Free Dining for the Fall tied to crowd predictions?

[bUU]

Very limited offerings and inventory.

Yes. The load levels and forecasts of expected attendance resulted in this specific level of discounting. If projections change, we can expect to see more; if they stay the same then that'll be it.

 

[bUU]

They’ve been trying to shake the free dining for years. I think it really came out strong after 911 and they’ve been watering it down and weakening the offer regularly. I think they saw this as a good time to try eliminating the fall promotion.

There's a real cost to eliminating something like free dining. It is far less risky to eliminate it in effect than to eliminate it actuality.

 

[DisneyOutsider]

I knew what you wrote but also knew how you wrote it so as to imply something that is simply not factual. If you're going to engage in rhetorical tactics, be prepared to be called out on them. Putting the words "to suggest that" into a sentence doesn't give you a free pass to add whatever you want after that with impunity.

Let's be clear: With this reply you're clearly saying that you have no information about what Disney was thinking with regard to discounting.

You are.

1. Attitude and comments by upper management telling us their expectation of popularity

2. Next to nada incentinve given in DL for SW:GE rollout including large scale AP blockout

3. Severely delayed rollout (after seeing DL have a VERY slow time for their big debut, a situation which several insiders here have indicated that management is very concerned about) of any discounts at all for the Fall at WDW, and even these were bastardized

All of these suggest that they were at the very least waiting and hoping to not cut discounts at WDW for the opening of SW:GE. And frankly, there are several more I could have called out.

You've yet to address a single one of these, and claimed that the conclusion was unlikely to be true despite three opportunities I've given you to do so.

You're on ignore, go troll someone else.

 

[LSLS]

No. It is called a "model" because while its structure and artifacts are determined in advance the end result responds to environmental variables and analysis done continuously within the parameters of the model. So, in terms of discounts, while discounting is part of the plan, the model defines how to determine how many discounts and how much of a discount to offer.

So wouldnt it be logical to believe the model includes projections based on an assumed large increase in bookings for the new offering, and that the actual sales are falling behind what they had input into their model?

 

[TOCPE82]

I saw the offer by coincidence this morning, it must've been minutes after it had been released and availability in late September, late November, and the second week of December was abismal to say the least. I wasn't looking to book, just looking out of curiosity. The cheapest room I could pull up with FD was a club level suite in Coronado tower. So maybe it's just an play to fill premium rooms/resorts.

The room discount has much better availability, although the supposedly discounted rate at the values in September was equal to rack rate. Maybe it was a glitch, maybe it wasn't.

I called for 5 hours on they day they released. Had to talk to a supervisor, and was only able to get an AP rate for 3 of my 4 nights, Sept 28th to Oct 2nd.

They couldn't have released very many free dining offers.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

I called for 5 hours on they day they released. Had to talk to a supervisor, and was only able to get an AP rate for 3 of my 4 nights, Sept 28th to Oct 2nd.

They couldn't have released very many free dining offers.

Obviously YMMV, but I'm an agent and I had 5 clients' reservations edited and confirmed (all online!) early that morning *before* the email went out. Once the email was out, the system was a mess.

Of those 5 clients traveling during the right dates, 4 got free dining and the 5th got the room discount.

 

[mmssbrg2]

I knew what you wrote but also knew how you wrote it so as to imply something that is simply not factual. If you're going to engage in rhetorical tactics, be prepared to be called out on them. Putting the words "to suggest that" into a sentence doesn't give you a free pass to add whatever you want after that with impunity.

Let's be clear: With this reply you're clearly saying that you have no information about what Disney was thinking with regard to discounting.

You are.

This argument over the use of one word (fact) is getting tired. The evidence laid out strongly points to Disney’s desire to not have to use discounts after SW:GE opens. Why else would the summer discount window end the day before the land’s opening? While it may be impossible to know exactly what Disney had planned for fall resort pricing, a reasonable person can assume, based on the facts, that the goal was to not offer discounts during this time frame...and that soft bookings led to a change in that strategy late in the game.

Your argument shows more of a need to be right on your part than an invalidation of the point trying to be made.

 

[larryz]

I called for 5 hours on they day they released. Had to talk to a supervisor, and was only able to get an AP rate for 3 of my 4 nights, Sept 28th to Oct 2nd.

They couldn't have released very many free dining offers.

Still available at the Animal Kingdom Lodge, Contemporary, Grand Floridian, and a couple of the Moderates for 9-14 September.

 

[Capsin4]

So wouldnt it be logical to believe the model includes projections based on an assumed large increase in bookings for the new offering, and that the actual sales are falling behind what they had input into their model?

Not necessarily. It may just mean their occupancy rate isn’t we’re they want it to be, however far off it is. A breakdown of the number and types of rooms it applies to would show how bad their projections are and if this is just a tweak.

This is the first time they’ve offered free dining three times in a year. Maybe the earlier offers were to shift stays and they were trying to wait out the fall.

I’m perplexed as to why they offer it for arrivals that can carry stays through Christmas week.

 

[LSLS]

Not necessarily. It may just mean their occupancy rate isn’t we’re they want it to be, however far off it is. A breakdown of the number and types of rooms it applies to would show how bad their projections are and if this is just a tweak.

This is the first time they’ve offered free dining three times in a year. Maybe the earlier offers were to shift stays and they were trying to wait out the fall.

I’m perplexed as to why they offer it for arrivals that can carry stays through Christmas week.

Tweak or large change would both still imply they are most likely behind where they anticipated they would be. Like you, I'm very interested in the dates too. That close to Christmas is interesting. Also interesting they are in place just 3 days after ROTR opens.

 

[bUU]

1. Attitude and comments by upper management telling us their expectation of popularity

The manner one chooses to perceive attitude and comments by upper management.

