Still click bait , one thing to say, another is the source and proof.
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JP Morgan Analysts Think June Opening?
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Chef Mickey
Well-Known Member
That tells you cases may already be astronomical and we have more immunity and a much lower death rate.Testing fever simply doesn't work with so many asymptomatic carriers - either those who will never get sick or those will become ill but it hasn't hit them yet. If you read first-hand accounts of those with even the "mild-to-moderate" version of the illness, it makes the typical flu look like a walk in the park. Can't imagine most people want to trek around through a swamp feeling like that.
Also I'm not the one saying anything, this is the Governor of California saying these things:
“The prospect of mass gatherings is negligible at best until we get to herd immunity and we get to a vaccine,” Newsom said. “So large-scale events that bring in hundreds, thousands, tens of thousands of strangers altogether across every conceivable difference, health and otherwise, is not in the cards based upon our current guidelines and current expectations.”
Again, this can change if there's better testing and tracing of contacts or a therapeutic drug, but his description above is literally Disneyland.
Governor Newsom: Mass gatherings ‘not in the cards’ when California lockdown is lifted
“The prospect of mass gatherings is negligible at best,” Newsom said Tuesday.www.mercurynews.com
Some of the projections thrown around for deaths have been totally ridiculous and disconnected from reality, particularly because people are doing linear math and ignoring the real fact of massive unreported cases.
Chef Mickey
Well-Known Member
That’s my point. Lockdown isn’t a solution. We need to innovate and deal with reality. If you’re scared, stay home...but I’m not going to stay locked up for a virus with probably a 99% survival and even higher for healthy people. I’d rather just get it like I got the chicken pox and move on than live my life in fear.
Before everyone gets all indignant, I support the current measures...but we need a path to normalcy. I absolutely believe a longer term shutdown does more damage than the virus would do
Combine that with our lukewarm implementation of “lockdown” and it tells me the virus isn’t going to kill anything close to what people were throwing out with their linear projections. I wouldn’t be surprised if there were 20,000,000 cases in the US.
Nothing has been astronomical or disconnected from reality. People keep not understanding models are only as good as the current data. The initial modeling, predicting 2M dead, was when no social distancing was done. Then they adjusted to show that something like 55% of the country distanced accordingly, which brought the numbers down more. Eventually once 90% of the country was under some kind of stay at home order, the models were revised down even more.
We also don't know the total number of unreported cases. It's still hard for people to get testing.
26,000 Americans dead in 3 weeks is unlike anything we've seen with any other illness. We shut our economy down to get to that #. Had we not the death toll would have been astronomical.
Chef Mickey
Well-Known Member
This is a friendly discussion. I know my comments are controversial, but take them for what they are.
I don’t claim to be an expert, but I’m also not going to repeat what I hear pounded every day in the news. Doctors shouldn’t make policy...they would shut us down forever if they thought 1 life could be saved, but there are unintended consequences. The media also has a vested interest in scaring you...because you eat it up.
Of course everyone will say current efforts are what saved 2M lives or 80M lives. I don’t happen believe 2M people were dying of covid 19 no matter what we did or did not do. I don’t agree with taking credit for saving a projected number of lives based on early numbers and a linear application of said numbers. I do analytics for a living and the methodology was flawed in my view.
Even you saying 26,000 Americans dead in 3 weeks is inaccurate because it took longer than 3 weeks to do it. Also, disclose the detailed data behind the 26,000. How many were over 80? How many had pre-existing conditions? How many were sick with something else and covid was ultimately blamed? How many had weakened immunity?
As a virus spreads, it has less ability to kill because it’s already killed and infected the weakest first. The virus is unable maintain the same infection rate and lethality over time. People are flipping out because it’s new...understandable, but it will lose momentum and already has to some extent. Maybe some of it is distancing, but we aren’t distancing nearly as much as some people think.
I’m not going to argue every point with you, but 61,000 died of the flu in one flu season just 3 years ago....with treatments, vaccines, and coveted herd immunity. No one cared.
If unreported cases are something like 10X reported, which I think is possible, we are in great shape....because it’s not very deadly and we are developing a lot of immunity.
