Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[lentesta]

Yeah that's the math.

There would be more people upgrading from Multi-Pass to this than there would be downgrading from VIP tour to this.

This WSJ article from yesterday indicates Disney averaged $250MM/year from 2021-2024 for what was known as Genie+. (Doesn't say if that includes what we now know as LLMP and LLSP combined. Doesn't say which parks.)

I was previously told that combined domestic Genie+ and ILL revenue was between $500 to $800MM annually, and I'm still comfortable with that as a ballpark.

The other thing to take into account is that the average number of LLMP uses per guest remains below 3. Three rides. Three. Per family per day.

This pass is talking about all the rides in one or two parks - a use increase of 500%.

So Disney's going to risk:

• $500 to $800MM in annual revenue
• VIP tour revenue
• Other high-end products

And put more 500% more people in the LL, thereby making it worth less?

Let's say Disney sells 70 VIP tours per day across WDW and DL combined, at $4,000/each. (I think that's absurdly low, but work with me.) That's another $100MM in annual revenue.

So we're looking at $600 to $900MM in annual revenue in their line-skipping programs.

How much ... how much money would they need to charge for Premier Pass to mitigate the risk to that $600-$900MM?

The alternative would be a pass with such limited quantities that it doesn't materially affect any of the above. So that's a possibiilty.

 

[Touchdown]

This WSJ article from yesterday indicates Disney averaged $250MM/year from 2021-2024 for what was known as Genie+. (Doesn't say if that includes what we now know as LLMP and LLSP combined. Doesn't say which parks.)

I was previously told that combined domestic Genie+ and ILL revenue was between $500 to $800MM annually, and I'm still comfortable with that as a ballpark.

The other thing to take into account is that the average number of LLMP uses per guest remains below 3. Three rides. Three. Per family per day.

This pass is talking about all the rides in one or two parks - a use increase of 500%.

So Disney's going to risk:

• $500 to $800MM in annual revenue
• VIP tour revenue
• Other high-end products

And put more 500% more people in the LL, thereby making it worth less?

Let's say Disney sells 70 VIP tours per day across WDW and DL combined, at $4,000/each. (I think that's absurdly low, but work with me.) That's another $100MM in annual revenue.

So we're looking at $600 to $900MM in annual revenue in their line-skipping programs.

How much ... how much money would they need to charge for Premier Pass to mitigate the risk to that $600-$900MM?

The alternative would be a pass with such limited quantities that it doesn't materially affect any of the above. So that's a possibiilty.

Don’t forget Disney also has the numbers (and popularity with guests who buy and those that don’t) on this new system at DLP. A onetime use 1 park skip the line system at most parks in this country costs anywhere from 1-2.5x the price of admission depending on the day and the park. Therefore we are talking about $110-$475, $440-$1900 for a family of 4. On cheaper that’s still an order of magnitude less then a VIP tour and On expensive days is still 5-7x less. It also means you need to sell roughly 1 premier pass to cover the loss of 10 MLL costs. I think that’s a sweet spot either way.

As for multipark, I don’t know if they will offer it, but if they did at WDW I would expect it to cost 2x of the more expensive MK park. Enough to deter most folks from getting it.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

This WSJ article from yesterday indicates Disney averaged $250MM/year from 2021-2024 for what was known as Genie+. (Doesn't say if that includes what we now know as LLMP and LLSP combined. Doesn't say which parks.)

I was previously told that combined domestic Genie+ and ILL revenue was between $500 to $800MM annually, and I'm still comfortable with that as a ballpark.

The other thing to take into account is that the average number of LLMP uses per guest remains below 3. Three rides. Three. Per family per day.

This pass is talking about all the rides in one or two parks - a use increase of 500%.

So Disney's going to risk:

• $500 to $800MM in annual revenue
• VIP tour revenue
• Other high-end products

And put more 500% more people in the LL, thereby making it worth less?

Let's say Disney sells 70 VIP tours per day across WDW and DL combined, at $4,000/each. (I think that's absurdly low, but work with me.) That's another $100MM in annual revenue.

So we're looking at $600 to $900MM in annual revenue in their line-skipping programs.

How much ... how much money would they need to charge for Premier Pass to mitigate the risk to that $600-$900MM?

The alternative would be a pass with such limited quantities that it doesn't materially affect any of the above. So that's a possibiilty.

This rumor makes no sense. Especially in the wake of them **just** revamping the entire system, they’re going to radically change it again and endanger al those profits?

