Disney's Next Acquisition Speculation / Discussion

Disney Irish

Premium Member
What surprised me about the 21st Century Fox takeover was that Disney didn't even attempt to convince the FCC/DOJ that it should be permitted to buy Fox Broadcasting & FOX Sports Networks off the Murdoch's.

Especially when Viacom used to own 2 Broadcast Networks (CBS & UPN) between 2000-2006 (The FCC had changed the rules to permit that) until it's idiotic demerger, the FCC was looking to scrap the relevant rules anyway & the fact there is more competition than ever when it comes to purchasing sports broadcasting rights.

Likewise buying both of them off the Murdoch's would have massively helped ESPN considering the amount of Sports Rights both companies still hold to this day. Hence why it was a mistake for Disney to show little interest in either.
UPN was not seen as a major broadcast channel, unlike the big 4, ABC, NBC, CBS, and FOX.
 

Disney Republic

New Member
Well technically UPN merge with WB becoming the CW.

I mentioned UPN because technically speaking, The CW is a joint venture between WarnerMedia & ViacomCBS rather than wholly owned by the latter.

Let’s see the IPs Disney will get if they acquire Paramount & CBS.
Transformers (film distribution)
Garfield
Nickelodeon
Paranormal Activity
Scream
Indiana Jones (pre-Lucasfilm merger films.)
South Park
The Twilight Zone
Star Trek
Mission Impossible
The Godfather
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
Terminator

Lets not forget that that Disney would also obtain the Jack Ryan IP & the vast archive of current/previous shows that CBS Television Studios have.

Disney+ will be huge with the Nickelodeon IPs.

Disney+ with Nickelodeon would definately have an edge over HBO Max when it comes to kids programming.

Although don’t know if Disney will put Ren & Stimpy on Disney+ or Hulu.

They would be wise to put it on Hulu, especially considering the content in question...

Movie theatres will be gone one day...

To be fair, people have been predicting the death of cinema since Television Broadcasting became mainstream. So while I could very much see a major decline in cinema attendences over the next few years, I do hope Cinemas will continue to exist in some form or another.
 

Disney Republic

New Member
It's way more likely Comcast would want to acquire them before Disney. I do not see Disney making another big acquisition for a long time.

To be fair, I don't think anybody predicted that Disney would end up buying the Murdoch (Media) Empire even as late as 2014 (When they where looking to buy TimeWarner, their failure to get that deal done & their own family issues where the ultimate reason why they sold out to Disney). So with a major pandenmic at the moment & streaming getting more popular by the month, who knows what will happen to the media sector over the next few years.

And besides, while Comcast could easily buy them as well (Although I would have thought something like Charter would be a more important target for them), it would make sense for Disney to make the first move over ViacomCBS. Unless it wanted to see a serious competitor (and one that tried to buy Disney in the past) get strong enough to challenge them of course.

I would think that its very unlikely that the FCC would let Disney buy not only another broadcast channel (even though you say otherwise)

It's not me that is saying it, its the FCC themselves (or rather the Head of it) that are in favour of scrapping the rules in question, as is CBS themselves...funny that...

but also another large studio. There is already so much backlash with the current Hollywood consolidation that its unlikely Comcast with be allowed to either.

What few people realise is that with the likes of Amazon getting involved with media, the media sector is arguably more competitive that it has ever been. It's just that people need to realise that the Big Media firms are no longer Disney, News Corp, TimeWarner, NBCUniversal, Viacom/CBS & SPE, they are Disney, WarnerMedia, NBCUniversal, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google & Facebook.



UPN was not seen as a major broadcast channel, unlike the big 4, ABC, NBC, CBS, and FOX.

I know that (but thanks for reminding me), my point was that Disney could use it as part of their arguement to why they should be allowed to own ABC & CBS. Especially the part where the FCC changed their own rules to allow Viacom to own both CBS & UPN.

I'm sorry that just your opinion. I'm 100% sure Viacom could care less as long as they get money.

The Redstones have long made it clear they want to sell ViacomCBS to somebody else, and that was before COVID-19...
 
