Disneyland To Open Sept. 16th?

[mandelbrot]

The parks will open at some point (still under Disney management lol) but they may have to restrict or eliminate some indoor experiences. Keep in mind that the new theme park guidelines will ensure that once theme parks open they will stay open. That may mean that opening will still be weeks or months away. There's likely to be another surge in cases soon for a variety of reasons and nobody wants to relive the debacle of July's cancelled opening.

Downtown Disney restaurants are now cleared for limited indoor dining but most locations will take about three weeks to implement it. In three weeks we will see if Labor Day celebrations caused the virus to spread. It's entirely possible another surge in Covid cases pushes Orange County back into purple before indoor dining happens at DLR.

 

[Disney Irish]

Newsom's rollout was all very confusing, but it's actually 3 weeks now that we have the first re-assessment out of the way. Here's the details from the state's website on how a county moves through the Tiers...

1. A county must have been in the current tier for a minimum of three weeks, except as described in the "Initial step applied on August 28, 2020" section above.
2. A county must meet criteria for the next tier for both measures for the prior two consecutive weeks in order to progress to the next tier.

You have to meet the criteria for the next lower tier for two consecutive weeks, but you must remain in your current tier for three weeks at a time. It's the cases per 100K standard that's the hardest to achieve.

So the next re-assesment for all counties is Tuesday, September 29th. Los Angeles County has to get down into the Red Tier for two consecutive weeks before that with a 7 day lag; weeks ending 9/22 and 9/15. I really don't see how LA is going to make it to Red by 9/29, but Orange County could get downgraded to Orange by then if the numbers continue to drop as fast as they have in OC the past couple months.

Los Angeles County 9/8 = 11 Cases Per 100K
Orange County 9/8 = 4.9 Cases Per 100K

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Except according to Newsom today counties are going to be reassessed over the next week or two again in order to be given a chance to go to Red. So I don't see any reason why that couldn't apply to LA County if they get their act together.

 

[TP2000]

Except according to Newsom today counties are going to be reassessed over the next week or two again in order to be given a chance to go to Red. So I don't see any reason why that couldn't apply to LA County if they get their act together.

He said that? That's not what his website says. Nor what he said two weeks ago.

But of course he said that. Because... science and data. Also dynamic conversations.

 

[TP2000]

Downtown Disney restaurants are now cleared for limited indoor dining but most locations will take about three weeks to implement it. In three weeks we will see if Labor Day celebrations caused the virus to spread. It's entirely possible another surge in Covid cases pushes Orange County back into purple before indoor dining happens at DLR.

Orange County is already half Orange on the Tier system. And OC's stats have been dropping like a rock for weeks, and this is all based on data only through 8/28 and it's already 9/9.

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Let's face it, this thing is over. It's winding down. And whatever happens next, no one is going to allow OC to go back into some made-up Naughty Tier a third time. The writing is already on the wall.

 

[Disney Irish]

He said that? That's not what his website says. Nor what he said two weeks ago.

But of course he said that. Because... science and data. Also dynamic conversations.

Yes he said that in response to a question about counties who thought they would be going to Red but didn’t. However he didn’t state it was limited to only those counties, just that counties will be reassessed over the next week or two to be given a chance to go to Red. Indicating he actually does want things to reopen despite all the rhetoric about him wanting to keep everything closed.

 

[TP2000]

Yes he said that in response to a question about counties who thought they would be going to Red but didn’t. However he didn’t state it was limited to only those counties, just that counties will be reassessed over the next week or two to be given a chance to go to Red. Indicating he actually does want things to reopen despite all the rhetoric about him wanting to keep everything closed.

Oh.

Then I wonder, why did he roll out a brand new system and snazzy website two weeks ago that says the exact opposite?

1. A county must have been in the current tier for a minimum of three weeks, except as described in the "Initial step applied on August 28, 2020" section above.
2. A county must meet criteria for the next tier for both measures for the prior two consecutive weeks in order to progress to the next tier.

COVID-19 Home

covid19.ca.gov

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh.

Then I wonder, why did he roll out a brand new system and snazzy website two weeks ago that says the exact opposite?

My opinion is that it was expected that more would be going to Red tier when the system was first announced. So In order to make sure more get to Red tier they are going re-reassess in a week or two.

Point is while I could be wrong I believe Newsom wants most of the State to be in Red tier as we move further into fall.

 

[TP2000]

My opinion is that it was expected that more would be going to Red tier when the system was first announced. So In order to make sure more get to Red tier they are going re-reassess in a week or two.

Point is while I could be wrong I believe Newsom wants most of the State to be in Red tier as we move further into fall.

Okay. That's all very confusing. And not at all what is posted on the state's official Covid website that Governor Newsom redesigned for the third time two weeks ago after a big fancy press conference.

