Iger out in 2018

[RobidaFlats]

To be precise, there is a drop in Q4 EPS (July-Aug-Sept) on an annual basis over the last few years, per this CNBC quarterly earnings chart I pulled today and can be found here http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/DIS/tab/5
View attachment 153980
I'm assuming that this is due to an increased P&R operating expenses during the summer and the decrease in P&R attendance in September.

Re: TWDC yearly performance graph, looking across business segments, one can see that the growth is largely found in the Media Networks and P&R. Expecting the upward trend since ~2011 to continue is problematic, due to 1. the ESPN issues (which really is not my bailiwick but many others have explained them on these boards) and 2. the record Orlando tourist boom 2011-15 fueled by international tourists and new park offerings is likely on the decline until 2019-20? (when new lands open).
IMO, if TWDC manages to keep increasing revenue over the next year and a half or so, it will be due to P&R cuts and limited price increases. (I'll be surprised if they meet expectations this upcoming Q3 earnings call). I really don't know what they would do on the Media Networks side, so if someone could fill that in.....

I have no comment regarding your conclusions, however I wanted to thank you for including your source for the data. When I have questions about what I am reading it is much easier to gain context when I can easily check the source.

 

[SorcererMC]

I have no comment regarding your conclusions, however I wanted to thank you for including your source for the data. When I have questions about what I am reading it is much easier to gain context when I can easily check the source.

Providing a source is force of habit.

My conclusions may or may not be correct as I'm not strictly a finance analyst and it is only my interpretation of the graphs, others are probably more well-informed or could provide better context or a fuller picture. I'm learning.

 

[jakeman]

Providing a source is force of habit.

My conclusions may or may not be correct as I'm not strictly a finance analyst and it is only my interpretation of the graphs, others are probably more well-informed or could provide better context or a fuller picture. I'm learning.

Seems like your conclusion make logical sense. They don't however (nor am I prescribing intent to your post) seem to support our habitual fabricator's, @ford91exploder, assertion as to the current state of TWDC, which he repeatedly claims will be liquidating in the next few quarters.

I don't know what the financial health of the company is, nor do I really care, but given the other post by Mr. Exploder, I just kind of assume it's the opposite.

 

[SorcererMC]

Seems like your conclusion make logical sense. They don't however (nor am I prescribing intent to your post) seem to support our habitual fabricator's, @ford91exploder, assertion as to the current state of TWDC, which he repeatedly claims will be liquidating in the next few quarters.

I don't know what the financial health of the company is, nor do I really care, but given the other post by Mr. Exploder, I just kind of assume it's the opposite.

My intent - my interest in TWDC is purely a hobby and I would like to be more practiced at reading their financials and using different metrics (stock price and revenue only tell part of the story); I'm looking for some general trends and context. TWDC's financial statements that I've read are rather vague themselves in their qualitative statements. I'm trying to get a baseline as I do think that this summer could be a turning point for them, and next year's valuations would probably include expectations re: Iger's successor.

re: financial health, at present DIS$ has P/E of 17.7x and from what I'm reading that is less than an average of ~20. They have done several stock buybacks since 2013; they can be used to increase EPS at a faster rate than relying on operational improvements as well as decrease shareholder equity (thereby artificially inflating performance metrics like ROE return on equity). I also haven't looked at their dividends, which would represent current shareholder payouts (while stock buybacks represent future payouts).

Should I do a disclaimer saying that this does not constitute investment advice?

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Iger will sign an extension through 2020. (At least)

 

[LuvtheGoof]

To be precise, there is a drop in Q4 EPS (July-Aug-Sept) on an annual basis over the last few years, per this CNBC quarterly earnings chart I pulled today and can be found here http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/DIS/tab/5
View attachment 153980
I'm assuming that this is due to an increased P&R operating expenses during the summer and the decrease in P&R attendance in September.

