Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[lentesta]

This old chestnut is from 2018. Has he indicated something different since then? Where lowered capacity is readily observable (e.g., attractions with less than the full complement of loading bays being used) I've continued to see attractions running at lowered capacity the overwhelming majority of the time in the intervening years, whether we were visiting over President's Day weekend (which was horribly crowded), or late August (when crowds are lower than usual).

Len Testa Crowd Analysis

I just listened to a podcast from DISUnplugged featuring @lentesta discussing the crowds so far in 2018. I highly recommend listening to it, his information was very interesting. Apparently his wait time projections were significantly off for the start of 2018. Particularly, wait times in...

forums.wdwmagic.com

There's two parts to this:

1) Just comparing actual wait times to posted wait times, you can't conclude that Disney's artificially inflating posted wait times.

About 75% of posted wait times are less than the amount of time you'll really wait in line. But that means roughly 25% of posted wait times are less than or equal to your actual wait in line.

I don't think you could convince a judge or jury with those numbers. Disney's explanation is going to be along the lines of "It's just so gosh-darned hard to get this right!"

2) Disney doesn't have to artificially inflate the numbers to sell Genie+. It can get the same results by just having everyone be uncertain as to whether the posted waits are accurate.

In that case, you're just buying insurance: If the posted wait times are overinflated, you'd still wait less than almost everyone else; and if the posted wait times are too low, you're still covered.

 

[JIMMYEDDIE]

What? There aren’t even 4-6 Tier 1 rides in any given park. You’re telling us your touring strategy is to park hop to 3 parks in an afternoon and only ride the headliners?

Thats why i put it in quotes........My Tier 1's are

HS: Rise, Tower, Rocking, Millenium, Runaway, Slink

Epcot: Guardians, Test T, Soarin, Frozen, Remys

MK: Tron, Space, P Pan, Pirates, Thunder, Tianas

AK: Flight, Everest, Navi, Safari

 

[Dranth]

So it would take Disney 15 years to build?

Outside of the Covid mess they generally take pretty similar times. The difference is we hear about it for 3-5 years before hand when it comes to Disney.

 

[Saskdw]

Outside of the Covid mess they generally take pretty similar times. The difference is we hear about it for 3-5 years before hand when it comes to Disney.

How long did Tron take?
It seems like Universal built an entire park in the same amount of time Disney did one ride?

 

[Dranth]

How long did Tron take?
It seems like Universal built an entire park in the same amount of time Disney did one ride?

Five years and 2 months with it running from 2018 - 2023.

Tron is a great example of why I included the Covid exceptions because Disney REALLY put everything into a crawl during that stretch. Outside of that, Disney has historically taken longer but not at the ridiculous levels we have seen during Covid.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yeah but nothing is ever actually "gone." You can always get everything if you have the patience to refresh.

Yep. That goes equally for both systems. With no re-rides it may actually be more likely to get a tier 1 that someone else drops later in the day.

 

[Deadly Danson]

If you have an Android phone, have you turned off the location permissions for the app and also turned off the location on your phone? This allows me to at least select the park I need, although I can't proceed further without a valid ticket.

Doesn't seem to make any difference but thanks. I'll keep trying and then by the time I go hopefully someone will have figured something out.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Five years and 2 months with it running from 2018 - 2023.

Tron is a great example of why I included the Covid exceptions because Disney REALLY put everything into a crawl during that stretch. Outside of that, Disney has historically taken longer but not at the ridiculous levels we have seen during Covid.

This is one area I respect Universal far more than Disney, when they announced Epic back in 2019 the expected opening date was 2025, after the Covid shutdown they ramped up construction so they could still open in 2025, when Disney announced Tron it was supposed to be open by the 50th, after the Covid shutdown they slowed down construction so they could spread the cost over more quarters.

One is customer expectation driven, the other is spreadsheet drive. When Uni announces something I expect it to be built, when Disney announces something I give it a 50/50 chance of ever happening.

