How will Universal's Epic Universe effect Disney?

[JusticeDisney]

I don't think that's true, especially since Hogsmeade, and more importantly Diagon Alley, opened. I know several people that have gone to Orlando solely to visit Universal because of Harry Potter -- just took a weekend trip down.

I don’t deny any of that. I was responding to a claim that Uni isn’t a side trip. It was definitely a WDW side trip for many years, and indeed still is for a lot of people. But I agree with you that that has been changing a bit over recent years.

 

[JusticeDisney]

If that were true... no one would ever be able to build something with any degree of it being successful in the market.. they'd totally just be praying they blindly found someone who liked what they did.

Lucky for companies that spend hundreds of millions on attractions - it's not that random.

Ok.

 

[flynnibus]

As I’ve been saying all along in this thread, Uni is definitely coming on strong. They’ve gone from being so far behind that WDW couldn’t even see them in the rear view, to now being where they look like a fly in the rear view. After Epic opens, they will look like a bird in the rear view.

Well keep hugging those TEA reports like they are a trophy... because I'm sure Mickey doesn't feel the same. All that money spent at UNI is money not in their pockets and that amount continues to grow.

Part of Disney's problem will be Epic being 'all new' where the majority of Disney is 'we've already seen that'. As long as Epic opens to good press, it's impact on Disney in the short term is going to be exaggerated even more as people goto discover what UNI is offering at the expense of repeating their past trips with Disney.

I'm also of the belief the generational hold Disney has held in prior generations has finally weakened. UNI is building an empire to compete. It will be interesting to see if they can deliver and sustain.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I don’t deny any of that. I was responding to a claim that Uni isn’t a side trip. It was definitely a WDW side trip for many years, and indeed still is for a lot of people. But I agree with you that that has been changing a bit over recent years.

Yeah, Universal's nine hotels are ghost towns. As recently as this morning, Dockside and it's 2050 rooms was at 100% occupancy.

 

[JusticeDisney]

Well keep hugging those TEA reports like they are a trophy... because I'm sure Mickey doesn't feel the same. All that money spent at UNI is money not in their pockets and that amount continues to grow.

Part of Disney's problem will be Epic being 'all new' where the majority of Disney is 'we've already seen that'. As long as Epic opens to good press, it's impact on Disney in the short term is going to be exaggerated even more as people goto discover what UNI is offering at the expense of repeating their past trips with Disney.

I'm also of the belief the generational hold Disney has held in prior generations has finally weakened. UNI is building an empire to compete. It will be interesting to see if they can deliver and sustain.

I’ll bet you a nickel you end up being wrong on everything you just said. But in the meantime, keep hugging that peacock.

 

[JusticeDisney]

Yeah, Universal's nine hotels are ghost towns. As recently as this morning, Dockside and it's 2050 rooms was at 100% occupancy.

Who said they were?

 

[UNCgolf]

Well if that's all there is 'to you' I don't think your well positioned to too objectively review attractions and stick to just what you prefer to not.

See, I think objectively reviewing attractions is an oxymoron. It's impossible for someone to review an attraction without their personal biases creeping in (bias sounds loaded here, although I don't mean it with a negative connotation). That's true about reviewing any kind of art in general; it's not something specific to theme parks. Even things that are considered almost unanimously great generally have at least a few professional critics who feel otherwise. The Godfather didn't get a great review from Variety, for example -- it didn't get a bad review, but they didn't consider it a great film. And they weren't wrong to feel that way, even though I strongly disagree.

Regardless, talking about criticism/review in general is a completely different discussion and not at all relevant here so I'll leave it at that.

It also sounds like you're really talking about design to maximize popularity among the general public (or at least among whatever the targeted audience is), which I 100% agree is the right way to build for a theme park. If you build a ride that 10% of guests absolutely love but everyone else hates, that's a failed attraction (sure, there could be some specific context in which it would not be a failure, but in general). If you do the reverse, that's a very successful attraction -- both Hagrid's and Velocicoaster are obviously huge successes.

EDIT: I'm not going to change what I wrote above, but in thinking about your comments more, I don't think it's even applicable. I think what you meant is that someone shouldn't review an attraction as "bad" just because it wasn't their personal cup of tea, and I completely agree with that. Even though Velocicoaster doesn't do much for me and thus might be "bad" for me personally (I still wouldn't use the word bad for Velocicoaster, but for the sake of example), that doesn't mean it is a bad attraction in general.

 

[flynnibus]

I’ll bet you a nickel you end up being wrong on everything you just said. But in the meantime, keep hugging that peacock.

You're comical.. you think I'm some uni fan boy?
And you think I'm a female...

It's almost like you don't take in any information before spewing your trash.... oh wait.. yep that's it.

