Disney Announces New Nature Resort on Bay Lake

[kong1802]

I mostly agree. But the studio point cost vs the rate rate of a standard room in the hotel is most likely what your average DVC prospect is going to use to extrapolate cost comparisons.

I’m not so sure of your assessment of the average DVC prospect....

From all of the upsells and clamoring I see for them, the WDW crowd seems to be more of the “take my money” mindset, at least lately...

 

[MMFanCipher]

Through Fort Wilderness...

They have to be building a new entrance for this right ? What about Pioneer Hall, ranch , and marina ?

This. From what I have read most of the people came through the Fort. They better be planning on a different route.

 

[jbolen2]

This. From what I have read most of the people came through the Fort. They better be planning on a different route.

just looking at an aerial of the area it looks like the west wilderness road is what they would use. It would be the shortest and cheapest way for them to do it since the road already exist and runs straight to world drive.

 

[MMFanCipher]

Yes, I hope that's what they do, but I also read a few years ago, when this first came up, that they were thinking about making a new road
along the canal that crosses Vista Blvd and then connect to Frontier Way.

 

[xdan0920]

I’m not so sure of your assessment of the average DVC prospect....

From all of the upsells and clamoring I see for them, the WDW crowd seems to be more of the “take my money” mindset, at least lately...

This is true. but....

The DVC buyers like to do the math that compares a DVC Villa rack rate to their buy in and dues for DVC. It makes them feel like the $200 a point they just spent is actually a bargain. "Ya know, when you really think about it. You practically break even in 5 years." Everyone on the planet knows that math is garbage, but when you are writing a $40,000 check to TWDC, you gotta make yourself believe you are totally gonna come out ahead.

So to that point, you can't charge cheap rack rates for rooms at a split resort. If you do, the fake value disappears.

 

[doctornick]

I'm just hoping that they include a decent pool/recreation area that will honor the spirit of River Country. (Much like this earlier, and superior, plan did!)
View attachment 321727

How do we know it won't be something like this? I mean, good ideas never die at WDI, right? I would think they dusted off those old plans and modified them in terms of what they are planning for the new/announced resort at that site.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I would think these rooms would have to sell at a rack rate of 400 and up to make the math work when selling the DVC contracts. DVC will be at or over $200 a point when this resort comes on line.

The math wouldn’t tenchinally need to work that way since they are not the same rooms. Rack rate for the hotels rooms could be lower than Rack rate for the DVC rooms. Just as it is for many deluxe properties and their DVC studio counterparts.

That’s the problem with raising the price of DVC x2 in about a decade...isn’t it?

But...If you sell them (rack rooms) at $350-400...you do 2 things:

Recenter the “moderates” to the lower upper class...which I think is what they have to do to sell if you don’t want to spend like they did on the roy O./Eisner hotels

Push those people into DVC sales.


I see that exact thing going on at Caribbean and I think it goes to port right after...they’re not spending money on springs and gondolas to “reward” the customers.

 

[Lensman]

Rack rate for the hotels rooms could be lower than Rack rate for the DVC rooms. Just as it is for many deluxe properties and their DVC studio counterparts.

Interesting. What are the different rack rates for DVC villas vs deluxe resort rooms? And are they discounted differently? Or do they end up going for the same price?

I mostly agree. But the studio point cost vs the rate rate of a standard room in the hotel is most likely what your average DVC prospect is going to use to extrapolate cost comparisons.

I’m not so sure of your assessment of the average DVC prospect....

From all of the upsells and clamoring I see for them, the WDW crowd seems to be more of the “take my money” mindset, at least lately...

So you're saying that the "WDW crowd" isn't price sensitive and doesn't do the analysis of "rent" vs "own"?

This is true. but....

The DVC buyers like to do the math that compares a DVC Villa rack rate to their buy in and dues for DVC. It makes them feel like the $200 a point they just spent is actually a bargain. "Ya know, when you really think about it. You practically break even in 5 years." Everyone on the planet knows that math is garbage, but when you are writing a $40,000 check to TWDC, you gotta make yourself believe you are totally gonna come out ahead.

So to that point, you can't charge cheap rack rates for rooms at a split resort. If you do, the fake value disappears.

Most of the people doing DVC "rent room" vs "buy" analysis on this forum/mouseowners/mouseplanet uses some discounted room price. I have seen a few kool-aid drinkers who put in rack rates, but when you put in rack rates into the analysis spreadsheets you get some kind of ridiculous result that lacks credibility. The biggest shortcoming of most analysis spreadsheets I've seen is the lack of accounting for the cost of funds (i.e. time value of money).

Anyway, I wouldn't be so quick to denigrate DVC owners who do financial analysis to determine breakeven. There's no need to build up one's ego by mocking them, at least. Doing less of that here would make this a more pleasant place and give everyone a better impression of our own psychopathology.

