Hurricane Milton coming to FL

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Something to keep in mind this week, Charley was a Cat 2 when it passed through Orlando in 2004.
Parts of Kissimmee and Orlando were blue tarp city for months post Charley 2004 where hundreds of homes had damaged roofs from Charley. One item which proved deadly was when some who ventured out walked through puddles of water only to be electrocuted when live voltage lines were dangling in the water puddles.
 

monothingie

Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
Premium Member
This.

WDW could be heavily impacted by this storm. In ways we have never seen before
Which means that for a company that takes guest safety to the extreme, they should do better with their messaging to guests.

Winding down guest operations the day before and having policies that dissuade guest from leaving or arriving is irresponsible. There is no reason why a timeline for potential shutdowns can’t go out early. If things change then you make updates to it.

Sadly a lot is all about money.

People with travel plans are unable to proactively cancel their plans without penalty because the hurricane policy requires watches or warnings to have been issued, and these usually occur within 24-36 hours of a storm. Which makes travel arrangements almost impossible for guests from out of state.
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
Something to keep in mind this week, Charley was a Cat 2 when it passed through Orlando in 2004.
I lived through Charley when I was living in SWFL. My dad, 50 at the time and plenty familiar with being a Floridian, for many decades(as well as typically ejng stubborn) and that one got him to say as soon as it is a 2 looking like a 3 or higher at landfall...we go somewhere else. No more riding out a 4 or 5 potential. Charley was said to go right for Tampa area and our local meteorologist was telling NOAA it would likely make that last minute change to SWFlL. The news ion our TV had live landfall tracking and audio started saying how the pivot for Fort Myers, Port Charlotte and Puanta Gorda...as our power went out and stayed out for three weeks.
Ian changed a lot of perspectives like this as well.
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
Which means that for a company that takes guest safety to the extreme, they should do better with their messaging to guests.

Winding down guest operations the day before and having policies that dissuade guest from leaving or arriving is irresponsible. There is no reason why a timeline for potential shutdowns can’t go out early. If things change then you make updates to it.

Sadly a lot is all about money.

People with travel plans are unable to proactively cancel their plans without penalty because the hurricane policy requires watches or warnings to have been issued, and these usually occur within 24-36 hours of a storm. Which makes travel arrangements almost impossible for guests from out of state.
And their employees too. I know retail and hospitality world is demanding. I have worked it.
But this is certainly something that can improve. Many live in areas that will be severely damaged and people homeless. Not to mention transportation difficulties.
Preparedness of common plan ahead can happen. But the day and a half before and days after should change and communication should improve.
 
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peter11435

Well-Known Member
Which means that for a company that takes guest safety to the extreme, they should do better with their messaging to guests.

Winding down guest operations the day before and having policies that dissuade guest from leaving or arriving is irresponsible. There is no reason why a timeline for potential shutdowns can’t go out early. If things change then you make updates to it.

Sadly a lot is all about money.

People with travel plans are unable to proactively cancel their plans without penalty because the hurricane policy requires watches or warnings to have been issued, and these usually occur within 24-36 hours of a storm. Which makes travel arrangements almost impossible for guests from out of state.
Definitely agree. Cancellation fees need to be lifted now and they should announce potential closures today.
 

ChrisFL

Premium Member
Something to keep in mind this week, Charley was a Cat 2 when it passed through Orlando in 2004.

I escaped Tampa to go to Orlando when Charley hit. My parents and I stayed at a hotel next to Old Town and 3 stories of bricks on the back wall of the hotel crashed down on the cars parked below them, flattening a minivan roof in the process. Luckily I had parked my car in a different area. I remember driving through the area and seeing all of the business signs just gone...blown out.
 

Brian

Well-Known Member
11am

145937_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png



Discussion:
583
WTNT44 KNHC 061458
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024

Satellite and aircraft data indicate that Milton is strengthening.
A large burst of convection is occurring in the northern semicircle
of the storm, with lots of expanding outflow. The last fix from the
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed a pressure down to 991 mb
with maximum 500m low-level winds of about 65 kt. These winds
reduce down to the surface to about 55 kt, and this value will be
the initial intensity.