 

[JusticeDisney]

You're comical.. you think I'm some uni fan boy?
And you think I'm a female...

It's almost like you don't take in any information before spewing your trash.... oh wait.. yep that's it.

Wow, childish name calling now. Pretty sad. Not surprising, though. Seriously, try to do better.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I'm also of the belief the generational hold Disney has held in prior generations has finally weakened.

Just from anecdotal experience and looking at social media, I see and hear more interest in Universal from people of a certain age.

There is still a strong desire by many to go to Disney, especially from parents looking to make that right of passage, but the sticker shock and stress when it comes to planning are hard for some to overcome. What's impressive is that Universal isn't really cheaper, but doesn't have that same public perception.

 

[UNCgolf]

Just from anecdotal experience and looking at social media, I see and hear more interest in Universal from people of a certain age.

There is still a strong desire by many to go to Disney, especially from parents looking to make that right of passage, but the sticker shock and stress when it comes to planning are hard for some to overcome. What's impressive is that Universal isn't really cheaper, but doesn't have that same public perception.

I think Universal is cheaper all things considered -- both because it can generally be done in less time (which means fewer hotel nights and ticket days), and because their hotels don't cost as much as Disney hotels. Plus, the Universal deluxe offerings have much better benefits than their more expensive Disney counterparts (although Disney has tried to cut into this with the deluxe after hours offerings... which seem nice, but hard to believe it's good/useful as the included unlimited express pass).

In terms of just day to day ticket prices and food/merchandise costs in the parks, though, yeah. I don't think there's much difference there.

 

[flynnibus]

I think Universal is cheaper all things considered -- both because it can generally be done in less time (which means fewer hotel nights and ticket days), and because their hotels don't cost as much as Disney hotels. Plus, the Universal deluxe offerings have much better benefits than their more expensive Disney counterparts (although Disney has tried to cut into this with the deluxe after hours offerings).

In terms of just day to day ticket prices and food/merchandise costs in the parks, though, yeah. I don't think there's much difference there.

UNI has been pivoting here... setting up for the long game with the hotel build outs.

Problem was before there was no reason to spend more than 3 days at UNI... and UNI didn't really discount for 2 days. They knew their sweet spot and all their bundling and promos for longer stays really was more for show. This made UNI *very* expensive on a per day basis compared to a similar comparison on a longer Disney trip. Disney had locked up the 5-10 day trips and in turn could make their trip LOOK cheap and doing UNI as a side-trip was extremely expensive.

Now that UNI will have a plan to keep people onsite longer, the 'per day' comparisons will have the opportunity to tip more in UNIs favor.. if they chose.

I know in our trips, UNI was never a cheap option... BUT.. we felt we got most of the value from it. But I think that also has to do with picking the right options... UNI is no saint when it comes to being upcharge city and markup hell.

Personally I think Disney has been inviting this level of competition with their diminishing of the resort and basically just making things more and more about theme park commandos. They've lowered themselves and thus made it easier for the competition to catch up.

 

[TalkToEthan]

Problem was before there was no reason to spend more than 3 days at UNI... and UNI didn't really discount for 2 days. They knew their sweet spot and all their bundling and promos for longer stays really was more for show. This made UNI *very* expensive on a per day basis compared to a similar comparison on a longer Disney trip. Disney had locked up the 5-10 day trips and in turn could make their trip LOOK cheap and doing UNI as a side-trip was extremely expensive.

Now that UNI will have a plan to keep people onsite longer, the 'per day' comparisons will have the opportunity to tip more in UNIs favor..

compelling angle

 

[UNCgolf]

UNI has been pivoting here... setting up for the long game with the hotel build outs.

Problem was before there was no reason to spend more than 3 days at UNI... and UNI didn't really discount for 2 days. They knew their sweet spot and all their bundling and promos for longer stays really was more for show. This made UNI *very* expensive on a per day basis compared to a similar comparison on a longer Disney trip. Disney had locked up the 5-10 day trips and in turn could make their trip LOOK cheap and doing UNI as a side-trip was extremely expensive.

Now that UNI will have a plan to keep people onsite longer, the 'per day' comparisons will have the opportunity to tip more in UNIs favor.. if they chose.

I know in our trips, UNI was never a cheap option... BUT.. we felt we got most of the value from it. But I think that also has to do with picking the right options... UNI is no saint when it comes to being upcharge city and markup hell.

Personally I think Disney has been inviting this level of competition with their diminishing of the resort and basically just making things more and more about theme park commandos. They've lowered themselves and thus made it easier for the competition to catch up.

Yeah, adding the water park and now the third theme park, along with all the new hotels, should make Universal draw longer trips. As I said above, even people who were going solely to Universal rather than a split WDW trip often just took a short 3 day trip. That's what we did when I was last at Universal. That will be much harder to do once EU opens, especially for people who want to do Volcano Bay as well.

