Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

As someone who uses AI daily I have no fear of the technology. But I do think its usage should be limited, as I've said now numerous times. I think it has its place in society, but replacing human actors with AI generated ones is not it. I think there are specific use cases where it can be used in entertainment, as I mentioned, like to revive an actor that died provided the estate gets compensated for its use. But beyond that it should be limited in how its used. To me there is no benefit to replacing actors, and AI should be used to benefit humanity not replace it. And I'm sure its a sentiment that I'm not alone in.

I totally get all that. It's a noble thought.

It's just important to remember that sentiment didn't have any impact before technology got rid of the ladies in the Steno Pool. And the typists. And the telephone operators. And the milkmen. And the taxi dispatchers. And the airport ticket agents. And the film developers. And the assembly line workers. And the entire Mimeograph department. And the newspaper delivery boys. And the Red Caps at the airport. Etc., etc., etc.

 

[Disney Irish]

I totally get all that. It's a noble thought.

It's just important to remember that sentiment didn't have any impact before technology got rid of the ladies in the Steno Pool. And the stenographers. And the telephone operators. And the milkmen. And the taxi dispatchers. And the airport ticket agents. And the film developers. And the assembly line workers. And the entire Mimeograph department. And the newspaper delivery boys. And the Red Caps at the airport. Etc., etc., etc.

And those technological advancements all came with a cost but the benefits outweighed the cost. So we have to weigh the benefits vs the costs here.

We know the costs, but besides making Studios richer by not having to spend on talent what benefit is it to society to have AI replace actors? Does it make the content better? Does it make the entertainment industry better or worse? Many questions here.

So just saying X technology can just replace Y so flippantly you aren't doing a proper cost analysis on the subject.

 

[TP2000]

So just saying X technology can just replace Y so flippantly you aren't doing a proper cost analysis on the subject.

That's exactly what those Sharp Pencil Boys that Walt was always talking about are for. You can bet they're on it.

Just as with all other industries on the planet, Hollywood studios will do a cost/benefit analysis on A.I. and determine exactly what jobs it will replace. The voice of the talking squirrel could eventually improve with A.I., I'd imagine.

 

[Disney Irish]

That's exactly what those Sharp Pencil Boys that Walt was always talking about are for. You can bet they're on it.

Just as with all other industries on the planet, Hollywood studios will do a cost/benefit analysis on A.I. and determine exactly what jobs it will replace. The voice of the talking squirrel could eventually improve with A.I., I'd imagine.

But I'm asking you since you're the one who brings up its use here, so I'm putting it to you.....

We know the costs, but besides making Studios richer by not having to spend on talent what benefit is it to society to have AI replace actors? Does it make the content better? Does it make the entertainment industry better or worse?

 

[BuddyThomas]

But I'm asking you since you're the one who brings up its use here, so I'm putting it to you.....

We know the costs, but besides making Studios richer by not having to spend on talent what benefit is it to society to have AI replace actors? Does it make the content better? Does it make the entertainment industry better or worse?

As someone who trashed Wish harder than almost anyone on this board, even though he had not seen it, can you imagine how much harder he would have trashed it if all the voices were AI? I’m almost sure of it. And yet here he is, rooting for AI to take over. It’s almost unbelievable.

 

[Ghost93]

Just saw Challengers, which was an EXCELLENT movie. It's a very juicy drama, he three leading performances are terrific, and the score is phenomenal. Might be the best movie of 2024 so far. But I have no idea how it will do at the box office. I also wonder how audiences will react to it as I think the marketing has been pretty misleading (trying to sell it as some type of sex film when it's not like that at all). I think it's a better movie than what the trailers have sold but I guess we'll have to see how audiences react.

Haven't seen it yet, but I'm also rooting for Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt's The Fall Guy to do well. I just want non-franchise movies to have a chance of success at the box office. With Disney, the mid-range budget movies used to be somewhat profitable. But ever since the streaming era and launch of Disney Plus, it seems like the company is incapable of releasing anything that isn't a $200 tentpole. That strategy worked when all of the tentpoles were hits (from the 2010s) but it's proven to be quite costly the past few years.

 

[brideck]

Just saw Challengers, which was an EXCELLENT movie. It's a very juicy drama, he three leading performances are terrific, and the score is phenomenal. Might be the best movie of 2024 so far. But I have no idea how it will do at the box office. I also wonder how audiences will react to it as I think the marketing has been pretty misleading (trying to sell it as some type of sex film when it's not like that at all). I think it's a better movie than what the trailers have sold but I guess we'll have to see how audiences react.

Nice. I've been a fan of most of Guadagnino's recent stuff, so I've been looking forward to this one. I was surprised that it's getting pretty much all of the IMAX & Dolby screens around me, so someone definitely thinks it might do well. I see a prediction of around $17m out there, which is pretty good for an original character drama.

Also, there's a Disney movie (of sorts) opening this weekend, the 45th anniversary release of Alien. It's a re-release showdown between that and The Mummy.

 

[TP2000]

We know the costs, but besides making Studios richer by not having to spend on talent what benefit is it to society to have AI replace actors?

