News Guest dies, found unresponsive after riding Stardust Racers

[SplashJacket]

And the real estate Stardust Racers sits on could easily be repurposed - as an expansion to Wizarding World, Berk, or even a brand-new land. That flexibility makes a demo/rebuild option even more plausible.

It’s not accessible as a Potter plot and Berk is inaccessible except for the station area, which they would never use for Berk.

I’m not saying this will happen, just that it’s a real possibility given the circumstances. Normally you’d expect a fix and reopen, but this is a brand-new ride in a brand-new park, a fatality, and a ride name already tied to headlines.

It’s not a real possibility. If it’s one in 10,000, that’s not a real possibility.

 

[mkt]

It’s not accessible as a Potter plot and Berk is inaccessible except for the station area, which they would never use for Berk.

It’s not a real possibility. If it’s one in 10,000, that’s not a real possibility.

Fair, the footprint may not line up perfectly with Potter or Berk. But that’s not really the point.

I’m not saying demo/rebuild is likely, just that it’s a real possibility when you factor in the optics. This is a brand-new park, a fatality, and a ride name already tied to headlines. Even if it’s a one-in-10,000 scenario, Universal still has to weigh whether reopening is worth the PR baggage.

And given that the U.S. averages about four coaster deaths a year out of tens of millions of riders, one-in-10,000 odds isn’t out of line. The cheapest course of action in the long run might be to demo it, build something new, and market it as the “new attraction.”

 

[SplashJacket]

And given that the U.S. averages about four coaster deaths a year out of tens of millions of riders, one-in-10,000 odds isn’t out of line. The cheapest course of action in the long run might be to demo it, build something new, and market it as the “new attraction.”

It’s surprising, but we also have to realize

1) Stardust might be the highest capacity coaster in the world

2) Universal’s Guest demographics are wildly different from coaster amusement parks

3) Epic Universe is a capacity constrained park, Stardust may be the highest capacity attraction at the park. Epic Universe needs more capacity yesterday, not multiple years down the road. Stardust may be more valuable than Ministry to EU at this moment in time due to its capacity. Cost /= value. You’re hugely underestimating the value of stardust.

 

[mkt]

It’s surprising, but we also have to realize

1) Stardust might be the highest capacity coaster in the world

2) Universal’s Guest demographics are wildly different from coaster amusement parks

3) Epic Universe is a capacity constrained park, Stardust may be the highest capacity attraction at the park. Epic Universe needs more capacity yesterday, not multiple years down the road. Stardust may be more valuable than Ministry to EU at this moment in time due to its capacity. Cost /= value. You’re hugely underestimating the value of stardust.

I realize all three of those things. I've realized all three of those since before the park opened to the public.

 

[SplashJacket]

And to preface, any death on a coaster is too many, but it’s too premature to call for stardust to be torn down on what’s very likely a freak incident stemming from a pre-existing condition.

But your annual chance of dying in a car accident is about 1/8000.

Stardust has been open for ~120 days, so call it 1/3 of a year.

So your chance of saying in a car accident within 120 days is 1/24000.

Stardust probably carries about 24,000 Guests per day.

So they’ve had a chance of roughly 1/2,880,000 die adjacent to ridership.

We would expect ~120 people who’ve ridden Stardust in the last 120 days to die in a car accident within 120 days of their stardust ride. This is a high estimate that both ignores rerides, but still.

Again that’s too high, there shouldn’t be any.

It took steel vengeance 4 years to hit 1,000,000 riders. Stardust probably hit that in less than 2 months.

Again, this is likely a very freak occurrence, but the chance something like this happens is higher at Universal (through no fault of their own) because the demographics of Universal guests and a ridership that makes other flagship coasters look like flat rides.

 

[danlb_2000]

There are train designs you can order new that would definitely be a problem, like Big Thunder Mountain Railroad. We can also look at the incidents reports and see that someone completely passing out isn’t a common occurrence.

But these seats are padded clamshells. The lap bar support arms end up down and to the side. The lab bar restricts your core a bit. And unless you’re already in a bad position the forces should generally push you back towards the seat. It seems like you’d have to be a fairly tall, lanky and flexible person to be able to hit something unpadded. But, even padded surfaces can cause harm.

