Is attendance really down at WDW this or…

Thepuma

Well-Known Member
I think a lot of context is being stripped from these discussions.

Most of the articles/media around the lower crowds were specific to July 4th weekend.
A lot of that was based on wait times in the park being recorded by third parties.

People will absolutely decide to stay inside during hot weather. People who paid money to fly to Florida will absolutely avoid going to the parks and standing in line, when they have access to air conditioning and pools at their resort. This isn't about cancelling vacations so much as it is, why are wait times in the park so much lower at random times during the day.

So yes, in that context, it absolutely makes sense to say that the weather is playing a part in shifting wait times and demand and generating the comments about lower crowds.




So now that attendance is starting to rebound what is the cause? Strictly discounting?

The point being...it is these very people who would have avoided the parks anyway on a hot day.

In Florida the average temperature has risen 3 degrees in 100 years. I very much doubt anyone who previously stayed out in the parks at 90 degrees is going to cave in and stop going because of an extra 1 or 2 degrees.

There is always fluctuations in temperature and therefore fluctuations in attendances. But we are talking here about why people who used to go are now not going as much...and I just fail to believe a couple of degrees is going to sway things so much.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Again, it's not based just on third party sites. You have multiple people WHO WERE THERE telling you about it. And telling you about it not just for wait times, but for hotels and dining as well. It was dead, legit the deadest I've seen in decades. Why is it rebounding? No idea, I'm not there to say. Though I'm not sure how you can say using third party wait times does not show it was dead, but it DOES show that it has rebounded now.

But I will die on the hill that the heat was not the reason it was dead (or even a significant reason). Heat could be the reason DHS was 40% lower on the 4th, and it would still be less than their lowest staffing considerations. If you doubled the number of people there, you are still less than half full.
In addition to first hand reports and near daily pictures of empty thoroughfares (not the case in any significant crowd level)…

The business side - for those that have some level of access/contacts - has been sounding the alarm for at least a year. Occupancy is down a lot. I hear some low occ stuff is happening…

Couple that with promotions…they’re down

It’s not the weather…it’s not a hoax. They’re just not booking.

They’re also not selling any Halloween tickets. Anyone catch that? More to follow.

Crowds are NOT reflected in genie posted times.

But this is alot to process for the Stupe
 
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hopemax

Well-Known Member
In the anecdotal column, my Dad went to MK today to do some shopping. He said he got there around 11, all the gates were open and the lines were all 20ish people deep. He didn’t know if the crowd was just late getting started or what. When he called me about 15 minutes ago, he said at that moment, Main Street was full of people, hard to get back to the entrance.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The point being...it is these very people who would have avoided the parks anyway on a hot day.

In Florida the average temperature has risen 3 degrees in 100 years. I very much doubt anyone who previously stayed out in the parks at 90 degrees is going to cave in and stop going because of an extra 1 or 2 degrees.

There is always fluctuations in temperature and therefore fluctuations in attendances. But we are talking here about why people who used to go are now not going as much...and I just fail to believe a couple of degrees is going to sway things so much.
There is this borderline crazy conspiracy theory floating around that people who booked a year ago cancelled or are staying in their “packed” hotel because of the heat dome

Like hundreds of thousands of them…If not millions
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
In the anecdotal column, my Dad went to MK today to do some shopping. He said he got there around 11, all the gates were open and the lines were all 20ish people deep. He didn’t know if the crowd was just late getting started or what. When he called me about 15 minutes ago, he said at that moment, Main Street was full of people, hard to get back to the entrance.
Boots on the ground. Good info! All is well at WDW….. Well, if MOBBED means things are back to normal.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
In the anecdotal column, my Dad went to MK today to do some shopping. He said he got there around 11, all the gates were open and the lines were all 20ish people deep. He didn’t know if the crowd was just late getting started or what. When he called me about 15 minutes ago, he said at that moment, Main Street was full of people, hard to get back to the entrance.
Would need a picture to kinda see that on a Wednesday.

My in laws swore it was “packed” the last week of June…

Then they sent pictures and it was like housing crash level

Perception sometimes isn’t reality.

The “packed queues” that some of the Disney promoters put on Twitter over the weekend shows a 10-15 degree field of view outside the train station. Maybe 1/4 of the total turnstiles.
 

JD80

Well-Known Member
There is this borderline crazy conspiracy theory floating around that people who booked a year ago cancelled or are staying in their “packed” hotel because of the heat dome

Like hundreds of thousands of them…If not millions


Would you agree or disagree that extreme heat has an impact on how long people are in the parks? Examples would be:
  • they take a mid day break when they normally don't
  • enter the parks early when they normally rope drop
  • enter the parks later in the day when they would normally go in earlier
  • they rope drop and by 3pm are so completely exhausted, hot and tired the leave when they normally would stay until close?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Ok…I’ll play…
Would you agree or disagree that extreme heat has an impact on how long people are in the parks? Examples would be:
  • they take a mid day break when they normally don't
Possibly…but mid day breaks have been standard for the frequent visitors for many years and there are not a lot of first timers in the parks. My guess is even less because of the price jacking.
  • enter the parks early when they normally rope drop
Genie has pushed more to that anyway
  • enter the parks later in the day when they would normally go in earlier
I doubt it. The word is out how Disney has rigged it against that. And it’s on purpose.
  • they rope drop and by 3pm are so completely exhausted, hot and tired the leave when they normally would stay until close?
Maybe…

But none of that accounts for the amount of bleed they have seen.