 

[xdan0920]

Anyway, I wouldn't be so quick to denigrate DVC owners who do financial analysis to determine breakeven. There's no need to build up one's ego by mocking them, at least. Doing less of that here would make this a more pleasant place and give everyone a better impression of our own psychopathology.

I am a DVC owner. I’m not denigrating DVC owners. I’m denigrating the foggy math used to justify the outrageous buy in that DVC is currently charging.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Anyway, I wouldn't be so quick to denigrate DVC owners who do financial analysis to determine breakeven. There's no need to build up one's ego by mocking them, at least. Doing less of that here would make this a more pleasant place and give everyone a better impression of our own psychopathology.

I am a DVC owner. I’m not denigrating DVC owners. I’m denigrating the foggy math used to justify the outrageous buy in that DVC is currently charging.

To me...”denigration” when talking about Disney pricing is a red herring.

That is an excuse that leads back to “it’s worth it to ME...”. Which is mentality of the decade that has lead everyone - not the individual - off a pricing cliff.

So as a longtime Disney owner...I do level blame on DVC owners. But it’s not a personal afront. It’s a collective choice. And the choice is being made. The points have climbed dramatically and nobody has blinked.

Oh well.

Just my opinion.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

"Nature-inspired"? "Themed around its natural surroundings"?

I know its just concept art but I'm not seeing any theme whatsoever so far.

Aside from size, its hard to see how this design is leaps and bounds beyond the Marriott hotel that opened near where I live this past spring:

Hopefully, it will be more impressive once more details emerge.

 

[JoeCamel]

"Nature-inspired"? "Themed around its natural surroundings"?

I know its just concept art but I'm not seeing any theme whatsoever so far.

Aside from size, its hard to see how this design is leaps and bounds beyond the Marriott hotel that opened near where I live this past spring:

View attachment 321910

Hopefully, it will be more impressive once more details emerge.

What is the rack for that?

 

[Lensman]

The DVC buyers like to do the math that compares a DVC Villa rack rate to their buy in and dues for DVC. It makes them feel like the $200 a point they just spent is actually a bargain. "Ya know, when you really think about it. You practically break even in 5 years." Everyone on the planet knows that math is garbage, but when you are writing a $40,000 check to TWDC, you gotta make yourself believe you are totally gonna come out ahead.

I am a DVC owner. I’m not denigrating DVC owners. I’m denigrating the foggy math used to justify the outrageous buy in that DVC is currently charging.

If you say so, but your choice of wording isn't the best if your intent is to abstractly attacking the math rather than a class of individuals, I'm sorry to say. That is, if you're being honest about your intent. Are you sure you're not just trying to defend your attack on the other owners who you think are using faulty inputs in their analysis? And are there really that great a proportion of them who do? Or are we exaggerating the proportion for various reasons? I do think it's hard to find useful examples because prices have gone up so much so quickly that it's hard to connect the prices used in people's analysis with the rack pricing for Disney in a particular year. It's particularly hard because in order to do a typical analysis, you have to pick a time of year and use the point chart to get the number of points and use that against a room price calendar, which of course never corresponds to rack price.

That is an excuse that leads back to “it’s worth it to ME...”. Which is mentality of the decade that has lead everyone - not the individual - off a pricing cliff.

I think the "it's worth it to ME" people tend to be the ones not doing much rigorous financial analysis at all, regardless of what input they're using for room prices. I'd guess that more than 90% of DVC buyers don't do any kind of financial analysis of any kind before buying, unless you count figuring out whether they can afford the monthly payments of financing or whether they have enough money in their checking account.

So as a longtime Disney owner...I do level blame on DVC owners. But it’s not a personal afront. It’s a collective choice. And the choice is being made. The points have climbed dramatically and nobody has blinked.

I do wonder whether part of the inflation in DVC prices is due to low interest rates? It's certainly drives up the analytical value of DVC ownership. But I doubt it because it so rarely comes into play in the analysis I've seen. I do wonder what kind of breakeven analysis the DVC salespeople present as part of their pitch. I'm sure it would horrify me. Lol. No doubt it would horrify you!

 

[Lensman]

"Nature-inspired"? "Themed around its natural surroundings"?

I know its just concept art but I'm not seeing any theme whatsoever so far.

Aside from size, its hard to see how this design is leaps and bounds beyond the Marriott hotel that opened near where I live this past spring:

View attachment 321910

Hopefully, it will be more impressive once more details emerge.

I don't see any stone veneer or wood on the Renaissance example. Nor do I see any brick or metal in the Disney design.

I think we have to come up with credible comparisons if we're going to construct valid criticisms of the Disney design, otherwise we're just blowhards producing rhetoric.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

I don't see any stone veneer or wood on the Renaissance example. Nor do I see any brick or metal in the Disney design.

I think we have to come up with credible comparisons if we're going to construct valid criticisms of the Disney design, otherwise we're just blowhards producing rhetoric.

