Rumor Higher Speed Rail from MCO to Disney World

October82

Well-Known Member
Why? You base expenditures on ROI on current and projected market utilization.

I'll come back to your comment about ROI in a moment, but I've highlighted the important part. Projected markets are not the same as current markets. Consumers can't react or purchase services that don't exist.

The way you model whether people would use a new service is through demand modeling. This can get quite complicated in the case of transportation infrastructure because you need a full network analysis - and complete networks don't exist in much of the US, which is incidentally going to be a major problem for Brightline West - but the basic model for all transit infrastructure is called a gravity model. As a guide to the ridership potential for different modes, you can take the product of the population of destination pairs and divide by the square of the transit time. When you do these for a representative sample of possible US routes for different modes (airplanes, cars, trains), you find that a large number of routes in the US would exceed ridership of internationally comparable routes.

This is a very simple way of bootstrapping the lack of revealed preferences given the poor quality of existing services. We know from what people empirically choose to do - when given options they don't currently have - that they would choose rail if it were of sufficient quality. When you add in full network modeling, many additional more marginal routes become viable. Much more detailed modeling to determine economic viability is currently being supported through the FRA's Corridor ID program, which is the go to resource for a comprehensive listing of potentially high ridership routes.

To return to your point about ROI - this is really the wrong way to look at transportation infrastructure. None of it generates direct return on investment, including the interstate highway system or much of the existing airport infrastructure. The point of spending on transportation infrastructure is to enable the rest of the economy to function efficiently. Where trains make sense they are a generally lower cost (both in $$$ and time) way to move large numbers of people compared to highways. Again, this isn't a competition - highways are very good at moving most kinds of freight - but all transportation infrastructure requires upfront investment from governments even in cases where private operators ultimately use that infrastructure. We should consider the total direct and indirect ROI and not just, for example, the costs at the point of use.

If someone had a magic wand, that could immediately alter the makeup of US infrastructure to create a perfect railway system, for free, and take away the past centuries experience of people use cars and then planes for transportation, then sure maybe people would use them. But that's not happening.

European and Asian countries have only developed their intercity rail networks in the last several decades. Most people, when given a cheaper and faster way to get from point A to B aren't going to choose a more expensive and slower option. That's the whole reason why people don't use trains now - they're slow and expensive - and why we should invest to bring them up to international standards. If countries as dysfunctional as Spain or Italy can manage to do this at scale in a few decades, American industry should be able to do the same.

So in order to have any meaningful discussion about how trains COULD become a good service, you need a reason/logical path towards why anyone, government or private sector, is going to take the time, effort, and spend the money, to create this new good service, AND explain how this new service, even if better than the train system we have now, is better than current methods of transportation, and is SO much better that it will overtake the inertia of people using what they always have.

This isn't a hypothetical. It's a fact in virtually every other wealthy country. If you want to see how these services work, take a trip on Spain's AVE, France's TGV, Germany's Intercity Express, Japan's Shinkansen, or China's G-class. You'll pay the equivalent of about $20 for a service that beats domestic air travel or driving in any of these countries.

So other than showing 1 of the 3 items i listed is possible, or the 4th government intervention comes into play, where is the argument.
I responded to your comment and pointed out that all three are already met by existing standard services in other wealthy countries. In no country that I know of has the fourth point been born out. People choose high quality trains because they're good, not because they're forced to by policy.


I mean even if everyone was on board for the idea, the massive cost in land acquisition on a state or federal level to create any meaningful interstate train transportation system would be astronomical, and that's not considering the legal fights/battles that you would have, in order to create any type engineered track path that was straight enough to allow high speed train travel across any meaningful distance, and connect major population centers and destinations. Nor does it consider the land clearing and constrution costs of such a project.
Land acquisition costs are actually not a significant barrier for HSR projects in the US. The main issues are that we lack the engineering experience. Foreign rail operators, such as SNCF, have explored building region scale HSR in the US for around $50 billion, and expected around 50 million passengers/year and profitability within 15 years. Even if you think their cost estimates are too low (which I do!), for comparison, state and local highway expenditures are about $200 billion/year. We're not talking about an insurmountable change, we're talking about redirecting a portion of dollars that are presently going to highway expansion projects towards higher capacity, more efficient, and ultimately lower cost alternatives.
 
