FastPass+ Most Certainly Not Coming Back As It Was

[GhostHost1000]

At some point Wall Street has to be ok with long term sustainable growth.

Currently everything is about how much more can you make right now.

This isn’t a sustainable business model for any corporation and it’s why just about everything from Disney to appliances to airlines is more and more $$$ for less and less.

I know how Disney can make more money.
Sell ESPN that is sucking them dry

 

[hopemax]

The system is not that complicated if you just don't try to connect lines back to prior models.

The system is pretty straight forward

1) You have a line...
2) When that line gets too long, Disney will close the line and ask people to come back later via the form of a standby pass. (this is the old 'deferred demand' portion of Fastpass). When people return, it's like standing in standby
3) Independently, Disney will be selling one-time use passes to skip the standby line. Pricing could be dynamic.

When they push that message alone - I think people would be able to digest it.

People can understand 'ride is closed, come back later'... It's basically that.. 'line is closed, you can request to come back later with a standby pass'

People will boil everything down to the question "what do I have to do to ride X?"

A. Pay for Fastpass
B. Is standby pass in operation?
......B1. No, you wait in standby
......B2. Yes, you have to get a standby pass
.....................What if standby passes are sold out or the return time is bad for me
.................................B2.1 Pay for Fastpass
.................................B2.2 Keep your face buried in your phone waiting for more standby passes to drop
.................................B2.3 Don't ride

 

[PlaneCrazy1978]

 

[Parker in NYC]

So assuming WDW does adopt a version of Disney Premier Access... much will turn on implementation.

But we can start to draw some reasonable inferences and conclusions on its likely effects, likely winners and losers.
So some random likely points and commentary:

- No more need to plan 60/30 days in advance: This is a big pro, IMO. You'll be able to ride every E-ticket attraction without the need to book a FP 60+ days in advance. Depending on the park pass system, you may be able to truly make your plans spontaneously.
- Physical standby lines will be much shorter. I assume the "Standby Pass" limits the length of the physical queue. The physical queue still exists, but "standby pass" gets activated when the line exceeds 30 minutes, or an hour, or whatever. So standing in 90-120 minute lines may be a thing of the past.
- Without tons of pre-planning, regardless of whether you are on-site or off-site, regardless of whether deluxe or value, everyone will have the option to skip the line on the major E-ticket rides. It will simply be a question of whether it is worth the $$$. The pricing is not outrageous at $10 to $20 per ride, or so. Yes, that would become super expensive if you wanted to purchase 10 per day for a party of 4. But every guest can decide whether it's worth the price, whether to buy none, 1, or however many.
-Morning arriving guests should be able to guarantee themselves access to a minimum of 1 E-ticket attraction per day, for "free" and without a long line. And it will be any attraction they want. As things stand now, it's very possible that even booking at 60-62 days, you can't get a free FOP fastpass, for example. Under the new system, any guest arriving around rope drop should be able to get a "standby pass." While not the same as a FP, it will guarantee you the chance to ride FOP with a reasonable line -- 30 or 60 minutes, or however they set it, instead of 2+ hours. And if that isn't good enough, you'd have the option of buying DPA.
- There will be increased demand for popular attractions, because you no longer have the disincentive of a long line. If you arrived at DHS at 9:30 am and see a 2-hour line at Slinky Dog, many people will decide it's just not worth the line and will skip it. But if the physical line is only 30 minutes -- More guests may be fine waiting in a 4-hour virtual line, if the physical line is only 30 minutes. This increased demand could lead to "Standby Pass" lines filling up pretty quickly..... meaning...
- The big negative, late arriving guests may find themselves blocked from "Standby Pass" at popular attractions. All the standby passes could disappear quickly. Like in the old days of paper FP -- Some rides would have paper FPs still available till late in the day. But for Toy Story Mania, all the paper FPs would be gone within 20 minutes of park opening.

So the big winners potentially under this system: Those arriving to the park early and those willing to pay extra for DPA
The losers: Those who arrived to the park later and relied upon pre-booked "free" FP to E-ticket attractions.

