Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[mikejs78]

I bet every 'regular' Disney customer will buy Genie+ at least some of their days of every trip. Noobs? I guess it depends on how they book their trip, but I bet more than half will give in during their trip and buy Genie+

How many will buy paid LL? I think that one will still vary a ton depending on runtime conditions. But there are thousands of guests for which an extra $100 to buy their way out of a problem will do so with barely a hestitation. Just look at every 'dining package' and 'fireworks desert' event that Disney has been managing to sell for years now. Those people were simply buying their way out of a problem for ONE show. They'll do the same for their headliners when lines are bad.

Disney won't have any problem with people paying...

I doubt local AP holders will buy it all the time. Maybe occasionally.

 

[Chi84]

2) Your family does a commando day at two parks on Monday, and Monday night you tell everyone 'ok, we gotta get up early tomorrow for our planned Typhoon Lagoon day!' and everyone moans they don't want to spend all day in the sun after being wiped out... So they want to sleep in and do something more lightweight tomorrow. When I'm booking day by day, I can actually listen to my family and adapt and still have a good shot at attractions for what we decide to do... not be punished because my family didn't realize 6 months ago what 95deg heat would really do to them on a long day.

We used FP+ every year of its existence (and made ADRs) and never had a problem like this. We were always able to change our plans. Are you speaking from experience or just based on a worst case scenario?

Actually, though, we kind of knew it was going to be hot in Florida and that WDW can involve some pretty active days. So we took that into account in planning our days. And if we were forced to do a Typhoon Lagoon day when tired, it’s a great place to just relax in the lazy river. Maybe you’re overthinking things and looking for problems.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I doubt local AP holders will buy it all the time. Maybe occasionally.

Which is one big reason they really don’t like local AP holders.

A substantial majority of people will use this. Every mommy blogger, vlogger, travel agent, Disney publication will say it’s indispensable. It will be pushed at every turn. After all, what’s 15$ more a day when you’re breaking the bank for the little princess?

It will be standard. If it isn’t, the parks will change to MAKE it standard.

 

[mikejs78]

Which is one big reason they really don’t like local AP holders.

A substantial majority of people will use this. Every mommy blogger, vlogger, travel agent, Disney publication will say it’s indispensable. It will be pushed at every turn. After all, what’s 15$ more a day when you’re breaking the bank for the little princess?

It will be standard. If it isn’t, the parks will change to MAKE it standard.

I think you overestimate the reach of the bloggers/vloggers and even travel agents. Their reach represents a small fraction of WDW's total attendance. Most people who go have very little knowledge of this kind of stuff.

Case in point - a friend of mine (whose pretty knowledgeable about WDW) tells how his brother in law mentioned he was going to Disney in a few weeks. My friend asked him what he had gotten for Fastpasses (this was pre-pandemic). The response? "The blue one".

He was, of course, referring to his Magic band and had no idea about the FastPass program. That's the average Disney guest, and that's with FP+ everywhere.

So already you'll have a ton of people who just won't know about it. Then there's a number of people philosophically opposed to it and won't buy it. Then there's a number of people who just can't afford it.... In any case, I give it 40%, 50 tops.

 

[CastAStone]

Then there's a number of people who just can't afford it.... In any case, I give it 40%, 50 tops.

Yeah, absolutely ceiling. I think less than that.

Lots of people spend lots of money on everything at WDW, but on any one particular thing, most people don’t spend money on it. Most people don’t stay at Deluxe resorts (or even mods), most people don’t do BBB or buy $200 dresses, most people don’t do dessert parties or after parties or water parks or Frontierland Shooting Arcade. Heck most people don’t even buy Mickey Ears.

So the idea that the average guest - a family of 4 with an income in the high five/very low six figures who will go 2 times total before their kids go to college - will spend an extra $420 to have Genie+ every day of their week vacation, no. No way. They might at best dabble in it once. But they’re already splurging to stay onsite at Pop Century or All Star Sports (the majority of on-site hotel rooms are at the values) and it’s just not in the budget.

And then local APs, forget it. Even Disney fanatics will probably buy it for 2-4 days per 7-8 day trip, it’s not necessary many days.

33% is my expectation for the most utilized days. 25% tops most days.

 

[arich35]

Can't wait for this thing to just come out so we can find out how it actually works and the best ways to use it.

 

[flynnibus]

I doubt local AP holders will buy it all the time. Maybe occasionally.

Local visitors are a corner case who should br able to pick their trip dates smartly and of course just skip rides with long lines.

 

[mysto]

I think you overestimate the reach of the bloggers/vloggers and even travel agents.

I think you vastly underestimate the influence of bloggers. Vastly. Buggy whips level.

 

[DisneyDodo]

Also how many people do people think are gonna buy this thing? I’m guessing 20-30%, tops. So the idea things will sell out early is a little bit comical to me.

