Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

I think both Eisner and Iger WAY over estimated the reach Disney would have brand wise. At least in terms of movies and to a less extent, merch.

Either way, it is interesting that one park seems to do well while the other struggles to even break even each year. I haven't been to either but I was under the impression that both were at least worth a visit.

HK was another in the lineup of Eisner underbuilt misfires. But the rest of them were all at least attached to something worthwhile.

SDL was at least a complete offering on opening. It compares favourably to Epic Universe. Honestly, I would say its opening lineup is stronger on paper.

Then HK suffered a double edged sword because it was actually recovering towards success on the back of Mystic Manor (plus prior minilands) and Iron Man, but the protests undid tourism followed by Covid. Also it had to compete in mindshare with the arguably more impressive SDL. Again though it seems to have rebounded wonderfully, so I’m hoping it sticks because it’s really actually a well built out gate these days. Not perfect, but really worth visiting if one is going to Hong Kong. Which I actually did twice prior to its 2010’s early expansions and didn’t bother with the park.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Inside Out 2 brings up another interesting trend, Disney not being willing pay big bucks for some talent.

Mindy Kaling and Bill Hader may not be an audience draw like a Steve Carrell is for the Despicable franchise, but it's noteworthy that Amy Poehler seems to be the only cast member they're willing pay big for.

Maybe that makes sense. It's smart to have one big name, see also the Rock for Moana, who is a draw and will promote the movie well. Shelling out for a large well known cast like the Shrek franchise does, might not make sense.

Supporting roles can be filled with lesser known voice actors.

It's nothing new. In the past a lot of actors did Disney cartoons simply because of the prestige involved, and to do something for their kids or what not.

Does Disney need big names to sell their movies the same way a Kung Fu Panda does?

A downside to those cost savings is, potentially alienating actors in general. Does this create a reputation of being cheap making people less inclined to work for them?

Maybe this is just a blip. They have no issues paying for, and attracting, big names to Marvel.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I’m not ready to discount the streaming affect on the box office yet, I think the big takeaway from IO2 (Barbi, Mario, TopGun, etc) is if your movie looks good and has positive word of mouth people will still pay to go see it, if your movie looks bad (or even average), and has negative word of mouth, people will wait to stream it.

Disney put out a string of stinkers last year, it makes sense it snowballed and more and more people waited to watch them for free, if they can put out a string of hits this year they should benefit from the same snowball affect.

Yep. It's unlikely streaming has minimal impact.

The question today often is, do I want to see this movie now or wait 1-3 months? In the past it was simply, do I want to see this movie?

The right movie can hit big, but a movie that's just "okay" is going to have more of an uphill battle than in the past.

Overall, nothing much has changed in terms of moviegoing. There are lots of armchair quarterbacks who just "knew" a movie would bomb and cannot fathom why certain movies were greenlit, but there have always been surprise hits and misses.

Who would have predicted Inside Out 2 of all things to be one of the biggest animated movies of all time?

 

[DKampy]

Inside Out 2 brings up another interesting trend, Disney not being willing pay big bucks for some talent.

Mindy Kaling and Bill Hader may not be an audience draw like a Steve Carrell is for the Despicable franchise, but it's noteworthy that Amy Poehler seems to be the only cast member they're willing pay big for.

Maybe that makes sense. It's smart to have one big name, see also the Rock for Moana, who is a draw and will promote the movie well. Shelling out for a large well known cast like the Shrek franchise does, might not make sense.

Supporting roles can be filled with lesser known voice actors.

It's nothing new. In the past a lot of actors did Disney cartoons simply because of the prestige involved, and to do something for their kids or what not.

Does Disney need big names to sell their movies the same way a Kung Fu Panda does?

A downside to those cost savings is, potentially alienating actors in general. Does this create a reputation of being cheap making people less inclined to work for them?

Maybe this is just a blip. They have no issues paying for, and attracting, big names to Marvel.

See also IF…. How many big names did they have playing all the IF’s… the only name you really needed was Ryan Reynolds… they could of really shrunk the budget they had… it could of been the difference between being a hit or not

 

[Casper Gutman]

Yep. It's unlikely streaming has minimal impact.

The question today often is, do I want to see this movie now or wait 1-3 months? In the past it was simply, do I want to see this movie?