What benefit to society was gained by replacing typists, stenographers and dittos with email and desktop printers?

Does it make the content better?

Did it make the content of the memorandums better when the bosses went to emails instead of stenographers?

Does it make the entertainment industry better or worse?

That's yet to be seen, because A.I. is still in its infancy, and I'm not aware of Disney or Pixar replacing voiceover actors with it yet. But if a voiceover monologue for a movie preview, or a talking squirrel in a Pixar movie, or what have you, gets replaced by an A.I. voice instead of a human, will you know?

If it's done so well we can't tell the difference between human and A.I., but A.I. is much cheaper and more efficient, then perhaps we'll have our answer. At least for the Sharp Pencil Boys, even if the theater audience is unaware anything changed.

 

[Disney Irish]

What benefit to society was gained by replacing typists, stenographers and dittos with email and desktop printers?



Did it make the content of the memorandums better when the bosses went to emails instead of stenographers?



That's yet to be seen, because A.I. is still in its infancy, and I'm not aware of Disney or Pixar replacing voiceover actors with it yet. But if a voiceover monologue for a movie preview, or a talking squirrel in a Pixar movie, or what have you, gets replaced by an A.I. voice instead of a human, will you know?

If it's done so well we can't tell the difference between human and A.I., but A.I. is much cheaper and more efficient, then perhaps we'll have our answer. At least for the Sharp Pencil Boys, even if the theater audience is unaware anything changed.

So no answers, got it. I know you like "just asking questions", but I often times wonder if you really even think about the answers....

Oh and yes we'll know when an AI replaces an actor, especially the first time, as there is this little thing call the credits at the end of the movie. I know I watch them to see who is in the cast, and know many that do the same. So unless its credited as a specific actor, in which case they will be paid for the usage of their voice (is that really a cost savings), then it'll stand out as not being a real actor. And even if its a named actor I'm sure they'll let the world know it was AI that was used instead of them, and so it'll be know it wasn't a real actor nonetheless.

And I think you missed what I said earlier.... There are already Bills making there way through various state legislatures and even in Congress right now on limiting AIs usage. Some passing as recent as yesterday. There are even lawsuits and other legal things going on right now surrounding the usage of AI too, from copyrights to likeness rights. Once all this shakes out in the months and years ahead I'm fairly certain that we're not going to have this take over that you seem to envision is going to happen with AI in Hollywood.

Hollywood’s AI Concerns Present New and Complex Challenges for Legal Eagles to Untangle

Hollywood's legal eagles are on the vanguard of protecting clients about issues related to artificial intelligence.

variety.com

Hollywood Guilds Come Out Strong For “Ethical & Transparent” AI Bill From Adam Schiff

Along with a new bill just introduced in the US Congress, moves to put up new guardrails around AI are gaining traction

deadline.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Just saw Challengers, which was an EXCELLENT movie. It's a very juicy drama, he three leading performances are terrific, and the score is phenomenal. Might be the best movie of 2024 so far. But I have no idea how it will do at the box office. I also wonder how audiences will react to it as I think the marketing has been pretty misleading (trying to sell it as some type of sex film when it's not like that at all). I think it's a better movie than what the trailers have sold but I guess we'll have to see how audiences react.

Haven't seen it yet, but I'm also rooting for Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt's The Fall Guy to do well. I just want non-franchise movies to have a chance of success at the box office. With Disney, the mid-range budget movies used to be somewhat profitable. But ever since the streaming era and launch of Disney Plus, it seems like the company is incapable of releasing anything that isn't a $200 tentpole. That strategy worked when all of the tentpoles were hits (from the 2010s) but it's proven to be quite costly the past few years.

I saw Challengers tonight too. I thought it was really good, but agree the marketing is more misleading than is should be. Something we've seen often from many studios these days.

 

[DKampy]

Just saw Challengers, which was an EXCELLENT movie. It's a very juicy drama, he three leading performances are terrific, and the score is phenomenal. Might be the best movie of 2024 so far. But I have no idea how it will do at the box office. I also wonder how audiences will react to it as I think the marketing has been pretty misleading (trying to sell it as some type of sex film when it's not like that at all). I think it's a better movie than what the trailers have sold but I guess we'll have to see how audiences react.

Haven't seen it yet, but I'm also rooting for Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt's The Fall Guy to do well. I just want non-franchise movies to have a chance of success at the box office. With Disney, the mid-range budget movies used to be somewhat profitable. But ever since the streaming era and launch of Disney Plus, it seems like the company is incapable of releasing anything that isn't a $200 tentpole. That strategy worked when all of the tentpoles were hits (from the 2010s) but it's proven to be quite costly the past few years.

I have not seen either film yet… looking forward to both as they each have great reviews so far at 91% and 89% on Rotten Tomatoes respectively

I guess as far as The Fall Guy is concerned…it is technically not an original as the title come from an old 80’s tv show… but the trailers look fun and I love me some Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt… but if borrowing the title gets an original film in the marketplace… I am all for it… if you would of told me I would be this excited for a movie loosely based on an old 80’s television show I never watched… I would not believe it

 

[Willmark]

So no answers, got it. I know you like "just asking questions", but I often times wonder if you really even think about the answers....