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Bob Harlem

Well-Known Member
The Cocoa/Port Canaveral station is a go. It's going to be on US-1 by 528 in Cocoa right where the railway merges onto the Florida East Coast Railway from the new track between the Orlando airport and US-1. It means a quick hop over Merritt Island to get to the cruise ships in Port Canaveral. If The Disney Springs (or across I-4) station opens it means a rail to get most of the way to the cruise port (or back...)


 
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DCBaker

Premium Member
Some details in a new article from the Orlando Business Journal on the Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission meeting held today.

If you'd like to review slides from the presentation like the one below, find them at this link.

Screenshot 2024-04-25 at 7.28.00 PM.png


Here's the article:

A Florida Department of Transportation-led study estimates the SunRail/Brightline Sunshine Corridor project could cost between $3.54 billion to $4.78 billion.

That's according to cost and ridership estimates presented by representatives with the transportation agency during the April 25 Central Florida Commuter Rail Commission Meeting. Ridership for the routes is estimated based on a 2026 opening, but that timeline has not been locked in.

The SunRail regional commuter rail service and the Brightline intercity rail to Miami have each spurred discussions for more rail connections.

SunRail currently averages roughly 1 million in ridership per year, and Brightline's service from its launch on Sept. 22, 2023, through March 31 estimates 676,636 customers have traveled between its Orlando International Airport station to Miami.

Here's more on the proposed connections — all costs are preliminary and might change:
  • Connection from existing SunRail route to Orlando International Airport: Estimated total ridership for SunRail would grow to 3.7 million in 2026 and to 5.2 million in 2040. The initial capital cost would be more than $400 million to connect to the airport, with annual costs of $41.5 million to operate.
  • From existing SunRail to Orlando International Airport to Orange Convention Center:Total ridership on SunRail for the entire connection would reach 4.4 million in 2026 and 6.2 million in 2040. The expansion from the airport to the convention center would have a capital cost of $1.75 billion to $2.4 billion, with $23.2 million in annual operating costs.
  • From existing SunRail to Orlando International Airport to Orange County Convention Center to South International Drive: Ridership on the entire route would be 5.4 million in 2026 and 7.9 million in 2040. The convention center to south I-Drive route would cost $1.22 billion to $1.74 billion and have annual operating costs of $10 million.
  • From existing SunRail to Orlando International Airport to Orange County Convention Center to South International Drive to Disney Springs: The study also looked at the potential to connect to Disney Springs from south International Drive. Ridership on that type of connection would be 6.4 million in 2026 and 9.4 million in 2040. There would be a capital cost between Disney Springs and south I-Drive of $173 million to $247 million. Annual operating costs would be $200,000.
In addition, a transfer station connecting the existing route to the expansion would add between $29 million and $39 million in capital costs.

FDOT District 5 Secretary John Tyler said during the meeting that the next steps would include going to the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) to see how much federal money the project could get and bring back FTA funding information to the SunRail board this summer.

Any such funds would be in addition to money from Miami-based Brightline and other private partners like Universal, which have pledged funds and land for a convention center station.

"We believe the [ridership] numbers are underestimated," Tyler said. "They are not capturing all of the folks who would enjoy having a premium transportation choice in their visit to Central Florida or for people who live here and want to use SunRail to enjoy the things Central Florida has to offer."

Tyler said the cost for the corridor is large, but other "transformational transportation" projects like Terminal C at Orlando International Airport and Brightline's Orlando expansion also cost a lot and provide value to the region.

Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer, who sits on the board, said the city of Orlando is 100% supportive of the route. "Hopefully we take away from this [that] the public wants it, the ridership is there and there is FTA money available."

Seminole County Commissioner Amy Lockhart and Volusia County Council Member Jeff Brower, also board members, both expressed excitement about the potential ridership, but wanted to make sure that they had more cost information to bring back to their respective county boards.

