Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[el_super]

You haven't been paying attention - they don't want to reduce demand at all. They want as many bodies in the parks as they can get.

The reservation system, price increases and paid Genie+ options would all dispute this. Those all serve to reduce the demand.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

The reservation system, price increases and paid Genie+ options would all dispute this. Those all serve to reduce the demand.

UGH. They don't want to reduce demand.

The reservation system is so that they can staff as few people as possible for the expected demand.
The price increases and Genie+ are to increase revenue.

If you really believe Disney wants to reduce demand at the parks, I've got a bridge to sell you.

 

[Jeff4272]

Bob’s: “MOAR MONEY!!!”
But it’s really the guests that pay it that is the real problem. If people didn’t pay it, they would be forced to change it.

not only are people are paying it, they are selling out a lot of the days

 

[hopemax]

People don’t spend $150 on a ticket to not ride X amount of headliners. Given FP+, that number seems to be 3, before people will even start thinking about riding and being satisfied with anything else. With many people wanting more than 3. So attendance x 3 = minimum amount of daily headliner capacity needed. And if a park is below that, nothing but headliner capacity will help. No matter how much we try to talk our way around it while trying to look “reasonable” in our analysis.

And to add on with another thought. Whatever number X is... this is a function of the admission price. If admission was only $50 a day, more people would be fine with only getting on 1 headliner than if it's $100 a day or $150 a day. Every time Disney raises a price, they increase the demand for headliners. Because then people start thinking, if I am spending that much money I want to get these 6 rides minimum, instead of 3 or 4.

Disney used to determine the minimum of number of experiences for a successful day. It's not good enough anymore, people have changed. It has to be broken down to A. Headliners and B. Total (headliners + other stuff). If B is significantly higher than their expectations for B, maybe then can get away with a lower amount of headliners. But if people can't get A or B... that's when they show up at GS screaming about lines.

 

[UNCgolf]

Me! Because I’ve gone through the other calculations and seen how people react to what is built. My determination is the biggest thing that will get people out of lines for headliners is other headliners. I point to the numbers of Ds& Es in the 70s vs what they have at Epcot and AK. Even MK is a problem because Country Bears and HOP were headliners but now their not. Plus attendance is now so high that the ratio is out of wack. DHS is the park that I would say really needs well executed smaller stuff. Because there are only so many shows you can watch. Dark ride in Animation Courtyard, Muppets actual ride, something down at the end of Sunset Blvd to give people something other than 2 thrill rides.

Finally, look at Universal. Since Hogsmeade opened and their whole game changed they’ve added Kong, Velocicoaster, Hagrid’s, Gringotts, Transformers. These are all D or E. Bourne show upgraded the experience from where it had slipped by Terminator showing its age back up. Upgraded their parade. The changes that weren’t headliner level Fallon and F&F they got creamed for on execution but they weren’t intended as little fill-ins really either based on their virtual queue attempts. They built high capacity, big stuff, and even with the huge Potter growth they kept the parks from unbalancing. Can they keep it up when Disney guests shift over as people are threatening… we’ll see, and we’ll see what type of new things they continue to build.

IMO people are reverse justifying why the additions can’t all be D or E. They *know* Disney won’t build them, so people are trying to justify why they aren’t needed. Same as how others are trying to justify why not building at all is correct. People don’t spend $150 on a ticket to not ride X amount of headliners. Given FP+, that number seems to be 3, before people will even start thinking about riding and being satisfied with anything else. With many people wanting more than 3. So attendance x 3 = minimum amount of daily headliner capacity needed. And if a park is below that, nothing but headliner capacity will help. No matter how much we try to talk our way around it while trying to look “reasonable” in our analysis.

I'm not saying they shouldn't add Es (or Ds) -- they absolutely should. I'm just saying that it would also help to add a bunch of quality Cs. They need more of everything.

 

[techgeek]

UGH. They don't want to reduce demand.

The reservation system is so that they can staff as few people as possible for the expected demand.
The price increases and Genie+ are to increase revenue.

