Disney theme parks facing 'lost year' of revenue in 2021, analysts predict

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
To understand what Disney said when they stated the parks would be accretive to profits, one would have to know what that means. You and many others know it does not mean the parks are actually profitable. It means they cover their variable costs but not necessarily the fixed costs. Therefore , the parks could lose well over 1 billion in the quarter and still be accretive to overall profits.
And i think that’s the point...in layman’s terms: they’re in a holding pattern.

Which makes complete sense given the global situation.

What doesn’t makes sense are postsrs declaring “the worst is over”...which is driven by personal boredom and a selfish desire to return to parks and feel like everyone else is down with it...note an accurate analysis of travel and economic matters.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
And i think that’s the point...in layman’s terms: they’re in a holding pattern.

Which makes complete sense given the global situation.

What doesn’t makes sense are postsrs declaring “the worst is over”...which is driven by personal boredom and a selfish desire to return to parks and feel like everyone else is down with it...note an accurate analysis of travel and economic matters.
I do think the worst is over. Disney should be very happy that they have all those DVC rooms. I have to pay for my points and use them or lose them. In any case all of the rooms provide a profit to Disney and guests to the parks. WDW will be profitable in the next physical year starting in October. The vaccine should be out in large quantities in months and people will slowly start vacationing in Spring. The big thing to understand is that local and state governments have been requiring their employees yo work from home. As a result my friends who still work for the State of NJ have used none of their vacation time and are allowed to carry over more that the normal 1 year of time to 2021 but they will have to use it. They have also saved money by not having to commute. They will be vacationing in 2021 and many I know will visit WDW and Universal.
 

Schweino

Well-Known Member
I do think the worst is over. Disney should be very happy that they have all those DVC rooms. I have to pay for my points and use them or lose them. In any case all of the rooms provide a profit to Disney and guests to the parks. WDW will be profitable in the next physical year starting in October. The vaccine should be out in large quantities in months and people will slowly start vacationing in Spring. The big thing to understand is that local and state governments have been requiring their employees yo work from home. As a result my friends who still work for the State of NJ have used none of their vacation time and are allowed to carry over more that the normal 1 year of time to 2021 but they will have to use it. They have also saved money by not having to commute. They will be vacationing in 2021 and many I know will visit WDW and Universal.
Friendly disagreement here. With no movie releases in theaters and leashing your parks, I have no idea how you can be profitable. Just because people are going to want to travel (which seems to be your only analysis) that won't make WDW magically increase their current capacity restrictions. Q1/2 are most likely washes and the only goal is to slow the bleed. Q3 profit maybe.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I do think the worst is over. Disney should be very happy that they have all those DVC rooms. I have to pay for my points and use them or lose them. In any case all of the rooms provide a profit to Disney and guests to the parks. WDW will be profitable in the next physical year starting in October. The vaccine should be out in large quantities in months and people will slowly start vacationing in Spring. The big thing to understand is that local and state governments have been requiring their employees yo work from home. As a result my friends who still work for the State of NJ have used none of their vacation time and are allowed to carry over more that the normal 1 year of time to 2021 but they will have to use it. They have also saved money by not having to commute. They will be vacationing in 2021 and many I know will visit WDW and Universal.
NJ state employees don’t tend to be “reflective” of the average vacation times and means 😂...at least none of the hundreds I know...

But anyway...DVC is important for just that reason...guaranteed traffic.

But we tend to forget the realities on Disney forums:
DVC is roughly 30% of the on property rooms at wdw...the other 70% are severely overpriced rack rooms and they have to sell. And beyond that: the majority come from the 500 hotel mess past 535/192....and that is a gigantic issue.

DVC drives almost no traffic to Anaheim or Paris as well.

DVC was meant to be a COMPONENT of the total -not the whole. And it will never be more than that.

Now...Iger managed to bamboozle the general public in the housing crash...the question is: can that happen again?

The loss of money in this is already massive to the customer base. They just don’t know it yet because the two dumbed down indicators - stock markets and real estate - haven’t been hit. But throwing trillions into stocks at banks behest doesn’t fundamentally alter you need tens of millions to pay to show in Orlando alone.
 
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JIMINYCR

Well-Known Member
NJ state employees don’t tend to be “reflective” of the average vacation times and means 😂...at least none of the hundreds I know...

But anyway...DVC is important for just that reason...guaranteed traffic.

But we tend to forget the realities on Disney forums:
DVC is roughly 30% of the on property rooms at wdw...the other 70% are severely overpriced rack rooms and they have to sell. And beyond that: the majority come from the 500 hotel mess past 535/192....and that is a gigantic issue.

DVC drives almost no traffic to Anaheim or Paris as well.

DVC was meant to be a COMPONENT of the total -not the whole. And it will never be more than that.

Now...Iger managed to bamboozle the general public in the housing crash...the question is: can that happen again.

The loss of money in this is already massive to the customer base. They just don’t know it yet because the two dumbed down indicators - stock markets and real estate - haven’t been hit. But throwing trillions into stocks at banks behest doesn’t fundamentally alter you need tens of millions to pay to show in Orlando alone.

