erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
Yea I'd be shocked if anything major comes out this summer as well. I'm not convinced anything major will come out this year at all.
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
Disney Postpones Releases of 'Mulan,' 'The New Mutants' and 'Antlers'
- Thread starter Darkprime
- Start date
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
Depending on where we are with CV will determine that but I’m a little more optimistic that we may see some scheduled movies in the fall and winter but there is zero chance any studio is moving a movie up if they already moved it.
Moka
Well-Known Member
I'm surprised how hard Disney is pushing to keep Mulan a theater release. Just a little. I mean by this point it obviously won't make as much as they initially had hoped. Out of all remakes I'm surprised this one. Like I wonder for which remakes they would have allowed this to happen as well (all the ones that have came out within the last few years.)
Mouse Trap
Well-Known Member
It's a $200M+ movie. Theatrical release is the only viable option.
They could go VOD, but it would probably still end up being a net loss. D+ would be a massive net loss.
Last edited:
doctornick
Well-Known Member
Mulan will be released in theaters. Maybe it will be in 2021 or 2022 but it will be released in that manner. There's too much financial downside to do anything else. And waiting doesn't matter that much as the costs are already sunk so the only reason to do something quickly is if they are desperate for cash flow (and Disney isn't)
Tony Perkis
Well-Known Member
All I want is Bill & Ted Face the Music. Anything else can go to their respective streaming services.
InnKpr
Well-Known Member
Selfishly, as someone very eager to see this movie, I hate this.
Realistically, looking at things from the studio's perspective and the greater benefit of the film, nothing makes more sense.
*sigh*
You gotta wonder at what point studios either consider PVOD for their major titles or give up on releasing movies in 2020 all together.
Mouse Trap
Well-Known Member
All signs indicate Mulan will be kicked to next year (maybe, maybe, maybe VOD) and Black Widow will try to be Disney's first major release. They don't want to delay Marvel anymore than absolutely necessary.
There are some spots available in late September/early-October, but keeping the Marvel slate in its current form is a pretty high priority right now. If Mulan needs to be the casualty to preserve a November release for Black Widow and Feb release for The Eternals I don't think there will be any hesitation, but we'll find out in the coming weeks.
Last edited:
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
I'm absolutely amazed this didn't happen a while ago. I get the studios want to play nice with the theaters. But the theaters can't boycott every major studio so just get your movie out if it's done. There will be a backlog of movies when theaters restart so the chains reslly don't have too much to worry about from that aspect.
Mouse Trap
Well-Known Member
It has nothing to do with studios playing nice with theaters. There is no evidence that supports a $200M+ movie like Mulan will be successful on VOD and that is the big issue.
Trolls made waves because it grossed over $100M VOD as an event film, but the subsequent releases basically bombed including Scoob which may have made as little as a paltry $15M. Disney doesn't want to gamble their $200M+ movie on VOD, but they may run out of options.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
I get it, but until you try, how can you get evidence. Any major Disney release will have a lot more weight behind it than Scoob. If you don't make the numbers with VOD, you do a theatrical release when you can. Even if it made bank on VOD, I would bet you could do a theatrical run anyway and make even more. I think you are selling the Disney audience short on this one.
Finally someone said it. This is the problem. No studio wants to go PVOD first. Warner wont do it with Tenet because of Nolan's support of theaters and Disney wont do it with Mulan because they want that China $$$$. However something like The New Mutants could make an interesting test run for PVOD. Disney+ should do what Universal's peacock is doing and have free and premium content on the service.
Premium content would be stuff like Mulan, Black Widow and The New Mutants at say $15 for a 48 hour rental. And $30-$45 (about the price of a 4k bluray) to own it. A bit expensive yes but I think you'd be surprised how many people would pay for it. Sure there will be piracy but they wont know how much piracy until they try. It might not be as bad as they think. People who pirate will always pirate you cant really change their minds. But for the other 95% if the content is accessible and priced reasonably they will pay for it. Look how many people already pay for Netflix at $20+ a month probably also pay for Disney+ and HBO Max.
Last edited:
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
I would pay $25 easy for a 48hr rental for a Marvel, star wars, AAA tent pole. That is what I would pay if I took my family to the theater as we really only do the $6.50 matinee. I really don’t think I'm the only one either. The funy thing is this. If just 37% of D+ subscribers paid $25, that would equal 500mil. But since they split profit with theaters, that 500mil really is about equal to a billion dollar box office.
Mouse Trap
Well-Known Member
$25 isn't enough. Numbers that have been floated are around $59.99 - $69.99 for the 48 hour rental model to break even for tentpole films.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
Then they aren't expecting many to do it. If Disney did their own rental VOD through D+, they keep 100% of the take. Not the average 50% ish split with theaters. If they tried $60 or $70 they would fail hard. 15mil rentals at $25 would break even for most tentpole films. Considering there are 55mil D+ subscribers alone, I don't think that's too far off. And I still think that you can re-release the movie into theaters and see another boost from people wanting the "big screen experience".
Mouse Trap
Well-Known Member
Don't shoot the messenger. Those are just the numbers being floated around at the studios.
Just don't expect VOD to become the new thing. It'll be utilized for films during theater closures, but once (whenever) the world becomes more normal it's back to theaters. We'll see a lot more smaller and indie films hit VOD then in the past for sure, but tentpoles remain on a traditional distribution model for quite some time.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
No worries, I am only talking about now, not VOD as a permanent thing. I'm just showing the how Disneys logic wouldn't make sense. Especially since theaters will likely open to just 1/4 capacity, at best 35%. The funny thing is I'm sure Disney would love to go all VOD, they are just afraid to try. Now would have been a perfect test to see how viable it would be.
“Over the last few months, it’s become clear that nothing can be set in stone when it comes to how we release films during this global health crisis, and today that means pausing our release plans for ‘Mulan’ as we assess how we can most effectively bring this film to audiences around the world,” a Disney spokesperson said."
"In addition to the global pandemic, theater closures and production shutdowns, the Burbank, CA made a slew of other calendar changes as well, more specifically, all Avatar and Star Wars movies have been pushed by a year, i.e. Avatar 2 (Dec. 17, 2021 is now Dec. 16, 2022), Avatar 3 (previously Dec. 22, 2023 is now Dec. 20, 2024), Avatar 4 (formerly Dec. 19, 2025 goes to Dec. 18, 2026), Avatar 5 (previously Dec. 27, 2027 goes to Dec. 22, 2028)."
deadline.com
"In addition to the global pandemic, theater closures and production shutdowns, the Burbank, CA made a slew of other calendar changes as well, more specifically, all Avatar and Star Wars movies have been pushed by a year, i.e. Avatar 2 (Dec. 17, 2021 is now Dec. 16, 2022), Avatar 3 (previously Dec. 22, 2023 is now Dec. 20, 2024), Avatar 4 (formerly Dec. 19, 2025 goes to Dec. 18, 2026), Avatar 5 (previously Dec. 27, 2027 goes to Dec. 22, 2028)."
‘Mulan’ Off The Calendar; Disney Also Delays ‘Avatar’ & ‘Star Wars’ Movies By One Year As Studio Adjusts To Pandemic
Disney is no longer releasing Mulan on Aug. 21 and is unsetting the movie for the time being. Oy, just when AMC was looking to turn the lights back on with a big movie in pockets of the country. I understand that the No. 1 industry leader at the global box office isn’t waiting to see where […]
deadline.com