I think that there's a third option that eventually will happen. DCL will expand. DCL will build more ships and possibly sail to other destinations. When this happens, the supply of cabins will increase and they'll be doing some wheeling and dealing to fill those cabins and prices will come down. It's inevitable. Some say the reason that they're waiting to build new ships is because of the high price of oil and steel or a poor exchange rate on the Euro. I think that there's also another big reason - a company has to establish themselves before they can expand.
In a previous post I wrote that since 1999 when Disney's last ship set sail, Celebrity has added 5 ships to its fleet, NCL 7, HAL 8, both Carnival and Princess have added 10, while RCL has added 11. DCL has just added higher prices. Well, upon further reflection I realized that with the exception of Celebrity - the new kid on the block - all of the other cruise lines were started in the 60's or 70's. Those companies had already established their product. In less then six years, the Disney Cruise Line has become a remarkable success story. But we all have to concede that they are mass market. Disney is not attempting to make its cruise line into a luxury brand with fewer cabins, more personalized service, 4 star cuisine and smaller boats. When they build more boats the prices are going to come down.
I said before that Americans like a good deal. Well Americans can also be very impatient but if you want a good deal, you have to be patient. 2006 and 2007 will probably be lousy years to take a Disney Cruise if you want a deal. Oh well. I'll just sail on another cruise line. But think about this. You can now buy a plasma T.V. for less than $1500.00. You couldn't do that in 2001. You can buy a VCR for less than $40.00. Remember what the prices were like in 1980? Think about computers, cell phones, camcorders, cd players and microwaves. Nowaday's everyone is cruising and DCL is going to want everyone to cruise with them. Those who are sailing with DCL nowadays may feel some exclusivity. My prediction - enjoy the feeling - your days are numbered.