Rumor Higher Speed Rail from MCO to Disney World

Disone

Well-Known Member
When the agreement was made the exact route had not yet been chosen. Brightline was still working out whether or not they would follow FL-417 or the old Florida High Speed Rail route. You can find CFX meeting presentations in this thread showing this work and evaluation of the two routes.
The preferred route was clear though. There were two options and bright line was clear that they preferred the hunters Creek option. And then came the opposition.
 

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
Governor Newsom already cancelled any further expansion of California's high speed rail system beyond that segment, so no mega-engineering through mountains and canyons will likely ever take place.
Ah! I didn’t realize that. What a mess. I do think it’s smart to build true HSR in California, but they have got to get something running ASAP. That was a smart move from Brightline, they started running short trips early on and have gradually expanded service.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
The preferred route was clear though. There were two options and bright line was clear that they preferred the hunters Creek option. And then came the opposition.
They preferred it because it was half the cost and had a direct connection to SunRail (passenger access and the ability to lease track access to the airport). The local desire to serve more areas wasn’t some huge shock, but it had issues of cost and connections to SunRail. Brightline was in a pick two of three scenario and this new route figured out a way to do all three.
 

Disone

Well-Known Member
They preferred it because it was half the cost and had a direct connection to SunRail (passenger access and the ability to lease track access to the airport). The local desire to serve more areas wasn’t some huge shock, but it had issues of cost and connections to SunRail. Brightline was in a pick two of three scenario and this new route figured out a way to do all three.
And in doing so they lost the business reason for doing the project in the first place. Feeling that gap between two far to drive and too close to fly for the Disney market. And again, despite what Universal fans want to say, the Disney market is infinitely larger than the universal market. By adding on Universal they got a much smaller pie in exchange for giving up a much larger pie. It can still work though. South Florida can take the train to the airport and then from their find transportation to Disney. Just as anyone flying into the airport will do.

I'm sure brightline will be reaching out to mears connect and to Sunshine flyer to see if they are willing to provide services to/from the Disney adjacent station and Occc.

I'm interested to see how it all works out.
 

bpiper

Well-Known Member

FDOT has a small project page showing where a station near Disney could be located. Really kills the idea that the route is no longer near Disney.
I just took a look at the website. They have a link under Project Resources to the Roaming Railfan's drone videos up on YouTube of the Brightline construction.....

Where on the site does is show the the location of a Disney station? I couldn't find it.
 

bpiper

Well-Known Member
I saw that, but was hoping for something a little more defined. That description covers a large area. Although the good thing is that it's all undeveloped cattle land.
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Ah! I didn’t realize that. What a mess.

California High Speed Rail is a textbook case of big government doing things very, very badly.

After 15 years and Billions of dollars spent with nothing to show for it, even a diehard like Gavin Newsom knew he had to pull the plug. California High Speed rail is dead. (Unless you want to wait another decade and you need to get from Merced to Bakersfield in a hurry)

I do think it’s smart to build true HSR in California, but they have got to get something running ASAP. That was a smart move from Brightline, they started running short trips early on and have gradually expanded service.

Brightline is a textbook case of small government relying on private industry to do things well.

Brightline is the first private passenger rail system opened in this country in over 50 years. And it's fresh, and modern, and clean, and hip, and well run. And it goes places people want to go. Aimed at a Sweet Spot market of "Too far to drive, too short to fly" which is the only real market passenger rail can work in this sprawling country. Bravo, Brightline! 😃
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
The number of conventioneers coming to the Orange county convention center honestly is not that impressive compared to the number of visitors coming to the local theme parks. The Orange county convention center comes in at about 1.5 million annual visits.

In 2019, Universal came in with its two parks at 21,297,000 visits. Meanwhile, the Disney parks came in at $58,778,000 visits. The Magic Kingdom alone had over 20 million visits. Almost the same as the two universal parks combined.
How much $ does Florida get from 1 family visiting WDW? How much investment does Florida get when CEO's visit?

Families might spend a few thousand, but that is nothing compared to the millions that corporations spend when they choose to locate a large office in FL.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
I just took a look at the website. They have a link under Project Resources to the Roaming Railfan's drone videos up on YouTube of the Brightline construction.....