The parks are only required to report injuries that require at least a 24 hour hospital stay.

 

[Disstevefan1]

So they’ve had a chance of roughly 1/2,880,000 die adjacent to ridership.

Again that’s too high, there shouldn’t be any.

Nope. Nothing in life is guaranteed. I would take those odds any day.

Odds of dying walking in the street 1 in 471 ! See here

 

[lentesta]

But how many thousands and thousands of folks have already rode it with no issues?

I would really want to know.

Calling Dr. @lentesta

It’s been 125 days since official opening.

Let’s say the park is open for 11 hours per day.

And let’s say the ride demand and capacity works out to 1,200 riders per hour.

That’s 1,650,000 riders. I feel like that’s the low end - if you said 2 million I wouldn’t argue.

The track length is just about a mile. So we have 1.65 million miles traveled.

Automobiles average 1 death for each 72.5 million miles driven (obviously ignoring preexisting conditions, the nature of the experience, etc). So we’re not at those numbers.

Bicycles average around 1 death in around 13 million miles traveled, give or take. So we’re within an order of magnitude there, just as a back of napkin estimate.

A micromort is a one-in-a-million chance of death, and that page lists the fatality rates for common leisure activities like scuba diving to paragliding.

1:1.65 million is pretty close to skiing. Again, without considering preexisting conditions, etc.

Did we get a final cause on this incident? I’ve not kept up in the last few days.

 

[flynnibus]

Did we get a final cause on this incident?

Short answer - no. Nothing new since day 2 except Uni and the state people say the ride was operating at intended.

 

[mkt]

It’s been 125 days since official opening.

Let’s say the park is open for 11 hours per day.

And let’s say the ride demand and capacity works out to 1,200 riders per hour.

That’s 1,650,000 riders. I feel like that’s the low end - if you said 2 million I wouldn’t argue.

The track length is just about a mile. So we have 1.65 million miles traveled.

Automobiles average 1 death for each 72.5 million miles driven (obviously ignoring preexisting conditions, the nature of the experience, etc). So we’re not at those numbers.

Bicycles average around 1 death in around 13 million miles traveled, give or take. So we’re within an order of magnitude there, just as a back of napkin estimate.

A micromort is a one-in-a-million chance of death, and that page lists the fatality rates for common leisure activities like scuba diving to paragliding.

1:1.65 million is pretty close to skiing. Again, without considering preexisting conditions, etc.

Did we get a final cause on this incident? I’ve not kept up in the last few days.

I was a bit more conservative in my count - factoring in downtime for weather and tech, shorter 8-hour days at Epic (which there have been), and the reality of relatively new team members still getting up to speed.

Effect has been determined: death.
Cause… still to be determined.

 

[Sorcerer Mickey]

Fair, the footprint may not line up perfectly with Potter or Berk. But that’s not really the point.

I’m not saying demo/rebuild is likely, just that it’s a real possibility when you factor in the optics. This is a brand-new park, a fatality, and a ride name already tied to headlines. Even if it’s a one-in-10,000 scenario, Universal still has to weigh whether reopening is worth the PR baggage.

And given that the U.S. averages about four coaster deaths a year out of tens of millions of riders, one-in-10,000 odds isn’t out of line. The cheapest course of action in the long run might be to demo it, build something new, and market it as the “new attraction.”

Do you remember how many people have died on Mission: Space? And it’s still with us today.

 

[mkt]

Do you remember how many people have died on Mission: Space? And it’s still with us today.

Two, both due to pre-existing conditions - and importantly, that was in the era before 24/7 connectivity and mass social media amplifying every headline.

 

[BrianLo]

There have been reports that he had a spinal cord injury.

I just want to get into the weeds a bit that the warning is for unstable back conditions. A spinal cord injury presumably more than 6-8 weeks out is stable and would be precluded based on the intent of the warning.

It's a bit akin to saying you should never have broken a bone in your life. The underlying nerve damage is permanent, but the spinal column itself should have been healed and surgically cleared for activity return.

Now it's very, very possible there was something unstable that the guest had not been aware of. Though again that would be a slightly odd mechanism to die so suddenly from. I obviously don't know the specificity of his condition, but from my perspective I still really feel the guest met ridership criteria.

