Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

Splash4eva

Well-Known Member
They will probably price this at roughly the same price “per person” as a VIP tour would get maybe a little cheaper to give people who dont have the max amount of guests a chance to pay for a similar service and providing yet another huge revenue stream for the parks…
 

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
Personal guess

  • AK 2027 moves to tiers. ILL is one of Encanto/Indy. Tier 1 is FOP, the other new ride, the carousel, and Safari
  • Carsland. E ticket moves to ILL, Tron off ILL and into tier 1. Family ride also on tier 1. Big thunder off tier 1
  • Villians land. 7D finally moves off ILL and into tier 1, cars kids ride moves off tier 1. Biggest villain ride is ILL, second villians ride tier 1
  • Monsters Inc. Monsters moves into tier 1 and boots MFSR into tier 2.
The line skipping systems change more frequently than the build time for new attractions. Trying to predict where rides will be slotted into the 2024 system when we know the rides themselves won't open until 2027-2030 is a fool's errand.
 

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
I've done a few VIP tours. It's possible for a group of adults to see 15 or 16 attractions across a couple of parks in the 7 hours of a standard tour.

A standard tour can accommodate 10 people. Let's say the hourly rate averages $700 excluding gratuity, so the whole tour costs $4900.

That's $490 per person for LL access to 15 or 16 rides.

A Premier Pass that costs less than $490 per person seems like it would cannibalize VIP tours.

What am I missing here?
The smell of polyester?
 

SoFloMagic

Well-Known Member
The pricing would also likely vary a lot based on day and probably park. Universal Express Pass price ranges from $90 up to close to $400. WDW would have some sort of a range as well. The super busy times when it would really be valuable will be closer to the $400. Universal also charges a premium for 2 park vs a single park. It will be interesting to see how they handle their 3rd park now. With Disney will they have 1 price for just 1 park and a higher price that allows hopping? I assume that would be the case.

I agree they will probably keep both LLMP/LLIP and an express pass product which will create issues for sure around capacity.
I doubt this will actually happen, as I can't figure out pricing. Is multipass is $35 and hotel guests can pre-book, how do you justify pricing Premier at 10x the price? Unless it includes all the single pass ones and virtual queue rides too?
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I doubt this will actually happen, as I can't figure out pricing. Is multipass is $35 and hotel guests can pre-book, how do you justify pricing Premier at 10x the price? Unless it includes all the single pass ones and virtual queue rides too?
I don’t think it happens either but if they did do it the pricing would have to be outrageous to all but a small number of visitors or it won’t work. I would assume if this did happen it would include all LL rides except maybe something brand new and in high demand (see Hagrid).

Assuming it’s dynamic pricing the high end would only happen at super peak times like Christmas week….similar to Universal Express Pass. So while LLMP may only cost $35 it’s only going to get you 4 or 5 rides during that busy of a week (maybe only 1 tier 1) and you have limited times you can use it. There are 20+ LL attractions at MK and most will have significant waits in a super peak week so if you get front of the line access whenever you want (no reservations) for all those rides it’s going to cost a whole lot more than LLMP. At slow times maybe they sell it for $100 or less but it would have significantly less value.
 

SoFloMagic

Well-Known Member
I don’t think it happens either but if they did do it the pricing would have to be outrageous to all but a small number of visitors or it won’t work. I would assume if this did happen it would include all LL rides except maybe something brand new and in high demand (see Hagrid).

Assuming it’s dynamic pricing the high end would only happen at super peak times like Christmas week….similar to Universal Express Pass. So while LLMP may only cost $35 it’s only going to get you 4 or 5 rides during that busy of a week (maybe only 1 tier 1) and you have limited times you can use it. There are 20+ LL attractions at MK and most will have significant waits in a super peak week so if you get front of the line access whenever you want (no reservations) for all those rides it’s going to cost a whole lot more than LLMP. At slow times maybe they sell it for $100 or less but it would have significantly less value.
Yeah. It's just universal doesn't have a $35 option to compare it too. But I guess it makes sense to have something between $35 and $10,000
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Yeah. It's just universal doesn't have a $35 option to compare it too. But I guess it makes sense to have something between $35 and $10,000
Don’t give Universal any ideas….Express Pass works fine for the limited people using it and everybody else survives fine using the regular queue. If they added a limited product that was much cheaper but only got you a handful of rides it would just muck up the system.
 

SoFloMagic

Well-Known Member
Don’t give Universal any ideas….Express Pass works fine for the limited people using it and everybody else survives fine using the regular queue. If they added a limited product that was much cheaper but only got you a handful of rides it would just muck up the system.
Exactly why disney shouldn't do it ☺
 

WDWTrojan

Well-Known Member
I've done a few VIP tours. It's possible for a group of adults to see 15 or 16 attractions across a couple of parks in the 7 hours of a standard tour.

A standard tour can accommodate 10 people. Let's say the hourly rate averages $700 excluding gratuity, so the whole tour costs $4900.

