Rumor Higher Speed Rail from MCO to Disney World

[Bob Harlem]

The Cocoa/Port Canaveral station is a go. It's going to be on US-1 by 528 in Cocoa right where the railway merges onto the Florida East Coast Railway from the new track between the Orlando airport and US-1. It means a quick hop over Merritt Island to get to the cruise ships in Port Canaveral. If The Disney Springs (or across I-4) station opens it means a rail to get most of the way to the cruise port (or back...)

Brightline gives green light to Cocoa stop for its Orlando-to-Miami passenger rail service

"This is as transformative a project as the city of Cocoa will ever see," said Cocoa City Manager Stockton Whitten.

www.floridatoday.com

 

[DCBaker]

Some details in a new article from the Orlando Business Journal on the Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission meeting held today.

If you'd like to review slides from the presentation like the one below, find them at this link.

Here's the article:

A Florida Department of Transportation-led study estimates the SunRail/Brightline Sunshine Corridor project could cost between $3.54 billion to $4.78 billion.

That's according to cost and ridership estimates presented by representatives with the transportation agency during the April 25 Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission Meeting. Ridership for the routes is estimated based on a 2026 opening, but that timeline has not been locked in.

The SunRail regional commuter rail service and the Brightline intercity rail to Miami have each spurred discussions for more rail connections.

SunRail currently averages roughly 1 million in ridership per year, and Brightline's service from its launch on Sept. 22, 2023, through March 31 estimates 676,636 customers have traveled between its Orlando International Airport station to Miami.

Here's more on the proposed connections — all costs are preliminary and might change:

• Connection from existing SunRail route to Orlando International Airport: Estimated total ridership for SunRail would grow to 3.7 million in 2026 and to 5.2 million in 2040. The initial capital cost would be more than $400 million to connect to the airport, with annual costs of $41.5 million to operate.
• From existing SunRail to Orlando International Airport to Orange Convention Center:Total ridership on SunRail for the entire connection would reach 4.4 million in 2026 and 6.2 million in 2040. The expansion from the airport to the convention center would have a capital cost of $1.75 billion to $2.4 billion, with $23.2 million in annual operating costs.
• From existing SunRail to Orlando International Airport to Orange County Convention Center to South International Drive: Ridership on the entire route would be 5.4 million in 2026 and 7.9 million in 2040. The convention center to south I-Drive route would cost $1.22 billion to $1.74 billion and have annual operating costs of $10 million.
• From existing SunRail to Orlando International Airport to Orange County Convention Center to South International Drive to Disney Springs: The study also looked at the potential to connect to Disney Springs from south International Drive. Ridership on that type of connection would be 6.4 million in 2026 and 9.4 million in 2040. There would be a capital cost between Disney Springs and south I-Drive of $173 million to $247 million. Annual operating costs would be $200,000.

In addition, a transfer station connecting the existing route to the expansion would add between $29 million and $39 million in capital costs.

FDOT District 5 Secretary John Tyler said during the meeting that the next steps would include going to the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) to see how much federal money the project could get and bring back FTA funding information to the SunRail board this summer.

Any such funds would be in addition to money from Miami-based Brightline and other private partners like Universal, which have pledged funds and land for a convention center station.

"We believe the [ridership] numbers are underestimated," Tyler said. "They are not capturing all of the folks who would enjoy having a premium transportation choice in their visit to Central Florida or for people who live here and want to use SunRail to enjoy the things Central Florida has to offer."

Tyler said the cost for the corridor is large, but other "transformational transportation" projects like Terminal C at Orlando International Airport and Brightline's Orlando expansion also cost a lot and provide value to the region.

Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, who sits on the board, said the city of Orlando is 100% supportive of the route. "Hopefully we take away from this [that] the public wants it, the ridership is there and there is FTA money available."

Seminole County Commissioner Amy Lockhart and Volusia County Council Member Jeff Brower, also board members, both expressed excitement about the potential ridership, but wanted to make sure that they had more cost information to bring back to their respective county boards.

"We're going to have to figure out where the money will come from, and because there are a lot of needs, and that is going to be a challenge," Lockhart said.