 

[lentesta]

Don’t forget Disney also has the numbers (and popularity with guests who buy and those that don’t) on this new system at DLP. A onetime use 1 park skip the line system at most parks in this country costs anywhere from 1-2.5x the price of admission depending on the day and the park. Therefore we are talking about $110-$475, $440-$1900 for a family of 4. On cheaper that’s still an order of magnitude less then a VIP tour and On expensive days is still 5-7x less. It also means you need to sell roughly 1 premier pass to cover the loss of 10 MLL costs. I think that’s a sweet spot either way.

As for multipark, I don’t know if they will offer it, but if they did at WDW I would expect it to cost 2x of the more expensive MK park. Enough to deter most folks from getting it.

How dare you respond to me with facts, numbers, and rational arguments! And this early in the morning!

The "we have to sell 10x" thing is good context. Let me think about that.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Curious if the reports of resort and restaurant attendance sharply declining are true. If so, this seems a bit like the left hand not knowing what the right is doing. If that’s true - if - they’ve already created an unfortunate imbalance in guest spending. They still need people in resorts and restaurants, unless they plan on closing them eventually. This seems like it will skew vacation budgets even more.

 

[GoofGoof]

Don’t forget Disney also has the numbers (and popularity with guests who buy and those that don’t) on this new system at DLP. A onetime use 1 park skip the line system at most parks in this country costs anywhere from 1-2.5x the price of admission depending on the day and the park. Therefore we are talking about $110-$475, $440-$1900 for a family of 4. On cheaper that’s still an order of magnitude less then a VIP tour and On expensive days is still 5-7x less. It also means you need to sell roughly 1 premier pass to cover the loss of 10 MLL costs. I think that’s a sweet spot either way.

As for multipark, I don’t know if they will offer it, but if they did at WDW I would expect it to cost 2x of the more expensive MK park. Enough to deter most folks from getting it.

So based on a 10X multiple if we assume on average 50% of guests were using LL products they would need an average of roughly 5% of guests to buy this hypothetical new product to break even. I don’t know where a park like Universal is with Express Pass usage but I’d guess more than 5%. Now they would also need to make up for lost VIP tour sales as well so maybe somewhere between 5% and 10% of guests using.

If they switched to this system and broke even on profits from sales it would make the standby lines significantly shorter. So a change would be a huge benefit for the half of guests not using LL today, a huge benefit for the 10% willing to pay up for the new system (use of product benefit, not a financial one) and a negative for the other 40% who today buy LL but won’t pay up for the new system. That group at least gets the financial benefit of not paying in and they also still benefit from lower standby lines.

 

[JD80]

This WSJ article from yesterday indicates Disney averaged $250MM/year from 2021-2024 for what was known as Genie+. (Doesn't say if that includes what we now know as LLMP and LLSP combined. Doesn't say which parks.)

I was previously told that combined domestic Genie+ and ILL revenue was between $500 to $800MM annually, and I'm still comfortable with that as a ballpark.

The other thing to take into account is that the average number of LLMP uses per guest remains below 3. Three rides. Three. Per family per day.

This pass is talking about all the rides in one or two parks - a use increase of 500%.

So Disney's going to risk:

• $500 to $800MM in annual revenue
• VIP tour revenue
• Other high-end products

And put more 500% more people in the LL, thereby making it worth less?

Let's say Disney sells 70 VIP tours per day across WDW and DL combined, at $4,000/each. (I think that's absurdly low, but work with me.) That's another $100MM in annual revenue.

So we're looking at $600 to $900MM in annual revenue in their line-skipping programs.

How much ... how much money would they need to charge for Premier Pass to mitigate the risk to that $600-$900MM?

The alternative would be a pass with such limited quantities that it doesn't materially affect any of the above. So that's a possibiilty.

I think you and @Touchdown have good points here, let me interject a few random thoughts as the caffeine hasn't hit me yet.

1. Would Disney have the data of the following:
   1. People who have done the VIP tour and wouldn't again because of the cost?
   2. People who may have inquired about the VIP tour but passed on it because of the cost?
   3. People who have purchased G+ or LLMP who have higher spend profiles (club level, deluxe stays, high income, large ticket packages, high spend in merch/dining, frequent visitors) that have responded unfavorably to the current system?

If Disney does have this information, could Disney be considering that there is a untapped market for a middle option between LLMP and VIP where they weren't converting LLMP to VIP?

