Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DKampy]

Estimated box office is out for this holiday weekend through Sunday. For Disney, it's a weekend story of theater counts really.

Poor Things dropped another 170 theaters, now down at 580 theatersView attachment 762918

Poor Things is still following The Favorite trajectory…I believe that film dropped to 560 screens or so before bumping up it’s screen count to over 1500 Oscar nomination week… and check out that hold for Poor Things despite losing some screens to a lot competition for wide releases this week it had the best hold of any film at the box office week over week

 

[brideck]

Poor Things is still following The Favorite trajectory…I believe that film dropped to 560 screens or so before bumping up it’s screen count to over 1500 Oscar nomination week… and check out that hold for Poor Things despite losing some screens to a lot competition for wide releases this week it had the best hold of any film at the box office week over week

The Favourite went down as low as 512 before nominations came out. It's almost as if certain people come into this thread without reading what's transpired since they were last here. Because if they had, they would already know that, and they probably would have also seen that I already posted the 4-day weekend projections earlier today. Paging Captain Redundant! Come in, Captain Redundant! Are you there?

 

[brideck]

Poor Things continues to track right in line with The Favourite, even potentially closing the release date gap a little this weekend with its continued strong performance (if the projections prove accurate). I've also circled the Oscar nominations bump that The Favourite got in red, so unbelievers can see what we're talking about.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The only marketing that I've personally seen has been pushing all 3 of the re-releases together, so I'd withhold any judgement on that front until the start of April, when they've all had their full run.

92 bucks a theater is 92 bucks (well Disney gets half of that) but let’s see what happens.

 

[vikescaper]

Why would anyone go to see Soul in the theaters when it's been on D+ for 2 years???

We wanted to see it in the theater because we didn’t give it enough chance when we watched it at home and kept getting distracted. We had tickets purchased but then our local AMC canceled the showtimes. We ended up seeing something else.

 

[Communicora]

All of Us Strangers is getting pushed heavily on tiktok (at least to me). I get promoted content featuring the two leads almost every time I open the app.

 

[Farerb]

I own Soul on 4K and regret buying it since I never watch it.

 

[_caleb]

We’re now seeing sporadic and haphazard successes alongside colossal failures. I think these are the death throes of the box office.

Anecdotal “well our local theater was full on Thursday when I went to see ______” should not be taken as indications that box office demand is coming back in any reliable way.

It’s not a matter of if, but when.

This is the same pattern we saw with movie rental stores. Theaters are struggling, and it has little correlation to how good a film is. People just aren’t interested in going to the theater like they used to.

Revenues are strong because prices are up. There was a post-pandemic bump because people wanted to get out and do something. So they went to the movies, remembered how much better it was to watch at home, and now they’re done.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

We’re now seeing sporadic and haphazard successes alongside colossal failures. I think these are the death throes of the box office.

Anecdotal “well our local theater was full on Thursday when I went to see ______” should not be taken as indications that box office demand is coming back in any reliable way.

It’s not a matter of if, but when.

This is the same pattern we saw with movie rental stores. Theaters are struggling, and it has little correlation to how good a film is. People just aren’t interested in going to the theater like they used to.

Revenues are strong because prices are up. There was a post-pandemic bump because people wanted to get out and do something. So they went to the movies, remembered how much better it was to watch at home, and now they’re done.

It’ll be curious to see if this is the death of theaters or just the downsizing, I think there’s enough demand they’ll survive for several more decades, just not as many of them. The days of the multiplex with 28 screens and 150 showings a day may turn into theaters with 8 screens and 50 showings a day, the studios will need to adjust their budgets for that scenario though.

 

[_caleb]

It’ll be curious to see if this is the death of theaters or just the downsizing, I think there’s enough demand they’ll survive for several more decades, just not as many of them. The days of the multiplex with 28 screens and 150 showings a day may turn into theaters with 8 screens and 50 showings a day, the studios will need to adjust their budgets for that scenario though.

Yes, but to me these are the death throes of what it was.

Some enterprising cinemas will find ways to hang on. But “let’s go to the movies” is going the way of “let’s go to the video game arcade” or event “let’s go to the mall.”