Orange County Mayor and Board Member Jerry Demings said the success of the plan will be dependent on federal, state, local and private dollars to make it happen.

https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2024/04/25/sunrail-sunshine-corridor-cost-ridership-brightlin.html

 

[DCBaker]

Another article on the meeting today from the Orlando Sentinel:

Expanding SunRail to Orlando’s airport and the region’s tourism corridor would boost ridership at least sixfold in the first year of operation but come at an eye-popping cost of about $4 billion, state officials said Thursday in providing their first public projections for the commuter train’s next phase.

“There’s a lot of sharpening of the pencil to determine the true cost of this project,” said John Tyler, secretary of the Florida’s Department of Transportation’s Central Florida district, speaking to local mayors and city commissioners on SunRail’s board. Those costs would have to come from the taxpayers, with a combination of local, state and federal funding, as well as significant private contributions.

But Tyler was quick to argue the merits of what he called “transformational transportation projects” to Central Florida, citing the $2.3 billion overhaul of Interstate 4, construction of the $1.6 billon Wekiva Parkway, completion of the Orlando airport’s $3.2 billion Terminal C and Brightline’s start of service last year between Miami and Orlando.

Tyler said his department’s yearlong study, finding that linking SunRail to airport and tourism stops would increase ridership from the current 1 million annually to 6 million annually, is likely to be an underestimate.

“And when you look at the outer years, it is very significant,” Tyler said, pointing to an estimate of 9.4 million riders by 2040. “That’s an extremely positive result from this study.”

Response from the board was mixed and largely reserved. Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer had the most positive reaction. “I am more excited about possibilities for SunRail in the future than, quite honestly, I have ever been,” Dyer said.

Seminole County Commissioner Amy Lockhart took a lead in addressing money worries. “We are not a bottomless pit of money,” she said.

Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said his county’s transportation needs — including roads, rail and pedestrian projects — add up to a staggering cost that cannot be afforded without a dedicated source of funding, such as an increase in sales tax that he has backed previously and unsuccessfully.

Without such funding, Orange County’s support of expanding SunRail would be “difficult,” he said.

Sunrail’s currently existing north-south, 49-mile corridor with 16 stations through Volusia, Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties, running roughly parallel to Interstate 4, will be completed this summer with the opening of a final segment of 12 miles between DeBary and a new station in DeLand.

Local and state officials contend that SunRail needs the airport and tourism links to blossom into a thriving public transportation option with late night and weekend hours. Its current schedule offers neither.

The airport and tourism links, including track, stations and trains, are embodied in the proposed “Sunshine Corridor” project under consideration for the past two years.

The study unveiled by the state transportation department Thursday depicts several scenarios. Connecting SunRail to just the airport, for example, would cost an estimated $400 million and boost annual ridership to a projected 3.7 million.

The Sunshine Corridor is drawing support from Universal Studios Orlando, which has committed to providing land for a station and other incentives, and Brightline Trains, which wants to expand its current intercity service from Orlando’s airport to Tampa by using the corridor.

Walt Disney World has been absent from Sunshine Corridor discussions for the past two years, including during the recent dispute between Gov. Ron DeSantis and Disney over control of the attractions giant’s governing body, now called the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District.

But Brightline has long been interested in a station at Disney. The Sunshine Corridor study unveiled Thursday depicts riders and costs associated with a stop at Disney Springs.

“In the past, Disney has expressed to the department that they are very interested in expanding SunRail to Disney,” Tyler said. “We have continued to focus on getting a connection to that point. It makes sense from a transportation standpoint and we have no reason to believe we shouldn’t be pursuing that.”

The initial step is straightforward. Tyler said the Florida Department of Transportation will immediately engage with the Federal Transit Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation to explore pathways for securing grants.

Conventional thinking about funding the Sunshine Corridor, Tyler said, mirrors funding so far for SunRail: costs would be split with 25 percent for local sources, including private investors, 25 percent for state support and the rest for federal grants.

But exactly how to pursue that federal assistance remains unclear, Tyler said. There will be a key requirement that the Sunshine Corridor initiative provides a project development and environment study.

