So, I used this calculator and was thinking I'd save a bit with the Dining Plan. Not so. The Deluxe Plan is $3,080.
Date Meal Type Location Cost
7/7/2017 Breakfast TS Kona Café $93.16
7/7/2017 Lunch TS San Angel Inn Restaurante $160.14
7/7/2017 Dinner TS Via Napoli Ristorante e Pizzeria $189.19
7/8/2017 Lunch TS Plaza Restaurant $133.76
7/8/2017 Dinner TS Ohana $206.04
7/9/2017 Breakfast TS Tusker House Restaurant $148.62
7/9/2017 Lunch TS Rainforest Cafe $170.94
7/9/2017 Dinner TS T-REX $156.14
7/10/2017 Lunch QS Pinocchio Village Haus $73.67
7/10/2017 Dinner TS Liberty Tree Tavern $169.67
7/11/2017 Breakfast TS Grand Floridian Café $100.09
7/11/2017 Lunch TS Via Napoli Ristorante e Pizzeria $189.19
7/11/2017 Dinner TS Ohana $206.04
7/12/2017 Breakfast TS Kona Café $93.16
7/12/2017 Lunch TS 50's Prime Time Café $153.68
7/12/2017 Dinner TS Sci-Fi Dine-In Theater Restaurant $149.52
7/13/2017 Lunch QS Columbia Harbour House $69.54
7/13/2017 Dinner TS Tony's Town Square Restaurant $163.39
7/14/2017 Breakfast TS Kona Café $93.16
This is based on 3 adults, 2 children. Ohana for example, at $206, will probably be closer to $250. However, Via Napoli will come nowhere NEAR $189. We usually spend $60, tops. Rainforest Cafe will not be $171. More like $100. 50's Prime Time won't be $153. Maybe $80. Same with Sci Fi. It also estimated $67 for each QS breakfast. No way. We'll go to Gaston's at Magic Kingdom and spend maybe $25. The other counter service meals won't be $70. Closer to $40. Obviously, the calculator is comparing apples to apples and giving you everything you would get on the Dining Plan, including multiple appetizers and desserts for everyone. We won't eat that much. That's where the Dining Plan is a bit off. According to this calculator, out of pocket we would spend $2,891. However, it would actually be closer to around $2,100. Of course, if we changed some of these CS meals and ate some more character meals and more table meals, there would be more of a savings. However, we'd also have to figure in tips as well.
Bottom line is, it doesn't make sense for us as we don't like to eat 3 table service meals every day. There might be a day or 2 where we do that, but there will be other days where we'll eat just 1. We like Gaston's, we like Pinnochio's, we like Columbia House. It just doesn't make sense for us.
Setting aside for a second the possibility that the estimated prices are inflated....
Unless prices went up again recently, Deluxe Dining Plan for an adult is $106.68. and a child is $38.75. That includes tax. You're paying for every night you stay, not every day you're there. So for each night you're there, it's $397.54. If you're staying 7/7 through 7/14 that's 7 nights total, making the grand total of the Deluxe Dining Plan $2782.78, not $3080. So you're off by nearly 300 bucks.
Now granted, $2783 is still FAR more than your estimate of around $2100 for what you'd normally pay to eat at those particular restaurants (though your estimates include no snacks, you'll get 2 snacks per person per night, so that's at least $80 in the difference twixt your personal estimate and the cost of the dining plan, and it could be even more depending on the kinds of snacks you picked.
Past few times we went we opted for the Deluxe Dining Plan. We justified it for these reasons
1: Most of those trips were in August. It was hotter than a monkey's butt. That's a monkey with flu, mind you, so even hotter than a normal monkey's butt. Being able to beat the heat with leisurely meals made sense to us.
2: We opted for a few Signature meals. We also did a lot of character meals, which afforded us the ability to avoid lines to meet most characters because our kids got their autographs and pictures while eating.
3: The price for kids' deluxe plan is SOOOOO much less than the adults. Even when the grownups seemed to be a few bucks shy of "breaking even" on any given day, the kids more than made up for it, especially when it came to the character meals or other buffets that were pay one price. Some days, even one of those meals could be more than the price of a Deluxe Plan for a child for the entire day.
4: Snacks as souvenirs! We would use a snack credit here and there for a shared popcorn during a parade, shared pretzels, cupcakes that looked too good. We rarely used more than 4 a day. So at the end of the trip, we used our credits for bags of Chip and Dale snacks or Goofy Candy Co. bagged items, stuff that would keep, so we could have a taste of Disney at home even a few weeks after returning.
Next time we all go, we probably won't do it as one of my kids will be too old to be on the kids' meal plan, and perhaps they'll be old enough that we won't need SOOO many character meals. But we had great times with the times we were on it. Just had to be thoughtful about how we used it.