Re: TWDC yearly performance graph, looking across business segments, one can see that the growth is largely found in the Media Networks and P&R. Expecting the upward trend since ~2011 to continue is problematic, due to 1. the ESPN issues (which really is not my bailiwick but many others have explained them on these boards) and 2. the record Orlando tourist boom 2011-15 fueled by international tourists and new park offerings is likely on the decline until 2019-20? (when new lands open).
IMO, if TWDC manages to keep increasing revenue over the next year and a half or so, it will be due to P&R cuts and limited price increases. (I'll be surprised if they meet expectations this upcoming Q3 earnings call). I really don't know what they would do on the Media Networks side, so if someone could fill that in.....

Edit: It also looks like the Q1 holiday season and Q3 festivals are driving P&R attendance and revenue; hence the spring price hikes and upcharge events.

The statement was made that since Iger took over the reins, that revenue was down pretty much across the board. That statement was totally a lie, and the data proves that. Disney, like all tourist destinations, has times when more people visit, so more revenue, and other times when fewer people visit, so less revenue. That is clearly indicated in the charts - even the ones that you provided. But the over-all trend in all of the charts is upwards, not downwards as has been stated. No statement that I have read talked about stock prices or EPS or any other financial indicators. People are now trying to move the goal posts to prop up their silly argument that Iger has been financially bad for Disney, when nothing could be further from the truth.

Do I like the fact that they have not invested as much in the parks under him? No. But that is a completely separate argument that has been made around here many times.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I have no comment regarding your conclusions, however I wanted to thank you for including your source for the data. When I have questions about what I am reading it is much easier to gain context when I can easily check the source.

I guess I could have, but my source came directly from Disney SEC filings over the last decade or so. They can all be found here:

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/investor-relations/

 

[SorcererMC]

The statement was made that since Iger took over the reins, that revenue was down pretty much across the board. That statement was totally a lie, and the data proves that. Disney, like all tourist destinations, has times when more people visit, so more revenue, and other times when fewer people visit, so less revenue. That is clearly indicated in the charts - even the ones that you provided. But the over-all trend in all of the charts is upwards, not downwards as has been stated. No statement that I have read talked about stock prices or EPS or any other financial indicators. People are now trying to move the goal posts to prop up their silly argument that Iger has been financially bad for Disney, when nothing could be further from the truth.

Do I like the fact that they have not invested as much in the parks under him? No. But that is a completely separate argument that has been made around here many times.

The question of TWDC performance under Iger is a broad subject, and I think that limiting the discussion to stock price or revenue (while major indicators) is inadequate. I neither think that 'everything is coming up roses' nor that TWDC is a corpse flower about to bloom. I think it's a mixed picture and more complicated (when taking into consideration stock buybacks, acquisitions, infrastructure investments, operations, etc.). I am not inclined to believe glowing reviews of Iger in the media, or Wall St analysts out to make money, or even TWDC statements that would skew positive. I'd rather analyze the available information (including posts here), verify or reject certain claims, and reach my own conclusions. I appreciate the charts you posted as it does save me some time; I do realize that it does take time and effort to put them together (on your part and others who do so as well).

 

[TsWade2]

Kathleen Kennedy should replace Iger and Filoni should replace Kennedy at Lucasfilm.

As much as I would love to support Kathleen Kennedy, but there are a lot doubting thomases people saying that she might not. And I don't think Bob Iger respects everything Disney at all. He cares of the money, Frozen, Star Wars, and Marvel. He never cares about Mickey Mouse and friends, classic animated features like Pinocchio and Fantasia, Disney Afternoon cartoons exception for Ducktales, or fans like us. He's a greedy miser like Michael Eisner. I want Disney to be Disney again, but it looks like we'll never get it back while this greedy jerk is around.

 

[Siren]

The over-utilization of IP's to leverage synergistic lattice structured organization within the parks was first initiated with the toonification of Epcot that began with Eisner.

Eisner also severely damaged the dynamics in how Disney theme parks were operated with the introduction of DVC -- the theme parks soon became an afterthought with a slashed budget to match.

Finally, Eisner blatantly disregarded Walt's feelings in how guest transport should be facilitated throughout the resort with the introduction of buses. Walt did not want buses at WDW.

that could be 10 years considering construction

I know! That was totally the point. LOL. I wish that Iger could stick around to make sure that all of these projects are done .

I think it's unfair that Iger gets blamed for all of the things that Eisner initiated and already put in place well before his departure and Iger assumed the reigns.