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
To be fair, I don't think anybody predicted that Disney would end up buying the Murdoch (Media) Empire even as late as 2014 (When they where looking to buy TimeWarner, their failure to get that deal done & their own family issues where the ultimate reason why they sold out to Disney). So with a major pandenmic at the moment & streaming getting more popular by the month, who knows what will happen to the media sector over the next few years.

And besides, while Comcast could easily buy them as well (Although I would have thought something like Charter would be a more important target for them), it would make sense for Disney to make the first move over ViacomCBS. Unless it wanted to see a serious competitor (and one that tried to buy Disney in the past) get strong enough to challenge them of course.



It's not me that is saying it, its the FCC themselves (or rather the Head of it) that are in favour of scrapping the rules in question, as is CBS themselves...funny that...



What few people realise is that with the likes of Amazon getting involved with media, the media sector is arguably more competitive that it has ever been. It's just that people need to realise that the Big Media firms are no longer Disney, News Corp, TimeWarner, NBCUniversal, Viacom/CBS & SPE, they are Disney, WarnerMedia, NBCUniversal, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google & Facebook.

Besides people can moan about how all the Hollywood Studios are merging with each other, it does not change the fact* that Capitol Hill (& Washington in general) is corrupt enough (No matter which of Trump or Biden ends up in the White House) to agree a Disney or Comcast buyout of ViacomCBS.

*Sorry for getting political here



I know that (but thanks for reminding me), my point was that Disney could use it as part of their arguement to why they should be allowed to own ABC & CBS. Especially the part where the FCC changed their own rules to allow Viacom to own both CBS & UPN.



The Redstones have long made it clear they want to sell ViacomCBS to somebody else, and that was before COVID-19...
Except the issue here was and always has been news and the prevention of one company controlling multiple news outlets. Your UPN example doesn't apply because UPN didn't have a news division. Hence the reason it was never seen as a major broadcast channel and why CBS could own it at the time.

Allowing Disney to purchase ViacomCBS would allow them to control both ABC News and CBS News, something the courts won't allow. Which is why the FCC attempts to overturn the rule keeps getting shot down in court.

So unless they are forced to spin out CBS News from the deal I don't see either Disney nor Comcast purchasing ViacomCBS.
 

Twilight_Roxas

Well-Known Member
If it happens I see these be on Disney+.
The Twilight Zone (original, 80s, movie, 2000s, reboot)
Star Trek (shows, and films)
Indiana Jones
Big Bang Theory
Young Sheldon
Transformers (all films)
Super 8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (films, and animated shows)
Garfield (specials, shows, and films)
Nickelodeon (all shows & films)
Forrest Gump

As for Ren & Stimpy Disney could put a disclaimer like their IPs on Disney+. While the controversial Adult party could be on Hulu.
 

The Grand Inquisitor

Well-Known Member
I agree. If Disney agrees to sell CBS News among other assets, then the courts might allow this merger to go through. I’m with Twilight and Disney Republic on this one.
I guess it's possible But I do not see Disney going with it especially since the Fox deal cost a lot and they haven't made it all back yet.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I guess it's possible But I do not see Disney going with it especially since the Fox deal cost a lot and they haven't made it all back yet.
Well it hasn’t been that long since Disney bought Fox so they wouldn’t have made it all back anyways even if every Fox film made a Billion.

No what people still don’t get is CBS News can’t be spun off. The reason, you’re still left with a major broadcast channel with no news or replaying ABC News. Again something the courts would prevent. It’s an all or nothing proposition. So if you want the CBS broadcast channel you have to get CBS News along with it. Which again the courts won’t allow for Disney or Comcast.

So if Redstone is looking for a buyer for ViacomCBS then he’ll have to look beyond Disney or Comcast.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Most likely WarnerMedia, but that would be tough due to Trump’s hate towards CNN.

This would be the only one that makes sense outside of Amazon or Google buying ViacomCBS.

Besides other than getting the distro rights back to the original Indiana Jones series there isn't much under ViacomCBS that I could see Disney wanting. Sony Pictures would be a much better acquisition for Disney than ViacomCBS, and we know that isn't happening anytime soon.
 

Disney Republic

New Member
Except the issue here was and always has been news and the prevention of one company controlling multiple news outlets. Your UPN example doesn't apply because UPN didn't have a news division. Hence the reason it was never seen as a major broadcast channel and why CBS could own it at the time.