Once everything is open, if someone was planning a dual trip and asked me for my advice, I'd probably tell them to stay at a Universal deluxe over a Disney hotel if they didn't want to switch mid-trip. They're often barely more expensive than Disney moderates, and you get that incredible unlimited express pass perk. They don't have the overall theming of Disney deluxes (although Disney has been on a bit of a detheming kick), and none of them are as good overall as a resort like Animal Kingdom Lodge, but that express perk and price differential would be hard to pass up.

But, as you insinuated, we may also see Universal start to jack up their hotel prices. If they believe they're going to draw more guests overall and will still fill most of the rooms at a higher rate, there's really no reason for them to avoid a rate hike.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

But, as you insinuated, we may also see Universal start to jack up their hotel prices. If they believe they're going to draw more guests overall and will still fill most of the rooms at a higher rate, there's really no reason for them to avoid a rate hike.

Universal is advertising rates as low as $96/night at Endless Summer for certain 4-night stays and they're building 2 more hotels of similar style/quality over by Epic Universe.

It will be tempting for UNI to charge more for those as their popularity grows, but I think it would be a mistake. Disney used to have options like that with All-Stars and Pop Century, but now even those charge $150-$200/night often and I never want to stay there again because of that (especially without previous perks like airport transfers and EMH). Universal did a similar mark up with Cabana Bay after Endless Summer was built and invented their "prime value" category.

There is a market in Orlando for $95-$120/night rooms which is why so many hotels and motels in the area have operated for decades, despite their mixed reputation. I don't think Disney was smart to turn away that crowd because they thought they could squeeze a little more from others. Universal would be better keeping that market while retaining a reputation for quality to go with that value.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Well keep hugging those TEA reports like they are a trophy... because I'm sure Mickey doesn't feel the same. All that money spent at UNI is money not in their pockets and that amount continues to grow.

This theory is based on a finite audience though, which history has shown isn’t the case, Universals growth hasn’t hurt Disneys growth because the market is growing along with the parks growth.

In 2009 MK brought in 17.2 million guests, Epcot 11, HS 9.7, and AK 9.6. USF had 5.4 million and IOA 4.5.

In 2014 MK had 19.3 million, EP had 11.4, HS 10.3, and AK 10.4. USF had 8.3 and IOA 8.1… Every park gained attendance.

In 2019 MK had 21 million, EP 12.4, HS 11.4, and AK 13.9. USF had 10.9 million and IOA 10.4 million. Every park gained attendance again.

In the last decade MKs attendance is up 22.1%, EP is up 12.8%, HS is up 17.5%, and AK is up 44.8%. USF is up 101.8% and IOA is up 131%. All while prices are skyrocketing.

Universals growth has been phenomenal but it hasn’t stopped Disney from growing substantially at the same time. It could be argued it’s slowed Disneys growth but there’s no way of proving that, it could also be argued it’s helped Disneys growth because it’s bringing more tourists to Orlando, which is my belief.

This is why I say what’s good for one is good for the other, there may come a time when the market reaches its peak and they start poaching guests from the other but I don’t think we’ve reached it yet, Epic opening will likely boost Disneys attendance via more tourists coming to Orlando, and it won’t cost Disney a penny. Universal also benefits when Disney opens something new, they are competitors but they also benefit from each other.

 

[flynnibus]

This theory is based on a finite audience though, which history has shown isn’t the case, Universals growth hasn’t hurt Disneys growth because the market is growing along with the parks growth.

No - It’s based on the addressable market being the same. Neither company has changed the market they are attracting. Recent visitation is simply about how successful they’ve been in getting people to show.

Attendance stats are not all telling. Do they tell you which clicks were unique? Which were new visitors? Which only visited your property?

What matters in this context is uni getting spending dollars from people that might otherwise spent that money at wdw. You can’t see that from tea numbers. You can’t tell how many people opted out of wdw days from tea numbers.

Stop treating TEA numbers like the be all end all. Does your casino treat door clicks as the only measure to compare?

A more interesting stat for this conversation would be avg length of stay and how that is trending.

 

[MisterPenguin]

right of passage

rite of passage, as in a ritual

 

[TalkToEthan]

This theory is based on a finite audience though, which history has shown isn’t the case, Universals growth hasn’t hurt Disneys growth because the market is growing along with the parks growth.

Market grows due to modern day Malthusian effects, too.

 

[TalkToEthan]

Universal is advertising rates as low as $96/night at Endless Summer for certain 4-night stays and they're building 2 more hotels of similar style/quality over by Epic Universe.

That sure looks attractive to those troubled by inflation.