The right movie can hit big, but a movie that's just "okay" is going to have more of an uphill battle than in the past.

Overall, nothing much has changed in terms of moviegoing. There are lots of armchair quarterbacks who just "knew" a movie would bomb and cannot fathom why certain movies were greenlit, but there have always been surprise hits and misses.

Who would have predicted Inside Out 2 of all things to be one of the biggest animated movies of all time?

Is Bill Hader a substantially bigger name than Tony Hale? Hale seems more suited to the role anyway.

 

[TP2000]

Box Office is in for this past weekend, and it was definitely Boffo! (Superstar Limo reference, may it RIP)

Inside Out 2 looks like it's going to easily get to $1 Billion globally! I can only imagine how many sighs of relief there have been lately in Emeryville over this much needed success, but what do you think the big bosses in Burbank will learn from this?

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[brideck]

I can only imagine how many sighs of relief there have been lately in Emeryville over this much needed success, but what do you think the big bosses in Burbank will learn from this?

I wonder what even is learnable from this. What on Earth happened in the zeitgeist to take it from a very respectable estimated $85m opening (estimated the Tuesday of release week, so that was based on pre-sales, buzz, etc. ex. https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...ing-weekend-projection-pixar-woes-1236032726/) to... well, this?

 

[Disney Irish]

I wonder what even is learnable from this. What on Earth happened in the zeitgeist to take it from a very respectable estimated $85m opening (estimated the Tuesday of release week, so that was based on pre-sales, buzz, etc. ex. https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...ing-weekend-projection-pixar-woes-1236032726/) to... well, this?

There isn't anything to learn from this in my opinion, other than just roll the dice and take a chance, its a lightening in a bottle moment. The audience is sporadic, especially post-pandemic. There is no sure fire way to predict anything anymore, not that there was reliably even in the before times.

I'm honestly wondering now if IO2 has even taken a bit of the oxygen away from DM4.

 

[Ghost93]

I wonder what even is learnable from this. What on Earth happened in the zeitgeist to take it from a very respectable estimated $85m opening (estimated the Tuesday of release week, so that was based on pre-sales, buzz, etc. ex. https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...ing-weekend-projection-pixar-woes-1236032726/) to... well, this?

It should be noted that DeSantis and Disney had settled their feud. DeSantis was pushing a lot of the hate against Disney to score some political points. Since his presidential bid failed and he's no longer going after the company, there's a lot less manufactured outraged against the company now. People may still whine about an individual product (like the Acolyte) but there's not a full-on assault against all aspects of the company anymore.

 

[Ghost93]

I'm honestly wondering now if IO2 has even taken a bit of the oxygen away from DM4.

Possibly.

I'm torn about DM4 at the box office. I don't care for the Despicable Me franchise at all and I outright DESPISE the minon characters and think they are woefully unfunny, but I want theaters to succeed and thrive. If DM4 being a hit is what it takes to keep theaters afloat through the summer, so be it.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

It should be noted that DeSantis and Disney had settled their feud. DeSantis was pushing a lot of the hate against Disney to score some political points. Since his presidential bid failed and he's no longer going after the company, there's a lot less manufactured outraged against the company now. People may still whine about an individual product (like the Acolyte) but there's not a full-on assault against all aspects of the company anymore.

Cue insistence that no such efforts to attack Disney existed...

 

[BrianLo]

DM4 opened quite well in a few International markets, so it may be a rising tide phenomenon.

But that franchise is certainly pushing the boundaries of have many ‘sequels’ the market will accept (5 in 14 years). So it’s not exactly sending the best message to the industry when it invariably does quite well.

 

[haveyoumetmark]

I wonder what even is learnable from this. What on Earth happened in the zeitgeist to take it from a very respectable estimated $85m opening (estimated the Tuesday of release week, so that was based on pre-sales, buzz, etc. ex. https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...ing-weekend-projection-pixar-woes-1236032726/) to... well, this?

Anxiety

 

[Disney Analyst]

There isn't anything to learn from this in my opinion, other than just roll the dice and take a chance, its a lightening in a bottle moment. The audience is sporadic, especially post-pandemic. There is no sure fire way to predict anything anymore, not that there was reliably even in the before times.