Guests who mostly/entirely rely on the "free" standby system will likely spend less time in physical lines (which was Disney's unrealized goal with FP+), but will lose Front-of-line privileges at any ride. Instead of 1-2 E-ticket rides per day with virtually 0 physical wait, it will be all attractions with under a 30-60 minute physical wait. It should strike a better overall balance of wait times, with the downside that guests may become entirely excluded from some attractions on some days. Currently, you can get your FP for Slinky Dog, and still decide it's worthwhile to wait in a 60+ minute line for Smuggler's Run, another 60+ minutes for Runaway Train, and another 60+ minutes for TOT. Under the DPA system, you might grab your Standby Pass for Slinky, but then get completely blocked from the other "tier 1" attractions.

How are we so sure people won't still have to plan things out 60/30 days in advance? It's really going to just be a free-for-all? It was one thing to run to grab a FP back in the olden times, but to pay an additional (and ungodly fee) and then have to run... that's a little ridiculous.

 

[ne4now]

When is it finally going to be too much for even the most diehard of the Pixie Dusters? I loved going to parks and years ago, I was pretty diehard too, but Disney with each passing year makes it harder to justify the experience. I am so tired of greed in our culture and the grabbing of cash with both hands in just about everything that Americans like to do and hold dear. It's just a matter of time before this is fully implemented in the states and before long will be an accepted part of the Disney park experience. Paid shills and trolls will be out on social media, web forums, etc, to knock down people like me, who express frustration and dismay at what is happening with the company and the parks. Where does this end and you can bet more is on the way and the fan community of the parks just keep going along with it.

Sure some will say just budget for it or the famous rude reply, "don't go then and there will be more room for me". It still doesn't change the fact that the experience of going to the Disney theme parks was a part of our culture growing up and that it was looked as a rite of passage for the working/middle class. I've saved for two plus years to make my family's wish of going to the 50th and to have a great experience and honestly, I'm still not not done paying, but where do you draw the line? The after hours boo party wanted $700 plus dollars for my family of 4, just for a few nighttime hours at MK and that's on top of a 5 day park ticket. Now soon we will have this to deal with this, I'm sorry, but no thanks.

I'm sorry to vent here, but I guess when you love something and see it being run into ground to appease the shareholders and the big money makers within the company, it sours the whole experience. Just my honest opinion and YMMV.

I'm in a similar boat. My wife is a fanatic and would go to WDW for every vacation. I would prefer other vacations because they are all a dramatically better value, but mostly prefer a happy wife. We have 2 grown sons but also a 5yo that (like me) is really a fan of marvel and star wars. Over the years I have found things to keep me interested in going on these trips but the thing WE all hate, is spending thousands and thousands of dollars, just to stand around waiting. For busses, trains, dinner reservations, attractions, customer service, all of it. We have had multiple days at the parks where we only went on our fast pass attractions or attractions that had short/no waits and those are always the best days. Also seems to be the most expensive days too. Because we are walking around trying snacks, drinking (if I can, I'm boozing), and having nice meals. Did we get on every ride? NOPE! But who cares , we will do it again another day.
Point is, I can easily see this going away and me winning more of the vacation battles and there will be less WDW trips. We will still go but I am sure those trips would be what I dread. Spending even more $ for a more hectic, cram-it-all-in, "we did it" vacation that leaves you needing an actual rest after your "vacation."

 

[flynnibus]

So at the point that the physical queue is full (say 60 minutes of people) the VQ kicks in and starts telling people to come back in 20 minutes. That allows the standby queue to grow beyond it's physical capacity... but virtually.

One aspect could be 'more capacity' yes... but for the customer, the big change is they don't get locked into being stuck in that line as long.

When they come back in 20 minutes, the standby queue has about 40 minutes worth of people in it, and their total wait time is the same as it would have been otherwise.

Sure, if you only look at the left most boundary case. But that's not where the volume is. It's more in the idea that you avoided committing 2hrs to the line.. and you return and maybe get a 1hr line instead. Benefit to the customer...

 

[MrPromey]

All this talk about what will or won't make things better.

