Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

Harris is an exceptionally smart dude. Essentially, the old box office math where the guys that live in Excel can just plug in “JNTITLED MARVEL FILM” for April 2026 is over. Not to say those films don’t do well. But a greenlit production cost of $250M+ and $100-150M marketing with the expectation that film hits $850M theatrically at a minimum is unsustainable.

 

[celluloid]

But people are judging…they are saying this movie is going to be awful and flop…I have not even looked at the photos…I am sure any film set could have a random photo leaked to cause people to think WTH

Yes. They are judging what they see. They have aright to judge it how it looks. The poster you quoted. said based on photos they saw and were aware they were not liking how they looked.

We don't have to only wait and see what PR tells us.
The PR Am approved things in life are not exactly square either.

 

[celluloid]

In one weekend Barbie dominated all of Disney's opening weekends and surpassed worldwide Indy 5 total and Disney Pixar total on 2/3rd budget. Amazing.

 

[brb1006]

‘We’re not going to compromise’: Actors’ union says strike could last until 2024

The actors’ union chief negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland says the actors’ strike might last until next year, and explains the key issues.

www.smh.com.au

 

[GimpYancIent]

‘We’re not going to compromise’: Actors’ union says strike could last until 2024

The actors’ union chief negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland says the actors’ strike might last until next year, and explains the key issues.

www.smh.com.au

Hmmmm I wonder how many movies are in the can ready to be released to the public? Will the currently released productions have their cinematic runs extended? Yeah, I can see this going for a while since the leverage the actors used to enjoy has eroded.

 

[TsWade2]

‘We’re not going to compromise’: Actors’ union says strike could last until 2024

The actors’ union chief negotiator Duncan Crabtree-Ireland says the actors’ strike might last until next year, and explains the key issues.

www.smh.com.au

Wait a minute! That’s in Australia! That doesn’t count! Anyway, those Hollywood executives better hurry up and make a fair and better deal to end the double strike. They’re ruining Disney‘s 100 Years of Wonder.

Disney Irish, if you please?

 

[Tha Realest]

Hmmmm I wonder how many movies are in the can ready to be released to the public? Will the currently released productions have their cinematic runs extended? Yeah, I can see this going for a while since the leverage the actors used to enjoy has eroded.

“In the can” can be a nebulous concept. A finished film May still require ADR or reshoots. They may make compromises to release as is if they can’t have the talent come back. I thought I read that some productions already filming couldn’t be reworked while the writer’s strike was going on (one anecdote I heard was that Reynolds couldn’t ad-lib during Deadpool 3 because he was also credited as a writer, and coming up with new dialogue would’ve been a violation of the writers strike going on at the time).

 

[TsWade2]

Like I said, the executives better make a fair and better deal to end this strike! This has to end immediately!

 

[Disney Analyst]

In one weekend Barbie dominated all of Disney's opening weekends and surpassed worldwide Indy 5 total and Disney Pixar total on 2/3rd budget. Amazing.

Okay now do the other studios also. Or is it only Disney?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Barbie was absolutely marketed towards kids in addition to adults.

I think this may be the one thing that backfires against it, or may hurt its box office in the long run.

It's being heavily marketed to children, but it is definitely not a kids movie [personally, I am fine with that].

I honestly think kids are going to be bored and confused by Barbie. Much of the plot, themes and humor will go over their heads.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I think this may be the one thing that backfires against it, or may hurt its box office in the long run.

It's being heavily marketed to children, but it is definitely not a kids movie [personally, I am fine with that].

I honestly think kids are going to be bored and confused by Barbie. Much of the plot, themes and humor will go over their heads.

I mean, it is PG-13, 13-17 is considered a teenager. The marketing to me has felt geared towards young adults, adults, teens, queer people, and women.

Parents can do their research and decide if it’s suitable for those younger.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I mean, it is PG-13, 13-17 is considered a teenager. The marketing to me has felt geared towards young adults, adults, teens, queer people, and women.

The movie is also being directly marketed to children with products like the play line dolls at toy stores and Cineplex's kids meals.

Many will make the assumption that this is a family movie based on that alone. Similar with what happened with Roger Rabbit.

"Do your research" is more of an ask in this case because what makes the movie mature isn't the usual checks the MPAA would give it (foul language, graphic violence etc), but more the overall plot and tone which is harder to judge without seeing the movie first.

 

[Casper Gutman]

This is very wishful thinking by a guy who idolizes the New Hollywood based on eight months (less, really) of evidence and a lot of hand-waving.

He’s reaching HARd on the hits outside this weekend - M3GAN is cheap horror, which he must know hits at the box office more then it misses, and Blumhouse is its own IP; Cocaine Bear was an underperformer, particularly when we consider the studio expected it to be embraced as a kitschy meme like Barbie; and that other film, who’s “success” is entirely dependent on a collection of extremely unique, socially corrosive, non-reproducible factors.

We’ll see where we are in a year, but I’m highly skeptical that, sometime between the end of 2022 (when Strange and Wakanda had much larger openings then Barbie and all of the Oscar-y originals performed unprecedentedly poorly) and Summer 2023 the American audience’s taste did a 180 (he also isn’t addressing the massive change in the Chinese market, which is almost as important to the BO story). Let’s see how Napoleon, Captain America, Deadpool, August Moon, Inside Out 2, etc. do. But hey, this should be great news for Haunted Mansion, huh?

