If more changes are coming, I, for one, can't wait to see how they try to shove IP into whatever the new tiers would be called.
I'm guessing they're going to make even more blackouts and restrict APs on both coasts even more, unless you pay a large amount of money?I can shed a little more light here, though much of this may be known (I haven't been following much).
Basically, the CA lawsuit is the burden here and it is prohibiting them (albeit voluntarily so far) from operating Park Pass in FL and Magic Key Reservations in CA as intended.
It's quite odd to be blocked out on specific days (due to tier) but then also blocked out on other days while the park is not full. So they are continually having to reallocate Park Passes and Magic Key Reservations to ensure that APs receive the last of the inventory. APs right now have the top priority in reservations (behind Club 33 and Golden Oak). Then resort guests and day tickets. I believe the goal was to prioritize resort guests over APs and then day tickets last. This is obviously exasperated on weekends (which is why until now only APs at both parks for weekdays was availabile).
In any event, the program will be completely overhauled and there is a lot on the table. I assume that by now they have landed on a final version (I haven't heard much on this in a couple months).
Safe to say that block outs + park pass is not going to be the long term experience. You can read between the lines there a bit to guess what they may try next. I've heard some crazy, crazy things regarding this (as I did with Genie+). I imagine the final solution won't be as hectic as what was floating around.
I'm guessing they're going to make even more blackouts and restrict APs on both coasts even more, unless you pay a large amount of money?
I'm guessing a discount club. It's the only thing that makes sense.
It's like having any-time day tickets. The more you buy, the cheaper the day-ticket until you hit a minimum fee.
A Park Pass is a huge boon to those who go *a lot*. If, e.g., you pay $1,000 for a Park Pass, then if you go weekly for about 50 times in a year, then your admittance fee is only $20 per visit. You go several times a week, you could wind up paying the equivalent of $5 a visit.
A vacation club lets you pay a fee up front, e.g., $500, but then you can buy as many day tickets you want for the year at $30 each (for example)... for whatever availability you can find... there's no explicit or implicit promise of a guaranteed entrance on the day you're going.
Yeah, it'll be much more expensive than for those used to paying the equivalent of $20 or $5 per visit, but, for those who go that often, it will still be cheaper than the current day-ticket system.
And when there are no AP holders, who does Disney turn to during an economic downturn? Locals won't be as eager to go without free parking. Fewer discounts gets rid of a lot of other people who would otherwise spend money on-property. But Bob seems eager to cut off his nose to spite his face.
Seems like he is basing this all off the DLR model. Most visitors to the DLR are locals, and they've effectively discontinued APs there and it doesn't seem to hurt them.
I think he's going to find out that once the unprecedented demand vanishes, Florida is going to be a different beast.
But never mind the locals....What about the DVC Suckers?
I believe this is what they were referring to from the Aug 2020 earnings call:
As you know, different guests—depending on where they’re coming from—have different relative values in terms of their contribution as a guest to the park. Typically, somebody who travels and stays for 5 to 7 days is marginally more valuable to the business than someone who comes in on an Annual Pass and stays a day or two and consumes less merchandise and food and beverage. So the way I would look at it, as our constituency changes a little bit, so do our overall margins.
Early summer actually did have discounts. I think honestly if they wanted to suspend APs entirely I wouldn't have been able to renew a month or so ago....It's quite clear they would much prefer to do away with ALL APs. They started the process last year, with the new passes, of pushing people away from APs. The massive price hikes and removal of included perks like photo pass started to thin the heard. I can expect the price hikes this year will be equally off putting.
But you sort of see where they're going with this. Notice there are no Summer AP deals yet. I mean it's clear that the temporary suspension of AP sales isn't temporary anymore. The next logical step will the paring down of perks (discounts) you get with your AP. Time to wait and see where this goes as they continue to cull the herd.
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