Disney World Pricing, No Mulan Theatrical Release?

Tom P.

Tom P.

Well-Known Member
So the portion of the article that is focused on WDW is pretty much just stating one analyst's opinions. Still I found it interesting that he says Disney's current financial models project operating at only 25% capacity for the remainder of 2020, only 50% capacity throughout 2021, and 75% capacity throughout 2022. In other words, he is saying Disney does not envision returning to normal operations until 2023 at the earliest.

Now, clearly, no one at this point knows what's really going to happen with COVID-19 over the long-term. But I find it difficult to believe that Disney would continue operating with limited capacity for more than 2.5 years. If an effective vaccine is going to be found, it is almost certainly going to be found quicker than that. All of the projections from experts, from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic, assume that if a vaccine is possible it will come in 2 years or less. And if a vaccine cannot be found, there is going to come a point at which society decides, rightly or wrongly, that normal life has to go on.

What does everyone think? Is Disney seriously considering limited capacity until at least 2023? Or is that just an analyst pulling things out of thin air?
 
Mouse Trap

Mouse Trap

Well-Known Member
doctornick said:
Exactly this. If Mulan got pushed out of theaters and onto digital - which BTW I think is still very unlikely, they’ll just delay the release date again if they have to - the theaters won’t flip out unless that is seen as a new business model. The backlash against Universal wasn’t about Trolls but their alleged bold new future plans of simultaneous online and theater releases.

Furthermore, the tent poles from Disney aren’t as conducive to at home streaming - Disney makes a lot from families buying multiple tickets as well as people doing repeat viewings while the movie is in theaters. Streaming at home undercuts that revenue. It’s one thing for Netflix to produce Oscar bait films that are mostly viewed online (with limited theatrical release) because those aren’t going to make huge amounts even if they were wide theatrical releases. It’s entirely another thing for your standard Disney/Pixar/Marvel/Star Wars tentpole that is expected to make hundreds of millions if not over a billion st the box office
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This guy/gal gets it.
 
twilight mitsuk

twilight mitsuk

Well-Known Member
Mouse Trap said:
1. There is no "serious" concern at Disney re: people's perception of China and how it will impact Mulan. Obviously there is an impact, but release date will not be changed because of politics with China.

2. Mulan's fate will be determined by Los Angeles and NYC's soon to be announced plan on theater reopening, NOT any political issues. If Los Angeles or NYC is taken out of play then the New Mutant's release date is up for grabs, but alternatives will certainly be weighed. As the article stated there are definitely marketing issues as well.

Remember... an analyst also said WDW will not be opening until 2021. Remember this oh so popular article that made it's way across the internet like wildfire?

www.barrons.com

Disney Parks Might Not Reopen Until 2021. Its Stock Is Falling.

UBS analyst John Hodulik downgraded Disney stock to Neutral from Buy and lowered his price target on the shares to $114 from $162. Credit Suisse analyst Doug Mitchelson also downgraded the stock to Neutral from Outperform on Monday.
www.barrons.com www.barrons.com

Also regarding the future of VOD: Trolls was a hit as an event movie. Scoob has not had it's numbers released yet and there's reason to believe it was very lackluster. I could very well be entirely be wrong on Scoob, but until there is proof VOD can rake in piles of cash weekend after weekend we won't see major films released on VOD regularly.
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same reason why shen yun season was cancelled
 
beertiki

beertiki

Well-Known Member
twilight mitsuk said:
streaming services dont offer things like snack bars, premium seating upgrades, 3d etc
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I only go to the movies if it is a movie that I do not want to hear and see spoilers for. We have at least 4 streaming services. I never really like going to the moves, too much talking, too many phones, and way too many commercials and previews. If the movie is going scheduled to start at 7:00, I am ok with 10 minutes of previews/ commercials. Last movie I saw, it was 30 minutes of them.

At home is better, lots of cheap beer, better food, less salty popcorn, nice couch, and a pause button if I need to use the bathroom.
 