"We're going to have to figure out where the money will come from, and because there are a lot of needs, and that is going to be a challenge," Lockhart said.

Orange County Mayor and Board Member Jerry Demings said the success of the plan will be dependent on federal, state, local and private dollars to make it happen.

 
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DCBaker

Premium Member
Another article on the meeting today from the Orlando Sentinel:

Expanding SunRail to Orlando’s airport and the region’s tourism corridor would boost ridership at least sixfold in the first year of operation but come at an eye-popping cost of about $4 billion, state officials said Thursday in providing their first public projections for the commuter train’s next phase.

“There’s a lot of sharpening of the pencil to determine the true cost of this project,” said John Tyler, secretary of the Florida’s Department of Transportation’s Central Florida district, speaking to local mayors and city commissioners on SunRail’s board. Those costs would have to come from the taxpayers, with a combination of local, state and federal funding, as well as significant private contributions.

But Tyler was quick to argue the merits of what he called “transformational transportation projects” to Central Florida, citing the $2.3 billion overhaul of Interstate 4, construction of the $1.6 billon Wekiva Parkway, completion of the Orlando airport’s $3.2 billion Terminal C and Brightline’s start of service last year between Miami and Orlando.

Tyler said his department’s yearlong study, finding that linking SunRail to airport and tourism stops would increase ridership from the current 1 million annually to 6 million annually, is likely to be an underestimate.

“And when you look at the outer years, it is very significant,” Tyler said, pointing to an estimate of 9.4 million riders by 2040. “That’s an extremely positive result from this study.”

Response from the board was mixed and largely reserved. Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer had the most positive reaction. “I am more excited about possibilities for SunRail in the future than, quite honestly, I have ever been,” Dyer said.

Seminole County Commissioner Amy Lockhart took a lead in addressing money worries. “We are not a bottomless pit of money,” she said.

Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said his county’s transportation needs — including roads, rail and pedestrian projects — add up to a staggering cost that cannot be afforded without a dedicated source of funding, such as an increase in sales tax that he has backed previously and unsuccessfully.

Without such funding, Orange County’s support of expanding SunRail would be “difficult,” he said.

Sunrail’s currently existing north-south, 49-mile corridor with 16 stations through Volusia, Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties, running roughly parallel to Interstate 4, will be completed this summer with the opening of a final segment of 12 miles between DeBary and a new station in DeLand.

Local and state officials contend that SunRail needs the airport and tourism links to blossom into a thriving public transportation option with late night and weekend hours. Its current schedule offers neither.

The airport and tourism links, including track, stations and trains, are embodied in the proposed “Sunshine Corridor” project under consideration for the past two years.

The study unveiled by the state transportation department Thursday depicts several scenarios. Connecting SunRail to just the airport, for example, would cost an estimated $400 million and boost annual ridership to a projected 3.7 million.

The Sunshine Corridor is drawing support from Universal Studios Orlando, which has committed to providing land for a station and other incentives, and Brightline Trains, which wants to expand its current intercity service from Orlando’s airport to Tampa by using the corridor.

Walt Disney World has been absent from Sunshine Corridor discussions for the past two years, including during the recent dispute between Gov. Ron DeSantis and Disney over control of the attractions giant’s governing body, now called the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District.

But Brightline has long been interested in a station at Disney. The Sunshine Corridor study unveiled Thursday depicts riders and costs associated with a stop at Disney Springs.

“In the past, Disney has expressed to the department that they are very interested in expanding SunRail to Disney,” Tyler said. “We have continued to focus on getting a connection to that point. It makes sense from a transportation standpoint and we have no reason to believe we shouldn’t be pursuing that.”

The initial step is straightforward. Tyler said the Florida Department of Transportation will immediately engage with the Federal Transit Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation to explore pathways for securing grants.

Conventional thinking about funding the Sunshine Corridor, Tyler said, mirrors funding so far for SunRail: costs would be split with 25 percent for local sources, including private investors, 25 percent for state support and the rest for federal grants.