If you really believe Disney wants to reduce demand at the parks, I've got a bridge to sell you.

I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to think that the spreadsheet dictating these decisions came up with a ‘sweet spot’ where profitably is magically maximized somewhere between having operations closed and running them flat out at max capacity / staffing.

Many post-shutdown decisions made by management could be interpreted as attempts to validate and dial that in.

If the wanted to return to ‘fill all available space’, they certainly aren’t acting like it and haven’t since reopening.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I don’t think it’s at all unreasonable to think that the spreadsheet dictating these decisions came up with a ‘sweet spot’ where profitably is magically maximized somewhere between having operations closed and running them flat out at max capacity / staffing.

Many post-shutdown decisions made by management could be interpreted as attempts to validate and dial that in.

If the wanted to return to ‘fill all available space’, they certainly aren’t acting like it and haven’t since reopening.

They're having problems finding bodies to hire.

 

[el_super]

Disney leadership isn't necessarily motivated nor incentivized to address the same concerns as others. They were doing great at what they were incentivized to do... Drive demand and drive guest spending. The fact they can run the bus into the wall or run it well past it's scheduled service isn't really their primary concern. Priority #1 is meeting growth goals.

They are the ones saying that crowding has become an issue, and that people are spending more money when the parks are less crowded. Their motivation here seems to be long term success by tempering demand and improving the guest experience.

The problem is like I said in the past post. "The point is it's not enough when you spent 15years choking off what you already had and your additions are largely constrained themselves in their ability to soak up people."

So yes, 'its not enough' when the things you are doing don't address your problem. People have been talking about adding more capacity - attractions that spit people out in 15-20 mins are limited in their ability to soak up people.

You're right, I am completely biased here in believing that Disney isn't going to build another revolving theater show, or 3D film in 2021. I also doubt if they would even consider another boat ride like Small World after the Navi ride. We've seen way too many of these attractions just languish in the parks with minimal wait times. Capacity that isn't used, isn't really capacity at all.

So in that regard you're right, that I am biased in seeing new attraction development as something along the lines of Tron or Cosmic Rewind, but that's because that is what Disney is actually building.

The important part here is not just cutting them BUT NOT REPLACING THEM. So they literally are compounding their own problem of reducing activities, reducing their people soak capacity, and funneling people together.

The complaint is the reduction in activities people are interested in. Just cutting dead wood doesn't speak to that.

There's a lot of comparisons here to Marvel's box office success though. There are so many people that want to see Marvel movies, that they often end up squeezing out lesser films, as houses dedicate more and more screens to those tent poles.

So the same thing is happening in the parks. There is more and more demand on Space Mountain, Mine Train and Tron, while things like Swiss Family and Hall of Presidents sit empty. Not due to a lack of availability but due to a lack of demand. People in general, increasingly don't want to ride the lesser attractions. That was a problem that Fastpass was trying to solve for, but all it did was put more pressure on the top tier attractions.

So how would adding more attractions people don't want going to solve anything?

People can't run at full sensory overload at all times. People can't run at full physical exertion at all times. People don't focus on just one person in their party at all times.

I agree in principal, but I think that's fundamentally what is/has changed here. People ARE running at full capacity for longer in their stay. They are hyper planning and prioritizing to ensure they are getting the maximum yield on their time in the park. That means making sure they are maximizing the number of E tickets they ride in a day. We all saw this years ago with the Fastpass hackers (esp at Disneyland) that found every single way to obtain multiple Fastpasses for multiple rides all day long.

Things like Touring Plans and Fastpass+ and soon Genie were all being designed to cater to the group that wanted to get the most out of the day (which reads as, the top tier attractions). Remember how dismissive people were when Genie kept recommending the Carousel?

It's a different audience today.

You do realize people bought individual tickets right? The ticket books were just the discount purchase model.

