Crowds have increased with attendance. I have seen no evidence that they would be any better without a FP-style system.
Increased crowds are definitely an issue. Overbuilding DVC has added to the problem, but the heart of the issue is the lack of expansion in the parks themselves. The parks as “machines” were designed to keep people happy by moving them through the experience efficiently. But today, those machines are simply too small to handle the ever-growing population of people that wants to use them.
As others have asserted before, the total number— and variety— of rides and attractions needs to be increased significantly across all 4 parks.
Building only E-tickets doesn’t solve the problem. Smaller experiences (Cranium Command, Food Rocks, Dreamflight, Country Bears are examples) need to be balanced into the mix to provide variety and emotional ebb and flow as well as capacity. Instead of expansion, the parks have in many cases remained stagnant in terms of adding capacity, and in some cases (Epcot) capacity and number of attractions have actually decreased.
Disneyland has an awesome attraction lineup— but is cursed with tiny public spaces. WDW’s Magic Kingdom was built with amazing wide spaces to handle the crowds— but suffers from an anemic attraction count.
Imagine how amazing it would be if we could have the best of both worlds.
But instead of solving the problem, Disney continues to roll out line skipping and crowd management “band-aids” such as FP and now Genie+.
I said at the time and still believe that New Fantasyland was a huge missed opportunity. The space behind Mine Train should have included four to six additional C-ticket dark rides— think Toad, Alice and Pinocchio from DL as comparable if not literal examples— to handle the increased crowds and provide a more complete and varied experience. Instead we got a single dark ride, and during the same time span, an increasingly neglected Tomorrowland that replaced Alien Encounter, Timekeeper and an enjoyable and walk-on Dreamflight with the far inferior and now closed Stitch, an off-theme Comedy Club attraction, and a crowded, dirty and woefully neglected Buzz ride. Tron is coming but will be another overcrowded headliner that’s taken far too many years to build.
The elephant in the room is definitely capacity, but time and again the approach taken to try to address the issue (through line-skipping and crowd management schemes which have now been re-engineered to generate direct profit) has been misguided and woefully inadequate.