So Newsom has changed it again and is just going to make it up each week as we go along? And businesses, schools, and local governments plan for that constantly changing re-assessment... how exactly?

 

[Disney Irish]

Okay. That's all very confusing. And not at all what is posted on the state's official Covid website that Governor Newsom redesigned for the third time two weeks ago after a big fancy press conference.

So Newsom has changed it again and is just going to make it up each week as we go along? And businesses, schools, and local governments plan for that constantly changing re-assessment... how exactly?

I don't think really anything has really changed, same criteria is being used. The counties can asked to be reassessed under this new process, especially if they find discrepancies in how the state tabulated the counties data. So in reality this actually falls right in line with what is posted on the states own website.

 

[TP2000]

I don't think really anything has really changed, same criteria is being used. The counties can asked to be reassessed under this new process, especially if they find discrepancies in how the state tabulated the counties data. So in reality this actually falls right in line with what is posted on the states own website.

Well, I admire your optimism!

But you do realize, that you are now in charge of translating the SacramentoSpeak and keeping us updated, right?

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, I admire your optimism!

But you do realize, that you are now in charge of translating the SacramentoSpeak and keeping us updated, right?

Well I'm humbled by this dubious honor. However I must decline as I'm just a humble servant in this quest for knowledge.

 

[TP2000]

Well I'm humbled by this dubious honor. However I must decline as I'm just a humble servant in this quest for knowledge.

I don't think you understand. I now have a huge dinner party to prep for. @Darkbeer is busy with an election. People are trying to get their kids to do their Distance Learning bull. There's no one else!

Not that you weren't our first choice.

 

[iLikeMountains]

Skip to 11:14 for the signs coming out.

 

[Askimosita]

Skip to 11:14 for the signs coming out.

So, I am usually an optimistic, happy person about all of this. But maybe all of this quarantine stuff has gotten to me, and I am thinking maybe the Sacramento crew was here monitoring and may have seen a lot of people removing masks to take photos with the gates or something. And told Disney they need to expand the signage to these areas too, to assure proper COVID protocols throughout the park? Though also I’d argue that this is outside and usually there are no other people there atm and you can easily maintain a 30+ foot distance a part from another person, let alone 6.

I did want to add that I went for dinner reservation this weekend to la brea, and eavesdropped on a convo between a high up CM that walks the parks and a buddie at the DCA gates. I got a few things from that conversation.
1) Snow White and HM are not done being refurbed. I can almost guarantee if this is the case now that we almost certainly won’t get HMH. Especially now that the Christmas parties and candlelight professional (and Halloween parties for that matter) are cancelled.
2) They were going to have a secondary convo (tertiary? Quaternary? Idk how many times they’ve spoken) on Tuesday with Newsom, after OC turned red. They were hoping that Tuesday they’d get guidelines, or set a plan in motion. That’s why I am so curious with @Darkbeer1 ’s comment. I didn’t know if it had anything to do with what I overheard, and if so, it doesn’t make me feel very good lol
3) they are relying a lot on that study group questionaire that was mentioned by a member on this thread on how to handle APs.

I was initially going to just keep to myself because of all of the back and forth with the state government and some of the criticism in this thread, but I feel that maybe if someone else wants to hear or has another piece of the puzzle that would broaden this, it could help someone else.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I'm calling it now...Disneyland will wait until the new year. Lets say they get approval mid October. They would need about 1-1.5 months to prepare (training, bringing ppl back on board, etc) that puts them right in the middle of the holiday season. To save money and not have to worry about holiday crowds, I see them putting it off until Jan.

 

[Askimosita]

I'm calling it now...Disneyland will wait until the new year. Lets say they get approval mid October. They would need about 1-1.5 months to prepare (training, bringing ppl back on board, etc) that puts them right in the middle of the holiday season. To save money and not have to worry about holiday crowds, I see them putting it off until Jan.

I think it has been said previously that it will not take that long to reopen; likewise, it took WDW a month from calling back CMs but they have 4 theme parks and many, many hotels (25? Though not all are open) , as well as monorails, ferries, buses, and skyliner that are their own ball game in figuring out how to transport guests. That took a month, so I don’t think that DL would need 1-1.5 months. not to mention every Disney park around the globe is open (or has reopened) other than ours, and this serves as a template that makes procedures easier to establish now based on what worked or what didn’t. Also, given the back and forth of Disney vs Newsom, I would believe any opening date, from tomorrow to Spring 2021.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think it has been said previously that it will not take that long to reopen; likewise, it took WDW a month from calling back CMs but they have 4 theme parks and many, many hotels (25? Though not all are open) , as well as monorails, ferries, buses, and skyliner that are their own ball game in figuring out how to transport guests. That took a month, so I don’t think that DL would need 1-1.5 months. not to mention every Disney park around the globe is open (or has reopened) other than ours, and this serves as a template that makes procedures easier to establish now based on what worked or what didn’t. Also, given the back and forth of Disney vs Newsom, I would believe any opening date, from tomorrow to Spring 2021.