UPN didn't have national news programmes themselves, however some of their affliates did have local news programmes. Likewise the rise of Television Station Duopoly's (and LMAs) has already resulted in reduced competition in local news broadcasts over the last 20 years or so. Plus one must not forget that at the time of the original Viacom/CBS merger back in 2000, it was against FCC rules at that particular time for one company to own more than 1 of the then "Big 6" Broadcast Networks*. So the FCC then changed the rules to allow Viacom to own both CBS & UPN.**

So if Disney did decide to buy ViacomCBS and thus own both ABC & CBS; considering the current lot that run both the FCC & DOJ, they would allow Disney to own both networks, hence why the latter is attempting to change the rules to permit such co-ownership.

*ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, The WB & UPN

**https://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/viacom-cleared-hold-cbs-and-upn-88089

Allowing Disney to purchase ViacomCBS would allow them to control both ABC News and CBS News, something the courts won't allow. Which is why the FCC attempts to overturn the rule keeps getting shot down in court.

You are talking about the Third Circuit Decision against the FCC back in late 2019 I suppose? Well the FCC (& DOJ) have decided to appeal that decision* in the Supreme Court; which considering the current composition of the Court at the moment, would likely decide in favour of the FCC on this matter.

Thus paving the way for the FCC themselves to permit the likes of Disney to own both ABC & CBS.

*https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t...e-media-ownership-rules-supreme-court-1290762

So unless they are forced to spin out CBS News from the deal I don't see either Disney nor Comcast purchasing ViacomCBS.

From a competition perspective, a ABC News-CBS News Merger would not significantly weaken competition within the national news broadcasting market, especially considering how CNN, FOX News & NBC News/MSNBC already provide strong competition to those two news divisions (especially considering how all 3 in question dominate said market).

So if Redstone is looking for a buyer for ViacomCBS then he’ll have to look beyond Disney or Comcast

It's no surprise then that CBS has been among the biggest lobbyists against the "Dual Networks Rule", mainly because that rule limits the number of potential buyers for ViacomCBS.
 

Disney Republic

New Member
I agree. If Disney agrees to sell CBS News among other assets, then the courts might allow this merger to go through. I’m with Twilight and Disney Republic on this one.

An ABC News-CBS News merger would not really reduce competition in the News Broadcasting area considering how CNN, Fox News & NBC News dominate this particular sector anyway, helped of course by the fact all 3 own cable news networks. In fact Disney themselves might well argue that a ABC News-CBS News merger would create viable competitor to the so called "Big 3"

Besides, if there is an actual concern in Washington over how a ABC News-CBS News merger would affect News Broadcasting (in a negative way), then they would be better off forcing concessions off Disney (like requring them to invest in journalism and have a 1 hour evening news programme) and/or increasing funding for PBS's news/current affairs programmes. Because that would be far more effective (in a postive way) than simply blocking a ABC News-CBS News Merger.

No what people still don’t get is CBS News can’t be spun off. The reason, you’re still left with a major broadcast channel with no news or replaying ABC News. Again something the courts would prevent. It’s an all or nothing proposition. So if you want the CBS broadcast channel you have to get CBS News along with it.

Despite my disagreements over your thoughts over a Disney takeover of ViacomCBS merger, I very much agree with you on that point.



Besides other than getting the distro rights back to the original Indiana Jones series there isn't much under ViacomCBS that I could see Disney wanting.

So Disney would not want the treasure trove of IP's that Paramount & CBS currently own (ones that Disney would do a better job in capitalising in compared to ViacomCBS), nor the CBS, Showtime & Comedy Central programming that would significantly improve the appeal of Hulu (& give it an edge over the likes of HBO Max, Peacock, Amazon, Apple TV & Netflix)?

Sony Pictures would be a much better acquisition for Disney than ViacomCBS, and we know that isn't happening anytime soon.

Disney need to buy Sony Pictures Entertainment if it wants to keep Spider-Man in the MCU for good (Especially when the Spiderverse is pretty much the only cashcow their film division currently has, television is a different story however...), unless of course they want to see a rival studio make money off their own IP's. So one could argue that Disney need to be getting both SPE & ViacomCBS going forward rather than pick one or the other.