Where on the site does is show the the location of a Disney station? I couldn't find it.
The map. It doesn’t show a specific location but it shows the route and a general area. What it really shows is that these few claims of “the facts” that the route changed and no longer goes near Disney Springs are not true. The route very much still goes by Disney Springs. Yes, the line is drawn on the east side of I-4 but it’s a diagram to show that it’s not at Disney. The project is too early to claim that line is an actual alignment.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
How much $ does Florida get from 1 family visiting WDW? How much investment does Florida get when CEO's visit?

Families might spend a few thousand, but that is nothing compared to the millions that corporations spend when they choose to locate a large office in FL.
Huh? Why would Brightline service to the Orange County Conventiom Center be a factor in relocating a company to Florida?
 

bpiper

Well-Known Member
I have a theory.

Notice on that map that FDOT is the corridor owner from rt 528 until rt 536. From there to Tampa, its Brightline as the owner.
The Sunshine corridor proposal has said that SunRail would lease running rights to Brightline over their tracks.
I suspect that this is the way that they have to play it to get the federal funding. It has to go to a government sponsored group, not a private company.
Since Sunshine corridor has stated that it runs to Disney, then Brightline is leasing running rights basically from their maintenance facility at the airport all the way to Disney.
After Disney, Brightline is the owner and paying for construction.

This means:

1. Brightline is saving about 2 Billion dollars on construction costs in building the MCO to Disney segment. No wonder they are excited. Granted, they have to pay yearly running rights, but that is over time, and not all at once. This also explains why they are content with the delay in construction this is causing. Wait several years to save 2 Billion?

2. With all the guaranteed costs that Universal and the I drive group are covering, even more savings.

3. I think that the the feds wouldn't allow the southern end of SunRail to terminate on Disney property. It would have to be a public location. This would also help in the grant justification. They can now claim that the Disney station services the immediate area also. Bringing more customers. Lynx can run routes from the station to local employment corridors getting people to their jobs.

4. It explains why the planning group for the Sunshine corridor included everyone but Disney. The group knew that they couldn't terminate on their property to get the federal grants, so there was no reason to include them. They are basically like any other business in the area. They can get people from the station via Lynx routes or run their own shuttle to the station.

5. This could also explain why Disney seems to be upset. Not because of the Universal stop, but because they lost the stop being on their property.

6. This could also explain what Disney means by the route shifted. In their eyes, it did. It shifted to rt 528 and the sunshine corridor which allows federal grant dollars to pay for it, but requires the Disney station to shift off property.

Just a theory. Feel free to commence ripping it to shreds. :)
 

Disone

Well-Known Member
Brightline didn't choose Universal over Disney. It choose Universal/I-Drive AND Disney.
Aware which is why I was discussing the attendance numbers of both the orange kind of convention center and Universal versus Disney.

I'm using 2019's numbers because 2020s were extremely limited due to COVID. But they tell a similar story on scale. Approximately 23 million annual visits to the Orange county convention center and Universal combined versus approximately 58 million annual visits to Disney.
How much $ does Florida get from 1 family visiting WDW? How much investment does Florida get when CEO's visit?

Families might spend a few thousand, but that is nothing compared to the millions that corporations spend when they choose to locate a large office in FL.

Huh? Why would Brightline service to the Orange County Conventiom Center be a factor in relocating a company to Florida?
I thought we were conversing about the number of people who are potential users of the brightline train. 🤪
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
I have a theory.

Notice on that map that FDOT is the corridor owner from rt 528 until rt 536. From there to Tampa, its Brightline as the owner.
The Sunshine corridor proposal has said that SunRail would lease running rights to Brightline over their tracks.
I suspect that this is the way that they have to play it to get the federal funding. It has to go to a government sponsored group, not a private company.
Since Sunshine corridor has stated that it runs to Disney, then Brightline is leasing running rights basically from their maintenance facility at the airport all the way to Disney.
After Disney, Brightline is the owner and paying for construction.

This means:

1. Brightline is saving about 2 Billion dollars on construction costs in building the MCO to Disney segment. No wonder they are excited. Granted, they have to pay yearly running rights, but that is over time, and not all at once. This also explains why they are content with the delay in construction this is causing. Wait several years to save 2 Billion?

