Largest test to date of MyMagic+ will use all features including guest use of the MagicBand

[Todd H]

Ugh. I think Cosmic Commando summed it up best:

Planning your next WDW vacation:

Planning your next Uni vacation:

 

[Tim Lohr]

Unfortunately, FastPass+ (FP+) probably will increase the length of Standby lines. Please find below a copy of one of my posts from January that summarizes how FP+ could impact lines.

FP+ seems to be changing Fastpass (FP) in ways that will make Standby lines longer. To understand this, it is necessary to understand a little bit about queuing and the current FP system.

A queue, more commonly called a line in the U.S., is basically a bunch of people standing around waiting for something. We experience queues every day, whether it is waiting to be served at a restaurant or waiting for a traffic light to change. Essentially, it occurs anytime we wait for something we want now.

Lines form when demand exceeds supply. In WDW’s case, “supply” corresponds to each attraction’s capacity, typically measured in terms of how many people can experience the attraction in an hour. For an attraction such as Peter Pan's Flight, its capacity (i.e. supply) might be 1200 guests/hour. A line for Peter Pan forms if more than 1200 guests want to ride it in an hour. The people wanting to ride Peter Pan correspond to its “demand”. The “price” of an attraction can be measured in terms of how long people are willing to wait to experience the attraction. As the line increases, the percentage of people willing to pay the price (i.e. wait in line longer) decreases. Nearly everyone might be willing to wait 5 minutes to ride Peter Pan but people will walk away if the wait time is 2 hours.

When introduced in 1999, FP changed the dynamics of the normal line by creating a second, preferred line. With a FP ticket in hand, you could skip what Disney began calling the “Standby” line and experience an attraction much quicker. However, FP did not increase capacity; it only changed how the wait time was distributed. People with FP tickets waited less. People in Standby lines waited more. Consider the following simplistic example.

Let’s assume, on average, 100 people wait 10 minutes for an attraction. The total wait time for everyone is 1000 minutes.

What a preferred line does is reduce the wait time for some people by making other people wait longer. In this simplified example, if a preferred line reduces the wait time for 50 to 5 minutes, then it increases the wait time for the remaining 50 to 15 minutes. The total wait time doesn’t change, only the wait time of the individuals in the two lines. For people in the FP line, their waits become shorter. For people in the Standby line, their waits become longer.

FP+ does not increase capacities of attractions. The capacities remain fixed. Therefore, like FP, FP+ does not shorten total wait time. It only changes how long individuals wait in the two separate lines.

The latest information suggests Disney intends to provide each guest with 3 FP+ experiences. Since the Magic Kingdom’s (MK) average attendance is over 46,000 per day and significantly more during busier periods, MK has to have over 200,000 FP+ experiences for many days. Disney realizes its current supply of MK FP experiences will not meet this demand. Therefore, Disney is increasing the supply of FP+ by adding FP+ to experiences that previously did not have FP.

As occurred when FP was created, adding preferred lines to attractions without increasing capacity means people in Standby lines wait longer. As a result, the first change we can expect from FP+ is that Standby lines will grow longer for attractions that are being added to FP+.

A second change in Standby lines should occur because of how Disney intends to distribute FP+. Previously, Disney did not distribute FP with return times for the first 40-to-60 minutes after park opening. As a result, Standby lines remained relatively short and it was possible to ride several attractions immediately after park opening.

To date, preliminary testing suggests Disney intends to change this policy with FP+. Rather than being able to schedule FP+ experiences to begin (for example) one hour after park opening, it appears Disney intends to allow guests to schedule FP+ experiences immediately after park opening. FP+ lines will form more quickly than in the past and the Standby lines will grow longer earlier as a result.

Putting these together, it seems FP+ could have the following impact on Standby lines:

1. Standby lines for attractions without FP where FP+ is added will grow longer.
2. Standby lines for attractions with FP will grow longer earlier in the morning.

Once FP+ is fully operational, it will be interesting if Disney makes further changes. For example, if Disney distributes more FP+ for existing FP attractions (effectively shifting ride capacity from Standby to FP+ lines), then those Standby lines will become longer. Conversely, if Disney distributes fewer FP+ (making the remaining FP+ more “valuable”), then those Standby lines will become shorter.


FP+ is sure to change how you experience WDW but perhaps not in ways you are going to like.

