News Hurricane Elsa impacts to Walt Disney World July 2021

[John park hopper]

Hurricane season started a month ago.

Per the weather channel
Elsa is the earliest forming fifth named Atlantic storm on record in the satellite era (since 1966). The old record was held by Edouard, which developed a year ago on the evening of July 5.

 

[HauntedPirate]

This is neither here nor there, but people should look to other sources for weather information besides The Weather Hypers Channel.

If this were to impact WDW, and if it were to somehow magically remove the tacos and stargate from WSL… I can think of worse impacts.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I ask, will the lagoon (cough, cough) structures survive the wrath of Elsa?

 

[Parker in NYC]

This is neither here nor there, but people should look to other sources for weather information besides The Weather Hypers Channel.

If this were to impact WDW, and if it were to somehow magically remove the tacos and stargate from WSL… I can think of worse impacts.

Now the weather channel is biased? My goodness, where does it end?!

 

[HauntedPirate]

Now the weather channel is biased? My goodness, where does it end?!

TWC ceased focusing on the weather when it was purchased years ago. Now it uses weather events to hype (guess which outlet is the only one to name winter storms? It’s entirely useless, except to…), drive clicks/eyeballs, and generally stir people up. Which is really sad - In the early to mid-80’s, when we would visit my grandmother in Sarasota and would be able to watch it and get a level of weather information far beyond the local forecasters, it was all kinds of awesome for a young weather geek.

 

[GimpYancIent]

TWC ceased focusing on the weather when it was purchased years ago. Now it uses weather events to hype (guess which outlet is the only one to name winter storms? It’s entirely useless, except to…), drive clicks/eyeballs, and generally stir people up. Which is really sad - In the early to mid-80’s, when we would visit my grandmother in Sarasota and would be able to watch it and get a level of weather information far beyond the local forecasters, it was all kinds of awesome for a young weather geek.

TWC is more interesting and informative than any of the news channels.

 

[TTA94]

Hype causes people to spend money lol. Makes you wonder if some meteorologists are told to say certain things.
Unfortunately hype also makes things difficult for regular shoppers to get things they regularly need.

 

[SpectroMan93]

Hype causes people to spend money lol. Makes you wonder if some meteorologists are told to say certain things.
Unfortunately hype also makes things difficult for regular shoppers to get things they regularly need.

As a meteorologist myself, I know some colleagues who have been encouraged to embellish a bit when it comes to tropical forecasting. But I can assure you the vast majority of us genuinely care about making sure the general public is aware, prepared, and safe. I can tell you as of now that a majority of the models bring Elsa near or over the state of Florida. That may change in the coming days, but that's the data we have currently.

 

[DisneyCane]

This is neither here nor there, but people should look to other sources for weather information besides The Weather Hypers Channel.

If this were to impact WDW, and if it were to somehow magically remove the tacos and stargate from WSL… I can think of worse impacts.

Now the weather channel is biased? My goodness, where does it end?!

I don't know if biased is the right word but they certainly over hype every weather event to try and create a need for people to watch them 24/7. They also make every event they cover look as bad as possible. They'll find he one old gas station roof that got peeled off by a storm and focus on that or find one street with bad flooding and report from there.

There was a picture of (I think) Jim Cantore kneeled down in a puddle reporting to make it look like he was standing in knee deep water. Also, the storm a few years ago where the reporter was "fighting" to stand up in the wind and two guys go walking by in the background.

 

[Lilofan]

Hype causes people to spend money lol. Makes you wonder if some meteorologists are told to say certain things.
Unfortunately hype also makes things difficult for regular shoppers to get things they regularly need.

Weather forecasters are conspiracy theorists? Don't buy it.

 

[TTA94]

As a meteorologist myself, I know some colleagues who have been encouraged to embellish a bit when it comes to tropical forecasting. But I can assure you the vast majority of us genuinely care about making sure the general public is aware, prepared, and safe. I can tell you as of now that a majority of the models bring Elsa near or over the state of Florida. That may change in the coming days, but that's the data we have currently.

Good to know. So what’s your prediction on this storm? Some sites like tropical tidbits seems to think it will stay west of FL.

 

[Animal_Kingdom_09]

Not sure how accurate this site is but their saying the storm is predicted to stay to the west of FL then swing up into north FL.

Forecast Models

Real-time weather model forecast graphics

www.tropicaltidbits.com

You have to be careful looking at the actual models. On the same website, if you look at the ECMWF (European) model it takes the system toward the Bahamas and winds it down. Both the GFS and the European have been good models in the past. The NHC discussion usually reviews the bias that the different models have and gives you an idea of where the folks that do this for a living think it is going. The news likes to focus on the model that brings it close to a city - it is better for ratings.

What i do personally is watch the NHC track to see if the hurricane track +/- 50 miles stays over my house. If it does, then I take action on that. In my case, Irma was the last storm that made me bail out of my house, after 3 forecasts in a row including the 3 day forecast had 145 mph winds at my house. The actual track went to the right of my house so it caused no damage, but you have to decide with the best info you have.

If I were going to be at Disney next week, I would keep a close eye on Elsa but I would not change any plans. The current track is far enough to the west of Orlando that it may not have any effect. I would watch the 5 day graphics archive, though, to see the trend in where it is forecast to go.

Elsa Graphics Archive

 

[Doberge]

Can't imagine Disney is excited by the name. Hopefully this and all disturbances go away quietly but statistically some are huge and destructive. It's a distinct enough name like "Katrina" and "Harvey" to change the top of mind meaning for many people, a little different than "Andrew" and "Michael."

 

[DisneyFan32]

Is the storm will might reach NJ and NY shores in seven days?

 

[disneygeek90]

This is neither here nor there, but people should look to other sources for weather information besides The Weather Hypers Channel.

If this were to impact WDW, and if it were to somehow magically remove the tacos and stargate from WSL… I can think of worse impacts.

Local weathermen that aren’t looking to hype every single storm are my go to in these scenarios. Eric Burris at WESH has gotten me through several storm threats now, including Irma.

 

[disneygeek90]

Is the storm will might reach NJ and NY shores in seven days?

Not even close. If it hits Florida it will die on land quickly.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Very early track it will change as time goes on. Hope they are correct and it stays a tropical storm, way to early in the season for this

If someone would just get me a black marker I can make sure it doesn't touch WDW. I'll direct it back out to sea.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Not even close. If it hits Florida it will die on land quickly.

That is what they said about Tropical Storm Sandy in 2012. Once it hits New England with all the mountains it will quickly die out, then it hit Southern Vermont wiping out roads and power and that is hundreds of miles inland. Never underestimate nature!

 

[GimpYancIent]

I believe there is a plan for characters in their 60th garb to go around visiting the resorts. Its's something. It's not the first timed guests have been stuck in their resorts while a storm passed. Irma in 2017 is a good example.

 

[GimpYancIent]

That is what they said about Tropical Storm Sandy in 2012. Once it hits New England with all the mountains it will quickly die out, then it hit Southern Vermont wiping out roads and power and that is hundreds of miles inland. Never underestimate nature!

Super Storm Sandy kicked NJ and NY butt too before taking care of New England.