2. With all the guaranteed costs that Universal and the I drive group are covering, even more savings.

3. I think that the the feds wouldn't allow the southern end of SunRail to terminate on Disney property. It would have to be a public location. This would also help in the grant justification. They can now claim that the Disney station services the immediate area also. Bringing more customers. Lynx can run routes from the station to local employment corridors getting people to their jobs.

4. It explains why the planning group for the Sunshine corridor included everyone but Disney. The group knew that they couldn't terminate on their property to get the federal grants, so there was no reason to include them. They are basically like any other business in the area. They can get people from the station via Lynx routes or run their own shuttle to the station.

5. This could also explain why Disney seems to be upset. Not because of the Universal stop, but because they lost the stop being on their property.

6. This could also explain what Disney means by the route shifted. In their eyes, it did. It shifted to rt 528 and the sunshine corridor which allows federal grant dollars to pay for it, but requires the Disney station to shift off property.

Just a theory. Feel free to commence ripping it to shreds. :)
Brightline is not saving on the construction costs. They’re providing funds towards the Sunshine Corridor. The funding from Universal and the other area businesses has always been rather small, barely making a difference in the cost difference between the original route proposals.

If the land ownership was an issue, there are ways around that. At least for now, an easy one would have been moving the land to the Reedy Creek Improvement District. They also could have explored things like selling to the county with deed restrictions so that Disney retained a level of control. Exterior modifications at Shades of Green requires the Army to go get permission from Disney. Even things like the new elementary school down in Celebration involved Disney agreeing to the design.

Lynx already provides service to Disney Springs.

I’m not sure why Disney would have been involved in the route planning. Disney was the destination. If Disney always had an issue with the alignment the time to say something was long ago, not after all of this work went into working out a new route.
 

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
Brightline is the first private passenger rail system opened in this country in over 50 years. And it's fresh, and modern, and clean, and hip, and well run. And it goes places people want to go. Aimed at a Sweet Spot market of "Too far to drive, too short to fly" which is the only real market passenger rail can work in this sprawling country. Bravo, Brightline! 😃
How do you feel about the Pacific Surfliner?
 

Disone

Well-Known Member
How do you feel about the Pacific Surfliner?
You didn't ask me but Pacific surfliner is a project and collaboration between Amtrak and caltrans. The states, department of transportation And I think it turned out great. I hope brightline has just as much success as Pacific surfliner. It's one of Amtrak's most successful projects. But I don't know that it's profitable on its own. To my limited knowledge in Amtrak, the only part of Amtrak that is profitable on its own is the northeast corridor and Specifically the Acela.

Let's hope a bright line can mimic that profitability.
 

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
You didn't ask me but Pacific surfliner is a project and collaboration between Amtrak and caltrans. The states, department of transportation And I think it turned out great. I hope brightline has just as much success as Pacific surfliner. It's one of Amtrak's most successful projects. But I don't know that it's profitable on its own. To my limited knowledge in Amtrak, the only part of Amtrak that is profitable on its own is the northeast corridor and Specifically the Acela.

Let's hope a bright line can mimic that profitability.
I agree, I think it’s very well done. Yes, it’s funded by the state of California and is not profitable. Just like all other forms of public transit in California... and the rest of the world with some rare exceptions.
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
Aware which is why I was discussing the attendance numbers of both the orange kind of convention center and Universal versus Disney.

I'm using 2019's numbers because 2020s were extremely limited due to COVID. But they tell a similar story on scale. Approximately 23 million annual visits to the Orange county convention center and Universal combined versus approximately 58 million annual visits to Disney.



I thought we were conversing about the number of people who are potential users of the brightline train. 🤪
I was going to write a longer post, but edited down. Sorry, I probably cut too much.

2019:
MK had 21.0million visitors
AK 13.9 million
Epcot 12.4 million
HS 11.4 million

Simply adding 21 +13.9 +12.4 +11.4 = 58.7 million, but park attendance has little to do with how many people would use the train.
Most people who visit WDW visit more than 1 park.
People park hop.
A large percent of WDW visitors drive to WDW via personal car, rental car, paid transportation.

We also don't know how much a train would change attendance to either destination.
 

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