Oh, and as for surging franchises - John Wick.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I mean, it is PG-13, 13-17 is considered a teenager. The marketing to me has felt geared towards young adults, adults, teens, queer people, and women.

Parents can do their research and decide if it’s suitable for those younger.

In practical terms, PG and PG-13 amount to the same thing in evaluating a film. Parents watch out for R, but other then that it’s a game of inches.

 

[TP2000]

The way this weekend fell into place for the summer tentpoles is incredible. Indy 5 and Mission: Impossible have fallen almost totally off the radar, and seem to be huge money losers for their respective studios. And the little indie film about child sex trafficking with a mere $14 Million budget that Disney wouldn't release is suddenly heading to meet or exceed Indy 5's domestic box office. (I scratched out the title to help people avoid hurting their eyes, but the box office tally remains).

This was NOT how this summer was supposed to go for Burbank.

 

[TP2000]

I mean, it is PG-13, 13-17 is considered a teenager. The marketing to me has felt geared towards young adults, adults, teens, queer people, and women.

Ya think?

Parents can do their research and decide if it’s suitable for those younger.

Exactly. There is a massively huge difference between a 7 or 8 year old and a 12 or 13 year old, and each parent knows instinctively where on that development journey their individual child is. Even the family baby sitter knows. Barbie is not a movie for 7 year old children, obviously.

 

[TP2000]

Also, a friendly reminder that Barbie, while huge, looks earthshakingly unprecedented because of how odd and stingy the 2023 box office has been. In 2022, it's opening weekend would be way behind Doctor Strange and Wakanda Forever, two Marvel films this board considers only middling successes, and would have been comparable to, if a bit more then, Jurassic Park and Thor.

The problem there, since this is the Box Office thread, is that the production budgets were so bloated on the three Marvel films from Disney that their box office could barely cover their costs. Then on top of that, reputable sources like Variety are claiming the global marketing budgets for these Marvel movies are upwards of $200 Million. (We'll go lowball and claim they only spent $150 on marketing per film).

Barbie has a production budget around half that of a Marvel film, and so it's the movie that is going to save the Warner Bros. lot from being sold off to condo developers. Disney desperately needs to learn a few things about budgeting and cost containment.

Black Panther Production/Marketing Costs $400, Global Box Office Take $431, Disney Profit = $31 Million
Thor Production/Marketing Costs $400, Global Box Office Take $373, Disney Loss = $27 Million
Dr. Strange Production/Marketing Costs $300, Global Box Office Take $463, Disney Profit = $163 Million

Disney made a grand total of $167 Million (optimistically) off of those three mega-budget Marvel movies. Barbie looks like it's going to double or triple that profit for Warner Bros. just from one movie about a pretty doll everyone loves and her hunky boyfriend no one cares about.

M:I is having a much steeper fall off then Indy did, which... I hate. I love both those franchises, and want Tom Cruise to run across rooftops forever.

I lost interest in Mr. Cruise once he stopped dancing around in his underwear 40 years ago. He's way too short for my tastes.

 

[Disney Irish]

What is it marvel is making that you believe audiences want to see? Currently

Deadpool 3. A rated R action comedy with the "Merc with a Mouth" and "Weapon X" is honestly the palate cleanser for the MCU that many are asking for.

They need a major reset. As in don’t think this fringe stuff is gonna keep interest until you “get around” to more big name stuff.

Better get to it. Or start signing checks for triumphant returns…

We'll see, but that fringe stuff still pulled in over $3B over the last 2 years. So its clear there is still a market and audience for it, budgets aside.

 

[Disney Irish]

The problem there, since this is the Box Office thread, is that the production budgets were so bloated on the three Marvel films from Disney that their box office could barely cover their costs. Then on top of that, reputable sources like Variety are claiming the global marketing budgets for these Marvel movies are upwards of $200 Million. (We'll go lowball and claim they only spent $150 on marketing per film).

Barbie has a production budget around half that of a Marvel film, and so it's the movie that is going to save the Warner Bros. lot from being sold off to condo developers. Disney desperately needs to learn a few things about budgeting and cost containment.

Black Panther Production/Marketing Costs $400, Global Box Office Take $431, Disney Profit = $31 Million
Thor Production/Marketing Costs $400, Global Box Office Take $373, Disney Loss = $27 Million
Dr. Strange Production/Marketing Costs $300, Global Box Office Take $463, Disney Profit = $163 Million

Disney made a grand total of $167 Million (optimistically) off of those three mega-budget Marvel movies. Barbie looks like it's going to double or triple that profit for Warner Bros. just from one movie about a pretty doll everyone loves and her hunky boyfriend no one cares about.

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I lost interest in Mr. Cruise once he stopped dancing around in his underwear 40 years ago. He's way too short for my tastes.

And despite that TWDC will still turn a profit, and WBD will most likely still report a loss.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'd say we're guaranteed to get Hot Wheels and He-Man. Barney is already in production. Fisher-Price, American Girl, Street Sharks, Dino Riders, Polly Pocket are all possibles. I'd also expect Mattel to try and acquire other film-ready IP. This is their whole corporate strategy - as I mentioned, they're already building the theme park.

Toys…are not really much of a thing with the younger couple of generations…so the “20 years later” marketing to parents Mah not hold

If they start another he man universe, I hope they’re able to work with dreamworks to include She-Ra (they own both the live action and animated rights to the character). The reboot on Netflix was very well done, and with he man could be an interesting live action cinematic universe to visit.

We’ll see