Disneyland During A Recession - Anaheim's 2022-23 Strategy?

[Disney Irish]

The NBER is always a few quarters late, because they only use backwards-looking data.

The NBER didn't declare the 2008 recession began until their press release on December 8th, 2008. The problem is that the reality a recession had begun had already landed with a thud on the desk of every sharp pencil boy in America, plus most middle class homeowners who knew it months ago.

GDP shrunk by 2.5% in 2008, but the NBER didn't announce a recession had begun until mid December of '08. Think about that.

In the sinking economy of '08, the panic had already set in at TDA and in Burbank. Disneyland announced "Get In Free On Your Birthday In 2009!" on September 18th, 2008. Three months before the NBER made their backwards-looking announcement on '08.

The NBER reminds me of the Bureau of International Expositions headquartered in Paris, the official board of very important "experts" who declare with great fanfare and pomposity which expositions are actually "World's Fairs". The Bureau has arcane and trivial rules they create that determine what is a World's Fair, and what is not. The team that produced the 1962 Seattle World's Fair made a trip to Paris in 1961 to wine and dine the Bureau staff and convince them to declare their Seattle event a World's Fair. They brought a map of North America to point out where Seattle was, since no one east of Spokane had heard of it before. It worked, as Parisian bureaucrats love nothing more than wining and dining and ego-stroking.

In 1963, the great New Yorker and planner Robert Moses sent them a telegram saying he needed their stamp of approval for his 1964-65 New York World's Fair, arguably a much bigger and grander affair than Seattle in '62. The Bureau refused because the New York team didn't come visit them in person and take them to dinner. Officially, the 1964-65 New York World's Fair was not a World's Fair. It was an imposter, a sham, a tawdry collection of carnival games and corporate sales pitches in Flushing Meadows that only pretended to be a World's Fair.

But honestly, we all know the 1964-65 New York World's Fair really was a World's Fair, and possibly the greatest one ever produced. Even if the Bureau of International Expositions refused to admit it.

Look at their website, they don't even acknowledge New York 1964-65 even happened or ever existed.

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www.bie-paris.org

Sorry, but it still must be declared by the NBER. And while they look at previous data and lags on the official call, they are still the only official tally when it comes to what is and is not a recession in the US. Otherwise you could just have recession being called whenever someone just thinks it'll be advantageous to them. So you need an official arbiter and the NBER is it in the US, like it or not.

Also as stated its more than just GDP which is an indication of whether the economy is in a recession or not. I mean seriously you have 3.5% historically low unemployment right now, job growth continuing month after month, how can there be a recession with such low employment and continued job growth?

 

[CaptinEO]

It's pretty straight forward. Per Google and the Oxford Dictionary, the definition of a recession is at least two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We've already had two now, we're working on the third currently.

re·ces·sion
/rəˈseSH(ə)n/
noun

1. a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
   
   

This is what I thought too yet others want to argue it.

 

[drizgirl]

The NBER is always a few quarters late, because they only use backwards-looking data.

The NBER didn't declare the 2008 recession began until their press release on December 8th, 2008. The problem is that the reality a recession had begun had already landed with a thud on the desk of every sharp pencil boy in America, plus most middle class homeowners who knew it months ago.

GDP shrunk by 2.5% in 2008, but the NBER didn't announce a recession had begun until mid December of '08. Think about that.

Oh look at that. A month after a really big election.

 

[TP2000]

Regardless what acronym of "experts" finally declares it real, there's obviously problems with consumer spending right now. Any company big or small is dealing with it.

The question is how does Disneyland react? I'm hoping they go with something temporary and fleeting, like a Christmas ticket sale or something like their 3-day locals ticket offers they've done in the past.

Whatever they've got cooking for Magic Keys needs to be done very, very carefully. Or else they're right back in the same mess they created for themselves a dozen years ago.

 

[EPCOTCenterLover]

All I know is food, gasoline, clothing, and housing prices in my area have risen dramatically.

 

[Californian Elitist]

In this case, Google and the Oxford Dictionary.

People sure have trouble with pronouns these days.