I'm going to try and keep this as simple as I can here... but the way current system works, whether it be FP lines or Stand-By lines is basically like a giant bath tub with the drain closed off. When the park opens in the morning people begin pouring into the place, so the park/rides are the bath tub in this scenario, opening the gates/FP machines is like turning on the faucet, and the people who enter are the water

In the morning, when the crowds are relatively low, the bath tub has no problem containing and dealing with that fairly low amount of people, but the problem is that the faucet stays wide open all day long, and the water level constantly rises throughout the day. By mid day the bath tub starts to over flow, and by 5pm or so, the people in the Stand by lines are drowning in the 2 hour waits for popular rides like Soarin', while the people who got a Soarin' fast pass at 12 noon, that says come back 5pm, have basically been standing in a 5 hour line all day

From what I've seen of these tests of FP+, they break the day up in to 3 different blocks of time. The on-line scheduling first asks "when do you plan on visiting the park? Morning? Afternoon? or Evening?" and then you pick then rides you want to see during those particular hours. This is basically like opening the drain on the bath tub every 5 hours or so, and "should" keep the current morning crowd levels consistent all day long. The morning people will get to enter the park, ride the FP rides they want to see, so then the afternoon people can come in, and then the evening people. It's a way of regulating the flow of people into the tub, which the current FP system doesn't do... whether or not this will work or not is anybody's guess, that's probably the reason they keep having these tests of it over and over again, but the theory behind it makes sense to me

As far as "supply and demand" goes, they can't really control demand, but they can adjust the supply. By supplying the Fast Pass option to everything in the park, and limiting the supply of actual Fast Passes to 3 per person, they're basically making the bath tub bigger and turning down the faucet. The in demand rides are still going to be in demand, but you won't have and endless supply of FPs to all of them anymore. You won't have the ability to get a FP for Space Mt., Splash Mt., and Big Thunder anymore, you'll only be able to choose 1, but limiting the number of people in each of those the FP line should make the Stand-by line move more quickly. Inversely, adding the FP option to things that aren't so in demand isn't going to create a demand for them. Adding the FP to something like Carrousel of Progress, isn't going to suddenly make it more popular or in demand

In all honesty though, this whole thing seem to me like a very elaborate, round-about way of getting rid of FP, with out "officially" getting rid of it. If everything now has a FP option but you only get 3 of them, everyone is going to be spending a lot more time in the stand-by line, and I think this may be the reason they spent a Billion dollars on adding toys and game in each line, so that went the FP dose kind of go away, hopefully people won't miss it so much

 

[RandomPrincess]

Except that you can still get a regular FP for PPF, which is the only way I'd ride on that over-rated thing.

From everything I have read it doesn't seem like regular FPs will be available at all once this is fully rolled out.

 

[lazyboy97o]

From what I've seen of these tests of FP+, they break the day up in to 3 different blocks of time. The on-line scheduling first asks "when do you plan on visiting the park? Morning? Afternoon? or Evening?" and then you pick then rides you want to see during those particular hours. This is basically like opening the drain on the bath tub every 5 hours or so, and "should" keep the current morning crowd levels consistent all day long. The morning people will get to enter the park, ride the FP rides they want to see, so then the afternoon people can come in, and then the evening people. It's a way of regulating the flow of people into the tub, which the current FP system doesn't do... whether or not this will work or not is anybody's guess, that's probably the reason they keep having these tests of it over and over again, but the theory behind it makes sense to me

As far as "supply and demand" goes, they can't really control demand, but they can adjust the supply. By supplying the Fast Pass option to everything in the park, and limiting the supply of actual Fast Passes to 3 per person, they're basically making the bath tub bigger and turning down the faucet. The in demand rides are still going to be in demand, but you won't have and endless supply of FPs to all of them anymore. You won't have the ability to get a FP for Space Mt., Splash Mt., and Big Thunder anymore, you'll only be able to choose 1, but limiting the number of people in each of those the FP line should make the Stand-by line move more quickly. Inversely, adding the FP option to things that aren't so in demand isn't going to create a demand for them. Adding the FP to something like Carrousel of Progress, isn't going to suddenly make it more popular or in demand

Increasing FastPass capacity does not increase overall capacity, so the "tub" is not getting bigger and the faucet is not "turned down" because there is no control on when people enter.

 

[flynnibus]

Increasing FastPass capacity does not increase overall capacity, so the "tub" is not getting bigger and the faucet is not "turned down" because there is no control on when people enter.

The analogy is full of holes (no pun intended) but I think he was TRYING to say the tub was the FP capacity.. but the tub should really be the Ride capacity.. which as you note is fixed. And the rate of people (the faucet) is a poor because it doesn't account for the tolerance for wait which also impacts 'demand'

The water in the bucket is a good analogy to explain how demand vs capacity create a line.. but how he tried to extend it.. it was all washed up

 

[RunOrlando]

A couple of points to consider for AP holders.