I guess it's possible But I do not see Disney going with it especially since the Fox deal cost a lot and they haven't made it all back yet.

ViacomCBS is currently worth $10 Billion on the stock market, thus I would be very surprised if it ended up costing as much as 21st Century Fox ended up costing Disney. Likewise there is nothing stopping Disney from simply agreeing an all-stock deal with the Redstones* and thus avoid having to add debt to their balance sheet as a result of such a takeover.

*Considering that National Amusements (and thus the Redstones) own 80% of the voting rights of ViacomCBS, all Disney would need to do is an agree an all-stock deal with the Redstones (which they likely will to avoid paying taxes) and they would sucessfully purchase ViacomCBS, even if all the other shareholders who hold the other 20% of voting rights disagreed with the deal.
 
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
An ABC News-CBS News merger would not really reduce competition in the News Broadcasting area considering how CNN, Fox News & NBC News dominate this particular sector anyway, helped of course by the fact all 3 own cable news networks*. In fact Disney themselves might well argue that a ABC News-CBS News merger would create viable competitor to the so called "Big 3"

Besides, if there is an actual concern in Washington over how a ABC News-CBS News merger would affect News Broadcasting (in a negative way), they would be better off forcing concessions off Disney (like requring them to invest in journalism and have a 1 hour evening news programme) and/or increasing funding for PBS's news/current affairs programmes. Because that would be far more effective (in a postive way) than simply blocking a ABC News-CBS News Merger.
The issue is the courts which as you know has been blocking the FCC for the last 15 years. So unless somehow the Supreme Court overturns the lower court decision I don't see that changing. And given the Supreme Court has been siding with the lower court in these type of cases I don't expect them to overturn it either or even hear the case.

So Disney would not want the treasure trove of IP's that Paramount & CBS currently own (ones that Disney would do a better job in capitalising them compared to ViacomCBS), nor the CBS, Showtime & Comedy Central programming that would significantly improve the appeal of Hulu (& give it an edge over the likes of HBO Max, Peacock, Amazon, Apple TV & Netflix)?

Now you're making an argument based on your own personal desire. What would be in the best interest of Disney here? Would it be worth it for Disney in the long run to spend upwards of another 70+ B not to mention the regulatory fight in order to get some more IP? Most of which they wouldn't monetize anyways. I mean how much IP do you think Disney needs or even wants? Disney already has loads of IP from the back catalog of Fox that they haven't monetized. And why would you think Disney would do a better job of capitalizing on it? I mean I just mentioned they aren't even monetizing most of the Fox IP, so now you want to add ViacomCBS so they sit on that and won't monetize that either.

So one could argue that Disney need to be getting both SPE & ViacomCBS going forward rather than pick one or the other.

Only you are arguing that point. Most of us here already believe Disney will make a play for Sony Picture eventually. Still not convinced Disney even needs to make a play for ViacomCBS. You haven't made enough of an argument on why they need it for it to even become a compelling idea.
 
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Disney Republic

New Member
If it happens I see these be on Disney+.
The Twilight Zone (original, 80s, movie, 2000s, reboot)
Star Trek (shows, and films)
Indiana Jones
Big Bang Theory
Young Sheldon
Transformers (all films)
Super 8
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (films, and animated shows)
Garfield (specials, shows, and films)
Nickelodeon (all shows & films)
Forrest Gump

There would not be much sense in putting Star Trek, The Twilight Zone, Transformers, Super 8 & Forrest Gump on Disney+, especially when they are all a better fit for Hulu. Especially when Disney does not seem to be keen on putting PG-13 stuff on Disney+, unless they happen to be Star Wars or Marvel of course (as shown by their censoring of Splash).

Likewise the streaming rights to The Big Bang Theory are held by WarnerMedia themselves (hence why they will appear on HBO Max soon enough) & while CBS All Access do still have the streaming rights to Young Sheldon, I wouldn't be surprised if WarnerMedia end up getting the rights for themselves next time they become available.