There may be a Goldie Locks price point where they would convert LLMP to this new pass but also not cannibalize VIP sales but also not make it insanely popular. Remember how they thought G+ would only be purchased by 25% of guests prior to launch? Is this an evolution to this?

 

[GoofGoof]

This WSJ article from yesterday indicates Disney averaged $250MM/year from 2021-2024 for what was known as Genie+. (Doesn't say if that includes what we now know as LLMP and LLSP combined. Doesn't say which parks.)

I was previously told that combined domestic Genie+ and ILL revenue was between $500 to $800MM annually, and I'm still comfortable with that as a ballpark.

The other thing to take into account is that the average number of LLMP uses per guest remains below 3. Three rides. Three. Per family per day.

This pass is talking about all the rides in one or two parks - a use increase of 500%.

So Disney's going to risk:

• $500 to $800MM in annual revenue
• VIP tour revenue
• Other high-end products

And put more 500% more people in the LL, thereby making it worth less?

Let's say Disney sells 70 VIP tours per day across WDW and DL combined, at $4,000/each. (I think that's absurdly low, but work with me.) That's another $100MM in annual revenue.

So we're looking at $600 to $900MM in annual revenue in their line-skipping programs.

How much ... how much money would they need to charge for Premier Pass to mitigate the risk to that $600-$900MM?

The alternative would be a pass with such limited quantities that it doesn't materially affect any of the above. So that's a possibiilty.

$600-$900M means $1.6M to $2.5M per day on average of sales. So if they really charge $300 PP on average for the new product they would need between 5,000 and 8,000 guests a day to buy in. If they only charge $150 then double that to 10,000 to 16,000. My guess is the sweet spot would be somewhere between $150 and $300 for price. If less than 10,000 total guests used this system it might actually work. Would they really get 10,000 people to pay something like $250 for this product? That’s the million dollar question….or in this case $600M to $900M question

Do you have any idea what percent of Universal guests use Express Pass?

 

[JD80]

So based on a 10X multiple if we assume on average 50% of guests were using LL products they would need an average of roughly 5% of guests to buy this hypothetical new product to break even. I don’t know where a park like Universal is with Express Pass usage but I’d guess more than 5%. Now they would also need to make up for lost VIP tour sales as well so maybe somewhere between 5% and 10% of guests using.

If they switched to this system and broke even on profits from sales it would make the standby lines significantly shorter. So a change would be a huge benefit for the half of guests not using LL today, a huge benefit for the 10% willing to pay up for the new system (use of product benefit, not a financial one) and a negative for the other 40% who today buy LL but won’t pay up for the new system. That group at least gets the financial benefit of not paying in and they also still benefit from lower standby lines.

I get the impression this would be layered on top of LLMP as a premium product.

 

[Touchdown]

I get the impression this would be layered on top of LLMP as a premium product.

Yes, at DLP you can still buy 1 time LL at each attraction separately.

 

[GoofGoof]

I get the impression this would be layered on top of LLMP as a premium product.

It could, but unless sales were very low it would severely limit capacity available for LLMP because you would need to hold back capacity for the premium product and still have some left for standby. It’s possible but there are already gripes about rides not being available and this would make it much worse.

An alternative would be to eliminate LLMP, but add more rides to individual LL. So maybe all tier 1s go to individual and they would be priced accordingly and when they sell out they sell out. Then people who don’t buy the premium product can pick and choose which rides they want to skip the line. So for example if they want a 50/50 split between LL and standby and they know how many premium passes were sold they can release the rest of the 50% of LL capacity into an individual ride product.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes, at DLP you can still buy 1 time LL at each attraction separately.

Is this available for more attractions in Paris or is it just the top 1 or 2 rides?

 

[Touchdown]

It could, but unless sales were very low it would severely limit capacity available for LLMP because you would need to hold back capacity for the premium product and still have some left for standby. It’s possible but there are already gripes about rides not being available and this would make it much worse.

An alternative would be to eliminate LLMP, but add more rides to individual LL. So maybe all tier 1s go to individual and they would be priced accordingly and when they sell out they sell out. Then people who don’t buy the premium product can pick and choose which rides they want to skip the line. So for example if they want a 50/50 split between LL and standby and they know how many premium passes were sold they can release the rest of the 50% of LL capacity into an individual ride product.

Or have a system in place to count the uses of each rides LL, the current standby and LL wait, and how many premier pass users haven’t used their LL for that ride and sell additional tickets when certain thresholds are met.