But exactly how to pursue that federal assistance remains unclear, Tyler said. There will be a key requirement that the Sunshine Corridor initiative provides a project development and environment study.

That could cost about $6 million, Tyler said, and the Florida Department of Transportation will seek to provide $2 million for the study.

None of the SunRail commission members responded directly to whether they would help pay for the project’s environmental study, or its development.

“Probably the biggest concern is where does the money come from,” said Volusia County Council Chairman Jeff Brower, a member of the SunRail Commission, of the Sunshine Corridor.

 

rio

Well-Known Member
I love to travel around, and I prefer to travel to cities with good public transit. Trains are preferred, but frequent high speed buses are also fine.

Part of the reason I love Disney is that I don’t need a car to get around. It’s the place that taught me such a thing is possible. However I cannot visit Universal, Seaworld, or other Orlando attractions and events easily. Changing to Universal/Seaworld/Downtown is expensive, and the time required to do so is only going up as the region continues to develop.

If the farthest of the lines can somehow get funded that would be a dream come true, and make traveling to Florida more attractive for myself and international visitors. Visiting Miami AND Orlando over the span of 2 weeks would be like visiting multiple cities in the NEC, or overseas in Europe and Asia.
 

Twirlnhurl

Well-Known Member
Still reading the report, but this line in the Sentinel jumped out at me:

"Connecting SunRail to just the airport, for example, would cost an estimated $400 million and boost annual ridership to a projected 3.7 million."

How do they get to $400 million for that!?

They don't need to build any tracks, and the tracks they need to use are owned by OUC, a city-owned utility!

Are an extra couple trainsets, signaling upgrades, MCO station finishes, and signage really that expensive?! Prices have gone up a lot over the past few years, but I feel like this should be like $80 million worth of stuff!
 

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
I thought MCO to Disney was completely taken off the table a few years ago. So, It's back to being an option again?
The only thing taken off the table was a station “on Disney property” but that station was barely going to be on property over by Disney Springs. They can still have a station in virtually the same place - just not technically on property.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Still reading the report, but this line in the Sentinel jumped out at me:

"Connecting SunRail to just the airport, for example, would cost an estimated $400 million and boost annual ridership to a projected 3.7 million."

How do they get to $400 million for that!?

They don't need to build any tracks, and the tracks they need to use are owned by OUC, a city-owned utility!

Are an extra couple trainsets, signaling upgrades, MCO station finishes, and signage really that expensive?! Prices have gone up a lot over the past few years, but I feel like this should be like $80 million worth of stuff!
Mayor Jerry will stick it to the tourists and locals ( ie increasing taxes of living and vacation spending ) to help fund.
 
New interesting development: https://www.bizjournals.com/orlando/news/2024/04/26/disney-springs-sunrail-station.html


Walt Disney World has signaled they are open to having an on-property SunRail station.

The company in an unsigned statement to Orlando Business Journal said they would be open to discuss a potential station at Disney Springs. The shared Sunshine Corridor between Miami-based Brightline and the Central Florida commuter rail system would include stops at Orlando International Airport, Orange County Convention Center and South International Drive.


“We have long been open to discussions around the proposed SunRail expansion to Disney Springs and have been engaged with state and community leaders on the topic," Disney wrote in a statement. "This is not to be confused with the agreement we previously had for a Brightline station that Brightline decided not to pursue.”



Brightline had proposed a Disney Springs station in 2019, but that plan ended in 2022 after the proposed route for Brightline changed from along State Road 417 to go closer to International Drive.

Meanwhile, the Florida Department of Transportation on April 25 presented cost and ridership estimates on the corridor, expected to cost up to $4.78 billion. The presentation included the potential for a Disney Springs station, which could cost $173 million to $247 million to build.

The move would come as the corridor has already drawn other partners tied to stations. Universal Orlando Resort has already pledged land for the convention center station and through a taxing district will provide funding for the infrastructure.

Orange County Mayor and SunRail Board Member Jerry Demings said during the April 25 that the success of the corridor plan will be dependent on federal, state, local and private dollars to make it happen.
 

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