The only thing that will universally improve the guest experience is increased attraction capacity.

Disney can try any way they want to Tetris people into their parks with fancy programs paid or not but the only true way to fix this problem is to add more to do - a lot more.

Had they been doing that all along, at a small scale on a steady pace, their fan base wouldn't be turning on itself over the argument of what is or isn't broken and how it could be fixed/changed/ehnanced when it comes to planning a trip.

At this point, the only real solution is an expensive one because we're talking about fixing a big decade+ mistake.

Each park needs way more than they're adding and Disney simply doesn't want to foot the bill for what's needed.

Meanwhile down the road, Universal with a fraction of the attendance, continues to add attractions and is working on a third park...

 

[larryz]

And this is how many of these companies go out of business.

Disney's not going to go out of business. But I still think they may be getting out of the theme park business...

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

First, you've never been guaranteed.

Second, all this is is saying you line up virtually and come back to the standby line when it's your turn. It's just you spend the bulk of the time being able to do something else. I suspect many will like that fact. It's to prevent 2 hour lines.

Funny- not ha ha funny - but funny thing last spring break, Hagrid's had BOTH a virtual queue AND a two hour wait. As in, riders had to obtain a pass to enter the queue, but the queue was still over two hours long.

 

[havoc315]

Or in other words, we’ll make the wait time even longer as to make the free option unpalatable in order to push people into a paid option.

It’s supply and demand.

The physical wait time in line will be shorter.

I’d much rather wait for 3 hours, but only 30 minutes physically in line, then wait 2 hours in a physical line.

But the real benefit is giving the guest the choice. The choice between waiting, potentially hours, but not in a physical line. Or the choice of paying extra for quicker gratification.

But even buying DPA isn’t instant — you’d still have to select a time slot and wait for the time slot.

 

[nickys]

You'll be able to ride every E-ticket attraction without the need to book a FP 60+ days in advance.

If you’re prepared to pay and the paid FPs don’t run out of course. Which they quite possibly will because they’re limited. Otherwise they are worthless. It also depends on how many you can buy at once.

everyone will have the option to skip the line on the major E-ticket rides. It will simply be a question of whether it is worth the $$$.

And if there are any left, see above.

Morning arriving guests should be able to guarantee themselves access to a minimum of 1 E-ticket attraction per day, for "free" and without a long line.

True. In fact those arriving in the 30 minutes early entry should be able to ride at least one and get a return time for another.

The big negative, late arriving guests may find themselves blocked from "Standby Pass" at popular attractions

And may find all paid FPs are gone. Certainly defeats the purpose of park hopping unless you can buy more than one at a time and in different parks.

 

[havoc315]

How are we so sure people won't still have to plan things out 60/30 days in advance? It's really going to just be a free-for-all? It was one thing to run to grab a FP back in the olden times, but to pay an additional (and ungodly fee) and then have to run... that's a little ridiculous.

Not sure of anything. But working on the assumption that it’s similar to the Paris and Shanghai systems— same day, not pre-booking.

And it works just like paper FP, except in your phone. When the line is long, grab a Standby pass and come back later. Just like you used to grab a paper FP and come back later.

And again, if like the other parks, the Standby Pass would be the “free” option.

 

[MisterPenguin]

If Disney would stick to their guns with the park reservation system and keep any day from being over-crowded, then, in effect, the Standby-Pass would hardly ever get initiated. This would lead to some people's preference: No FP system at all, and everyone using the one and only queue of standby.

It would be like it is right now with capped capacity and no FP.

Then, only occasionally, when one ride's queue gets too long, then Standby-Pass would be activated.

It's what people have been clamoring for...... if WDW keeps attendance appropriately capped.

Of course, the downside to this is people in their living rooms at home raging when there are no reservations to any of the parks on the week they're planning to go on vacation. Or, local APers raging when there are no more AP slots available on the day they want to go to WDW on a whim.

 

[CrashNet]

So, surge pricing, virtual queues that still offer a premiere paid pass if you can’t get a spot (meaning the only way to ride is pay), all e-tickets get booked quickly and you either wait in line or, if virtual, you don’t ride at all, and cost is per person per ride. *checks notes*. I think I got it.