2. Next to nada incentinve given in DL for SW:GE rollout including large scale AP blockout

One's personal perception of incentive...

3. Severely delayed rollout

The handling of operational complexities are irrelevant to the matter we're discussing.

All of these suggest that ...

One's personal guess about what these things mean.

 

[bUU]

So wouldnt it be logical to believe the model includes projections based on an assumed large increase in bookings for the new offering, and that the actual sales are falling behind what they had input into their model?

It is called a "model" because while its structure and artifacts are determined in advance the end result responds to environmental variables and analysis done continuously within the parameters of the model.

 

[bUU]

This argument over the use of one word (fact) is getting tired.

It is very easy to avoid expressing a personal preference as if it was proof of something other than that one holds that preference.

The evidence laid out strongly points to Disney’s desire to not have to use discounts after SW:GE opens.

So you claim, but again that claim is coming only from people who have other posts elsewhere critical of Disney management.

Imagine that.

Why else would the summer discount window end the day before the land’s opening?

It is called a "model" because while its structure and artifacts are determined in advance the end result responds to environmental variables and analysis done continuously within the parameters of the model.

While it may be impossible to know exactly what Disney had planned...

That's where that statement can be safely ended.

 

[bUU]

Your argument shows more of a need to be right on your part than an invalidation of the point trying to be made.

Nonsense. I'm not making any statements about what Disney is doing. I'm pointing out the folly of doing so, placing one's own personal opinions over the professional judgement of experts with loads of success behind them. The only ones trying to claim that they are right about what Disney is doing in this thread are those who are criticizing Disney's decisions.

It is really simple. You don't like something, so say you don't like it. You can be sure that there can be no challenge to that because you are an undisputed authority about what you do and do not like.

 

[rowrbazzle]

They’ve been trying to shake the free dining for years. I think it really came out strong after 911 and they’ve been watering it down and weakening the offer regularly. I think they saw this as a good time to try eliminating the fall promotion.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence it came out a short time after RotR opening date was announced. I’d guess that announcement didn’t give them the bump for December.

People have better things to do over the summer than wait for Disney to drop faux discounts on their obscene prices.

I'm surprised to hear that. From what I've read the free dining offer is commonly a worse deal for guests over room discounts, but people still wait for it. (A bunch of the big Disney fans I know are all about free dining and I see folks online anticipating it.) I guess Disney would want to have no discounts of any kind, but that seems unlikely. What is the thought behind Disney wanting to get rid of free dining?

 

[Capsin4]

Tweak or large change would both still imply they are most likely behind where they anticipated they would be. Like you, I'm very interested in the dates too. That close to Christmas is interesting. Also interesting they are in place just 3 days after ROTR opens.

It’s weird.

Yes, they’re behind. I was commenting more on the thought they were looking for a big response to the offer. Not clear how big they’re looking for.

I'm surprised to hear that. From what I've read the free dining offer is commonly a worse deal for guests over room discounts, but people still wait for it. (A bunch of the big Disney fans I know are all about free dining and I see folks online anticipating it.) I guess Disney would want to have no discounts of any kind, but that seems unlikely. What is the thought behind Disney wanting to get rid of free dining?

It depends on party size and room cost. Larger parties in cheaper rooms favor the free dining. We would have 4 people at pop and save close to $1k over the room discount. This was 2011-2015 and 2017 and rooms were maybe $150 at most and you might get 10-15% off rack.

I’d guess room discounts are much easier and probably cheaper for them overall. It’s certainly been more restricted over the years.

 

[monothingie]

Nonsense. I'm not making any statements about what Disney is doing. I'm pointing out the folly of doing so, placing one's own personal opinions over the professional judgement of experts with loads of success behind them. The only ones trying to claim that they are right about what Disney is doing in this thread are those who are criticizing Disney's decisions.

It is really simple. You don't like something, so say you don't like it. You can be sure that there can be no challenge to that because you are an undisputed authority about what you do and do not like.

Sooooo what is happening is the expected result that all these professionals with loads of success behind them expected to happen?

Everything that has occurred since opening was planned entirely ahead and has not been done as some sort of reactionary response to an end result that was completely unexpected?

Your mistake in your reasoning is that you assume the professionals with loads of success are competent and not just lackeys in the corporate echo chamber.

Oh it’s going to be fun when the scapegoating starts getting out.

 

[larryz]

Oh it’s going to be fun when the scapegoating bloodletting starts getting out.

FTFY

 

[monothingie]

FTFY

I would have also accepted bludgeonings as well.

 

[DryerLintFan]

The parks and resorts segment does not think that far ahead. They look at the current and next quarter, and they are deeply concerned at summer and fall numbers. I agree that next year will likely be more crowded (if RotR is actually good and they can open MMRR and Rat at some point).

WWoHP could have opened with just Ollivander's and there would have been a line out the park gate. Disney seems to have over-estimated the current level of Star Wars obsession and I believe it was a misfire to focus on the sequel trilogy and to largely build locations that are not iconic in the films. When you build a land based upon a beloved series, people show up to visit places that were previously only imagined on screen. It is as if they built WWoHP but had us visit the Beauxbatons Academy of Magic. The switch from Hogwarts to Beauxbatons would move the avid fan from "OMG! They built it and it looks so real and we will book it yesterday and we will spend $4000 and we will get robes and wands and owls and butterbeer!" to "oh, cool. I'd like to see that some day. I bet it's neat."

This is a really great point. I just wanted to quote it for emphasis. If WWoHP was just Diagon Alley shops I'd still go. If it was just Hogsmeade, I'm still there. Hogwarts and no rides, I'm still in. But you make it some location that's not relevant to the places I love from the books, and I'm not really interested anymore.

I don't really get into Star Wars so I didn't really understand the angst before about this being a different location. I get it now. So thank you!