Disney theme parks facing 'lost year' of revenue in 2021, analysts predict

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
Advertisement

The OC Register had the original story. Quote the source, not some other news site's regurgitation of it, else this happens...

 

"El Scorpion"

Premium Member
In the Parks
No
It's a clickbait story.

"Analysts Predict" tells you all you need to know. - Who are the analysts proclaiming the "lost year"? And what data are relying on to make said prediction? All I see are some "Deutsche Bank Analysts" referenced. What's their track record?

“We think there’s upside to our forecast if an effective COVID vaccine becomes widely available during the next six months,” according to the analysts report.

That pretty much covers the gist of the article. Disney is in trouble - unless of course there is a vaccine. In which case we'll adjust our prediction. It's going to take a bit for Disney to get back to pre-pandemic levels? No kidding, you don't say. (Not taking issue with the OP - just the ridiculousness of the analysts.)

A lot of people make "predictions". Some claim to have a great success rate in their predictions - which is usually never the case.

Anybody on this board could have authored that article with just as much credibility.
 

Jim S

Well-Known Member
If they continue to close the MK at 6:00 PM they will have more problems. If they are going to close at 6:00 then they need to reduce the ticket and resort prices substantially.

My extended family of 3 generations and 3 households cancelled in Sept because of the reduced park hours and if these hours are not extended we will not be going in 2021.

We love Disney but we require value to match the cost. NO thanks for now.
 

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
It's a clickbait story.

"Analysts Predict" tells you all you need to know. - Who are the analysts proclaiming the "lost year"? And what data are relying on to make said prediction? All I see are some "Deutsche Bank Analysts" referenced. What's their track record?

“We think there’s upside to our forecast if an effective COVID vaccine becomes widely available during the next six months,” according to the analysts report.

That pretty much covers the gist of the article. Disney is in trouble - unless of course there is a vaccine. In which case we'll adjust our prediction. It's going to take a bit for Disney to get back to pre-pandemic levels? No kidding, you don't say. (Not taking issue with the OP - just the ridiculousness of the analysts.)

A lot of people make "predictions". Some claim to have a great success rate in their predictions - which is usually never the case.

Anybody on this board could have authored that article with just as much credibility.

And Deutsche Bank has been making headlines recently. But not the good kind.

Also, their analysts predict two bad years for Disney but upgrade their stock recommendations to 'buy'.

Unbelievable.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
And Deutsche Bank has been making headlines recently. But not the good kind.

Also, their analysts predict two bad years for Disney but upgrade their stock recommendations to 'buy'.

Unbelievable.

I was on a conference call with the financial analysts at my public company has as consultants today...

And the quotes that stood out (while I was probably looking at a rumor thread here 😎)...were:

1. “Lack of capital injection into the economy as a whole will cause “disruptions” in revenues in all sectors”
2. “For 2 years with a possibility of 5 or more”

Yeah...so buy up the stock...cause that’s now “protected”...
...but if you do actual work and receive pay for it...also known as a “job”...don’t go buy a new Hyundai. Risky.

As far as travel goes...history leans toward the downward arrow.
 

"El Scorpion"

Premium Member
In the Parks
No
And Deutsche Bank has been making headlines recently. But not the good kind.

Also, their analysts predict two bad years for Disney but upgrade their stock recommendations to 'buy'.

Unbelievable.

It’s a predictable cycle I’m surprised more haven’t caught onto

Analyst/Media paint doom and gloom > Investors sell > stock price driven down > Trading desk/those in the know buy > then magically new guidance issued because of some previously unknown or underrated factor that paints a rosey picture > Price goes up > investment bank/those in the know make $

It’s why buy the dip is such a successful strategy IF you know who/why/what caused the dip in the first place.

Works the same way if they intend to short.
 
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Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I'm my opinion I believe the worst is behind disney it will only get better. Demand is there and will continue to increase in park attendance. They also don't need the parks full to make a profit
For company shareholders to increase ROI, the parks need to be full, but that's not realistic now.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
I'm my opinion I believe the worst is behind disney it will only get better. Demand is there and will continue to increase in park attendance. They also don't need the parks full to make a profit

Respectfully...that’s what you want to think.

There’s no indication of demand being there...at all. It will return but not soon. Did you notice that they are prolonging closures of their hotels over the last few weeks?

It’s not like they wait and plan based on who is showing up next week....
All their operations are based on models that start on longterm forecasting. Typically 18 months is the foundation of that.

The “worst” in travel Is not over.
For company shareholders to increase ROI, the parks need to be full, but that's not realistic now.
Yep
 

JIMINYCR

Well-Known Member
When 9/11 happened and everyone was fearful of flying or going to any likely large crowded venue or event which could be targeted, it took an extended time for people to get back to where their comfort level rose and feeling of being safe, convinced them that normalcy had returned and start returning to Disney. Part of that was the actions of the govt instilling a sense of... We can keep you safe and we will bounce back. The lack of more strikes instilled courage. Still many people had financial losses which had them choosing between putting off a Disney trip or further extending credit card debt risking that theyd eventually be able to catch up on paying the debt away. Slowly but surely Disney returned as being the vacation spot to go to, with incentives being another temptation to draw guests in.
With the Covid situation, you have an unseen enemy which has struck everywhere, causing more uneasiness than the terrorist strikes which was not ongoing over time or made people fear a personal strike in their own homes. As loss of jobs and unemployment continues, with savings or any available money needing to be spent to afford normal day to day life, Disney isnt looking as a viable option for most. Especially when less is being offered all around. Disney isnt going to bounce back as quickly as before or without more damage being done. Its going to be a long time before we see a Disney thats comfortable with everything opening up, staff returning to full strength or a return to development and expansion.
 