Even if those percentages are accurate, we have no idea how much capacity they will allocate for LL. It’s possible it will be the same as FP+, in which case G+ users will be able to book a lot of LLs, but it’s also possible the number of slots will be scaled back commensurate with the average reduction in the number of guests using the new system, in which case they will run out as easily as they did before.

 

[Trauma]

Yeah, absolutely ceiling. I think less than that.

Lots of people spend lots of money on everything at WDW, but on any one particular thing, most people don’t spend money on it. Most people don’t stay at Deluxe resorts (or even mods), most people don’t do BBB or buy $200 dresses, most people don’t do dessert parties or after parties or water parks or Frontierland Shooting Arcade. Heck most people don’t even buy Mickey Ears.

So the idea that the average guest - a family of 4 with an income in the high five/very low six figures who will go 2 times total before their kids go to college - will spend an extra $420 to have Genie+ every day of their week vacation, no. No way. They might at best dabble in it once. But they’re already splurging to stay onsite at Pop Century or All Star Sports (the majority of on-site hotel rooms are at the values) and it’s just not in the budget.

And then local APs, forget it. Even Disney fanatics will probably buy it for 2-4 days per 7-8 day trip, it’s not necessary many days.

33% is my expectation for the most utilized days. 25% tops most days.

Huh? Back when I was only making a low 6 figures a year I could easily afford a moderate and to splurge in other areas also.

Im not doubting what your saying, I guess I’m just shocked that I was on the reckless end of the spectrum when it came to spending for that tax bracket.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I think you overestimate the reach of the bloggers/vloggers and even travel agents. Their reach represents a small fraction of WDW's total attendance. Most people who go have very little knowledge of this kind of stuff.

Case in point - a friend of mine (whose pretty knowledgeable about WDW) tells how his brother in law mentioned he was going to Disney in a few weeks. My friend asked him what he had gotten for Fastpasses (this was pre-pandemic). The response? "The blue one".

He was, of course, referring to his Magic band and had no idea about the FastPass program. That's the average Disney guest, and that's with FP+ everywhere.

So already you'll have a ton of people who just won't know about it. Then there's a number of people philosophically opposed to it and won't buy it. Then there's a number of people who just can't afford it.... In any case, I give it 40%, 50 tops.

If they don't know, they will see it on signs as soon as they get in the park. On ads in the busses. On park maps. They'll see people passing them in the Lightning Lane while they wait in standby. Employees will suggest it. If they stay at a Disney hotel, it will be on TV, on posters.

Getting people to buy Genie is Disney's business now. This isn't Express Pass at Uni. This is how they make all the data collection and crowd manipulation projects they've invested in for a decade and a half pay off.

And if the choice is between paying $15 per person per day or not getting to go on a bunch of rides during the trip you're splurging on... they'll pay.

I have absolutely no idea why people think Disney will make this thing optional.

 

[mikejs78]

I think you vastly underestimate the influence of bloggers. Vastly. Buggy whips level.

Let's see. 20 million people visit MK a year.
The top vloggers have much less than a million subscribers, most have far, far less than that.

But let's say the top vloggers reach a million people. That's still only 5% of the annual MK attendance. And most people do not go every year.

 

[Patcheslee]

Huh? Back when I was only making a low 6 figures a year I could easily afford a moderate and to splurge in other areas also.

Im not doubting what your saying, I guess I’m just shocked that I was on the reckless end of the spectrum when it came to spending for that tax bracket.

Depends what cost of living is around you. I'm considered in a low cost of living area with a "high" income just breaking 6 figures. If I tried to live the same in California I'd easily need twice my income.

 

[Waters Back Side]

Depends what cost of living is around you. I'm considered in a low cost of living area with a "high" income just breaking 6 figures. If I tried to live the same in California I'd easily need twice my income.

I'll be spending the same money with Genie + and any chosen IAS rides then any other trip because i will be cutting back elsewhere. I have no choice but to purchase the Genie because I'll be there during the literal busiest week of the year. As far as affording the Genie, I can, but i still would prefer the FP+ and planning.

For us, this time no souvenirs, less expensive dining options etc. The resort and tickets were paid off months ago and if not I would have stayed off site. The other reason I'm on site is because happy kids and happy wife = happy life. They just expect to go on the rides they always have in the past etc.

Disney will take a hit in some areas like dining and length of stays etc because of Genie but people will also buy it at the same time.

 

[doctornick]

Let's see. 20 million people visit MK a year.
The top vloggers have much less than a million subscribers, most have far, far less than that.

But let's say the top vloggers reach a million people. That's still only 5% of the annual WDW attendance. And most people do not go every year.

Yeah. I'm a pretty devoted fan - as witnessed by my being here and posting all the time - and I don't think I've ever watched a vlogger. Quite frankly, I don't have the time or patience to spent time watching a video of people ramble on about Disney.