I agree, many do. Seems some of them are right here.

 

[Disney Irish]

Regardless what acronym of "experts" finally declares it real, there's obviously problems with consumer spending right now. Any company big or small is dealing with it.

The question is how does Disneyland react? I'm hoping they go with something temporary and fleeting, like a Christmas ticket sale or something like their 3-day locals ticket offers they've done in the past.

Whatever they've got cooking for Magic Keys needs to be done very, very carefully. Or else they're right back in the same mess they created for themselves a dozen years ago.

There actually is a real economic term for what we're going through right now, its called Boomflation.

Its when you have an economy with continued job and wage growth, but have continued high inflation. Which as the term suggests its the opposite of Stagflation which is when you have a stagnate economy of low to no job and wage growth. And if the high inflation is not corrected just the same as in Stagflation it can lead to a recession, but its less likely due to the job and wage growth. So with the Fed quickly raising rates the likelihood of an actual recession is less and less likely as time goes on. And this is starting to be baked in by Wall Street analysts which is why you've seen the markets rise recently including Disney stock. It'll be interesting to see what Disney will say later this week when they release Q3 earnings.

Suddenly, stock-market investors are wrestling with 'boomflation' after hot July jobs report

Is it stagflation? Recession? Or is something else gripping the U.S. economy that the Federal Reserve and investors need to consider?

www.marketwatch.com

As for what DLR will do, I expect they will do what they normally do in times of uncertainty to ensure continued operations, make cuts.

 

[GiveMeTheMusic]

wHaT's DiSnEyLaNd's pLaN fOr tHe rEcEsSiOn?

Scorching hot Monday in August:

Table service dining availability for this evening for 2:

Wow, I hope Disneyland can survive these devastating economic conditions!

 

[Disstevefan1]

I know this thread is about DLR but look at this chart about WDW tickets. The chart for DLR can't be much different...

 

[TP2000]

wHaT's DiSnEyLaNd's pLaN fOr tHe rEcEsSiOn?

Scorching hot Monday in August:

View attachment 658981View attachment 658982View attachment 658983

Table service dining availability for this evening for 2:
View attachment 658984

Wow, I hope Disneyland can survive these devastating economic conditions!

Which is EXACTLY my point. Thank you for your support.

The attendance barely budged down by a single percentage point or two in 2008 and TDA panicked like crazy. They rolled out Free Birthday Tickets! for 2009, and let the people apply their free ticket as a down payment for a cheap AP.

The rest is the sad history of the Annual Pass Program of the 2010's. Will TDA manage their panic better this time?

 

[TP2000]

It should also be remembered that Disneyland laid off hundreds of salaried CM's and park managers in early 2009 as a result of the tiny '08 attendance softening. The panic in TDA was real.

Disney cuts 1,900 jobs at theme parks

Disney eliminates about 1,900 jobs at its domestic theme parks

www.latimes.com

 

[Disstevefan1]

It should also be remembered that Disneyland laid off hundreds of salaried CM's and park managers in early 2009 as a result of the tiny '08 attendance softening. The panic in TDA was real.

Disney cuts 1,900 jobs at theme parks

Disney eliminates about 1,900 jobs at its domestic theme parks

www.latimes.com

They laid off a lot more due to the pandemic, many never returned…

 

[GiveMeTheMusic]

Which is EXACTLY my point. Thank you for your support.

The attendance barely budged down by a single percentage point or two in 2008 and TDA panicked like crazy. They rolled out Free Birthday Tickets! for 2009, and let the people apply their free ticket as a down payment for a cheap AP.

The rest is the sad history of the Annual Pass Program of the 2010's. Will TDA manage their panic better this time?

View attachment 659215

This implies TDA is panicking about the "recession" right now, but that would only be the case if they exclusively consume Fox News and aren't looking at their own parks each day.

You're also oversimplifying what happened in 2008. The recession didn't hit until Q3 2008, and Disneyland didn't really react until Q4. Big entertainment cuts weren't even really felt until Q1 2009, as Parade of Dreams ended normally in November to make way for ACF, and just didn't come back in January. By then, the birthday promo was in effect, Celebrate street party was the park's "parade", and the promo worked like gangbusters. Not much time for attendance to decrease before the promo was in place.