 

[Comped]

As a disabled person myself, who cannot and never has gone on any coasters for medical reasons (if any of you remember Tom's Guardians accident... something similar could very easily happen to me), the continued blame on the victim because of his disability that continues to be spread throughout the internet when discussing this topic makes me feel absolutely disgusted...

We don't know if his medical condition caused him bar what was said by the ME, it's really not helpful or appropriate to continue to frame his death as if it was solely or majority responsible, as if he knew he couldn't ride it and chose to do so anyway. Not helpful to say the least, And it leaves a horrendous taste in my mouth while reading it.

 

[Sorcerer Mickey]

Two, both due to pre-existing conditions - and importantly, that was in the era before 24/7 connectivity and mass social media amplifying every headline.

That goes both ways. This story will be buried by three national emergencies by Friday.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

We would expect ~120 people who’ve ridden Stardust in the last 120 days to die in a car accident within 120 days of their stardust ride. This is a high estimate that both ignores rerides, but still.

This is not how probability works.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Nope. Nothing in life is guaranteed. I would take those odds any day.

Odds of dying walking in the street 1 in 471 ! See here

I think you're comparing different things: those odds don't mean one in every 471 people walking down the street will be killed.

If 1 in every 2-3million people who rode this coaster died, that probably would be a problem as they'd have several deaths a year. One person dying after 2million people have ridden the coaster, though, doesn't necessarily suggest anyone will die on it ever again.

 

[flynnibus]

I just want to get into the weeds a bit that the warning is for unstable back conditions. A spinal cord injury presumably more than 6-8 weeks out is stable and would be precluded based on the intent of the warning.

It's a bit akin to saying you should never have broken a bone in your life. The underlying nerve damage is permanent, but the spinal column itself should have been healed and surgically cleared for activity return.

Not really following your line of thinking. The guy was in a wheelchair for life due to the prior injury. 'stable' or not, the guy had reduced function because of it.

I've had multiple back surguries, but they were all years ago. I'm 'stable' in that I'm not in recovery, but I still can't take compressive forces the same and the whipping action of rides causes me to flop around more where I really have to brace myself due to weakness in my core. Even tame coasters like DL space mountain are basically at the limit of what I can tolerate before taking serious downtime because of it.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

If 1 in every 2-3million people who rode this coaster died, that probably would be a problem as they'd have several deaths a year. One person dying after 2million people have ridden the coaster, though, doesn't necessarily suggest anyone will die on it ever again.

This is a much better explanation of how probability works than the poster who thinks that 120 of the people who have ridden Stardust since May have now died in a car accident…

 

[BrianLo]

Not really following your line of thinking. The guy was in a wheelchair for life due to the prior injury. 'stable' or not, the guy had reduced function because of it.

He did. There's two areas of exclusion in the warning.

One is functional: I cannot guess from a picture his truncal tone and function and that may be an area he did not meet the letter of the warning. His neck control and upper extremity strength seem preserved as he is shown in a self-propelled wheelchair.

The second is structural: a back or neck problem that can be worsened by the roller coaster. I think there is a misunderstanding that people think his spinal cord injury is an ongoing structural injury that can be re-exacerbated. Under normal circumstances it is healed and cannot. That is what I was providing clarity on. You should be allowed to do all activities your function allows following the acute post injury period from your neurosurgeon, including roller coasters.

Though once you have such an injury there are other consequences that may develop, known and unknown.

I've had multiple back surguries, but they were all years ago. I'm 'stable' in that I'm not in recovery, but I still can't take compressive forces the same and the whipping action of rides causes me to flop around more where I really have to brace myself due to weakness in my core. Even tame coasters like DL space mountain are basically at the limit of what I can tolerate before taking serious downtime because of it.

Indeed this truncal tone may be the area of exclusion. By all means, the simplest explanation remains that something about this individuals medical condition lead to the death. He didn't win the lottery twice.

I just strongly am advocating that there is not yet clear sufficient evidence of impropriety, on anyone's behalf. I think there was an unfortunate consequence that was intrinsic but unknown to the guest against a very unfortunate perfect accidental storm.