Sure, but there were financial penalties to just riding the most popular attractions over and over. That curbed the demand. If they introduced per-ride-pricing back into the parks, they could control demand to the point that the crowding wouldn't be an issue anymore. People would still complain though.

non sequitur - Those attractions do not NEED to 'generate the same level of demand as something like a roller coaster or whatever-new-technology system' -- They need to generate enough demand to keep them busy and effective in their role in the park.

Yeah, and I am saying, generally, they can't really do that any longer either. That's why they're not getting built.

Disneyland has more physical space crowd issues than it does 'so busy I didn't get to ride anything DHS' issues. Disneyland's crowd problems were more operational/infrastructure ... issues like surges in parking, uneven demand, etc.. shaped more by the visiting patterns of large amounts of APs - not just crushing crowds.

Yes, because you'll find the wait at Space Mountain at DL will be lower than at MK on average and most of the time. Your comparison is not accurate.

Because Genie+ pricing at Disneyland is being set to cope with the legacy Maxpass situation and differences in photopass infrastructure.

I think you lost the bigger picture here. Yeah Disneyland had different demand profiles, and different attraction rosters and yeah, certainly DHS is in far worse shape than Disneyland. The bigger point though is: Disneyland still had people complaining about long lines. Disneyland still had crowding issues. Disneyland still had Fastpass. Disneyland will have Genie+.

It's one thing to say that people will wait 127 minutes for Space Mountain at Disneyland versus 149 at Magic Kingdom, but it doesn't make the 127 minute wait feel any better when you are stuck in it.

 

[el_super]

UGH. They don't want to reduce demand.

The reservation system is so that they can staff as few people as possible for the expected demand.
The price increases and Genie+ are to increase revenue.

If you really believe Disney wants to reduce demand at the parks, I've got a bridge to sell you.

So you think that Disney implemented reservations and paid Fastpass without any notion that it would decrease demand?

So many people here have been suggesting that Disney will be hurt long term by decreasing in demand due to X, but now you want to suggest the opposite is true? They are hurting their business because they think it will increase attendance? This is wacky.

 

[el_super]

At what point are you going to understand that crowding is relative? Or do you need to continue the confusion?

It is a discussion of a crowd management solution after all. You think Genie+ is going to fail?

 

[UNCgolf]

I also doubt if they would even consider another boat ride like Small World after the Navi ride.

Navi gets tremendously long wait times -- it's generally over an hour and sometimes close to two. That's the main reason people don't like it; it's not a ride that can compare favorably to the wait. If it was in a park with more attractions, it wouldn't get such long waits, and I think the reception would be better.

I think it's a great C ticket and I wish they'd build more like it.

 

[hopemax]

You're right, I am completely biased here in believing that Disney isn't going to build another revolving theater show, or 3D film in 2021. I also doubt if they would even consider another boat ride like Small World after the Navi ride. We've seen way too many of these attractions just languish in the parks with minimal wait times. Capacity that isn't used, isn't really capacity at all.

Does Navi have empty seats? Frozen? Even the much maligned Mermaid has wait times other than the first hour and after dinner. They may not be an hour wait, but if the actual goal is to fill all the seats while people are waiting as little as possible... A 5 minute line but no empty ride vehicles is still fully used capacity.

So you think that Disney implemented reservations and paid Fastpass without any notion that it would decrease demand?

So many people here have been suggesting that Disney will be hurt long term by decreasing in demand due to X, but now you want to suggest the opposite is true? They are hurting their business because they think it will increase attendance? This is wacky.

I think Disney wants to decrease demand on specific days, not overall. If they have 5 days at 35K and 2 days at 65K, they would rather have 7 days at 50K. An increase in demand of 45K. Even though now there are 2 days with lowered demand.

But people may not play that way. So they could still hurt their overall demand if the 5 days stay at 35K and now they've decreased the 2 days from 65K to 50K.

 

[flynnibus]

They are the ones saying that crowding has become an issue, and that people are spending more money when the parks are less crowded. Their motivation here seems to be long term success by tempering demand and improving the guest experience.

