Len Testa - “Disney positions itself as the all-American vacation. The irony is that most Americans can’t afford it.”

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The BEST food by far of all the cruise lines that I have been on is Virgin. Hands down the best. everything is made fresh, including in their "buffet". You actually order what you want at either a station or from a menu and it's made fresh.

Pam

I’ve heard those are great.

We looked at one right after they launched and it didn’t link up…but I’d like to try it at some point

 

[Miss Bella]

My first on Royal was Adventure, but I did Symphony (we had 27 staterooms on that sailing), Wonder of the Seas (30 staterooms for our group cruise) a couple of times and I was just on Star of the Seas for the pre-inaugural. I know there's more but my brain is tired after the day I had lol
I am a huge fan of the big ships though. I have been on all of the Disney ships multiple times. I am not a fan of the Wish, at all. I did love the Treasure though and I will be on the Destiny in Nov, which I am really looking forward to.
Also, I love the Edge Class ships on Celebrity!!

Pam

You mean you are allowed to like DCL and like other cruise lines? Don't tell me you like Universal too.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The specialty restaurants on royal are really good! I already have Chops Grill & Giovannis booked for our cruise next year. I just had clients that did Venice, an 11 night cruise on Celebrity and ended with a 5 night stay in Istanbul.

Pam

I’m a little disappointed they gave up on wonderland…

But on ovation last year we were the only ones in there

Must be too “experimental” for the landlubbers?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You mean you are allowed to like DCL and like other cruise lines? Don't tell me you like Universal too.

Yeah…it’s like when Captain Kirk crosses “the final frontier”

My criticism for Disney is not on the cruise itself…it’s the value isn’t there. It will be interesting to see as they rush ships out if they are forced to reduce the prices down to 2X retail?

 

[Kingdom Konsultant]

Ocean Liners on Celebrity was the best meal not on land I’ve ever had…I think it’s called something else now?

And food is always the highlight of my trips…99% of the time

It's now Tuscan Grill

Pam

 

[Kingdom Konsultant]

I’m a little disappointed they gave up on wonderland…

But on ovation last year we were the only ones in there

Must be too “experimental” for the landlubbers?

My daughter and I checked it out when we did the pre-inaugural on Wonder of the Seas, and we thought it looked cool. I did not eat there since my family is quite picky when we did the group cruise on it in 2023.

Pam

 

[Kingdom Konsultant]

I’ve heard those are great.

We looked at one right after they launched and it didn’t link up…but I’d like to try it at some point

I want to get out on another one myself. I have toyed with doing a group on one of their ships.

Pam

 

[Kingdom Konsultant]

You mean you are allowed to like DCL and like other cruise lines? Don't tell me you like Universal too.

I have been booking other destinations and cruise lines for years. The agency still books a ton of DCL, but we actually book a tremendous amount of other cruise lines too. I like Universal, but my favorite thing to do is cruise.

Pam

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

My daughter and I checked it out when we did the pre-inaugural on Wonder of the Seas, and we thought it looked cool. I did not eat there since my family is quite picky when we did the group cruise on it in 2023.

Pam

I think we were four times on 3 different ships? With teenagers for a couple.

They went with it. Everything is very good…if a little strange at times

 

[monothingie]

I already have Chops Grill & Giovannis booked for our cruise next year.

Am I the +1?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Are you doing a river cruise or ocean cruise?

The British isles is an ocean cruise but we’re doing a Viking River cruise next December out of Budapest, seeing the Christmas Markets, that will be our first ever river cruise. We added the post cruise extension to go see Neuschwanstein castle also, Disney may have lost most of our vacation dollars but we’re still Disney people at heart.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The British isles is an ocean cruise but we’re doing a Virgin River cruise next December out of Budapest, seeing the Christmas Markets, that will be our first ever river cruise. We added the post cruise extension to go see Neuschwanstein castle also, Disney may have lost most of our vacation dollars but we’re still Disney people at heart.

That sounds frikkin awesome

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

That sounds frikkin awesome

Yeah, we are super excited, adding Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, Ireland, Wales, and Scotland to our “been to” list next year.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Going back to the original article, I thought this study by Pew on income distribution in the US since WDW opened in 1971 is interesting as a piece of the puzzle.

Basically, what you see is that the share of Americans in the upper income bracket increased from 11 to 19% between 1971 and 2023, while those in the middle income bracket fell from 61% to 51%. More importantly, the share of total household income during this time grew even faster:

You would also have to look at other things such as disposable income and how increased costs of living have hit people in different income brackets. However, you have a pretty clear trend in the distribution of household income which makes it less head-scratching why Disney is not as interested in pitching their products to a group that has 43% of national household income than they were when it represented 62% of national household income. Again, that is before you even get into who actually has disposable income for vacations, which I suspect makes that shift even clearer.

 

[wannabeBelle]

The British isles is an ocean cruise but we’re doing a Viking River cruise next December out of Budapest, seeing the Christmas Markets, that will be our first ever river cruise. We added the post cruise extension to go see Neuschwanstein castle also, Disney may have lost most of our vacation dollars but we’re still Disney people at heart.

