At the risk of straying too far off-topic, I think the development forecasting around Deseret Ranch as described in that link is a little too blue-sky and unlikely to materialize in 60 years when there's still far more development opportunity to be had in more centrally located segments of the wider region.
I'm not so sure. The population of the greater Orlando region has been increasing by about 1,500 people per week for the last decade (and over 1,000 people a week since 1950). The population is expected to continue to grow like that in the future. If that holds, the regions population will reach 5.2 million by 2030, an increase of almost 1 million people (see
this report, page 5). About 300k of that increase is expected in Osceola County, where the first phases of the Deseret Ranch development has already been approved. (although by 2030, I think only a small fraction of that 300k will be on Deseret Ranch land. But I think that the speed of the growth in Horizon West over the last ten years and Lake Nona over the last 20 makes 2060 seem totally plausible to me, especially considering the proximity to some of the aerospace and defense industries that have been growing quite healthily in Brevard County lately.
My understanding is that additional track and platform space reserved for SunRail is already provisioned in the Intermodal Terminal itself.
If the third track at MCO was not used by SunRail, it could be used by a frequent commuter service on the Brightline right-of-way (although the railroads that operate best practices outside of the US could probably make due running both services on the same tracks and platforms without needing the third track, that does not appear to be the way Brightline is going to operate the Miami Central Station when Tri-Rail begins service to it in the near future).
Should Brightline end up taking the 528 routing, it will still be possible to go ahead with phase 3 to the airport, and I suspect that money will be found for it quickly. I actually suspect that money will be found for it as part of an infrastructure funding package in the near future regardless of what happens with Brightline.
The
MetroPlan Orlando 2045 Cost Feasible Plan budgets construction for SunRail Phase 3 (MCO to Meadow Woods) in the 2035 to 2045 planning horizon (see page 138).
I think that Brightline will be open to Disney Springs (and possibly Tampa or have gome bankrupt) long before SunRail phase 3 gets funded, even with a couple more massive federal infrastructure bills. But I admit I haven't been following that very closely, so I might just be wrong here.
(I am aware that one alternative currently proposed for this suggests that instead of utilizing the already-built ability to run trains to the OUC spur and therefore the airport with zero transfers, a separated shuttle line with a forced transfer would be built instead. I'm choosing to be cautiously optimistic that this alternative will be discarded.) This takes them a few miles out of their way, yes, but the time saved by the convenient and coordinated transfer at MCO makes up for it and this is still only a two-seat ride between any SunRail station and any Brightline station.
I think I disagree on this one. Unless the service frequency is extremely high (unlikely, even with Orlando's rapid growth), I would strongly prefer a two seat ride to the airport. Imagine if SunRail had a train pass through downtown every twenty minutes each direction (anything more frequent would require additional signal infrastructure, possibly electric multiple unit trains, and potentially double tracking the short single track section in Winter Park). If half the trains went to MCO and the other half went to Poinciana, that would mean you are effectively only providing 40 minute headways to points south of Sand Lake Road for the northern portion of the line (likewise for the southern portion, even if a Poinciana to MCO direct service was offered).
A train out of MCO every 20 minutes all day would conceivably attract lots of riders, even with a simple cross platform transfer. But a train every 40 minutes (to SunRail points north) would be far less attractive. What if your plane lands five minutes late or baggage claim takes forever or you work at the airport and there was a line to clock out because Steve doesn't know how to work the timeclock even though he has worked there for six months and it's a wonder he even gets paid...
I lived and worked in a transit-rich area for a while, and had the option of taking a one-seat or two seat train ride to work. Every second train was a one seat ride, with the one seat trains coming every 14 minutes. There was a two seat combination of trains that would leave every 14 minutes, seven minutes after the one seat train. If I missed the one seat train, the two seat train ride would get me to my destination two minutes faster than if I waited seven more minutes for the one seat train. I took whichever train was next, because a simple cross platform transfer was not as inconvenient as waiting at the origin station for seven more minutes. I observed most people did the same. So I think the transfer penalty (excluding people with excessive luggage or small children) is extremely small for most people compared to the penalty for long headways.
I guess that's a long way of saying I'd rather have a train every 20 minutes take me to Sand Lake or Meadow Woods where a SunRail train with a timed connection in both directions was waiting for an easy cross platform transfer.
Regardless of which routing gets chosen, I don't really consider dedicated bus lanes to be a transit facility.
I agree that paint is cheap and real (useful) transit service requires more than just paint. But if the facility exists and is used by frequent and rapid service, they can have lots of value. I don't think we necessarily disagree here, though.
Regardless of what happens in the broader region, it is exciting to see rapid transit back on the table to serve the major resorts. Even with I-4 Beyond the Ultimate, traffic is not going to get better almost any way you slice it. And this infrastructure has a good chance of providing an additional option when these roads are maxed out and congested.