This is anecdotal but I really trust the source:
A TA contact of mine (who I have been recruited by to do it on the side for along time) and makes somewhere north of half a mil a year on commissions - probably 60% or more at wdw specifically - told me last September that bookings took a nosedive.

I don’t think anyone in a dolorean showed up last year and told the people about the heat dome
 

LSLS

Well-Known Member
Would you agree or disagree that extreme heat has an impact on how long people are in the parks? Examples would be:
  • they take a mid day break when they normally don't
  • enter the parks early when they normally rope drop
  • enter the parks later in the day when they would normally go in earlier
  • they rope drop and by 3pm are so completely exhausted, hot and tired the leave when they normally would stay until close?

Define extreme heat. The curve from that week for the wait times follow similar patterns on the same days every year.
 

Minnesota disney fan

Well-Known Member
Exactly. You wouldn't personally catch me dead at WDW between the end of May and September, ever, but the people who planned vacations in advance aren't deciding all of a sudden not to go because it's a little hotter than normal. It's always sweltering in WDW in the summer, it's expected - and I just don't think huge swaths of people are cancelling vacations last minute because of it (particularly domestically where there is record heat across the country).

What's going on is exactly as you state - for years folks like myself on these boards have been warning this was going to happen. They finally priced the experience too high, took too much away, and expect too much bull crap and the audience willing to put up with all that has fizzled. The post-pandemic travel boom staved it off for a bit, but the chickens have come home to roost.

The spectacular failure of Galactic Starcruiser was not an anomaly - it was the canary in the coal mine. And people certainly weren't not booking that almost entirely indoor experience because it's "too hot outside". It's because Disney finally found the tipping point where the experience has just degraded so much and the prices are so high that they have alienated much of their repeat customer base, leaving them with the "one and done" folks who were part of the post-pandemic boon who just aren't returning.
I couldn't have said it better:)
 

el_super

Well-Known Member
Again, it's not based just on third party sites.

Iger was responding to the WSJ article, not your neighbor's aunt's roommate's trip report. What did the WSJ cite as evidence of the decline on July 4th?

This is exactly what i mean by trying to strip the context.


There is always fluctuations in temperature and therefore fluctuations in attendances. But we are talking here about why people who used to go are now not going as much...and I just fail to believe a couple of degrees is going to sway things so much.

So, again, if it's getting busier now, what changed? What changed between July 4th and now?

Is Genie+ still there? Is Iger still employed?
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Iger was responding to the WSJ article, not your neighbor's aunt's roommate's trip report. What did the WSJ cite as evidence of the decline on July 4th?

This is exactly what i mean by trying to strip the context.




So, again, if it's getting busier now, what changed? What changed between July 4th and now?

Is Genie+ still there? Is Iger still employed?
Have you ever been there before?

I’d be willing to meet you and select designated others at wdw and spend a couple of days showing you around and teaching you how to read the crowds. It’s actually quite interesting…

But at night…I have to find some PML people and bar hop to relax my brain…

…you’re not old enough for that yet 😂
 
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Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
This is anecdotal but I really trust the source:
A TA contact of mine (who I have been recruited by to do it on the side for along time) and makes somewhere north of half a mil a year on commissions - probably 60% or more at wdw specifically - told me last September that bookings took a nosedive.

I don’t think anyone in a dolorean showed up last year and told the people about the heat dome
We must keep in mind that this is not limited to WDW or the travel businerss in general.

I have spoken with folks outside the theme park business and their business is also taking a nosedive (factual numbers).

So, the economy is a major factor.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
We must keep in mind that this is not limited to WDW or the travel businerss in general.

I have spoken with folks outside the theme park business and their business is also taking a nosedive (factual numbers).

So, the economy is a major factor.
Lol…

The economy hasn’t taken a nosedive…

They allowed a virus to be a blanket umbrella excuse for the biggest example of digitized price gouging in modern history.

The credit numbers are shocking and the dial is spinning…
Travel isn’t the beneficiary of that kinda trend.

This “where are the crowds?” Stuff is just starting

Why do think Bob looks like I peed in his Wheaties in sun valley ?
 
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Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Lol…

The economy hasn’t taken a nosedive…

They allowed a virus to be a blanket umbrella excuse for the biggest example of digitized price gouging in modern history.

The credit numbers are shocking and the dial is spinning…
Travel isn’t the beneficiary of that kinda trend.

This “where are the crowds?” Stuff is just starting

Why do think Bob looks like I peed in his Wheaties in sun valley ?
I never said the economy is taking a nosedive.

Read my post, I said, "the economy is a major factor."

You spoke of tourism in your words, took a "nosedive"

I have spoken to folks, and they have unsolicited told me their business also is taking a "nosedive".

The two businesses do have a commonality. They both involve discretionary spending.
 

UNCgolf

Well-Known Member
People who paid money to fly to Florida will absolutely avoid going to the parks and standing in line, when they have access to air conditioning and pools at their resort.

I'd guess this is a small minority of (non-local/non-AP) guests. If you've traveled there and already paid for a ticket to go to the parks, are you really going to just sit around at your hotel and not actually use the ticket you've paid for even if it's really hot?

Guests might be in the park a smaller percentage of the day, which would of course still have an effect, but I doubt most guests are just not going entirely and wasting a full day.
 

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