I love that story. It says Disney plus will only have 1 million customers this year and only get to 25 milliom subscribers by the end of 2024. They hit that number on the mark didn't they. I know that Disney Plus will not sign up 5 million people a day, but they are substantially over 10 million customers in just over 72 hours and will likely pass 15 million soon. So do you really want to use that article as the basis?
Again, there’s a lot of ridiculousness and misinformation is this pile. I’ll unpack this one-by-one.
Firstly, the article was published on October 17, 2019, so their Disney+ projections for this year are largely irrelevant. They put the number in there as a placeholder, which should have been exceedingly obvious. Disney didn’t start providing estimates until just before November, so it would have been irresponsible analysis if they did put in a realistic number in mid October.
Secondly, you largely missed the point of why I provided that link in the first place. I didn’t share it to downplay Disney+ success; I did it to dispel your crazy notion that Disney+ will not only topple Netflix, but maybe even shoot it down to third place in the streaming wars. No reasonable projection believes that will happen at all. Only the overly confident and somewhat blinded Disney stakeholders.
Finally, yes, I will continue to use that article as a basis because Statista is a reliable resource, and you negating it because the website, wisely, used a conservative placeholder number instead of a higher total based on then incomplete projection estimates is very disingenuous.
Disney used an extremely conservative estimate to make sure they would crush it. I and others have said that when Disney announced that insanely low number. I will stick with my conservative 90 million worldwide number by the end of 2021. I know they will beat it but I am also conservative in my estimates but more realistic that Disney's original estimates.
Your estimate isn’t conservative at all. It‘s as aggressive as it can possibly be.
Touting "extraordinary demand," Disney announced that Disney Plus had signed up over 10 million users since launching early on Nov. 12.
variety.com
Longer term, Disney has projected that
Disney Plus will have 60 million-90 million subscribers worldwide by 2024, with one-third of those in the U.S. The company has told Wall Street it expects to spend a little over $1 billion on original content for Disney Plus in its fiscal year 2020, ramping up to the $2.5 billion range by 2024.
Your “conservative“ projection has Disney+ beating Disney’s own internal projections by three years. Your analysis is way off.
And to take my post full circle, and bring this back to my initial point of dispelling the Netflix will fall. Netflix current has about 160 million estimated subscribers, and are expected to hold the lead with over 200 million in 5 years.
Subscriber projections for Disney+ are all over the map.
observer.com
Per the outlet, Disney hopes to accrue 160 million subscribers between Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ over the next five years.
In short, Netflix isn't Falling to Disney anytime soon, let alone third place.
Your analysis reads like cheerleading, not actually based on reasonable measurable statistic.