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
Analysts are generally worthless and either insanely obvious with “predictions” or they keep saying a stock will fall until it drops 10-20% in a normal market correction.

Disney will make revenue in 2021...they are making it now.😂

Sure, it takes time to recover to record levels we saw before Covid, but no kidding?

Demand for Disney didn’t just end. People aren’t traveling. When people decide they want to travel again, the same old Disney demand will be back. Not a Disney issue...it’s a travel issue.

Disney World is not only making revenue, they are profit positive even with the current scaled down version. Relax. It’s not even 6 months in this thing.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
When 9/11 happened and everyone was fearful of flying or going to any likely large crowded venue or event which could be targeted, it took an extended time for people to get back to where their comfort level rose and feeling of being safe, convinced them that normalcy had returned and start returning to Disney. Part of that was the actions of the govt instilling a sense of... We can keep you safe and we will bounce back. The lack of more strikes instilled courage. Still many people had financial losses which had them choosing between putting off a Disney trip or further extending credit card debt risking that theyd eventually be able to catch up on paying the debt away. Slowly but surely Disney returned as being the vacation spot to go to, with incentives being another temptation to draw guests in.
With the Covid situation, you have an unseen enemy which has struck everywhere, causing more uneasiness than the terrorist strikes which was not ongoing over time or made people fear a personal strike in their own homes. As loss of jobs and unemployment continues, with savings or any available money needing to be spent to afford normal day to day life, Disney isnt looking as a viable option for most. Especially when less is being offered all around. Disney isnt going to bounce back as quickly as before or without more damage being done. Its going to be a long time before we see a Disney thats comfortable with everything opening up, staff returning to full strength or a return to development and expansion.
Excellent analysis of the history/current conditions 👍🏻
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Analysts are generally worthless and either insanely obvious with “predictions” or they keep saying a stock will fall until it drops 10-20% in a normal market correction.

Disney will make revenue in 2021...they are making it now.😂

Sure, it takes time to recover to record levels we saw before Covid, but no kidding?

Demand for Disney didn’t just end. People aren’t traveling. When people decide they want to travel again, the same old Disney demand will be back. Not a Disney issue...it’s a travel issue.

Disney World is not only making revenue, they are profit positive even with the current scaled down version. Relax. It’s not even 6 months in this thing.
From Parks?

Next year is dependent on what happens with the winter and the economics

2020 is shot
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Analysts are generally worthless and either insanely obvious with “predictions” or they keep saying a stock will fall until it drops 10-20% in a normal market correction.

Disney will make revenue in 2021...they are making it now.😂

Sure, it takes time to recover to record levels we saw before Covid, but no kidding?

Demand for Disney didn’t just end. People aren’t traveling. When people decide they want to travel again, the same old Disney demand will be back. Not a Disney issue...it’s a travel issue.

Disney World is not only making revenue, they are profit positive even with the current scaled down version. Relax. It’s not even 6 months in this thing.
Profit positive? The cast members recalled to work and many still furloughed , laid off perhaps won't believe this opinion.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disney told investors that park operations in Florida are accretive to operating profit.
I know you know this - but won’t admit it:

Disney will use whatever grey areas at their disposal to put the best possible face on things...such is life in money.

Why be honest when you can be “honest through favorable interpretation”...

There are weird, unique events these last 9 months or so...but also remember Disney stock was trending down starting in November (look it up)...so they were sliding a little prior.

But to Network’s point: all that federal money that may or may not have buoyed/backstopped them more or less is done on 9/30...congress is finished for now (they’ll wait it out).

So Q4 is going to be interesting. If this economic thing last through March...that will be 3 brutal quarters that Disney has frankly never seen.
 
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seascape

Well-Known Member
I know you know this - but won’t admit it:

Disney will use whatever grey areas at their disposal to put the best possible face on things...such is life in money.

Why be honest when you can be “honest through favorable interpretation”...

There are weird, unique events these last 9 months or so...but also remember Disney stock was trending down starting in November (look it up)...so they were sliding a little prior.

But to Network’s point: all that federal money that may or may not have buoyed/backstopped them more or less is done on 9/30...congress is finished for now (they’ll wait it out).

So Q4 is going to be interesting. If this economic thing last through March...that will be 3 brutal quarters that Disney has frankly never seen.
To understand what Disney said when they stated the parks would be accretive to profits, one would have to know what that means. You and many others know it does not mean the parks are actually profitable. It means they cover their variable costs but not necessarily the fixed costs. Therefore , the parks could lose well over 1 billion in the quarter and still be accretive to overall profits.
 
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