I can't imagine an infrequent or once in a lifetime guest - which make up the majority of people at WDW on any given day - would even remotely watch or be impacted in any way from such folks. It's a bit of an echo chamber here where those personalities seem to have more prominence that they would "in real life" and their impact is vastly overstated.

More likely it would be a travel agent mentioning that Genie+ is "worth it" as an extra expense, but even there the visitor could tell the travel agent they have a set budget or they need to "keep costs down" or whatever.

 

[SteveAZee]

Because handling 1 constraint at a time is reasonable. But when you are asked to interlock 2-3, and also be at the whim of the whole thing becoming invalid for reasons you don't control (weather, sickness, individuals...) it's stupid and overbearing. It makes a system so rigid that you become a slave to decisions you made in isolation months before vs doing what makes sense now. That's stupid and the core of the problem Disney made worse and worse the more reservations they put into the model, especially with reservations that were hard to secure (scarcity).

Park reservations are dumb - and should go away. It's gonna stick around though because it is Disney putting artificial constraints on everyone because they want to keep dynamic limits on the individual ticket types.

ADRs on their own aren't that bad.. Its when you started having to schedule everything and you had not just 1-2 scarce reservations you were trying to not change for risk of losing it, but things for every day that were too risky to change. That's when the thing collapsed onto itself.

So to summarize... having a small number of reservations you don't want to change and need to work around is fine. You can adapt easily enough without great consequence. But when you have 2-3 systems interlocking, and one change can cause ripple effects and losses elsewhere.. it's a mess.

I agree with the idea that multiple constraints with the old (FP+) was complicated... overly so. Personally, I enjoy solving puzzles and problems, but most people don't. Even then, I found it odd that I felt 'obligated' to anchor ADRs at 180 days, but then FP+ at 60 days and work around the dining, and/or adjust one or the other as needed. Since I'm more 'attraction forward' than 'dining forward', I would have much preferred planning the FP+ plan first and then work the ADRs around that, and for THAT it would have been great to have something like Genie to help out... dump in my preferences for the group into Genie and have it plop out the itinerary for me.... ahead of time. Yes, hiccups happen on 'game day' and that's fine.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I would have much preferred planning the FP+ plan first and then work the ADRs around that, and for THAT it would have been great to have something like Genie to help out... dump in my preferences for the group into Genie and have it plop out the itinerary for me.... ahead of time.

No planning tool will ever be as sophisticated as those of us who like to plan. People like you and I will take whatever Genie spits out and promptly ignore it.

Genie can't even handle my first 20 minutes at Magic Kingdom. Grandma, Mom, Dad, Aunty, and two daughters love Big Thunder. Junior is too small to ride. Everyone loves Splash Mountain but again, Junior is too small to ride. So we all go to Splash and get a rider swap that Grandpa will use to ride later, then everyone except grandpa and Junior ride Splash while Grandpa changes Junior's diaper and blah blah blah blah blah.

 

[SteveAZee]

No planning tool will ever be as sophisticated as those of us who like to plan. People like you and I will take whatever Genie spits out and promptly ignore it.

Genie can't even handle my first 20 minutes at Magic Kingdom. Grandma, Mom, Dad, Aunty, and two daughters love Big Thunder. Junior is too small to ride. Everyone loves Splash Mountain but again, Junior is too small to ride. So we all go to Splash and get a rider swap that Grandpa will use to ride later, then everyone except grandpa and Junior ride Splash while Grandpa changes Junior's diaper and blah blah blah blah blah.

LOL, possibly. If they presented a decent plan I'd still want to tweak it for sure, and if it was laid out with plenty of lead time to do so, that would be great (and then tweaks on game day). Do I think it COULD be done, given current technology, to crunch the problem and spit out reasonable results ahead of time for N guests? Yes. Do I think Disney would put the time, resources, and proper sophistication to make it work and be user friendly? Probably not. As you suggest, each group would have it's set of constraints, so first they'd need to be entered easily and clearly, then some crunching, then an iterative pass or two with the group.... might take place over days, but with plenty of lead time I believe it could be done. Maybe not by Disney, though.

 

[homerdance]

Chapek is awful.
He is "defending" this again..

"... being able to yield that in ways that we haven't done before. And again, the shutdown enabled us a chance to sort of reengineer things and build the systems necessary to do that. "

And for those of you who know Disney, and expect their IT to be crap, this pretty much cements it will be a flaming pile of dog poop:

" Genie is what Genie is when we launch it, but it will continue to become even more and more robust over time."- Bob Chapek.

Chapek Cinemablend

 

[Kamikaze]

Let's see. 20 million people visit MK a year.
The top vloggers have much less than a million subscribers, most have far, far less than that.

But let's say the top vloggers reach a million people. That's still only 5% of the annual MK attendance. And most people do not go every year.

You're not accounting for the same person entering MK multiple times via APs or just multi-day tickets.