 

[ShoalFox]

I'm sorry, but I don't care! And everybody here in this forum has every right to criticize Bob Iger! He killed traditional animation, he's treating classic characters like Pinocchio, Fantasia, Alice In Wonderland, Hercules, Song of the South and etc like crud, he thinks about money, and he even almost replace Mickey Mouse to Hannah Montana as the new mascot. Or was that Anne Sweeney? Anyway, I hate business people so much. They're greedy, egotistical, and they never care about fans like us. I want Kathleen Kennedy to be the next CEO, because she cares more about traditional animation than other stupid executives. Kathleen Kennedy FTW!

I guess I over did it.

I was about to agree with you until that Hannah Montana line.

 

[TsWade2]

I was about to agree with you until that Hannah Montana line.

I edited that. Sorry.

 

[AEfx]

He killed traditional animation, he's treating classic characters like Pinocchio, Fantasia, Alice In Wonderland, Hercules, Song of the South and etc like crud...

Aye, if only we could return to that golden age when Eisner was giving traditional animation all that luxurious attention, what with Cinderella II and Aladdin III in those classic straight-to-videos; if only he were still in charge, perhaps we would have seen those other classics get the attention we all know they need with Pinocchio II - Escape the Fireplace and Hercules 2: Hercules Meets She-Hades...

 

[wdisney9000]

The over-utilization of IP's to leverage synergistic lattice structured organization within the parks was first initiated with the toonification of Epcot that began with Eisner.

Eisner also severely damaged the dynamics in how Disney theme parks were operated with the introduction of DVC -- the theme parks soon became an afterthought with a slashed budget to match.

Finally, Eisner blatantly disregarded Walt's feelings in how guest transport should be facilitated throughout the resort with the introduction of buses. Walt did not want buses at WDW.

Yes, Eisner left such a mess for Iger, lol. What was he thinking when he built all those great resorts, attractions and ENTIRE theme parks that Iger has exploited to no end. DVC was actually affordable when it was introduced. What a mad man! Animal Kingdom Lodge, Wilderness Lodge, Yacht and Beach Club, Saratoga, Old Key West, Carribean Beach, Port Orleans,Coronado, Pop and All Star resorts were all built on Eisners watch. What was he thinking!!!! Giving us more choices and expanding the resorts!!! How dare he! Iger has been so much more caring by simply adding onto existing resorts and charging insane prices for DVC. I can feel the love.

And oh ya, lets not forget Eisners knee-jerk reaction when Universal Studios was built. Eisner built an ENTIRE new theme park in less than 4 years. Iger bought an IP for billions and 5 years later, the land (not entire park) is still nowhere near finished. And Eisner was a fool for building 2 brand new, again, ENTIRE theme parks when he green lit Blizzard Beach and Typhoon Lagoon.

Eisner introduced Nemo and Donald to Epcot, but at least he built Test Track and Soarin. Iger shoehorned Frozen into Maelstrom with a M&G. And if memory serves, YOU created an entire thread chalk full of wishes that the Seas pavilion be given MORE Nemo after you saw finding Dory.

Eisner definitely had some blunders during his Disney years, especially towards the end, but he also gave us many wonderful things. You talk about slashed budgets under Eisner, thats hilarious.

 

[rob0519]

The over-utilization of IP's to leverage synergistic lattice structured organization within the parks was first initiated with the toonification of Epcot that began with Eisner.

Eisner also severely damaged the dynamics in how Disney theme parks were operated with the introduction of DVC -- the theme parks soon became an afterthought with a slashed budget to match.

Finally, Eisner blatantly disregarded Walt's feelings in how guest transport should be facilitated throughout the resort with the introduction of buses. Walt did not want buses at WDW.

I know! That was totally the point. LOL. I wish that Iger could stick around to make sure that all of these projects are done .

I think it's unfair that Iger gets blamed for all of the things that Eisner initiated and already put in place well before his departure and Iger assumed the reigns.

Whatever Walt's feelings were about ground transportation, he died in 1966, long before the enormous scope of what the resort turned into was even a day dream. Imagine moving tens of millions of visitors a year from park to park, resort to resort, airport to resort without the use of buses. Thousands of cars everywhere? The transportation system in some ways saved the resort and allowed it to expand even more.