Oh and yes we'll know when an AI replaces an actor, especially the first time, as there is this little thing call the credits at the end of the movie. I know I watch them to see who is in the cast, and know many that do the same. So unless its credited as a specific actor, in which case they will be paid for the usage of their voice (is that really a cost savings), then it'll stand out as not being a real actor. And even if its a named actor I'm sure they'll let the world know it was AI that was used instead of them, and so it'll be know it wasn't a real actor nonetheless.

And I think you missed what I said earlier.... There are already Bills making there way through various state legislatures and even in Congress right now on limiting AIs usage. Some passing as recent as yesterday. There are even lawsuits and other legal things going on right now surrounding the usage of AI too, from copyrights to likeness rights. Once all this shakes out in the months and years ahead I'm fairly certain that we're not going to have this take over that you seem to envision is going to happen with AI in Hollywood.

Hollywood’s AI Concerns Present New and Complex Challenges for Legal Eagles to Untangle

Hollywood's legal eagles are on the vanguard of protecting clients about issues related to artificial intelligence.

variety.com

Hollywood Guilds Come Out Strong For “Ethical & Transparent” AI Bill From Adam Schiff

Along with a new bill just introduced in the US Congress, moves to put up new guardrails around AI are gaining traction

deadline.com

Laws are going to limit the advance of technology?

 

[DKampy]

Laws are going to limit the advance of technology?

Will not limit advancement but will limit how such advancement is used as been discussed by others AI is a great tool for assist not replacement

 

[Willmark]

Will not limit advancement but will limit how such advancement is used as been discussed by others AI is a great tool for assist not replacement

As I discussed previously in the thread there are a whole host of problems with AI that humans are not even anticipating or AI will be able to think around.

As of now we are in control…for now.

And when that happens AI replacing actors isn’t even going to be in the Top 100 worse cases issues.

Suffice of to say without getting political, this is an issue that cuts across everything in terms of importance. There is no stuffing the genie back in the bottle.

The only question is when, not if.

 

[DKampy]

As I discussed previously in the thread there are a whole host of problems with AI that humans are not even anticipating or AI will be able to think around.

As of now we are in control…for now.

And when that happens AI replacing actors isn’t even going to be in the Top 100 worse cases issues.

Suffice of to say without getting political, this is an issue that cuts across everything in terms of importance. There is no stuffing the genie back in the bottle.

The only question is when, not if.

Well I do not believe we are in a Terminator like AI control in my or your lifetime… AI still needs to be program by humans… so it is best to limit the way AI can be used now

 

[Willmark]

Well I do not believe we are in a Terminator like AI control in my or your lifetime… AI still needs to be program by humans… so it is best to limit the way AI can be used now

Skynet becoming self aware? Never say never, not likely soon but the folly of human conceit is a funny thing.

My concern is it getting close to thinking without context. It doesn’t have to be (as I noted prior) sapient, just close to it.

I have some specific examples but will run afoul (likely) of forum rules.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Well I do not believe we are in a Terminator like AI control in my or your lifetime… AI still needs to be program by humans… so it is best to limit the way AI can be used now

A bit of an aside - I think the fear with AI is not so much that it will become sentient with a will of its own. It’s more that a “glitch” in an extremely powerful computer system could have huge consequences. I.e. you program it to “maximize production of crops” and it starts destroying cities in order to create farmland for more crops (that may be a bad example but that’s the general idea, I believe.)

Also, fwiw, I think the talk of AI replacing actors is overblown right now. Actors have waaaaay more to worry about from YouTube influencers, in my opinion (they occupy eyeballs and attention and lower the overall price of entertainment by flooding the market with free content.) Actors and writers probably occupy a niche that is actually the furthest (or very far) away from what AI is starting to do really well. I think AI at this point is a bit more like a wildly complex, glorified graphing calculator with some ability to work with language (in a rule bound, calculator-esque way.) What actors do has that uniquely human element that is one of the hardest things for AI to truly replicate. I would imagine that those working in graphics and CGI related fields will see a big impact first. What a single person had to painstakingly do by hand will, I think, be very rapidly replaced with computers who do it in seconds.

 

[Disney Irish]

Laws are going to limit the advance of technology?

Better to put guardrails on it now before it gets out of control.

 

[TP2000]

So no answers, got it. I know you like "just asking questions", but I often times wonder if you really even think about the answers....

Something tells me that technology will continue to do things cheaper and faster than humans can often do them. And that will likely include the voiceover role of a talking squirrel or something in cartoons, at least to start.

Where will A.I. be in 2030 in Hollywood? We just don't know yet, but my bet is on the Sharp Pencil Boys getting their way.

 

[TP2000]

Hi gang, box office is out for Thursday with a few new movies premiering yesterday. That dropped The First Omen down to 13th place, so it will be interesting to see where it spends this weekend and if it holds on to all its theaters.

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Thursday May 2, 2024

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Thursday May 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com