With Indiana Jones, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Not sure if ViacomCBS own the streaming rights to the original series though), Garfield & Nickelodeon however, they will all fit in very well at Disney+

As for Ren & Stimpy Disney could put a disclaimer like their IPs on Disney+. While the controversial Adult party could be on Hulu.

The only reason why Dumbo appears on Disney+ at all (with a disclaimer) is due to how associated the film is with Disney as a whole, since this not the case with Ren & Stimpy, I can't see how Disney would be willing to put the show on Disney+ rather than on Hulu.
 
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
UPN didn't have national news programmes themselves, however some of their affliates did have local news programmes. Likewise the rise of Television Station Duopoly's (and LMAs) has already resulted in reduced competition in local news broadcasts over the last 20 years or so. Plus one must not forget that at the time of the original Viacom/CBS merger back in 2000, it was against FCC rules at that particular time for one company to own more than 1 of the then "Big 6" Broadcast Networks*. So the FCC then changed the rules to allow Viacom to own both CBS & UPN.**

So if Disney did decide to buy ViacomCBS and thus own both ABC & CBS; considering the current lot that run both the FCC & DOJ, they would allow Disney to own both networks, hence why the latter is attempting to change the rules to permit such co-ownership.

*ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, The WB & UPN

**https://www.broadcastingcable.com/news/viacom-cleared-hold-cbs-and-upn-88089

Again UPN wasn't a major national news outlet, just because a few affiliates had a news program doesn't all of a sudden make it a major news outlet. CBS News however is, they carry both local news programs as well as a nationwide news broadcast. And so is ABC News. So having both under the same company would be all the TV news under 4 companies, Disney, AT&T, Comcast and Fox. And I'm of the opinion despite what your personal opinion is that 1. Disney won't make a play for ViacomCBS, 2. the FCC/DOJ will likely block it, and 3. if for some reason the FCC/DOJ didn't block it that the courts certainly will.

You are talking about the Third Circuit Decision against the FCC back in late 2019 I suppose? Well the FCC (& DOJ) have decided to appeal that decision* in the Supreme Court; which considering the current composition of the Court at the moment, would likely decide in favour of the FCC on this matter.

Thus paving the way for the FCC themselves to permit the likes of Disney to own both ABC & CBS.

*https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/t...e-media-ownership-rules-supreme-court-1290762
You're making a huge assumption that 1. The Supreme Court would even take up the case, and 2. Side against the lower court. Both of which is unlikely. The biggest being the second as there is no proof right now that the lower court did anything that could be considered improper or isn't in the best interest of the people.

So my opinion is I highly doubt that 1. the case will be heard, and 2. that the SC would even side against the lower court.

From a competition perspective, a ABC News-CBS News Merger would not significantly weaken competition within the national news broadcasting market, especially considering how CNN, FOX News & NBC News/MSNBC already provide strong competition to those two news divisions (especially considering how all 3 in question dominate said market).

Except it would, because it would bring the major news outlets under 4 companies, Disney, AT&T, Comcast and Fox.

Again I don't see how the FCC/DOJ or even the courts would allow that to happen. I get you want it, but it just doesn't make sense from a legal standpoint. Not to mention it really doesn't make sense from Disney's standpoint.
 

Twilight_Roxas

Well-Known Member
CBS has the distribution rights to the 1987 animated series of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles so most likely they have the streaming rights making that series be able to go on Disney+. Although one or two Garfield specials be possible or impossible to be on Disney+ would be Garfield his 9 lives, and Garfield Babes & Bullets.
 

Disney Republic

New Member
The issue is the courts which as you know has been blocking the FCC for the last 15 years. So unless somehow the Supreme Court overturns the lower court decision I don't see that changing. And given the Supreme Court has been siding with the lower court in these type of cases I don't expect them to overturn it either or even hear the case.



Now you're making an argument based on your own personal desire.

My arguement is that it is in Disney's best interests to purchase ViacomCBS, an arguement that I have based on 6 main aspects:

1: The amount of IP/Content that ViacomCBS brings to the House of Mouse. Which in turn would help reduce the depenence Disney's film division has on Star Wars & Marvel.

2: The savings that can be made by intergrating ViacomCBS into Disney.