 

[MrPromey]

Sure, if you only look at the left most boundary case. But that's not where the volume is. It's more in the idea that you avoided committing 2hrs to the line.. and you return and maybe get a 1hr line instead. Benefit to the customer...

It's only a real benefit to the customer if there is something worthwhile to do during those two hours.

Is there?

 

[el_super]

Sure, if you only look at the left most boundary case. But that's not where the volume is. It's more in the idea that you avoided committing 2hrs to the line.. and you return and maybe get a 1hr line instead. Benefit to the customer...

Oh yeah, I agree it's a benefit to the customer. I am a little curious on how the "additional times opening up..." portion of this works though, because it makes it seem as though they will portion off the VQ groups into more manageable chunks. More than likely that's just a safety valve to allow them to cleanly close the VQ when they don't think they need it anymore.

I didn't pay too much attention to the test they did at DLR, and now I kind of wish I had.

All this talk about what will or won't make things better.

The only thing that will universally improve the guest experience is increased attraction capacity.

That only works to a certain point. The demand is always going to be strongest for the newest attraction, and usually exceed the capacity of that one singular attraction. Adding more capacity certainly helps in some respects, but when everyone in your park wants to ride TRON and Space Mountain becomes the second tier disappointment, you gain very little in moving people around.

And worst case scenario, now that people are jumping hurdles and spending all their time trying to ride TRON and Space Mountain and Mine Train, you end up with things like Carousel of Progress and Small World that no one cares to see anymore.

 

[aliceismad]

It's what people have been clamoring for...... if WDW keeps attendance appropriately capped.

 

[ctrlaltdel]

So assuming WDW does adopt a version of Disney Premier Access... much will turn on implementation.

But we can start to draw some reasonable inferences and conclusions on its likely effects, likely winners and losers.
So some random likely points and commentary:

Ultimately I think this is the ideal version of what Disney hopes to achieve here. Who knows if it will actually work in practice. Since we don't know how popular the DPA pass will be, it throws a wrench into how well this could work. I do think it's fair to say it will be used it less than FP+. I think a lot of uproar in this thread is due to:

A. Perceived price-gouging by Disney (follows some trends of having added costs to the resorts, increased prices, benefits being taken away);
B. Not optimized to how they plan their vacation/want their Disney vacation to be. Totally valid concern. FP+ clearly helped many have a more relaxing vacation. Change is always difficult to deal with and go into the unknown, especially when you have spent the obscene amount of money a Disney vacation requires . It could be horrible or it could be much better than expected. I am sure that many people on this board (being as savvy as they get when it comes to taking a WDW vacation) will find the best ways to optimize their stay, but it could require some changes to do what they want from a parks perspective than what they previously anticipated, for which I totally understand and empathize with.

I happen to agree as well, it will not be of benefit to later park-goers. With the addition of doing early entry everyday and this potential change, rope-droppers who stay on-site get a sizable advantage and will definitely be able to do a decent bit if they plan well. Personally, I am a get-up early and do as much as I can all day from rope-drop until close (with a break in the mid-day when the heat/lines are the worst), but I know that is certainly not what everyone wants out of a vacation.

 

[el_super]

Of course, the downside to this is people in their living rooms at home raging when there are no reservations to any of the parks on the week they're planning to go on vacation.

Someone has to be angry or the system isn't working correctly.

 

[IanDLBZF]

If Disney would stick to their guns with the park reservation system and keep any day from being over-crowded, then, in effect, the Standby-Pass would hardly ever get initiated. This would lead to some people's preference: No FP system at all, and everyone using the one and only queue of standby.

It would be like it is right now with capped capacity and no FP.

Then, only occasionally, when one ride's queue gets too long, then Standby-Pass would be activated.

It's what people have been clamoring for...... if WDW keeps attendance appropriately capped.

The only downside I see for this is attractions that are super duper popular (e.g. FOP, Splash, 7DMT, or MFSR) will still have very long queues and Standby-Pass will be activated regularly.