I'm sure there are many things happening in the country today that are absolutely necessary that go against the feelings of Washington, Jefferson, etc. that they could not have possibly foreseen.

 

[Siren]

I'm sorry, but I don't care! And everybody here in this forum has every right to criticize Bob Iger! He killed traditional animation, he's treating classic characters like Pinocchio, Fantasia, Alice In Wonderland, Hercules, Song of the South and etc like crud, and he thinks about money. I hate business people so much. They're greedy, egotistical, and they never care about fans like us. I want Kathleen Kennedy to be the next CEO, because she cares more about traditional animation than other stupid executives. Kathleen Kennedy FTW!

I guess I over did it.

Hi @TsWade2! Wow! Just calm down. I can see if someone like stole your stylist or glam squad or whatever but all this over Eisner. LOL.

I was specifically talking about the WDW theme parks not animation. But, since you brought it up -- Iger did not kill traditional animation and he is not treating the classics like crud. Eisner ignored these IP's in the same fashion.

I really don't understand your anger over Song of the South, Pinocchio and Hercules. Like, who is supposed to watch and buy this stuff other than a small handful of nostalgic collectors or something. And, remember the sequel to Alice in Wonderful totally bombed at the box office recently.

I thought the live action remake of Cinderella was awesome. And, Cinderella totally got robbed at the Oscars for Best Costume Design, which was awarded to Mad Max -- like seriously?

Anyway, I loved the new Jungle Book. I heard Pete's Dragon is good. Maleficent was great. I can't wait to see Beauty and the Beast and the fashion of it all.

I'm also not sure what you mean by traditional animation -- if you're referring to 2-D, you can't blame Iger for that either -- CGI/3D is the industry standard. Tangled, Frozen, Wreck It Ralph, and the Baymax movie were all very good films. Not to mention, the Pixar stuff.

I am not familiar with Kathleen Kennedy but I see her name thrown around here a lot so I will take your word for it.

There is nothing wrong with cherishing an amazing era or those special rare moments in time -- that's life, but it can't be bottled up and preserved forever. Try giving some of the new stuff a chance -- there's a lot to be excited about right now!

 

[ShoalFox]

Iger did not kill traditional animation

Last time I checked, Winnie the Pooh (the most recent traditionally animated feature film) was relased in 2011-- Iger's 6th year of being CEO. In addition, most of Walt Disney Animation Studios' traditional animation staff was fired.

 

[Siren]

Aye, if only we could return to that golden age when Eisner was giving traditional animation all that luxurious attention, what with Cinderella II and Aladdin III in those classic straight-to-videos; if only he were still in charge, perhaps we would have seen those other classics get the attention we all know they need with Pinocchio II - Escape the Fireplace and Hercules 2: Hercules Meets She-Hades...

Yay! @AEfx is back! This is so hilarious. You totally had me fooled at first -- I was like, oh no -- not AEfx, too. LOL.

 

[radiohost]

Just remember with change....

It can always get worse.

 

[Siren]

Whatever Walt's feelings were about ground transportation, he died in 1966, long before the enormous scope of what the resort turned into was even a day dream. Imagine moving tens of millions of visitors a year from park to park, resort to resort, airport to resort without the use of buses. Thousands of cars everywhere? The transportation system in some ways saved the resort and allowed it to expand even more.

I'm sure there are many things happening in the country today that are absolutely necessary that go against the feelings of Washington, Jefferson, etc. that they could not have possibly foreseen.

Hi @rob0519! Buses are just the lowest form of transportation. Walt wanted his resort to be state of the art and modern with a mix classic and contemporary themes.

Disney World did not need buses -- the monorail could have extended to all the resorts and the airport. This is what Walt had envisioned for Disney World. I live in a state with no mass transit, and the buses have continually failed those who can't afford cars or cannot drive for whatever reason -- it had gotten so bad, that cities are now building their own light speed rail right to address the desperate need for safe and affordable transportation. The buses are here, so I know this is a moot point but extending the monorail was very feasible and within reach during at one time.