Ehh.. you had it in your first line 'money' - None of their moves are about improving experience, they are about maximizing YIELD. The crowd shaping spiel was lip service. They had the hot hand, knew they could charge more... and when they reach the point of slowing clicks, they simply point to YIELD and guest spending. It's all about pricing - not improving satisfaction. It was more about avoiding a hit to the bottom line.

So in that regard you're right, that I am biased in seeing new attraction development as something along the lines of Tron or Cosmic Rewind, but that's because that is what Disney is actually building.

Right now.. but mixed in are also
Space Restaurant
Moana
Harmonius
France Expansion
Play
Moana play

If you are going to focus on E-tickets and then use it as a strawman - you can just stop here. No one is arguing for what you are tearing down but you.

So the same thing is happening in the parks. There is more and more demand on Space Mountain, Mine Train and Tron, while things like Swiss Family and Hall of Presidents sit empty. Not due to a lack of availability but due to a lack of demand. People in general, increasingly don't want to ride the lesser attractions. That was a problem that Fastpass was trying to solve for, but all it did was put more pressure on the top tier attractions.

So how would adding more attractions people don't want going to solve anything?

Because your strawman is obvious. Theme parks aren't moving to all e-tickets. People are not going to stop being entertained by things not e-tickets. Your hypothesis is wrong.

I agree in principal, but I think that's fundamentally what is/has changed here. People ARE running at full capacity for longer in their stay. They are hyper planning and prioritizing to ensure they are getting the maximum yield on their time in the park. That means making sure they are maximizing the number of E tickets they ride in a day. We all saw this years ago with the Fastpass hackers (esp at Disneyland) that found every single way to obtain multiple Fastpasses for multiple rides all day long.

I've already elaborated on Disney's building of the park commando long before this - Disney is conditioning people to RUSH through their days to hit as many checkboxes as before. But that doesn't mean people don't enjoy a good meal or don't want to see Mickey or a parade. Theme parks aren't moving to all e-tickets. People are not going to stop being entertained by things not e-tickets. Your hypothesis is wrong.

Yeah, and I am saying, generally, they can't really do that any longer either. That's why they're not getting built.

Theme parks aren't moving to all e-tickets. People are not going to stop being entertained by things not e-tickets. Your hypothesis is wrong.

I think you lost the bigger picture here.

No, I just proved your postulate wrong - not my fault your claim wasn't on target.

Yeah Disneyland had different demand profiles, and different attraction rosters and yeah, certainly DHS is in far worse shape than Disneyland. The bigger point though is: Disneyland still had people complaining about long lines. Disneyland still had crowding issues. Disneyland still had Fastpass. Disneyland will have Genie+.

This just in... Disneyland is still popular. But know what, it ain't broke.. and it does things like actually stay open past 9pm.

 

[el_super]

Ehh.. you had it in your first line 'money' - None of their moves are about improving experience, they are about maximizing YIELD. The crowd shaping spiel was lip service. They had the hot hand, knew they could charge more... and when they reach the point of slowing clicks, they simply point to YIELD and guest spending. It's all about pricing - not improving satisfaction. It was more about avoiding a hit to the bottom line.

There's obviously some give or take there. We've seen it with the AP reservations at Disneyland. They blocked people from making reservations, the media picked up the stink over it, and they were forced to open things back up. Now the park is getting pretty packed again.

It all leads to the scary realization none of us want to really address: that whatever the park experience is, people would still rather pay just to be there, then to have a great experience (in the classic sense). Pricing is a more of a negative to the overall guest perception than the long wait times are. So it's best to keep the place cheap and accessible.

Right now.. but mixed in are also
Space Restaurant
Moana
Harmonius
France Expansion
Play
Moana play

If you are going to focus on E-tickets and then use it as a strawman - you can just stop here. No one is arguing for what you are tearing down but you.

Well EPCOT is going through a bit of a reimagining. But it is kind of funny that in a thread where people keep insisting they need more attractions to fix "the problem," they keep pointing out that Disney is actually building a lot of attractions.