3: How said content IP/Content can improve the competitiveness of Hulu against the likes of HBO Max, Peacock, Amazon Prime, Netflix & Apple TV

4: It would avoid the possiblity that a company like NBCUniversal or WarnerMedia would end up buying ViacomCBS themselves & thus end up become a more serious competitor to the likes of Disney.

5: ViacomCBS's low stock price makes a takeover of said company become a lot cheaper that it would otherwise be the case (for a company of that size).

6: Buying ViacomCBS would make it harder for the likes of Apple to launch a takeover attempt of Disney (I personally don't think Apple will use the COVID-19 crisis to launch a takeover of Disney, however I could see one of the FAANG's making a serious move for Disney in the near future).

Would it be worth it for Disney in the long run to spend upwards of another 70+ B not to mention the regulatory fight in order to get some more IP?

ViacomCBS would not cost anything like $70 Billion, especially when they share price is currently at $10 Billion for a start.

I mean how much IP do you think Disney needs or even wants?

As much as Disney can get away with legally speaking. From the perspective of Disney of course.

Disney already has loads of IP from the back catalog of Fox that they haven't monetized. And why would you think Disney would do a better job of capitalizing on it? I mean I just mentioned they aren't even monetizing most of the Fox IP, so now you want to add ViacomCBS so they sit on that and won't monetize that either.

I would agree that Disney needs to do more to monetize the Fox IP's they now own (although its still early days after said takeover, to be fair), but that on its own is not an arguement that Disney should not acqure more IP's going forward, rather it is arguement that Disney need to have more of a focus (film division wise) beyond Star Wars, Disney Animation/Live Action & Marvel.

As for why Disney would do a better job in capitalising on ViacomCBS's IPs than the Redstones themselves. Well all one would need to do is point out how Disney have sucessfully managed to capitalise on their own IP's (as well as the ones Pixar, Lucasfilm & Marvel have) under both Eisner & Iger and then compare it to how the Redstones have managed Viacom + CBS since they first began to build up their empire from the Mid-90s onward...

Only you are arguing that point.

It doesn't mean it is an incorrect one.

Most of us here already believe Disney will make a play for Sony Picture eventually.

Including myself, especially when there are several other reasons why Disney should purchase SPE besides the Spider-Man angle.

Still not convinced Disney even needs to make a play for ViacomCBS.

Even for $20-30 Billion?

Again UPN wasn't a major national news outlet, just because a few affiliates had a news program doesn't all of a sudden make it a major news outlet.

I am not saying that UPN was a major player on the broadcast news front; my point was the rise of Television Station Duopoly's (and LMAs) has reduced competition on the news broadcasting front (even if it is at a local level alone), yet it was legally allowed to happen. In fact one could argue that the original Viacom/CBS merger (Which led to Viacom owning CBS & UPN) and Fox's takeover on Chris-Craft (Which owned a lot of the key UPN Stations) both played a big part in that trend becoming a reality.

CBS News however is, they carry both local news programs as well as a nationwide news broadcast. And so is ABC News. So having both under the same company would be all the TV news under 4 companies, Disney, AT&T, Comcast and Fox.

The thing is though, Fox (via Fox News), Comcast (via MSNBC/NBC News) & AT&T (via CNN) are already the leading players in the news broadcasting sector compared to the likes of ABC News & CBS News*. So one could argue that a ABC News-CBS News merger would create a stronger 4th competitor to these so called "Big 3".



And I'm of the opinion despite what your personal opinion is that 1. Disney won't make a play for ViacomCBS

I am not saying that they will make a move for ViacomCBS, I am saying that it is in Disney's best interests to purchase said company.

2. the FCC/DOJ will likely block it

You mean the same FCC that wants to relax the rules on broadcasting ownership (and thus pave the way for possible deals such as Disney





Except it would, because it would bring the major news outlets under 4 companies, Disney, AT&T, Comcast and Fox.

The United States has 5 major broadcast news outlets at the moment, of those 3 of them are the dominant players in that market. An ABC News-CBS News Merger would not signficantly reduce the number of major broadcast news outlets in that market (from 5 to 4 basically), nor change the fact that CNN, Fox News & MSNBC/NBC News are the leading players in said market.
 
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