The plan for WDW DVC growth always was to hook guests into the monthly payments with the enticement of having a secured Disney vacation. That money coming in ensures value to them for minimal effort on their part after the build. As you say.. never was counted on as being the money source for running their company but it was guaranteed consistent revenue they can count on. Although I never bought into it ( but other family members have) it was a smart move on Disneys part.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
The plan for WDW DVC growth always was to hook guests into the monthly payments with the enticement of having a secured Disney vacation. That money coming in ensures value to them for minimal effort on their part after the build. As you say.. never was counted on as being the money source for running their company but it was guaranteed consistent revenue they can count on. Although I never bought into it ( but other family members have) it was a smart move on Disneys part.
It was smart when the price offered longterm real savings to the buyer.

We crossed that threshold long ago
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
Friendly disagreement here. With no movie releases in theaters and leashing your parks, I have no idea how you can be profitable. Just because people are going to want to travel (which seems to be your only analysis) that won't make WDW magically increase their current capacity restrictions. Q1/2 are most likely washes and the only goal is to slow the bleed. Q3 profit maybe.
They were profitable in a quarter with zero US park operations and did almost $12B in revenue.

Profit is already here. The build back up to profit of old is the only question, but that will happen of course in time.

The Disney Parks and overall Disney brand are intact. No reason they shouldn’t be. A vaccine ends this quickly and many are coming. In a year, Covid will be in our rear view mirror and the Travel industry will flourish again. Other industries are already recovering. A tough 12-18 months just gives good businesses like Disney a chance to get even better. This is nothing systemic or long term. It’s the virus and nothing else.

No theaters might be a blessing for Disney+ and testing alternate channels for content. Theaters will be back, but Mulan has already shown it can do well without theaters. The stock was up on the success of Mulan to Disney+. That’s the future for Disney anyway.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
They were profitable in a quarter with zero US park operations and did almost $12B in revenue.

Profit is already here. The build back up to profit of old is the only question, but that will happen of course in time.

The Disney Parks and overall Disney brand are intact. No reason they shouldn’t be. A vaccine ends this quickly and many are coming. In a year, Covid will be in our rear view mirror and the Travel industry will flourish again. Other industries are already recovering. A tough 12-18 months just gives good businesses like Disney a chance to get even better. This is nothing systemic or long term. It’s the virus and nothing else.

No theaters might be a blessing for Disney+ and testing alternate channels for content. Theaters will be back, but Mulan has already shown it can do well without theaters. The stock was up on the success of Mulan to Disney+. That’s the future for Disney anyway.
“...we can’t penetrate those shields, Captain”
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Right! I teased this with my wife and once we saw the cost holy cow..you would need to be a Disney enthusiast to pay that price. Like when is anyone at Disney going to say "Ok this got ridiculous"
It’s been 15 years

I remember calculating what the “real cost” of studio was in January (Low season) and it was around $145 walk away...

The current asking price is just about exactly 3x what I paid.

There’s just no way to say that the deal is close to the same
 

"El Gran Magnifico"

Mr Flibble is Very Cross.
Premium Member
A vaccine ends this quickly

Ends it quicker. Once the vaccine comes out there'll be a whole 'nother battle. About people accepting and adopting the vaccine. I'm all for a vaccine. I will "probably" opt for the vaccine. I say probably because we don't know what it is yet, what science is behind it, and what side-effects it may generate. I though am firmly in the camp, that I won't be one of the first.

the Travel industry will flourish again

Depends. Many facets to the industry. If you're saying people will travel again, I wholeheartedly agree. That the industry will flourish is a whole 'nother ballgame.

I agree that Leisure Travel will come back with a vengeance. Business/Corporate travel, along with Meeting and Incentives. Well, those are going to hurt for a long while. This virus is causing a lot of changes to many industries (including travel), some changes that will become permanent.

The distribution channel is also going to be heavily impacted. The entire agency landscape is going to be different. The overrides, Co-Op money, commission structures will all be re-defined.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Ends it quicker. Once the vaccine comes out there'll be a whole 'nother battle. About people accepting and adopting the vaccine. I'm all for a vaccine. I will "probably" opt for the vaccine. I say probably because we don't know what it is yet, what science is behind it, and what side-effects it may generate. I though am firmly in the camp, that I won't be one of the first.



Depends. Many facets to the industry. If you're saying people will travel again, I wholeheartedly agree. That the industry will flourish is a whole 'nother ballgame.

I agree that Leisure Travel will come back with a vengeance. Business/Corporate travel, along with Meeting and Incentives. Well, those are going to hurt for a long while. This virus is causing a lot of changes to many industries (including travel), some changes that will become permanent.

The distribution channel is also going to be heavily impacted. The entire agency landscape is going to be different. The overrides, Co-Op money, commission structures will all be re-defined.
No use...

All that matters is that
1. Disney world is open
2. Everything about life must be centered around #1
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
Ends it quicker. Once the vaccine comes out there'll be a whole 'nother battle. About people accepting and adopting the vaccine. I'm all for a vaccine. I will "probably" opt for the vaccine. I say probably because we don't know what it is yet, what science is behind it, and what side-effects it may generate. I though am firmly in the camp, that I won't be one of the first.