First, FP+ might be subject to the same limitations as ADRs. If you don't book 180 days out, the "good" ADRs tend to be gone. Similarly, it might be that if you don't book your FP+ experiences 60 days out, you could be out-of-luck getting the "good" FP+. Still, we don't know exactly how FP+ will work so this is just speculation.

Second, Disney's Terms & Conditions page indicates it will be possible to change or even cancel FP+ experiences. Depending on how it works, I can imagine AP holders keeping a "rolling" series of FP+ reservations. For example, let's assume an AP holder only visits on weekends, they could, for example, make reservations 60 days out for Saturday & Sunday, hold onto those and, one week later, make reservations for the next Saturday & Sunday, etc., until they use up their allotment. Then, simply cancel upcoming FP+ once they are sure that they won't go on specific dates. The idea is to make sure the entire allotment of FP+ reservations are being "used", and then cancelling these, as needed, the day before for days that won't be used. I know I'm not explaining it well but, in a nutshell, have a running set of FP+ reservations for the days you think you are most likely going to visit WDW.

That's quite a bit to follow.

I may not have fully understand, but the idea of having to book a ride 60 days out is very off putting. The reason I have an AP is so that I can go to WDW on a whim. If I get up early one morning and go online to see the rides I want to visit are booked, I probably wouldn't go to the parks, and if that continued I wouldn't renew my pass.

After reading all the posts in this thread I don't know if anyone fully understands how this policy works, and I don't think Disney has a firm grasp on how they will handle this either.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Things are really moving forward on deploying MyMagic+. Details on the upcoming test now at http://www.wdwmagic.com/other/mymag...ures-including-guest-use-of-the-magicband.htm

It really is interesting that they're continuing to test this while still allowing day of Fastpass usage. I think they're going to have cut the #s from 3 down to 2 (MK) or 1 (all other parks).

 

[RSoxNo1]

I still want unique tops for all paper Fastpasses, enough of this generic paper crap. #MissingThePoint

 

[lazyboy97o]

I still want unique tops for all paper Fastpasses, enough of this generic paper crap. #MissingThePoint

But then they will have to raise ticket prices because they just can't afford that great expense.

 

[Sneezy62]

It really is interesting that they're continuing to test this while still allowing day of Fastpass usage.

That's what I thought, sounds like they are still testing the tech and not so much the user experience. That and maybe they don't find enough willing participants if it's an either or situation. I wonder how long they'll go before they say "OK T&C is now in effect and it's FP+ or FP not both.

 

[alissafalco]

I wish people would feel this kind of bitterness about the wasteful spending in Washington....ok off soapbox

We do, but this is a Disney site so we will stick to Disney talk not politics, that's for another site.

 

[lego606]

I still want unique tops for all paper Fastpasses, enough of this generic paper crap. #MissingThePoint

Thank you for visiting Disney Park Florida. Here is your Disney Park Florida Attraction 43 FastPass Ticket(TM)

 

[MickeyPeace]

Look for the new in room vid of Stacy where her high energy enthusiasm wanes as she tries to do her must dos but can't get a reservation for each one because she didn't book 180 days in advance.

 

[djlaosc]

I know what I'll do, that is get a FP to Soarin and Test track in Epcot as early as I can then head to another park. Problem is I would think a bunch of other people would do exactly the same thing????? Same with DHS FP for TT, Rock, roll coaster and Toy Story then off to another park. I would see other things in both Epcot and DHS but everyone is going to go for those rides first and in opinion those are both half day parks. If it ends up that you can't book FP's when you want this could end up a big problem. Let's say Epcot, Soarin in the AM and Test Track at 6 PM. That would be totally useless for me and I probably just wouldn't go to Epcot because I know the standby lines would be ridiculous. Maybe Disney wants to put an end to park hopping???

It is extremely unlikely that you would be able to get "Soarin' and Test Track", or "ToT, RNRC and TSMM" - I would imagine that Soarin' and Test Track would be put in the same group (along with possibly Mission:SPACE), that you will be able to get one off, then I would guess that you would be able to get the rest out of Nemo, Crush, LwtL, Ellen, Figment, Captain EO, Maelstrom and Gran Fiesta Tour. As for TOT/RNRC/TSMM - you will possibly be able to get two out of the three (either TOT or RnRC was in the same category as TSMM and LMA in the last test they did), but probably not all three.