 

[Touchdown]

Is this available for more attractions in Paris or is it just the top 1 or 2 rides?

Every ride, but the price is variable.

 

[MrPromey]

$600-$900M means $1.6M to $2.5M per day on average of sales. So if they really charge $300 PP on average for the new product they would need between 5,000 and 8,000 guests a day to buy in. If they only charge $150 then double that to 10,000 to 16,000. My guess is the sweet spot would be somewhere between $150 and $300 for price. If less than 10,000 total guests used this system it might actually work. Would they really get 10,000 people to pay something like $250 for this product? That’s the million dollar question….or in this case $600M to $900M question

Do you have any idea what percent of Universal guests use Express Pass?

The bigger question is what percent of Universal guests are paying for Express Pass.

There are two Express Pass products.

The Universal equivalent of moderate and deluxe tier guests get the more expensive unlimited pass included "free" for every guest in their party. (no way Disney would offer this)

They also sell this tier at a price that fluctuates with attendance in addition to another tier that's good for one Express Pass entrance to each attraction per day* at a lower price that also fluctuates with attendance, both of which are subject to selling out to ensure that usage has some sort of limit to the impact it can create on standard lines.

*Top tier AP holders also get the one per attraction per day access at both parks after 4pm included with the AP - I also don't see Disney doing anything like this.

 

[GoofGoof]

The bigger question is what percent of Universal guests are paying for Express Pass.

There are two Express Pass products.

The Universal equivalent of moderate and deluxe tier guests get the more expensive unlimited pass included "free" for every guest in their party. (no way Disney would offer this)

They also sell this tier at a price that fluctuates with attendance in addition to another tier that's good for one Express Pass entrance to each attraction per day* at a lower price that also fluctuates with attendance, both of which are subject to selling out to ensure that usage has some sort of limit to the impact it can create on standard lines.

*Top tier AP holders also get the one per attraction per day access at both parks after 4pm included with the AP.

I agree that Disney can never roll this out for all deluxe hotels. Way too many people.

Im more curious on percent of guests using it from the operational side. The existence of express pass does not seem to greatly impact standby lines there. WDW is a different animal with more guests and less capacity at 3 of 4 parks, but there should be a sweet spot where a system like this doesn’t cripple standby lines. They need to find it and price accordingly or this will be a train wreck.

 

[MrPromey]

I agree that Disney can never roll this out for all deluxe hotels. Way too many people.

Im more curious on percent of guests using it from the operational side. The existence of express pass does not seem to greatly impact standby lines there. WDW is a different animal with more guests and less capacity at 3 of 4 parks, but there should be a sweet spot where a system like this doesn’t cripple standby lines. They need to find it and price accordingly or this will be a train wreck.

If it were to replace the existing system, I'd agree.

Otherwise, I'd say the current system has already crippled standby lines and adding anything else on top (especially if with the current system, people are averaging under 3 uses per day and this is offering potentially every attraction in a park with no wait and no scheduled time) is only going to make things worse.

 

[GoofGoof]

If it were to replace the existing system, I'd agree.

Otherwise, I'd say the current system has already crippled standby lines and adding anything else on top (especially if with the current system, people are averaging under 3 uses per day and this is offering potentially every attraction in a park with no wait and no scheduled time) is only going to make things worse.

100% agree. I can’t see how this wouldn’t replace LLMP completely as a product. Having both would be a logistical nightmare and at busy times would make standby insane.

 

[Indy_UK]

They must be running both systems.

I can't see them doing all this rebranding and the app updates so people can book in advance and then decide to take it all away. Although I would prefer they did a single more expensive option, going from free fastpass, to paid Genie+ to $200 or so Universal type pass would send the casuals into meltdown

 

[SoFloMagic]

It could, but unless sales were very low it would severely limit capacity available for LLMP because you would need to hold back capacity for the premium product and still have some left for standby. It’s possible but there are already gripes about rides not being available and this would make it much worse.

An alternative would be to eliminate LLMP, but add more rides to individual LL. So maybe all tier 1s go to individual and they would be priced accordingly and when they sell out they sell out. Then people who don’t buy the premium product can pick and choose which rides they want to skip the line. So for example if they want a 50/50 split between LL and standby and they know how many premium passes were sold they can release the rest of the 50% of LL capacity into an individual ride product.

As a local, I endorse this model. Would love to buy a single ride for, say, $8-10