That's $490 per person for LL access to 15 or 16 rides.

A Premier Pass that costs less than $490 per person seems like it would cannibalize VIP tours.

What am I missing here?

Disney also (stupidly) forces nearly all of their VIP tours through the Lightning Lane, where as Universal gets guests right on the rides.

I don’t have faith in them doing this but it would make logical sense to have the tours get you onto the rides via exits, secret hallways etc just as they already do for celebs and execs. It would help keep the tour product a step above.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
No way this runs alongside what goes on now this will be the end to MLL, it will be like DLP. There is not enough space for all three without the line being too long for Premier, or there not being enough spots for MLL.

And that’s ok by me, a whole lot less people will use it, those that do will get a good deal and standby will move faster which will be good for everyone else.
 

Mr. Sullivan

Well-Known Member
I doubt Disney would give any LL free.
And they shouldn't.

People look back on the old system way, way too fondly. It had the same issues that Genie/LLMP does but everyone just tolerated them because it was free. Their way of doing it has always from the very minute they started doing skip the line stuff an absolute mess. Probably the worst of any major theme park chain there is.

They need to just adopt Universal's model and call it day. Do away with the complexities, do away with the mess, just make it simple. It shouldn't be hard yet they have somehow found a way to always make it that way.
 

Indy_UK

Well-Known Member
I can't see this more expensive tier replacing the current cheaper version as they are going to be loosing so much income. Will enough people pay $150-$200 per day to substitute what they currently make?
 

Loose Pebble

Active Member
I can't see this more expensive tier replacing the current cheaper version as they are going to be loosing so much income. Will enough people pay $150-$200 per day to substitute what they currently make?
Nope - seems like it’s gonna be another layer of complexity. I feel so bad for the cast members who will need to deal with angry visitors who bought the wrong one and can’t get on everything
 

lentesta

Premium Member
Yeah that's the math.

There would be more people upgrading from Multi-Pass to this than there would be downgrading from VIP tour to this.

This WSJ article from yesterday indicates Disney averaged $250MM/year from 2021-2024 for what was known as Genie+. (Doesn't say if that includes what we now know as LLMP and LLSP combined. Doesn't say which parks.)

I was previously told that combined domestic Genie+ and ILL revenue was between $500 to $800MM annually, and I'm still comfortable with that as a ballpark.

The other thing to take into account is that the average number of LLMP uses per guest remains below 3. Three rides. Three. Per family per day.

This pass is talking about all the rides in one or two parks - a use increase of 500%.

So Disney's going to risk:
  • $500 to $800MM in annual revenue
  • VIP tour revenue
  • Other high-end products
And put more 500% more people in the LL, thereby making it worth less?

Let's say Disney sells 70 VIP tours per day across WDW and DL combined, at $4,000/each. (I think that's absurdly low, but work with me.) That's another $100MM in annual revenue.

So we're looking at $600 to $900MM in annual revenue in their line-skipping programs.

How much ... how much money would they need to charge for Premier Pass to mitigate the risk to that $600-$900MM?

The alternative would be a pass with such limited quantities that it doesn't materially affect any of the above. So that's a possibiilty.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
This WSJ article from yesterday indicates Disney averaged $250MM/year from 2021-2024 for what was known as Genie+. (Doesn't say if that includes what we now know as LLMP and LLSP combined. Doesn't say which parks.)

I was previously told that combined domestic Genie+ and ILL revenue was between $500 to $800MM annually, and I'm still comfortable with that as a ballpark.

The other thing to take into account is that the average number of LLMP uses per guest remains below 3. Three rides. Three. Per family per day.

This pass is talking about all the rides in one or two parks - a use increase of 500%.

So Disney's going to risk:
  • $500 to $800MM in annual revenue
  • VIP tour revenue
  • Other high-end products
And put more 500% more people in the LL, thereby making it worth less?

Let's say Disney sells 70 VIP tours per day across WDW and DL combined, at $4,000/each. (I think that's absurdly low, but work with me.) That's another $100MM in annual revenue.

So we're looking at $600 to $900MM in annual revenue in their line-skipping programs.

How much ... how much money would they need to charge for Premier Pass to mitigate the risk to that $600-$900MM?

The alternative would be a pass with such limited quantities that it doesn't materially affect any of the above. So that's a possibiilty.
Don’t forget Disney also has the numbers (and popularity with guests who buy and those that don’t) on this new system at DLP. A onetime use 1 park skip the line system at most parks in this country costs anywhere from 1-2.5x the price of admission depending on the day and the park. Therefore we are talking about $110-$475, $440-$1900 for a family of 4. On cheaper that’s still an order of magnitude less then a VIP tour and On expensive days is still 5-7x less. It also means you need to sell roughly 1 premier pass to cover the loss of 10 MLL costs. I think that’s a sweet spot either way.

As for multipark, I don’t know if they will offer it, but if they did at WDW I would expect it to cost 2x of the more expensive MK park. Enough to deter most folks from getting it.
 

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