And yet somehow it's never enough.

I've already elaborated on Disney's building of the park commando long before this - Disney is conditioning people to RUSH through their days to hit as many checkboxes as before. But that doesn't mean people don't enjoy a good meal or don't want to see Mickey or a parade. Theme parks aren't moving to all e-tickets. People are not going to stop being entertained by things not e-tickets. Your hypothesis is wrong.

OK great, so once they add the parades back to MK, the crowding problems will be solved once and for all!

 

[Jrb1979]

WOW.

ANY line-skipping system is going to fail because they don't have enough hourly capacity to meet demand. You can keep trying to twist the problem into a pretzel as much as you want - the root problem is that they want the parks jammed with people, but don't have the hourly capacity to allow that to happen without guests being miserable and stopping coming. All they're doing with "new systems" (which aren't really new to begin with, they're each just a different spin) is delaying the inevitable.

I agree that any line-skipping system is going to fail but not solely due to lack of capacity. The biggest reason no system works at Disney is how it's implemented. Skip the line systems really only when availability is limited. The less people that have it the better it works.

 

[Ayla]

I have a question about purchasing a ticket and adding Genie+.

I am buying my Mother a Disney ticket for Christmas for our upcoming Spring trip. Do I need to add Genie+ when I purchase the ticket (I am not sure if they will be using it, but will know for sure by the time I purchase it).

The ticket will probably be a 4 day ticket and is there a benefit to adding Genie+ at the time of purchase versus buying each day? To me, it seems easier to add at the time of purchase, just to bypass the extra step before 7am.

(Unfortunately, I control her MDE, so I'll be the one having to do all the Genie+ stuff for her each day, even though I won't be in any of the parks. )

ETA: I know if I purchase with ticket, I have to add it for all days of ticket, vs buying it each day while there.

Anyone?

 

[flynnibus]

And yet somehow it's never enough.

Because you keep hiding from the simple point.... When you take away 5 and give back 2.. you are still behind. You can't point at the 2 and ignore the net result... but that's what you keep doing in your argument claiming "they are adding attractions, why isn't it enough?" - Because giving 2 when you are down 5 is still in the hole.

DHS, EPCOT, and MK all today STILL have major attraction spaces that are shuttered (or simply filled with junk just to be open) that were operating and popular in years past when Disney had less attendance than they did in 2019.

 

[Jrb1979]

There's obviously some give or take there. We've seen it with the AP reservations at Disneyland. They blocked people from making reservations, the media picked up the stink over it, and they were forced to open things back up. Now the park is getting pretty packed again.

It all leads to the scary realization none of us want to really address: that whatever the park experience is, people would still rather pay just to be there, then to have a great experience (in the classic sense). Pricing is a more of a negative to the overall guest perception than the long wait times are. So it's best to keep the place cheap and accessible.





Well EPCOT is going through a bit of a reimagining. But it is kind of funny that in a thread where people keep insisting they need more attractions to fix "the problem," they keep pointing out that Disney is actually building a lot of attractions.

And yet somehow it's never enough.



OK great, so once they add the parades back to MK, the crowding problems will be solved once and for all!

Crowding is an issue that will never be solved. The problem is that every park outside of MK doesn't have enough to do to disperse the crowds.

 

[flynnibus]

Do I need to add Genie+ when I purchase the ticket

No

The ticket will probably be a 4 day ticket and is there a benefit to adding Genie+ at the time of purchase versus buying each day?

No - just convenience when you decide to buy.

 

[JoeCamel]

I agree that any line-skipping system is going to fail but not solely due to lack of capacity. The biggest reason no system works at Disney is how it's implemented. Skip the line systems really only when availability is limited. The less people that have it the better it works.

The problem with charging $150 for unlimited FP on top of park admission is just what you said "less people will buy it" and the lucky guest that does will get lots of rides.
That is not the goal of LL or G+. Disney wants more money so selling expensive passes to a few people is much less money than selling a dubious perk to the masses. They are about the profit not the experience.