I don't know why people listen to Al Lutz, unless it is something that has been officially announced, he gets it wrong 90% of the time.
I have done the math before that shows that Annual Passholders are what keeps the parks going, especially in the off season. If it weren't for them, the parks wouldn't be able to operate year around, at least not 7 days a week, don't believe me? Take a look at Magic Mountain, where it's not in a very convienent location for Annual Passholders to visit frequently during the week in the off season, so they have to shut down. Knott's is in a better location and so they are able to run seven days a week, 365 days a year and both parks have become very similar in the types of attractions they offer. Now neither have the appeal of Disney, but even so a lot of people like both, in addition magic mountain is failing miserably this year, because locals from the la area who have went in years past are
not going this year, due to the distance and they are what has been keeping it running, Disney also has the problem of needing the locals, but it is in such a populated area that it can get them. Remember tourism is down a lot, but this can be a good thing for the resort, as it currently is in need of some major TLC and passholders are overall far more forgiving about having multiple attractions closed at once, as they figure that they can just ride them the next time that they come.
Bottom line is on average over the course of a year Annual Passholder that live locally will spend about $200 per pass holder over just 10 visits and just counting food and drinks at $20 per visit, that doesn't sound like a lot, but take a family of four and youbare talking about $800 that is almost guaranteed money. Now add in merchandise, parking, other miscellaneous expenses and that can easily jump up to $2000 or more per year for a family of four. Now add in the fact that 10 visits per year is on the low end and that a lot of passholders will go just after work for dinner and a few rides in addition to 30 or so full day visits during the year and you can see the numbers adding up fast. And don't forget to add in the cost of the passes themselves.
What about tourists you ask? Well a lot of them that are here for more than two days will stay off property, will bring food in, even if it's just snacks, will have maybe on sit down meal during their trip, eat one, maybe two meals in the park a day and keep it as cheap as possible. Overall on food bought in the parks they spend about $12 dollars a day per person at say five days, this totals $60 a day, so for that family of four $240, they will spend about $200 on merchandise, so for what Disney gets $440, not counting tickets. Also rember that Annual Passholders are far
more likely to use table service restaurants.
You might ask, well how do you know all of this? Simple I observe, I talk with people, I use my brain and realize just how few onsite rooms there are compared to offsite rooms (now surrounding businesses probably benefit more from tourists than passholders, but Disney and downtown Disney doesn't)
as for the crowds, they won't be too bad onf fri and sat, but you can expect to park in Pumba, Buzz Light Year, pongo, garden walk or simba, because passholders do tend to come with fewer people per car, but most of these lots have air conditioned shuttles that are closer to your car and drop off closer to the gates than the trams in the parking structure, so it could work out to your favor. I would expect the parks to reach capacity Sunday through Thursday though, as this is also the end of summer vacation, fri and sat are still blackout dates for a lot of the passes, all of this will continue until labor day, then it will start thinning out that week, by the next week crowds will
be in our winter season mode until thanksgiving, then it will start getting more
crowded for about a week, then die down again until about a week before Christmas ( the Saturday before that) as that is when Christmas vacations begin, this will continue through the Sunday after New Years day and then the crowds will become even smaller than after labor day until spring break starts. Then, due to how schools now work this pretty much marks the begining of Summer season that will continue through labor day, with a few weeks with slower crowds in April and may.