Z

zulemara

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Tom P. said:
So the portion of the article that is focused on WDW is pretty much just stating one analyst's opinions. Still I found it interesting that he says Disney's current financial models project operating at only 25% capacity for the remainder of 2020, only 50% capacity throughout 2021, and 75% capacity throughout 2022. In other words, he is saying Disney does not envision returning to normal operations until 2023 at the earliest.

Now, clearly, no one at this point knows what's really going to happen with COVID-19 over the long-term. But I find it difficult to believe that Disney would continue operating with limited capacity for more than 2.5 years. If an effective vaccine is going to be found, it is almost certainly going to be found quicker than that. All of the projections from experts, from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic, assume that if a vaccine is possible it will come in 2 years or less. And if a vaccine cannot be found, there is going to come a point at which society decides, rightly or wrongly, that normal life has to go on.

What does everyone think? Is Disney seriously considering limited capacity until at least 2023? Or is that just an analyst pulling things out of thin air?
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No, just like the last ridiculous analyst opinion that they wouldn't open until next year, this is bunk. What these analysts seem to miss are market forces. IF it is true that Universal opening pushed Disney, then it is all the more reason the analyst is wrong and proves that there are competitive market forces at work that will play an equal factor to just health based outlooks and decisions. I personally think that's what's going to drive this.
 
Giss Neric

Giss Neric

Well-Known Member
Damn, Mulan will be the real legit first Disney live action that I think would be excellent based on the trailers I have been seeing but it looks like it will be the least performing while the other live actions grosses 1 billion.
 
NelleBelle

NelleBelle

Well-Known Member
Tom P. said:
So the portion of the article that is focused on WDW is pretty much just stating one analyst's opinions. Still I found it interesting that he says Disney's current financial models project operating at only 25% capacity for the remainder of 2020, only 50% capacity throughout 2021, and 75% capacity throughout 2022. In other words, he is saying Disney does not envision returning to normal operations until 2023 at the earliest.

Now, clearly, no one at this point knows what's really going to happen with COVID-19 over the long-term. But I find it difficult to believe that Disney would continue operating with limited capacity for more than 2.5 years. If an effective vaccine is going to be found, it is almost certainly going to be found quicker than that. All of the projections from experts, from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic, assume that if a vaccine is possible it will come in 2 years or less. And if a vaccine cannot be found, there is going to come a point at which society decides, rightly or wrongly, that normal life has to go on.

What does everyone think? Is Disney seriously considering limited capacity until at least 2023? Or is that just an analyst pulling things out of thin air?
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I can't see Disney operating at limited capacity for that duration. I could see the parks' numbers being down for that time frame due to a huge recession and people not being able to afford to go for a while. We've been due for a big recession for a while and unfortunately, this virus was the catalyst.
 
ToTBellHop

ToTBellHop

Well-Known Member
NelleBelle said:
I can't see Disney operating at limited capacity for that duration. I could see the parks' numbers being down for that time frame due to a huge recession and people not being able to afford to go for a while. We've been due for a big recession for a while and unfortunately, this virus was the catalyst.
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It’s laughable to suggest a capacity RESTRICTION through 2022. Perhaps actual attendance will remain down due to a recession, as you say. During the 2008-9 recession, for comparison, WDW attendance plummeted a full 1% (one percent) and rebounded by 2011. After 9/11, it fell 5%. To suggest it will still be down 25% in 2022 is just silly.
 
the.dreamfinder

the.dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
MansionButler84 said:
It’s laughable to suggest a capacity RESTRICTION through 2022. Perhaps actual attendance will remain down due to a recession, as you say. During the 2008-9 recession, for comparison, WDW attendance plummeted a full 1% (one percent) and rebounded by 2011. After 9/11, it fell 5%. To suggest it will still be down 25% in 2022 is just silly.
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Profits and their all important per guest revenue spending mean more than attendance drops that will never be that bad.
 

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