Depends. Many facets to the industry. If you're saying people will travel again, I wholeheartedly agree. That the industry will flourish is a whole 'nother ballgame.

I agree that Leisure Travel will come back with a vengeance. Business/Corporate travel, along with Meeting and Incentives. Well, those are going to hurt for a long while. This virus is causing a lot of changes to many industries (including travel), some changes that will become permanent.

The distribution channel is also going to be heavily impacted. The entire agency landscape is going to be different. The overrides, Co-Op money, commission structures will all be re-defined.
Totally disagree. Even without a vaccine at all, people are moving on in so many ways. We're seeing it now. A vaccine ends this because it takes Armageddon off the table completely.

I was just on a 100% full flight today with 4 people being bumped for overfilled. The airport in both Orlando and my final destination were packed. People are moving on...with masks, for now.

The difference between now and 3 months ago is night and day. Numbers are trending in the right direction and a vaccine just accelerates what's already happening.

Travel will be last, but signs are there it's starting to come back. Even at Disney. I was there in July and the last 10 days and it's building for sure.
 

"El Gran Magnifico"

Mr Flibble is Very Cross.
Premium Member
Totally disagree. Even without a vaccine at all, people are moving on in so many ways. We're seeing it now. A vaccine ends this because it takes Armageddon off the table completely.

I was just on a 100% full flight today with 4 people being bumped for overfilled. The airport in both Orlando and my final destination were packed. People are moving on...with masks, for now.

The difference between now and 3 months ago is night and day. Numbers are trending in the right direction and a vaccine just accelerates what's already happening.

Travel will be last, but signs are there it's starting to come back. Even at Disney. I was there in July and the last 10 days and it's building for sure.

People traveling and the industry as a whole are two different things. A vaccine makes this better. Maybe significantly. But it doesn't take us back to pre-pandemic levels. There is no "V" here. There is going to be a behavioral shift. The question is what is the impact.

FWIW - I'm not worried about Disney's solvency. But there is no "magic" with this recovery.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
People traveling and the industry as a whole are two different things. A vaccine makes this better. Maybe significantly. But it doesn't take us back to pre-pandemic levels. There is no "V" here. There is going to be a behavioral shift. The question is what is the impact.

FWIW - I'm not worried about Disney's solvency. But there is no "magic" with this recovery.
Objectively, travel is improving even if you only believe it's because it was very dire only 3-4 months ago. I think people are going to be surprised how quickly it bounces...it already has. Have you priced plane tickets? I just got off a light I purchased in April for $50. The same flight is now $300.

Pre-pandemic? Hell no. But improvement is improvement. Many were saying multi-year recession and the end of a "couple" of airlines, cruise companies, and even some people who didn't know what they were talking about, Disney.

Based on the marked improvement of the last few months, I don't see a protracted (multi-year) recovery scenario and certainly Armageddon is off the table. Markets have essentially said the virus is over because the vaccine is on the horizon in the near term. Certainly, the media is going to milk every possible dooms day scenario, but it's just not reality.
 

"El Gran Magnifico"

Mr Flibble is Very Cross.
Premium Member
Objectively, travel is improving because it was very dire only 3-4 months ago for the industry. I think people are going to be surprised how quickly it bounces...it alreay has. Have you priced plane tickets? I just got off a light I purchased in April for $50. The same flight is now $300.

Have you tried to book a cruise? The travel industry is not just lift, nor is it just Disney. Again, not disputing that people want to travel. Not saying Leisure Travel won't bounce back in a significant way. Your assessment about the industry as a whole is flat out wrong.

Markets have essentially said the virus is over because the vaccine is on the horizon in the near term.

Markets have said whatever Jerome's "magical printing machine" has told them to say. Recently I've seen a few articles on Minsky. I think the up is inflated (you see the illogical push on Tech two weeks ago? And the pull back last? Nobody really knows.) and Armageddon is an overplayed hand. Truth will be somewhere in the middle. Market is not a projection of now, it's a projection of what has yet to be - based on perception. And because there is uncertainty, the market over inflates, and exacerbates the loss.

I know you're a Wharton guy. But numbers don't always equate to sentiment. In these types of times things move irrationally.
 
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thomas998

Well-Known Member
If they continue to close the MK at 6:00 PM they will have more problems. If they are going to close at 6:00 then they need to reduce the ticket and resort prices substantially.

My extended family of 3 generations and 3 households cancelled in Sept because of the reduced park hours and if these hours are not extended we will not be going in 2021.

We love Disney but we require value to match the cost. NO thanks for now.
Bingo. Although it goes beyond just the hours, if they continue to have less attractions and entertainment then it's still a no go even if the hours increase. Right now they seem to be doing what McDonalds has done, kept the same prices or even raised them while cutting back on the product the customer is getting. You can't do both and expect people to bend over happily ever after. Worst still is they aren't just cutting hours or entertainment, they are cutting both while maintaining the same price... Never going to work, our plan was going back next Fall when things were normal, but if they don't go back to normal by then we'll find something else to do for a Fall break and if we enjoy it too much then the odds are that will become our new annual Fall break and Disney can become a memory.
 

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