
Primary Window: May–July 2026 (10th Anniversary Period)
Estimated likelihood: ~50–55% → the most probable window
Why this window fits best:
Shanghai Disney Resort opened on June 16, 2016, so the 10th anniversary celebrations will likely span May–July 2026.
Disney historically uses anniversaries to announce next-decade plans:
Hong Kong Disneyland’s 10th anniversary (2015) included a major multi-year expansion announcement.
Tokyo Disney Resort’s anniversaries have often been accompanied by future-park development reveals.
A Phase II park announcement could headline a 10th anniversary event attended by Chinese officials and Disney executives — a strong diplomatic and media moment.
Disney’s Q2 2026 earnings call (usually early May) could tease the “new gate” announcement as part of the company’s growth strategy, then formally unveil it in Shanghai in June.
Possible formats:
A ceremony with renderings and concept art for “Shanghai Disney Resort Phase II”
A statement that “planning and design work for a second park are officially underway”
Accompanying teaser video or logo reveal