That could cost about $6 million, Tyler said, and the Florida Department of Transportation will seek to provide $2 million for the study.

None of the SunRail commission members responded directly to whether they would help pay for the project’s environmental study, or its development.

“Probably the biggest concern is where does the money come from,” said Volusia County Council Chairman Jeff Brower, a member of the SunRail Commission, of the Sunshine Corridor.

SunRail link to airport, theme parks would multiply riders and cost billions

A $4 billion construction pricetag raises daunting question of who will pay to build and operate it.

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[rio]

I love to travel around, and I prefer to travel to cities with good public transit. Trains are preferred, but frequent high speed buses are also fine.

Part of the reason I love Disney is that I don’t need a car to get around. It’s the place that taught me such a thing is possible. However I cannot visit Universal, Seaworld, or other Orlando attractions and events easily. Changing to Universal/Seaworld/Downtown is expensive, and the time required to do so is only going up as the region continues to develop.

If the farthest of the lines can somehow get funded that would be a dream come true, and make traveling to Florida more attractive for myself and international visitors. Visiting Miami AND Orlando over the span of 2 weeks would be like visiting multiple cities in the NEC, or overseas in Europe and Asia.

 

[Twirlnhurl]

Still reading the report, but this line in the Sentinel jumped out at me:

"Connecting SunRail to just the airport, for example, would cost an estimated $400 million and boost annual ridership to a projected 3.7 million."

How do they get to $400 million for that!?

They don't need to build any tracks, and the tracks they need to use are owned by OUC, a city-owned utility!

Are an extra couple trainsets, signaling upgrades, MCO station finishes, and signage really that expensive?! Prices have gone up a lot over the past few years, but I feel like this should be like $80 million worth of stuff!

 

[Big_Shakalaka]

I thought MCO to Disney was completely taken off the table a few years ago. So, It's back to being an option again?

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

I thought MCO to Disney was completely taken off the table a few years ago. So, It's back to being an option again?

The only thing taken off the table was a station “on Disney property” but that station was barely going to be on property over by Disney Springs. They can still have a station in virtually the same place - just not technically on property.

 

[lentesta]

I thought MCO to Disney was completely taken off the table a few years ago. So, It's back to being an option again?

The love of light rail from the airport to theme park hotels is ubiquitous.

Wait ... is "ubiquitous" the right term for "in all cases?" You know how I mix up my words sometimes.

 

[Lilofan]

Still reading the report, but this line in the Sentinel jumped out at me:

"Connecting SunRail to just the airport, for example, would cost an estimated $400 million and boost annual ridership to a projected 3.7 million."

How do they get to $400 million for that!?

They don't need to build any tracks, and the tracks they need to use are owned by OUC, a city-owned utility!

Are an extra couple trainsets, signaling upgrades, MCO station finishes, and signage really that expensive?! Prices have gone up a lot over the past few years, but I feel like this should be like $80 million worth of stuff!

Mayor Jerry will stick it to the tourists and locals ( ie increasing taxes of living and vacation spending ) to help fund.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Mayor Jerry will stick it to the tourists and locals ( ie increasing taxes of living and vacation spending ) to help fund.

That’s exactly what taxes are supposed to pay for - infrastructure like transportation

 

[Batman'sParents]

New interesting development: https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2024/04/26/disney-springs-sunrail-station.html


Walt Disney World has signaled they are open to having an on-property SunRail station.

The company in an unsigned statement to Orlando Business Journal said they would be open to discuss a potential station at Disney Springs. The shared Sunshine Corridor between Miami-based Brightline and the Central Florida commuter rail system would include stops at Orlando International Airport, Orange County Convention Center and South International Drive.


“We have long been open to discussions around the proposed SunRail expansion to Disney Springs and have been engaged with state and community leaders on the topic," Disney wrote in a statement. "This is not to be confused with the agreement we previously had for a Brightline station that Brightline decided not to pursue.”



Brightline had proposed a Disney Springs station in 2019, but that plan ended in 2022 after the proposed route for Brightline changed from along State Road 417 to go closer to International Drive.

