jloucks
Well-Known Member
I like the sound of "very low attendance". Sounds like a great time to book my first trip in years. I care far less about SWGE than I do crowds, so you are selling it pretty darn well. Assuming "very low" is accurate.
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
Disney World Low Attendance Paradox
- Thread starter monothingie
- Start date
I like the sound of "very low attendance". Sounds like a great time to book my first trip in years. I care far less about SWGE than I do crowds, so you are selling it pretty darn well. Assuming "very low" is accurate.
bUU
Well-Known Member
Objective crowd trackers have indicated a noticeable slowness. Our objective TAs have warned that there is considerable slowness in booking for the fall. Our trusted insiders have commented that there is growing concern at the corporate level. Our CM sources have indicated staffing cuts and rollbacks.
To say that this is all the result of people with an axe to grind is just plain silly. Your comments do not reflect the reality of the situation unfolding.
They’ll promote him.
BoarderPhreak
Well-Known Member
Just what I've noticed; attendance is down on both coasts like @marni1971 said. You can see it in the pictures posted everywhere; some particularly stand out. Just a few days ago, WDW looked like a ghost town. Though I attributed that to post-July 4th vacation. What's curious is that even with SWGE open, Disneyland is at low attendance. Something's definitely up (or down, as the case may be).
Wonder if Disney finally priced themselves into a hole...
Wonder if Disney finally priced themselves into a hole...
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Wonder if Disney finally priced themselves into a hole...
Even if high prices were the #1 concern of customers, Disney is far too proud to simply lower them across the board.
That would be a sign of admitting defeat, and every think piece, opinion column and 3rd rate financial analyst would be going on about how "Disney killed its business" and asking questions the Bobs have no interest in answering (at least on camera). Universal would also be laughing at them while continuing to charge $175/day to visit both Harry Potter lands.
So now they're in a position where they either lower prices to bring back the crowds, but risk scrutiny, or keep them relatively flat and hope that the crowds come back or at least stay somewhat high.
And it's all their fault for thinking that they could get away with constantly raising prices forever. They have no one to blame but themselves.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
Just what I've noticed; attendance is down on both coasts like @marni1971 said. You can see it in the pictures posted everywhere; some particularly stand out. Just a few days ago, WDW looked like a ghost town. Though I attributed that to post-July 4th vacation. What's curious is that even with SWGE open, Disneyland is at low attendance. Something's definitely up (or down, as the case may be).
Wonder if Disney finally priced themselves into a hole...
Time will tell. My guesses are:
1. There will be less APs sold and/or renewed due to the sharp overnight 25% increase in price
2. Many folks are waiting for Rise of the Resistance to open before they visit.
3. Many folks may be waiting for the WDW 50th celebration to start before they visit.
4. There my be another sharp ticket price increase for all tickets after Rise of the Resistance opens.
John park hopper
Well-Known Member
Raineman
Well-Known Member
Even if this is indeed the starting point of a decline in attendance due to the affordability factor for some guests, I don't think we will see an immediate knee-jerk reaction from Disney in the form of lowered guest costs across the board. If the attendance trend we are seeing now is based on cost vs value for park guests, it would most likely be a repeating issue going forward, ie attendance is low, Disney drops prices and some/all guests start to return to the parks; then once attendance reaches pre-price drop levels and Disney decides "hey, let's jack the prices up again!", the guests who left before because of cost will leave again, and most likely for good. Once the costs of a Disney resort vacation go down, they could never be able to come back up without major consequences, IMO.
Disney’s response will probably be a tepid minor discount or promotion. They can’t do a standard fall discount because doing so means there is a problem. Doing this will not be enough to attract people concerned the cost of visiting, and probably not do much to help the situation developing.
cosmicgirl
Well-Known Member
I never said their intent is to thin the crowds and I'm certainly not trying to justify price increases. I believe they're trying to maximize profit, nothing more, nothing less. If they can get more $ despite lower attendance then so be it. Although I'm sure they'd find ways to target more price-sensitive markets to fill up the hole and get even more $.
The delicate art of revenue management is finding the right balance between:
1. estimating demand at different price levels;
2. maximizing what people are willing to pay; and
3. still getting a full park/plane/hotel.
In Disney's case I believe they may have overstimated 1 and 2 with both admission and resort prices, causing them to struggle to find the right balance with 3. Furthermore, we're only seeing reports of decreased attendance but we don't know what the effects on the bottom line are. Is revenue down? Possibly, but none of us can make that call. Despite missing the mark with point 3 they may still be doing better financially, though not as well as they could be doing because the parks and resorts aren't full.
The promotions you mentioned are an example of market segmentation: some people will book at rack rate and never look back (group A), some will book at rack rate but will adjust their plans to get a discount (group B), and others will only book if there's a discount (group C). Similarly they offer different promotions to different countries.
I think they're currently testing how far they can go with groups A and B, and at which point group C will crack and buy anyway, or walk off. Except they may have overdone it this time and too many of group C may have walked off. If revenue is truly down significantly they'll find ways to lure them back in without jeopardizing what A and B have committed to spend. It wouldn't be the first time.
This is exactly what they did with the holiday parties in 2017: to my knowledge this was the first and only year that you could buy holiday party tickets 30-40% off in the UK with certain agencies. They were released fairly late, right before the party season started if I'm not mistaken, when many of the rack raters would've already bought their tickets full price. They were simply maximizing profit by targeting market segments differently because they weren't filling up the park at full price. And those who paid $100+ had no idea that we walked into the same party for €60. If we had to pay $100 we would've skipped it, so by targeting us they increased their overall profit.
Right now many appear to be in groups B and C for the Fall season and it's turning into a staring contest. Guests are used to Disney buckling first but for some reason they're not doing so as of yet. We'll have to wait and see what happens when the opening of Rise is announced.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
They're currently selling 5 days for the price of 2 until the end of the month, and the offer has already been extended once.
I could see them extending it again.
Goofyernmost
Well-Known Member
I just purchase a Buy 2 get 3 free for Universal. For someone that wants to go there for 5 days that is quite the discount. I was only planning on 2 days but since the other 3 were free... why not!
JIMINYCR
Well-Known Member
Low attendance... wow. All weve been hearing is how oppressive the crowds have been, how long the lines are, how the standby times are over a hundred minutes long, how difficult it is to enjoy a Disney event from oversell of tickets... and now its a ghost town? From the beginning we were being told that people were holding back from booking for 2 years in anticipation of SW completion, Tron completion, SW hotel build, the 50th anniversary build up... and now that the numbers have seemingly shown a decrease... its a crisis and Disney is on its way out??
Disney could only profit from lower attendance if the customers that are going spend more money than the simple price increase alone. The $20 profit from the price hike of a ticket for one customer is not as profitable as an additional customer paying for admission, resort, food, merch, etc.
Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
This too shall pass. Maybe attendance is down at DL and WDW. The internet and YouTube blows up and spreads the fake news about the low attendance, then folks rush to DL and WDW to take advantage of the low crowds, and the parks are mobbed as usual..
Disney Always Wins.
Disney Always Wins.