 

[GhostHost1000]

when Disney announces something I give it a 50/50 chance of ever happening.

and if it does, expect the budget to be cut and it turn out nothing like the concept art

 

[GoofGoof]

Though I'm not sure anyone would have the answer to this but what happens to someone who's doing a split stay between a few on-site resorts. I'm going in November and my arrival day is at the Dolphin, then I'm switching to Old Key West 4 for 3 nights then Boulder Ridge for 5 nights. I have a 14 day ticket that starts the day I arrive on November 7th. Will I be able to set up all of my fast passes 1 week prior to my arrival at the Dolphin through the full 14 day ticket? All three resorts are linked to mde.

At a minimum you should be able to book all 14 days of your park ticket 3 days prior to start so Nov 4th.

As far as booking all 14 days on Oct 31 that’s a good question. I have a similar situation with just 2 hotels. For dining they won’t link the 2 reservations so you have to wait for 60 days prior to the second one for those days but this system seems to be more linked to your park ticket than to your room so not sure. I am going in August so I’ll let you know if we don’t find out before then

 

[Dranth]

One is customer expectation driven, the other is spreadsheet drive.

Well, they did put the human embodiment of an early 2000s era Excel sheet in charge of the company during the Covid mess.

 

[Saskdw]

This is one area I respect Universal far more than Disney, when they announced Epic back in 2019 the expected opening date was 2025, after the Covid shutdown they ramped up construction so they could still open in 2025, when Disney announced Tron it was supposed to be open by the 50th, after the Covid shutdown they slowed down construction so they could spread the cost over more quarters.

One is customer expectation driven, the other is spreadsheet drive. When Uni announces something I expect it to be built, when Disney announces something I give it a 50/50 chance of ever happening.

They originally said summer 2025.
All the latest reports are it will open months ahead of schedule. They are now saying early 2025.
You might see some special previews happening during the holidays this year at the rate they are going.

Disney is on the mat and Universal's foot is on their throat.

 

[GhostHost1000]

They originally said summer 2025.
All the latest reports are it will open months ahead of schedule. They are now saying early 2025.
You might see some special previews happening during the holidays this year at the rate they are going.

Disney is on the mat and Universal's foot is on their throat.

don't worry... Disney has a plan.

New popcorn bucket coming soon!

 

[Cariad]

You can use 1 and book another. You don’t have to wait until all 3 are used.

No re-bookings

And we can use it at all the parks? Use the pre booked ones at one park, say MK and then hop over to EPCOT and be able to book rides there?

 

[Saskdw]

don't worry... Disney has a plan.

New popcorn bucket coming soon!

With "free" butter like substance topping?

 

[GhostHost1000]

With "free" butter like substance topping?

free? no way

 

[JAB]

And we can use it at all the parks? Use the pre booked ones at one park, say MK and then hop over to EPCOT and be able to book rides there?

Yep. You don't even have to wait until you've used all 3 of your pre-booked LL. After you tap in to your first pre-booked LL, you're free to make your next selection from the available LL at any park (as long as you have a park hopper ticket for that day).

 

[meggo819]

Does Scott or anybody else know if LL selections will actually open up same day at 7AM?

I wonder if they’d limit changes until you’ve tapped into the park.

 

[Marionnette]

I wonder if they’d limit changes until you’ve tapped into the park.

Wouldn't that give onsite guests another advantage since they can enter 30 minutes before offsite guests?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

They originally said summer 2025.
All the latest reports are it will open months ahead of schedule. They are now saying early 2025.
You might see some special previews happening during the holidays this year at the rate they are going.

Disney is on the mat and Universal's foot is on their throat.

I wouldn’t go that far but it’s shocking how quickly Universal has gone from an Orlando afterthought, to worthy of adding a day to a WDW vacation, to worthy of a couple days of an Orlando vacation, to the primary reason many now go to Orlando.

I think they still have a ways to go to catch Disney but if Universal and Disney both continue on their current paths it’s possible Universal could overtake Disney as theme park king in our lifetime, something I’d have thought impossible prior to HP and their massive increase in quality ever since then.