Meanwhile, the Florida Department of Transportation on April 25 presented cost and ridership estimates on the corridor, expected to cost up to $4.78 billion. The presentation included the potential for a Disney Springs station, which could cost $173 million to $247 million to build.

The move would come as the corridor has already drawn other partners tied to stations. Universal Orlando Resort has already pledged land for the convention center station and through a taxing district will provide funding for the infrastructure.

Orange County Mayor and SunRail Board Member Jerry Demings said during the April 25 that the success of the corridor plan will be dependent on federal, state, local and private dollars to make it happen.

 

[trainplane3]

New interesting development: https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2024/04/26/disney-springs-sunrail-station.html


Walt Disney World has signaled they are open to having an on-property SunRail station.

*Until SunRail talks to Universal, then it's back to square one.

 

[lazyboy97o]

*Until SunRail talks to Universal, then it's back to square one.

Universal is behind the whole Sunshine Corridor and blocking Brightline from taking their preferred route along FL-417. Given this flip flopping it suggests Iger has been open to rail connections but Chapek opposed it.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Universal is behind the whole Sunshine Corridor and blocking Brightline from taking their preferred route along FL-417. Given this flip flopping it suggests Iger has been open to rail connections but Chapek opposed it.

Wouldn’t we be much further along if Universal hadn’t gotten in the way? This shouldn’t have anything to do with Universal and Brightline… Brightline should build on their preferred route and if Universal wants sun rail they can pay for it.

Or is that a really incorrect take on this whole thing?

 

[trainplane3]

Universal is behind the whole Sunshine Corridor and blocking Brightline from taking their preferred route along FL-417. Given this flip flopping it suggests Iger has been open to rail connections but Chapek opposed it.

That's good to hear. I was just basing my statement off of what happened in the past. I hope it works out since it can only benefit everyone.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Wouldn’t we be much further along if Universal hadn’t gotten in the way? This shouldn’t have anything to do with Universal and Brightline… Brightline should build on their preferred route and if Universal wants sun rail they can pay for it.

Or is that a really incorrect take on this whole thing?

I’m not sure it’d be very far along with how Brightline has repeatedly been very optimistic about their plans.

But Universal did mount the opposition to Brightline getting approval to build along FL-417. They very much set back the project and more than was necessary at that. Universal could have cleanly offered to partner with Brightline and provide the required funding for their desired route. Instead they helped concoct this plan with SunRail so that everything must start over and now run through the bureaucracy of more local governments and agencies.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Instead they helped concoct this plan with SunRail so that everything must start over and now run through the bureaucracy of more local governments and agencies.

That’s my issue - this was going to move forward with Brightline money - now it’s likely to never happen because of all the government agencies involved.

 

[Twirlnhurl]

Wouldn’t we be much further along if Universal hadn’t gotten in the way? This shouldn’t have anything to do with Universal and Brightline… Brightline should build on their preferred route and if Universal wants sun rail they can pay for it.

Or is that a really incorrect take on this whole thing?

I think that Universal contributed to the coalition that includes the county, city, and I-drive businesses that didn't want to be bypassed.

Earlier in this thread I indicated that the selection of the Sunshine Corridor reduced the odds of train service to Disney and Tampa to the low single digits. I still think that is right. But Universal isn't the only party who wants their choice or nothing.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Nobody should feel “bypassed” by an Orlando to Tampa route. If they want sun rail to serve I drive and universal great - that would be lovely.

 

[Twirlnhurl]

Nobody should feel “bypassed” by an Orlando to Tampa route. If they want sun rail to serve I drive and universal great - that would be lovely.

If money were no object, I would agree it would be unfair to take a route that skips the convention center.

But do you really want tax payers in Volusia County to be on the hook for train service to the convention center? (Not necessarily saying they will be. But the funding structure of SunRail would need to be changed pretty significantly for Volusia County to not be a major contributor to the Sunshine Corridor.) The route that skips the convention center is very likely to cost half as much and require fewer agencies and governments to need to play ball to make happen.

If you want something to happen in government, the worst thing you could do is have more people at the table. More partners = more veto points. More veto points = greater chance of delay or failure.