I'm honestly wondering now if IO2 has even taken a bit of the oxygen away from DM4.

This is personally how I feel. If a movie hits at the right time, goes viral / and or memeable, and is decent enough, it can go bonkers right now.

It seems sure things are out the window for the most part.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Disney Irish]

Not sure if someone brought this up before, but if IO2 keeps going not only will it surpass Incredibles 2 but it'll also do it faster. Incredibles 2 reached $1B in 46 days, IO2 looks to do it in less than half the time.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Not sure if someone brought this up before, but if IO2 keeps going not only will it surpass Incredibles 2 but it'll also do it faster. Incredibles 2 reached $1B in 46 days, IO2 looks to do it in less than half the time.

Been watching those milestones on mojo. Every tiered record has been better than the last.

 

[Ghost93]

Inside Out 2 looks like it's going to easily get to $1 Billion globally! I can only imagine how many sighs of relief there have been lately in Emeryville over this much needed success, but what do you think the big bosses in Burbank will learn from this?

I imagine the takeaways will be
1. Greenlight more sequels and prioritize existing franchises over original movies.
2. Lean into what people liked about the original franchise. Don't do a deconstruction (like in Indy 5 or Lightyear)
3. Don't send movies straight to Disney Plus (Soul, Luca, Turning Red), or give them limited theatrical windows (Encanto, Strange World)
4. No LGBT characters for awhile (I hate to say this as I want better gay representation, but I KNOW it's what's being discussed)
5. No discussion of periods or attempting to as authentic as possible in depicting the lives of teenagers. Being authentic to what teens are like (as in Turning Red) means angering many parents who prefer a more santized recreation of the teenage experience.
6. Don't fork over money to bring back talent who aren't major draws (such as Bill Hader and Mindy Kaling, whose absence didn't impact the movie at all)

 

[TP2000]

Now that overseas box office is in for Inside Out 2 from this past weekend, I just pulled together this nifty chart. It compares Inside Out 2 with the previous 3 Pixar sequels from the late 2010's, and I threw in Elemental and Lightyear as a recent comparison.

I find it fascinating to see how wildly successful Inside Out 2 already is compared to last summer's "hit!" Elemental that wasn't that much of a hit historically, and the global box office misery of Lightyear.

Inside Out 2 is currently tracking just below Incredibles 2 and nearly identical to Finding Dory, adjusted for inflation.

Movie Comparison: Inside Out 2 (2024) vs. Toy Story 4 (2019) vs. Incredibles 2 (2018) vs. Finding Dory (2016) vs. Lightyear (2022) vs. Elemental (2023)

Domestic box office comparison between Inside Out 2 (2024) and Toy Story 4 (2019) and Incredibles 2 (2018) and Finding Dory (2016) and Lightyear (2022) and Elemental (2023)

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

I imagine the takeaways will be
1. Greenlight more sequels and prioritize existing franchises over original movies.
2. Lean into what people liked about the original franchise. Don't do a deconstruction (like in Indy 5 or Lightyear)
3. Don't send movies straight to Disney Plus (Soul, Luca, Turning Red), or give them limited theatrical windows (Encanto, Strange World)
4. No LGBT characters for awhile (I hate to say this as I want better gay representation, but I KNOW it's what's being discussed)
5. No discussion of periods or attempting to as authentic as possible in depicting the lives of teenagers. Being authentic to what teens are like (as in Turning Red) means angering many parents who prefer a more santized recreation of the teenage experience.
6. Don't fork over money to bring back talent who aren't major draws (such as Bill Hader and Mindy Kaling, whose absence didn't impact the movie at all)

I would agree with you on all 6 points there. I think it's obvious now that both Pixar and WDAS will not be trying the gimmicks and "new things" or "authenticity" they tried the past few years that turned away global audiences.

That last one, #6, is something I think is a big one. I've been baffled by it in general. Why do you even need former SNL actors or actresses from last decade's sitcoms to do the voiceovers for this stuff? Just pick one of the roughly 250,000 struggling actors or actresses in LA or New York with talent and pay them a few hundred thousand to be the next voice of a heroine, or the singing frog, or loveable fairy godmother, or whatever.

And then get A.I. to fill in all the background voices and characters and you'd save yourself millions per animated film.