 

[brideck]

Poor Things continues to track right in line with The Favourite, even potentially closing the release date gap a little this weekend with its continued strong performance (if the projections prove accurate). I've also circled the Oscar nominations bump that The Favourite got in red, so unbelievers can see what we're talking about.

View attachment 762972

It should also go without saying that The Favourite made 2/3 of its money overseas, which makes sense as it and Poor Things are more or less European movies. The above chart is only for the US domestic market. So despite the massively premature and repeated insistence from some corners that Disney has burned millions of dollars on this (we'll ignore the fact that Searchlight isn't the soul production company, too), there is a long, long road ahead of it yet.

From Deadline yesterday:
"While we don’t have the full international weekend numbers for Searchlight’s Poor Things, the Venice Golden Lion winner continues to do great business. The global estimate (including domestic’s 4-day) is now $23.8M, of which $6.1M is from just six overseas markets. Notably this session, the Emma Stone-starrer bowed at No. 2 in the UK with $2M ($2.3M including previews). It also opened in Finland (No. 1) and Norway (No. 4); it posted the best opening weekend ever for a Yorgos Lanthimos film in both markets. In already opened markets, Poor Things held by +2% in Australia and -3% in Greece. The Greece cume to date ($1.7M) is already above the final total of The Favourite after just 14 days of release."

 

[brideck]

92 bucks a theater is 92 bucks (well Disney gets half of that) but let’s see what happens.

I'm not at all suggesting that any of these will do great guns at the box office, but I do think that Soul was the least likely of the 3 to move the needle with the movie-going public. Unless I'm missing something on the release calendar, I'd guess that Turning Red probably has the best shot at doing anything, based on a combination of its streaming popularity and what the other options in theaters will be at its release.

 

[SpectreJordan]

What's your thought on when the Oscar bump will increase Poor Things 750 theater count? For Golden Globes Weekend last weekend it lost 50 theaters to celebrate its GG nominations. The moment Oscar noms are announced later this month, do you expect Poor Things to add theaters that week? Or does that not happen until the actual Oscars show airs that very few people watch any more?

Poor Things had a budget of $35 Million. With a guess at a miniscule marketing budget of $15 Million, that means that with Poor Things current box office of $16 Million, it's still about $40 Million in the hole.

The Poor Things example, which is perfect really, seems rather wasteful when none of the USA the parks still don't have a night parade, and no new ride is under construction on either coast. Will Sidekick Tightpants get away with another presentation at D23 Expo VISA The Ultimate Disney Fan Event this summer showing vague and unfunded blue sky concepts shown from above through hazy clouds while the studios vaporize untold millions of dollars? I really, really hope not.

Poor Things vaporized a small pile of cash, but please enjoy this hazy vague artwork of unfunded projects instead...

An indie movie isn't hurting Disney. Massive bombs like Ant-Man 3, Wish, The Marvels, Indy 5 & Little Mermaid are. They need to scale back on that stuff. Focus on quality & making their movies events again. They really only need 1 blockbuster per quarter, maybe 2 in the summer.

 

[BuddyThomas]

An indie movie isn't hurting Disney. Massive bombs like Ant-Man 3, Wish, The Marvels, Indy 5 & Little Mermaid are. They need to scale back on that stuff. Focus on quality & making their movies events again. They really only need 1 blockbuster per quarter, maybe 2 in the summer.

Except that The Little Mermaid was not a “massive bomb”.

 

[DisneyHead123]

I’m curious what the thinking was in putting these movies back in theaters. I.e., were they expecting them to make a decent amount of money? Or was it more to make the creatives involved happy? Or to act as a placeholder so that people don’t get used to Disney having nothing in theaters? Hard to say if the move was a success or not as I’m not clear on the intent behind it.

 

[brideck]

I’m curious what the thinking was in putting these movies back in theaters. I.e., were they expecting them to make a decent amount of money? Or was it more to make the creatives involved happy? Or to act as a placeholder so that people don’t get used to Disney having nothing in theaters? Hard to say if the move was a success or not as I’m not clear on the intent behind it.