Not to mention that its been seen by yourself and others, even video proof, showing Disney has been preparing for weeks now for a reopening.

 

[el_super]

So, I am usually an optimistic, happy person about all of this. But maybe all of this quarantine stuff has gotten to me, and I am thinking maybe the Sacramento crew was here monitoring and may have seen a lot of people removing masks to take photos with the gates or something.

That might be over thinking it a bit. They were going to have the signs made up at some point anyway (for the July reopening) so it could just be that their delivery to the main entrance was delayed.

1) Snow White and HM are not done being refurbed. I can almost guarantee if this is the case now that we almost certainly won’t get HMH. Especially now that the Christmas parties and candlelight professional (and Halloween parties for that matter) are cancelled.

I'd say it's about 50/50 right now. Tacking on the extra 2-3 weeks at the end of the refurbishment to swap out the decorations wouldn't be all that much of a inconvenience or expense (and the point of the refurbishment was refreshing some of the infrastructure for HMH). The bigger question marks here are all related to capacity, whether they want to put any effort into drawing a crowd and really how they handle the AP problem. If they feel they need a reason to justify expensive single day admission tickets, they might justify the expense of reverting the mansion back in January.

2) They were going to have a secondary convo (tertiary? Quaternary? Idk how many times they’ve spoken) on Tuesday with Newsom, after OC turned red. They were hoping that Tuesday they’d get guidelines, or set a plan in motion.

Honestly think that the crux of this argument right now is whether it makes sense to open a theme park in Orange County, when the surrounding counties (LA/Riverside/San Bernardino) are all still purple. That concern alone would justify having theme parks removed from the county guidelines since they inherently would promote travel between counties, which is still being advised against at the state level. If there was a way to restrict attendance at Disneyland to only Orange County, this wouldn't be as big of an issue and something that governor's office could easily delegate to the county to decide.

Encouraging unnecessary traveling and the sheer number of interactions per person/per visit are the biggest considerations for reopening Disneyland.

Originally theme parks were pegged to reopen in the Phase 3/"Yellow" tier with outdoor operations only. I'd actually believe that Disney objected to the idea of reopening without most of their attractions, but I doubt with the pressure from other counties, that the state will budge on that restriction.

3) they are relying a lot on that study group questionaire that was mentioned by a member on this thread on how to handle APs.

I feel that the AP problem is probably a more complicated issue than even I can imagine. That's where the real drama will be.

I'm calling it now...Disneyland will wait until the new year. Lets say they get approval mid October. They would need about 1-1.5 months to prepare (training, bringing ppl back on board, etc) that puts them right in the middle of the holiday season. To save money and not have to worry about holiday crowds, I see them putting it off until Jan.

This goes back to that 50/50 scenario with the HMH. If the goal is to limit capacity and long distance travel, opening during the holidays may be a bad idea. If the goal is to make sure there is enough paying customers in the park, opening during the holidays is a GREAT idea. But then the last thing you would want to do is reopen the park and fill it with a bunch of APs...

 

[el_super]

That took a month, so I don’t think that DL would need 1-1.5 months. not to mention every Disney park around the globe is open (or has reopened) other than ours, and this serves as a template that makes procedures easier to establish now based on what worked or what didn’t. Also, given the back and forth of Disney vs Newsom, I would believe any opening date, from tomorrow to Spring 2021.

No other park was closed for as long as Disneyland has been. The majority of Disneyland's cast members have not been called back to work, and their job knowledge will expire after being away for 6 months. If this goes into next month, there may not technically be any Cast Members authorized to operate any attraction at DLR. Figuring you have to give CMs some time before being recalled to work, and now potentially a few days of state mandated training before they are ready to reopen... well.... it won't be tomorrow.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

This goes back to that 50/50 scenario with the HMH. If the goal is to limit capacity and long distance travel, opening during the holidays may be a bad idea. If the goal is to make sure there is enough paying customers in the park, opening during the holidays is a GREAT idea. But then the last thing you would want to do is reopen the park and fill it with a bunch of APs...

No other park was closed for as long as Disneyland has been. The majority of Disneyland's cast members have not been called back to work, and their job knowledge will expire after being away for 6 months. If this goes into next month, there may not technically be any Cast Members authorized to operate any attraction at DLR. Figuring you have to give CMs some time before being recalled to work, and now potentially a few days of state mandated training before they are ready to reopen... well.... it won't be tomorrow.

This is why I'm thinking DL may bite the bullet and hold off right now.