And I believe you're totally wrong to say "nothing has been disconnected from reality." That's what a projection is...a guess with very early data. It was anything but reality and you can't say it WOULD have been reality, because that's not reality. You will never know. I'm sure distancing has helped some, but you don't get to say distancing saved 2M lives no matter how flawed the projection was. There have been projections of many more than 2M dead too. Are we going to say those were good?
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HauntedMansionFLA
Well-Known Member
They started to lump everyone who dies in the category of having Covid19 to pad their numbers after the outrageous/panic driven numbers.
Just like they needed 33,000 ventilators, expert statements, and ended up needin 14,000 for the whole USA.
Remember the panic when AIDS came out and people were afraid to have a gay person breathe, touch or even look at you in fear of catching it.
Chef Mickey
Well-Known Member
It's actually sad what a disservice the media has done during this time. The media's role should be to report facts and it's gotten to the point where all they do is spout opinions and conjecture, the more ridiculous the better for ratings. They are definitely making the situation worse because many people will only read headlines and watch the news.
I watch financial news a lot. They LOVE market down days because they can get "experts" on that constantly predict the next recession, depression, 30% drop, and every one of them speaks as if they are some genie predicting the future. You'd think every down day is the start of the next recession. People predicting Dow 5,000 and to get ready for bread lines and stagflation.
Point is, people watch when they're scared. Right now, they have nothing to do but watch the news and click articles.
We never get the full story and it seems there are VERY few people asking questions. Everything I hear is a complete rehash of what's been said on the news with almost zero independent thinking.
I may be underreacting, but they are definitely overreacting. The truth has to be in the middle. The flu kills 61,000 people in a single season and no one even bats an eye. Imagine if we reported every flu death, let alone every case.
61,000 died in ten months. We've seen 26,000 deaths in less than a month, with the # of deaths per day climbing nearly every day. Not to mention we shut down everything to get to that number. Imagine if people had continued going to sporting events, Disney, etc. That number would have been astronomically higher.
All you need to do is look at NYC. When you have no social distancing you see an outbreak on a scale that we havent seen for many years. Freezer trucks for morgues, etc. Thankfully they got people to distance quickly thereafter so that's why you're now starting to see a bend in the curve.
In Italy they didn't have enough beds, so their death rate skyrocketed. Same would happen here.
Chef Mickey
Well-Known Member
Yeah...I mean I'm not saying it is the flu...but 61,000 deaths are on record for something no one thought twice about...and btw, that continues to kill a lot of people every year WITH the vaccine and treatments. This is a new virus, but likely one we'll have to deal with like many others.
I mean, freezer trucks for morgues is sort of sensationalism. Did it happen? Yeah...is it the norm? No. But it's great for news and shock value.
Italy also has the oldest average population. More detail on who died would tell so much more than just the gross number does.
Again, more detail on the deaths would be absolutely illuminating to who this is killing and the types of people it targets. That matters. We already know the elderly and people with underlying conditions are massively more at risk than a healthy 30 year old. Unreported cases are everything in terms of mortality. If the majority of cases aren't reported which I think is highly probable, we are in so much better shape than it seems.
26,000 people dying in "less than a month" is a little rich. Many of those people were already sick and again, early on with a new virus, the deaths will come quicker. It will not maintain that level of momentum throughout, which is one reason the modeling is so flawed.
WAY too early to start projecting at current rates and the media did it non stop for months.
NYC is the densest population in America and big picture, the number of people who died is low. Of course it's sad and tragic, nonetheless. If I told you how many people died in car wrecks, from the flu, or falling off a ladder and I told you every day, you might start getting scared of driving and hanging Christmas lights. Don't underestimate how the media can shape your thinking.
wdw71fan
Well-Known Member
That’s not worst case. Sadly.
Josh Hendy
Well-Known Member
Indeed. Or blogs.
I wouldn't put TOO much faith in those flu numbers. This is an oldie but a goodie:
Published by ...
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services
One of the complaints against CV-19 death counts is that usually, anyone who has tested positive for CV-19 and who dies is counted as a CV-19 death even if the cause of death might have been a different condition. But for reported flu deaths, it is inferred from the existence of pneumonia and often no testing for the flu virus is done at all.
Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health