The fixes from the aircraft indicate that Milton is south of the
previously anticipated and has been moving east-southeastward or
105/5 kt. Milton is forecast to move a little south of due east
today in westerly flow from a shortwave trough over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues. The Mexican government has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
as a result of the forecast change. It should be noted that the
average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users
should not focus on the exact track.

The NOAA Hurricane Hunter crew reported that an eyewall has formed
on the last center fix, suggesting that this system is ready to
intensify quickly. Given the track over the very deep warm waters
of the Gulf of Mexico and little shear for the next couple of days,
rapid intensification is explicitly forecast, and the new NHC
prediction could still be conservative over the central Gulf of
Mexico. The biggest question actually seems to be the intensity as
Milton approaches Florida, with much of the guidance showing a
notable increase in shear. While some weakening is anticipated,
the shear could help transition Milton to be a large hurricane at
landfall, with impacts spread out over a big area. Regardless of
the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful
hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions
of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents
there should closely monitor this system and listen to local
officials.


Key Messages:

1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward
to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be a major hurricane
when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week.
Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as
there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and
intensity of Milton.

2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location
of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of
life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the
west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches could be issued later
today or tonight. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow
any advice given by local officials and check back for updates to
the forecast.

3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly
related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday
night. This rainfall will bring the risk of flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential of moderate to major river
flooding.

4. Tropical storm conditions are expected beginning Monday across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I’m not sure why people would come down willingly not try to leave. My biggest fear is giving up my hotel room and rental car on Tuesday and then my flight not taking off. With the system slowing down, it seems less likely.
 

KDM31091

Well-Known Member
It has nudged further south but Disney area still by no means in the clear. Wednesday will be a nasty rainy day at the least. We can hope that that's all it is and that impacts are minimal, but who knows.

I see both sides of the argument with announcing closures. The hurricane tracks can and do shift when you're a few days out, and sometimes that makes a huge difference. It would be silly to close for just mild to moderate wind and rain, and people would complain that they didn't need to be closed. So if they jump the gun and close, they lose. If they had closed for Helene, people would have been upset, since in this area it was basically nothing, despite the devastation elsewhere. If on the other hand, they are irresponsible and wait for the last minute, people get screwed with long distance travel plans. So it's a balance. The nature of hurricanes means that in reality they can't announce closures more than say, 48 hours out or so, since it's impossible to really know where it's going before then and where the worst impacts will be.

I sympathize with those who are affected by this and have travel plans destroyed but it's just the risk you take this part of the year especially; September and October are prime hurricane months and it's just the way it is here. This is likely another reason the winter months have become much more crowded in recent years.
 

wdwfan22

Well-Known Member
Definitely agree. Cancellation fees need to be lifted now and they should announce potential closures today.
They might announce water park and campground potential closures, but nothing park related. The storm just shifted to the south. They will wait as long as possible.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I escaped Tampa to go to Orlando when Charley hit. My parents and I stayed at a hotel next to Old Town and 3 stories of bricks on the back wall of the hotel crashed down on the cars parked below them, flattening a minivan roof in the process. Luckily I had parked my car in a different area. I remember driving through the area and seeing all of the business signs just gone...blown out.
Yes Kissimmee got hit pretty hard with 106 mph hurricane force winds. Can’t imagine what at Cat 3/4 could do which would be much worse.
 

JohnD

Well-Known Member
I’m not sure why people would come down willingly not try to leave. My biggest fear is giving up my hotel room and rental car on Tuesday and then my flight not taking off. With the system slowing down, it seems less likely.
I would never advise drivin in to ride out the storm or not trying to evacuate. Nor would I say no place safer. That having been said, if you're out of options, its as safe as possibly can be. And CMs look out for their guests. I rode out Ian at AKL.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I’m not sure why people would come down willingly not try to leave. My biggest fear is giving up my hotel room and rental car on Tuesday and then my flight not taking off. With the system slowing down, it seems less likely.
If you are stranded at MCO you may be with thousands of other travelers sleeping on the floors and few couches in the Main Terminal. I doubt the hotels in the area will have any available rooms at the inn.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
They might announce water park and campground potential closures, but nothing park related. The storm just shifted to the south. They will wait as long as possible.
Those huge RVs at Fort Wilderness should have left yesterday today at the latest and drive to GA or LA.
 

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