I did the River Cruise out of Budapest down through Slovakia, Austria and into Germany for the Christmas Markets, absolutely incredible trip, you will love it!! Marie

 

[monothingie]

You would also have to look at other things such as disposable income and how increased costs of living have hit people in different income brackets. However, you have a pretty clear trend in the distribution of household income which makes it less head-scratching why Disney is not as interested in pitching their products to a group that has 43% of national household income than they were when it represented 62% of national household income. Again, that is before you even get into who actually has disposable income for vacations, which I suspect makes that shift even clearer.

Attendance doesn't matter to Disney. They've made it clear they want fewer guests so long as they spend more, and Disney boasts about per guest spending because it is (for the time being) the only metric going in their favor. Their obsession with the high margin guest sacrifices the long term viability of their guest base because it is completely unsustainable.

There isn't a sufficient enough group of high spending guests to carry things. You see this with the low attendance right now. People (across all income levels) are choosing to go elsewhere. Additionally with all the price increases, it has further consolidated the upper income guests.

Disney needs ALL guests, not just the ones buying Premier Passes or VIP Tours because every move to attract higher margin guests drives away the others and it shifts the burden of profitability to a smaller and smaller segment that has many more leisure options at their disposal.

Park attendance is a trailing indicator for this because travel plans are made months ahead of time. The continued growing softening of demand over the past 2 years should be horrifying for anyone paying attention. Covering it up by saying the per guest spending is great, only works...until it doesn't.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Attendance doesn't matter to Disney. They've made it clear they want fewer guests so long as they spend more, and Disney boasts about per guest spending because it is (for the time being) the only metric going in their favor. Their obsession with the high margin guest sacrifices the long term viability of their guest base because it is completely unsustainable.

There isn't a sufficient enough group of high spending guests to carry things. You see this with the low attendance right now. People (across all income levels) are choosing to go elsewhere. Additionally with all the price increases, it has further consolidated the upper income guests.

Disney needs ALL guests, not just the ones buying Premier Passes or VIP Tours because every move to attract higher margin guests drives away the others and it shifts the burden of profitability to a smaller and smaller segment that has many more leisure options at their disposal.

Park attendance is a trailing indicator for this because travel plans are made months ahead of time. The continued growing softening of demand over the past 2 years should be horrifying for anyone paying attention. Covering it up by saying the per guest spending is great, only works...until it doesn't.

I think people want all of this to be true, but I don't know that it is. For example, there is nothing that suggests the trend toward greater concentration of wealth in the upper income bracket relative to the middle income bracket is going to change anytime soon. So, if anything, the economic incentives to pitch their product to this group may increase along with their relative share of the national income.

It is also less clear to me that we're seeing low attendance right now. My impression is more that it is stagnant for Disney and Universal with perhaps a slight decline, but not that it is low. Compared to any year in the 1990s, for example, it would probably be considered a record-breaking year for WDW. So, is that really not viable if those who are attending are paying increasing amounts and their ability to do so will also likely continue to increase?

None of this comes from a place of being happy about what is happening, but rather trying to be open eyed about it and understanding why it is happening.

 

[monothingie]

I think people want all of this to be true, but I don't know that it is. For example, there is nothing that suggests the trend toward greater concentration of wealth in the upper income bracket relative to the middle income bracket is going to change anytime soon. So, if anything, the economic incentives to pitch their product to this group may increase along with their relative share of the national income.

It is also less clear to me that we're seeing low attendance right now. My impression is more that it is stagnant for Disney and Universal with perhaps a slight decline, but not that it is low. Compared to any year in the 1990s, for example, it would probably be considered a record-breaking year for WDW. So, is that really not viable if those who are attending are paying increasing amounts and their ability to do so will also likely continue to increase?

None of this comes from a place of being happy about what is happening, but rather trying to be open eyed about it and understanding why it is happening.

Upper income families and individuals have the option to travel and go many more places than WDW. The majority of WDW guests don't stay on property or are locals and these groups have been essentially kicked to the curb.

Use Las Vegas as a comparison. Similar to Central Florida, Vegas has had massive continuing development over the course of the last 2 decades, with constant focus on the higher margin adult guest. But Vegas is floundering because they passed over the general mass audience. Disney is following down the same path. Do broader economic factors contribute, absolutely, but once you loose a guest, it's very difficult to get them back.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

Compared to any year in the 1990s, for example, it would probably be considered a record-breaking year for WDW.

Keep in mind the most of the 90's had a lot less developed park space.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Upper income families and individuals have the option to travel and go many more places than WDW. The majority of WDW guests don't stay on property or are locals and these groups have been essentially kicked to the curb.

Use Las Vegas as a comparison. Similar to Central Florida, Vegas has had massive continuing development over the course of the last 2 decades, with constant focus on the higher margin adult guest. But Vegas is floundering because they passed over the general mass audience. Disney is following down the same path. Do broader economic factors contribute, absolutely, but once you loose a guest, it's very difficult to get them back.

Disney obviously has to continue to offer a product that is appealing to those with the money to enjoy it and can certainly screw that up. Maybe they already are. However, I don't see how you can make a clear case that Disney needs to continue focusing on a consumer group that is declining both in terms of relative size and income versus another that is only likely to continue becoming more lucrative.

Thinking back to the article that sparked this thread, you can clearly see that Disney still provides avenues for those in the middle income bracket to experience WDW. Presumably, with greater capacity they can also provide more avenues to appeal to this audience. If you were running the company, though, would you really look at the numbers and say "we need to focus on this demographic that is declining in almost every respect"?