You'll have to get your FP+ reservations in advance and then run to which ever one you couldn't get one for as soon as you get there.

 

[Tim Lohr]

Increasing FastPass capacity does not increase overall capacity, so the "tub" is not getting bigger and the faucet is not "turned down" because there is no control on when people enter.

as usual you've missed the big picture lazyboy97o, they're phasing out fastpass, diminishing it to the point that it won't really effect anything anymore

 

[lazyboy97o]

as usual you've missed the big picture lazyboy97o, they're phasing out fastpass, diminishing it to the point that it won't really effect anything anymore

Or you're just talking nonsense again. FastPass+ is a key component to the NextGen Experience, and will be available for more attractions and experiences than the current FastPass system. Expansion and significant investment are not signs of a system about to be diminished.

 

[Tim Lohr]

The analogy is full of holes (no pun intended) but I think he was TRYING to say the tub was the FP capacity.. but the tub should really be the Ride capacity.. which as you note is fixed. And the rate of people (the faucet) is a poor because it doesn't account for the tolerance for wait which also impacts 'demand'

The water in the bucket is a good analogy to explain how demand vs capacity create a line.. but how he tried to extend it.. it was all washed up

this isn't any where near what I was actually saying, what I was saying was that If they schedule times to ride in advance, morning, afternoon, and evening that can, are, and will be able to control the flow of people into BOTH THE FAST PASSLINES AND STAND BY LINES

Ride capacity is fixed, demand is constantly fluctuating, so both of these thing are irrelevant, that's why I never mentioned either of them

"water in a bucket" is a more simplistic analogy, but It doesn't cover much, and I'll admit the "bath-tub" is a whole lot more complex analogy, but it about as accurate an explanation as I could come up

 

[flynnibus]

this isn't any where near what I was actually saying, what I was saying was that If they schedule times to ride in advance, morning, afternoon, and evening that can, are, and will be able to control the flow of people into BOTH THE FAST PASSLINES AND STAND BY LINES

Ride capacity is fixed, demand is constantly fluctuating, so both of these thing are irrelevant, that's why I never mentioned either of them

They aren't irrelevant and your attempt is so convoluted and screwed up. The demand is not independent of the wait (and the wait is a function of capacity and demand).

It's why your bathtub example is so screwed up... the faucet is not a constant, or a single variable.. it's tied to a feedback loop with the water in the tub. The only constant in the system is the drain. The tub is in effect infinite in size.. because there is no consequence of overflowing the queue of the ride except for a longer queue. Now one could say the tub represents the size of the attraction's queue, and overflowing that would represent overflowing the attraction.. but that too doesn't work because water spilled out of the tub is lost.. when in reality the line simply gets bigger. And people that are turned off by the size of the line.. aren't analogous to the water from the faucet because they don't actually get in line and hence don't actually flow into the queue/tub.

The analogy is extremely poor. The 'water in the bucket' example (which BTW is done with a hole in the bucket.. which is why its basically the same as a tub) is only good for illustrating that when your input exceeds your output, you get a backup.

But here

When you say things like
"As far as "supply and demand" goes, they can't really control demand, but they can adjust the supply. By supplying the Fast Pass option to everything in the park, and limiting the supply of actual Fast Passes to 3 per person, they're basically making the bath tub bigger and turning down the faucet."

Putting limits on the FP supply is not like making the Bathtub bigger.. it doesn't impact the attractions holding capacity at all.. but rather is a variable in trying to hinder demand.. hence reducing the backup... not actually improving the holding of the attraction.

You have reasonable ideas - but your illustration is flawed to the point of useless.

Putting limits on the amounts of FP works by throttling the increased demand FP puts on a ride's current turnover of its backlog (its queue). By reducing the uncontrolled surges, the attraction's queue will stabilizeand in an ideal world would settle at the perfect balance of wait vs value the attraction offers. That is only an ideal tho, as that balance of 'wait vs value' varies between guests and is based on many things.

 

[RSoxNo1]

100% speculation but is it unreasonable to think they would do 3 FP+ reservations for Deluxe, 2 for moderate, and 1 for value?

 

[lazyboy97o]

100% speculation but is it unreasonable to think they would do 3 FP+ reservations for Deluxe, 2 for moderate, and 1 for value?

Despite the still widespread ignorance of the FastPass system, I don't think those who will be most inclined to buy into the fullest extent of MyMagic+, including potential upcharge experiences, will be pleased with such a limit on what was once free. Three FastPasses per person may be the overall average, but it is not average amongst the audience that will most buy into the system.