Rich Brownn
Well-Known Member
Well, they must be doing something right, since the MIA-WPB route unexpectedly turned a profit
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Rumor Higher Speed Rail from MCO to Disney World
- Thread starter UCF
- Start date
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
It’s definitely a long term investment, it’ll probably take 30 years to pay off the construction loan, as long as they’re turning a profit while they do it though that’s all that matters.
Twirlnhurl
Well-Known Member
There is also freight on these lines.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
I think I'd like Price Waterhouse to glance at those results and vet them.....
Or at least hope the reporting lacked specificity
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
But did Brightline retain ownership of the line or the FEC when they were spun off?
This isn’t a standalone venture. Brightline is still part of Florida East Coast Industries, which is owned by Fortress Investment Group, itself owned by SoftBank.
The 4.3 million passengers is their desired minimum and the ticket price you have is just the economy level ticket, they also sell first class tickets. There are also concessions, including alcohol, sold on board and at stations. They’ll be receiving fees from Tri-Rail for access into Miami Central Station and the commuter rail service they been commissioned to establish along their route in South Florida. The real estate they’ve been developing is also not nothing.
CntrlFlPete
Well-Known Member
you forgot to account for the bar.
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
There wouldn’t be any need for that.
The freight business is separate.
I doubt the f&b is even breaking even, it rarely does on transit. It is an amenity, not a source of revenue.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Why not? A loaded train will experience different dynamic forces than an empty one, it accelerates slower and takes longer to stop. If they are testing the PTC I would hope they test under dynamic conditions.
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
Not really. The weight of passengers doesn’t really affect anything. Weather conditions have way more of an effect on train handling.
PTC is about engineers following signal and speed restrictions.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
This isn’t a freight train. A Siemens Charger locomotive weighs 260,000 lbs. A Siemens Venture railcar weights 112,000 lbs. even a full, economy only trains of people weight 300 lbs would only be a 9% increase in weight. That’s a not a huge order of magnitude of difference. It’s something that can be calculated and accounted for when they designed the system.
Rich Brownn
Well-Known Member
Since lying would involve the SEC among others, I am pretty sure they aren't cooking the books.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Yeah but there are ways to show profit in a quarter that really isn't there legally
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
I’ve ridden the train a few times and it’s pretty crowded and the prices aren’t particularly cheap so I don’t think it’s a crazy idea that they are making money.
And of course the business is built on being profitable from real estate as well.
And of course the business is built on being profitable from real estate as well.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Great, I just want to know how the math works with 4.3M riders/trips
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
It is a minimum, the bottom of their projections and not a maximum.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
I hope so, this is sounding like a real estate company that likes to play with trains. Did you see Kushner is building near the Ft Lauderdale station? Price must be right if Brightline sold 150K sq ft of commercial space there for 37M
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
regional theme parks like Dollywood only get 3M a year. 4.3 M riders is a lot!
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Twirlnhurl
Well-Known Member
I am not exactly sure how the Brightline / FEC / Fortress / Softbank relationships work out. But we can be absolutely certain that the capital costs will be paid by every portion of those companies who extract value from the existence of that infrastructure.
If those 4.3 million trips have a per capita revenue of $60 each, that would mean passenger revenue would be $258 million per year.
Brightline has $3.7 billion in outstanding bonds, and is likely to refinance within a year of the Orlando extension opening, according to an article in The Bond Buyer.
Apparently, debt service payments over the next five years total $252 million a year on average. And apparently the debt matures in 2049.
Also, Brightline anticipates "$50 million in upfront payments and annual access payments for 30 years starting at $12 million annually" from Miami-Dade County so Tri-Rail can run on Brightline / FEC tracks into Miami.
It certainly is conceivable that Brightline could pay their bonds with the combination of fares and payments from other users of the track.
The Brightline Quarterly Financial Statement from June of this year can be found here. I am not an accountant, so I would hesitate to say anything with confidence about it. But if someone watching this forum knows more about this stuff, I would love to learn more about what is in this.
I am eagerly awaiting the beginning of Brightline passenger service to Orlando, but I also understand that interest rates aren't what they used to be. So I am not certain about the financial soundness of the service in the current financing environment. My back of the envelope check makes me think it has a decent shot of penciling out, though.