How much should I rely on Touring Plans crowd estimates?

Sparkle81

Sparkle81

Well-Known Member
My 180 day mark is coming up in just over 3 weeks, so I'm starting to fine tune my ADR list for our trip. We're planning them around which parks we are going to for each day, and so I decided to check the crowd estimates for our trip again today, and found that they have changed from the estimates last month. The changes might possibly alter which day we do things, so I'm wondering if they are likely to massively change again before I make the ADRs, and before the trip. Also, Epcot is down as a 2 for the last Saturday of F&W. Can that really be right?!

My obsessive planning side is not dealing with this indecision and changing too well ;)
 
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PigletIsMyCat

PigletIsMyCat

Well-Known Member
eh. when i worked/lived in the area and visited disney multiple times a week, i found the estimates to be kind of accurate. but in my experience when they're off, they're off. like a 2 at epcot for the last weekend of food and wine... unless there's something major going on at another park, i find that very, very, very hard to believe. local APs flock to epcot on the weekends during food & wine.

i'm usually an obsessive planner. i try to let that go when we're going to disney because there's only so much i can control. i don't use those kinds of things any longer - i just try to figure out if there's things going on that will drive up park attendance (like the tower of terror 10k or whatever that's happening the weekend i arrive - it means that i'll avoid dhs that saturday and possibly that sunday). i check the park hours and EMH and decide which park i'll probably want to visit each day and plan my ADRs based on that. one of the reasons we ALWAYS get park hoppers - because that way if we get to a 'planned' park and it's horrific, we can hop to another park - and can always hop back for an ADR if we like.
 
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Master Yoda

Master Yoda

Pro Star Wars geek.
Premium Member
I would give them as much credence as a weather report. It will get more accurate as you get closer and an unforeseen anomaly can always throw a monkey wrench into the gears.

As to Epcot being a 2 on the last day of F&W...I would question that as well, but they might only be considering attraction wait times. While WS will undoubtedly be a zoo, the attraction attendance might be on the light side.
 
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Weather_Lady

Weather_Lady

Well-Known Member
Just take the crowd estimates with a grain of salt. We look at them only to see if there's a huge upswing on any particular day in a particular park, and other than that we just avoid the parks with EMH on any given day unless we're using the EMH ourselves.

A good touring plan will always be more important to your efficiency than the crowd level. Make your ADRs where it's convenient and then plan your touring around them.
 
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cw1982

cw1982

Well-Known Member
FWIW, I actually compared the three most popular crowd calendars (Touring Plans, Easy WDW, and Undercover Tourist), and what I found was that, on some days, they all three agreed, and on other days, they each said something different lol. I agree with @Weather_Lady in that having a plan is far more important than relying on what any one calendar says.
 
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cw1982

cw1982

Well-Known Member
HouCuseChickie said:
I gave up on Touring Plans several years ago. I used them for 2 trips and in both cases, their crowd projections were noticeably off. In light of that, I saw no reason to pay for their services. Easy WDW is free and while not perfect, I've found their projections and suggestions to be more on point.
Click to expand...

Isn't that funny? I've heard people say the same in reverse... and then some who swear by Easy WDW. Go figure.

To the OP, just goes to show that none of them are perfect IMO.
 
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cw1982

cw1982

Well-Known Member
HouCuseChickie said:
And that's why you just can't put too much stock in any of it. It's a very rough gauge, but it's not worth losing sleep over any of it.
Click to expand...

Although, it would be great for me if Easy WDW was right about the Wednesday of my trip lol... EC and MK are both "green" that day, and EC is where we are spending the day, and then MK is where we have dinner ADR's so I'm hoping I can talk DH into spending a little more time at MK after dinner lol.
 
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StarWarsGirl

StarWarsGirl

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
I would worry less about what touring plans says and more about rules of thumb.

1. Don't go to MK on a weekend or Friday unless you have a special reason to (EMH, ride going down for refurb by end of weekend, etc.)
2. Do not go to DHS on a weekend, especially in May and June, unless you are participating in SWW
3. Animal Kingdom is best done on a weekend rather than a weekday (I know, a little backwards). We like doing it on a Sunday and pairing it with a MK evening EMH
4. MK and DHS are best Tues-Thurs., though Mondays aren't absolutely terrible.
5. Epcot is also good on a weekend because even in high crowds, you can still get a lot done. It's also a good Friday or Monday park. If you're worried about F&W, leave it until it's over
6. Don't do a water park on a weekend unless that's absolutely the best day weather-wise.
7. Don't go to DHS or AK on an EMH day, only do Epcot or MK on EMH days if you plan on utilizing EMH

I find the estimates to usually be wrong. I would go by the rules of thumb instead. It's tough to tell the exact crowds, especially months out, but in my experience going different times of the year, this is how it cycles.
 
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S

Susan Savia

Well-Known Member
I don't look at a preprinted book to tell me what the parks are doing on a certain day. Mostly, we just know that on Friday's, Saturday's and Sunday's in any park (especially on a holiday weekend or special event like Star Wars) it's going to be busy. We avoid the park that has the Extra hours.
 
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Sparkle81

Sparkle81

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Really, really helpful responses, thank you guys :)

I guess we can use our experiences from our last trip to help us decide what to do. Yep, MK on the Saturday was a big mistake (not helped by the parade taping too!), so we will probably use that day to do some shopping, have a leisurely breakfast and enjoy some time at the resort (WL). Common sense is important too, I guess- steering clear of F&W on the final weekend is a no brainer really. I'm going to take all of your advice & take this projected attendances with a pinch of salt, and focus on my tour plans instead. Thank you!
 
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PARichards

PARichards

Active Member
Firstly, great thread for validating my own brand of crazy obsessive planning.

Second... I needed to read this. TY. :)
StarWarsGirl95 said:
I would worry less about what touring plans says and more about rules of thumb.

4. MK and DHS are best Tues-Thurs., though Mondays aren't absolutely terrible.
...
I find the estimates to usually be wrong. I would go by the rules of thumb instead. It's tough to tell the exact crowds, especially months out, but in my experience going different times of the year, this is how it cycles.
Click to expand...
 
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dreamfinder

dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
They all have their own special sauce. They each provide different weights to things that may or may not change. But one must wonder, by publishing the crowd estimates, in their very nature are the crowd estimates going to be wrong? If they say that MK will be a low crowd day, don't they then help to persuade some people to go to MK that would have otherwise gone elsewhere? Possibly changing it from a 2 to a 4?
 
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P

Philo

Well-Known Member
I'm surprised that people have found them to be way off. Obviously they are not guaranteed accurate but when I have used them, I found the advice to be pretty solid. In fact, on the last trip I found that whenever I ignored the advice, I always regretted it.
 
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Cubfan300

Cubfan300

Active Member
dreamfinder said:
They all have their own special sauce. They each provide different weights to things that may or may not change. But one must wonder, by publishing the crowd estimates, in their very nature are the crowd estimates going to be wrong? If they say that MK will be a low crowd day, don't they then help to persuade some people to go to MK that would have otherwise gone elsewhere? Possibly changing it from a 2 to a 4?
Click to expand...
Based on their own statements in the FAQ, they realize that although a good number of people utilize their planning tool, not enough do so to move the needle.
 
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