I never said they were the exact same. My point was that the Disney design, which should easily be more impressive than a chain hotel plopped down in the suburb of a Midwestern city, is not based on what I have seen so far. That opinion could change, again, once more details emerge.

 

[SteamboatJoe]

What is the rack for that?

The standard room rate on a weeknight is $209. You can get the 1-bedroom executive suite during the week for around $259 a night. The breakfast package for that same room is $284 a night. The weekend rates are a little cheaper since the hotel is largely intended to serve the many business and medical offices it sits near by (or will soon sit near by).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

"Nature-inspired"? "Themed around its natural surroundings"?

I know its just concept art but I'm not seeing any theme whatsoever so far.

Aside from size, its hard to see how this design is leaps and bounds beyond the Marriott hotel that opened near where I live this past spring:

View attachment 321910

Hopefully, it will be more impressive once more details emerge.

You get free hot breakfast there...since disney serves powdered eggs now that is far superior

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think the "it's worth it to ME" people tend to be the ones not doing much rigorous financial analysis at all, regardless of what input they're using for room prices. I'd guess that more than 90% of DVC buyers don't do any kind of financial analysis of any kind before buying, unless you count figuring out whether they can afford the monthly payments of financing or whether they have enough money in their checking account.

Fair points...you are probably right. Though plenty of second generation/“new money” types seem to be hanging around DVC’s these days...like “present for you, my princess on your wedding day. Love, sugar daddy” types...

I do wonder whether part of the inflation in DVC prices is due to low interest rates? It's certainly drives up the analytical value of DVC ownership. But I doubt it because it so rarely comes into play in the analysis I've seen. I do wonder what kind of breakeven analysis the DVC salespeople present as part of their pitch. I'm sure it would horrify me. Lol. No doubt it would horrify you!

I don’t know...if you’re talking disney financing then that’s insane. DVC shouldn’t really be financed...at least not through DVC. It’s 10.99% through them...it’s not 0.0% through bmw.

If you make it work another way...then fine.

You might as well put the trip to the grand on discover and pay minimum payments instead of Disney sharking.

 

[Lensman]

Fair points...you are probably right. Though plenty of second generation/“new money” types seem to be hanging around DVC’s these days...like “present for you, my princess on your wedding day. Love, sugar daddy” types...

Lol. Do you mean people who have essentially inherited their parents DVC?

I don’t know...if you’re talking disney financing then that’s insane. DVC shouldn’t really be financed...at least not through DVC. It’s 10.99% through them...it’s not 0.0% through bmw.

Not really talking about financing. My analysis uses cost of funds (i.e. time value of money) to discount future cashflows to present value. This is separate from the inflation rate used for either hotel prices or dues. From the mid-90s through to the mid-00s, I'd use 5%-8% as this rate. I'd usually explain it as, "If you took the cost of buying DVC and instead bought a treasury bond, how much interest would you earn each year?" Fast forward to anytime after 2008 and you're looking at 0% to 3%.

So for example in 2005, you could take your $20k, put it in a money market account, earn $1000 a year, and it would pay for half of your $2000 resort stay. Fast forward to 2015 and that $20k in a money market account would only earn you $50 a year, so buying DVC looks more attractive in comparison. [Note: That's not my actual analysis, but that's the kind of thing I'd say if I was a salesperson. As I said, I incorporate this rate into my DVC spreadsheet by discounting future cashflows.]

Back to the original topic of room prices, I'd expect them to be roughly similar to room prices at the Wilderness Lodge.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Lol. Do you mean people who have essentially inherited their parents DVC?



Not really talking about financing. My analysis uses cost of funds (i.e. time value of money) to discount future cashflows to present value. This is separate from the inflation rate used for either hotel prices or dues. From the mid-90s through to the mid-00s, I'd use 5%-8% as this rate. I'd usually explain it as, "If you took the cost of buying DVC and instead bought a treasury bond, how much interest would you earn each year?" Fast forward to anytime after 2008 and you're looking at 0% to 3%.

So for example in 2005, you could take your $20k, put it in a money market account, earn $1000 a year, and it would pay for half of your $2000 resort stay. Fast forward to 2015 and that $20k in a money market account would only earn you $50 a year, so buying DVC looks more attractive in comparison. [Note: That's not my actual analysis, but that's the kind of thing I'd say if I was a salesperson. As I said, I incorporate this rate into my DVC spreadsheet by discounting future cashflows.]

Back to the original topic of room prices, I'd expect them to be roughly similar to room prices at the Wilderness Lodge.

I’d expect sub wilderness lodge...trying to create a “cut line”...facilities will be reduced to reflect that.

I think your financial wizardry is way above the heads of the dusters that flock to DVC...

And I mean people who work for their mom/dad that then Buy DVC “on their own”...hence “second generation”...

That’s only gonna get worse as later generations appear and act utterly helpless in 3 dimensions