K show up all at once. And even if they do, it's not an hour wait for all of them, just those near the back of the queue. Those near the front have nearly no wait at all.

You need to make an assumption that there is already a line, and that the number of people entering a line equals those leaving the line. It's not that 1,000 needs to show up all at once. It's if a ride dispatches 17 people every minute, 17 more people enter that line in that next minute. Those 17 people now have a 1 hour wait. Obviously things are more fluid than that, but you are getting into a much higher end model at that point.

 

[MisterPenguin]

This is just a simple "if 1K guests are in line" scenario.

If 1K guests are in line for a PPH 1K ride, not all of them will have an hour wait (absent LL). The first ones in line have zero wait.

Having 1K guests show up every hour for a 1K ride means there is no wait... unless you suppose 1K show up all at once, which is... unlikely.

 

[MisterPenguin]

You need to make an assumption that there is already a line, and that the number of people entering a line equals those leaving the line. It's not that 1,000 needs to show up all at once. It's if a ride dispatches 17 people every minute, 17 more people enter that line in that next minute. Those 17 people now have a 1 hour wait. Obviously things are more fluid than that, but you are getting into a much higher end model at that point.

You need to assume that the 1K in line has been moving at the rate of 1K per hour for a 1K ride. Absent LL, they have no wait. The ride hasn't reached its 'tipping point' of backing up.

Unless, again, you have 1K people show up all at once.

OR... for some reason the ride was down and backed up by 1K guests. Then restarting the ride, you need to get 1K through the ride. But that's not how figuring throughput works.

 

[LSLS]

You need to assume that the 1K in line has been moving at the rate of 1K per hour for a 1K ride. Absent LL, they have no wait. The ride hasn't reached its 'tipping point' of backing up.

Unless, again, you have 1K people show up all at once.

If 1k are in line they do have a wait from when they enter the que. So the person at the back of the line always has a 1 hour wait. They don't need to all show up at once. Once the line is established, they simply need to replenish at the same rate at which one car/train/whatever dispatches.

 

[Disstevefan1]

If all the attractions had a higher hourly capacity everyone's wait times would go down.

If there were more attractions, everyone's wait times would go down.

I think there was a time Disney worked to lower wait times. In my opinion, today, the higher the wait times, the more money they can make with LLs.