How can we conclude there's no consideration for the southern Simba lot (DCA's half)? It seems to me the debate over whether Avatar will go in Hollywood Backlot indicates that the Simba lot is very much under consideration for development.
I think we should separate fans debating from Disney debating.
Are we not all just fans debating on forums? It cuts both ways:
Disney hasn't announced officially where Coco or Avatar are going, and while I agree that it would be preferable to have both go into Pixar Pier/Hollywood Backlot, if we're "separating fans debating from Disney debating" then surely it's also premature to conclude that they won't utilize the Simba lot
I don't think the difference between developing Disneyland's half of Simba vs DCA's half is significant enough to be the primary factor driving a decision to do one before the other. That decision should be driven by how much each park needs new capacity. I expect that after Avatar and New Tomorrowland it will be DCA that needs new experiences.
Partly it’s that Disneyland forward, if it ever fully happens, will be piecemeal. A strip with an entry plaza is more organic than the very multiphasic approach DCA would need to connect to the esplanade. It’s quite a long way wrapping around the Pixar hotel.
Disney
could choose to develop the plot piecemeal, it certainly seems that would be the easier way to go, but you're assuming that the challenges of developing the southern half outweigh the benefits of leveling DCA up and selling all those sweet new park-view rooms.
It seems to me, and I am clearly no expert, that it would be less difficult/ambitious to develop around the Pixar hotel than it would be to say...completely renovate the main entrance to DCA and wrap the park in construction walls for many years, but they showed they were willing to do so for the DCA 2.0 redevelopment
The significance of its current investment cycle within exclusively the current boundaries seems to be pushing back such a large investment.
That's one way to interpret it - again, I'll point out that Disney has not announced that its investment cycle will occur within the current boundaries, but even if it plays out as us "fans debating things on the internet" expect it to doesn't necessarily mean Disney will then prioritize the DL portion of DLForward.
In fact, if Disney does concentrate this tranche of projects within DCA I might interpret that as an indicator that they see strengthening DCA as the priority which would then seem to be pushing back on larger investments for DL's expansion pad. It's likely Disney would want to evaluate the impact of this round of investment before choosing where to next deploy capital.
The second thing is that the lack of redevelopment of Star Wars Trading Post and the Disney+ building feels like a purposeful choice to me.
The third is that Disneyland actually operationally would benefit from a secondary entry/exit. I think that is partially informing the need to expand first. Pixar hotel and Grand Cal both already have alternative DCA entrances and the park doesn’t have the same attendance crush. As of now at least.
I also suspect there may be an exit (don’t know about an entry) from Disneyland out to the parking garages. The ability for post-Fantasmic traffic to actually go another direction seems like a big game changer for that parks operations.
I acknowledge I’m just aggressively speculating.
This is a really excellent point - if the operational headache of post-Fantasmic crowd surge is a bigger priority than selling park-view rooms and strengthening DCA in terms of capacity and attendance draw then that would be a totally valid reason for Disney to want to develop the northern half of DLF first
My suspicion would be that the internal ROI would be much higher for a project that can allow Pixar hotel to charge premium rates vs a project that solves some operational issues (and might lead to less late night merchandise sales from those captive Fantasmic crowds slowly filtering through Main St)