 

[Disstevefan1]

That's exactly the problem and we are just speculating how Disney will react.

Rich people existed during any recession in history but it doesn't change the chance that Disney may have an attendance downturn.

The month GE opened they cut staff like crazy and had to bring in the 100 dollar parkhopper ticket promotion shortly after.

Instead of talking about what is or isn't a recession we should understand people have less spending money and discuss how Disney will react.

This thread is specifically about recession, but yes I remember when the failed GE opened and no one showed up.

So If “the recession” causes a downturn in downturn in guest’s spending at the parks (notice I did not say attendance) then yes, I am guessing they will have to do something.

And yes, everything in California outside the parks is already more expensive, it would make sense any downturn in spending at the parks would show up there first and hopefully Disney does something.

 

[MisterPenguin]

It's pretty straight forward. Per Google and the Oxford Dictionary, the definition of a recession is at least two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. We've already had two now, we're working on the third currently.

re·ces·sion
/rəˈseSH(ə)n/
noun

1. a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.
   
   

Who is “they?” We’ve got a few groups of people that like to change definitions.

"generally"

There's no problem with the dictionary definition. It's a problem with people's reading comprehension or their desire to blind themselves to the caveats right there in the definition because they want to score ideological points.

Opinion | Recession: What Does It Mean?

Why we won’t — and shouldn’t — declare one now.

www.nytimes.com

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Wells Fargo analysts have stated the "wheels have come off" Disney's faltering stock due partly to lower theme park revenues.

The wheels have come off Disney's stock because they begged and pleaded to be treated like a streaming company so now they're treated like a streaming company, with all that comes with it. Netflix sucking has caused mass skepticism on whether Disney can hit their subscriber projections.

Parks are an afterthought.

 

[Disney Irish]

The wheels have come off Disney's stock because they begged and pleaded to be treated like a streaming company so now they're treated like a streaming company, with all that comes with it. Netflix sucking has caused mass skepticism on whether Disney can hit their subscriber projections.

Parks are an afterthought.

Many analysts are valuating DIS currently based on P/E, the run up and subsequent drop prior was all the streaming valuation.

 

[MisterPenguin]

3Q results and call (in 40 minutes) here...

Disney’s Q3 FY22 Earnings Results Webcast

The Walt Disney Company will discuss fiscal third quarter 2022 financial results via a live audio webcast beginning at 4:30 p.m. ET / 1:30 p.m. PT on Wednesday, August 10, 2022. https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/disneys-q3-fy22-earnings-results-webcast/

forums.wdwmagic.com

 

[TP2000]

The wheels have come off Disney's stock because they begged and pleaded to be treated like a streaming company so now they're treated like a streaming company, with all that comes with it. Netflix sucking has caused mass skepticism on whether Disney can hit their subscriber projections.

Agreed. At least I agree as much as I can wrap my Capitalist brain around the whole streaming model for movie studios, because I just don't see how it makes money long-term. Especially when people still flood American movie theaters at full-fare tickets when there is a movie they actually want to pay to see.

Layer on to that general lack of sense around streaming's business model the fact that Burbank spends huge amounts of money to produce movies that don't sell enough tickets and/or go to streaming for free, and I'm just baffled by it. They spent $375 Million to produce Lightyear and Turning Red combined, and $250 Million to produce Thor. How is that at all sustainable for streaming?

Parks are an afterthought.

The Parks (and the Cruise Line) are an afterthought in Burbank, that's always been the case. But they are also a steady source of cash flow quarter after quarter. It's just this golden goose down in Anaheim and way out in Orlando that lays golden eggs for Burbank.

But what happens when the goose catches a cold is when things get interesting!

 

[CaptainAmerica]

The Parks (and the Cruise Line) are an afterthought in Burbank, that's always been the case. But they are also a steady source of cash flow quarter after quarter. It's just this golden goose down in Anaheim and way out in Orlando that lays golden eggs for Burbank.

I meant more New York.