I don't know what the internal projections might have been, but it almost just feels like an experiment to see if releases like this might net anything worthwhile. They clearly didn't have a hard and fast number of guaranteed theaters that they contracted for Soul -- during the presale period I saw it listed in way more theaters than it ultimately ended up in and someone was reporting just upthread that their showing was outright canceled on them this weekend.

 

[TP2000]

Why would anyone go to see Soul in the theaters when it's been on D+ for 2 years???

According to Pixar chief Pete Docter, there's a manhole scene that you just can't experience until you've seen it on the big screen. From a Disney press release on these three films theater re-release;

"How does the theatrical experience add to the enjoyment of these films? Let’s use Soul as an example.

If you remember the film, our main character Joe falls through a manhole and he’s in this weird abstract space and on your screen, it looks cool. However, on a big screen in a theater, it takes up the whole wall, and you’re immersed into this weird world. Then there’s the sound design, too… When you hear it all around you, it is just a different beast. It’s amazing."

Pixar's Pete Docter on Why He’s Excited for 'Soul,' 'Luca,' and 'Turning Red' to Hit Theaters - The Walt Disney Company

Three films from Disney and Pixar are coming to theaters for the first time ever, and Pixar's Pete Docter is eager for fans to see them in a new way.

thewaltdisneycompany.com

I’m curious what the thinking was in putting these movies back in theaters. I.e., were they expecting them to make a decent amount of money? Or was it more to make the creatives involved happy? Or to act as a placeholder so that people don’t get used to Disney having nothing in theaters? Hard to say if the move was a success or not as I’m not clear on the intent behind it.

By debuting down in 21st place on a holiday weekend with 1,350 theaters, the re-release of Soul will lose Pixar a small bundle of cash. It will be interesting to see if things pick up for Luca and Turning Red; Will they increase the marketing budget for the next two? Decrease the theater counts? Scrap the whole plan?

I'm of the opinion this strategy was approved partially because it was seen as an internal morale boost for Pixar employees, although that morale boost was sabotaged by announcing big layoffs in Emeryville the day before Soul opened in theaters to total silence from the marketplace.

Talk about kicking them when they're down. This hasn't been a happy holiday weekend for the Pixar crew, I imagine.

 

[TP2000]

Happy birthday to Reverend King! Because it's a federal holiday today, The Numbers site has released a first pass at estimated box office for today, Monday the 15th.

Not much has changed in the rankings for Burbank's offerings. Soul ends its 4 day holiday weekend debut with a total of $560,000 from 1,350 theaters. That can't be what Emeryville was hoping for this weekend, can it?

The Impact of Disney's "Soul" on Box Office Revenues and Its Implications for Future Pixar Releases - VeerOne

Disney's decision to release "Soul" straight to streaming during the pandemic significantly affected its box office performance, with the film grossing a mod...

bnnbreaking.com

Disney's Pixar To Undergo Layoffs Amid Box Office Woes And Disney+ Push To Profitability

Following a report of layoffs, Pixar Animation Studios has confirmed the company will indeed undergo layoffs later this year. The exact number of employees impacted is still to be determined.

toonado.com

 

[Willmark]

What's your thought on when the Oscar bump will increase Poor Things 750 theater count? For Golden Globes Weekend last weekend it lost 50 theaters to celebrate its GG nominations. The moment Oscar noms are announced later this month, do you expect Poor Things to add theaters that week? Or does that not happen until the actual Oscars show airs that very few people watch any more?

Poor Things had a budget of $35 Million. With a guess at a miniscule marketing budget of $15 Million, that means that with Poor Things current box office of $16 Million, it's still about $40 Million in the hole.

The Poor Things example, which is perfect really, seems rather wasteful when none of the USA the parks still don't have a night parade, and no new ride is under construction on either coast. Will Sidekick Tightpants get away with another presentation at D23 Expo VISA The Ultimate Disney Fan Event this summer showing vague and unfunded blue sky concepts shown from above through hazy clouds while the studios vaporize untold millions of dollars? I really, really hope not.

Poor Things vaporized a small pile of cash, but please enjoy this hazy vague artwork of unfunded projects instead...

No, it’s time for the claiming of “the Oscars are the 2nd most watched TV event of the year!”

 

[DisneyHead123]

I don't know what the internal projections might have been, but it almost just feels like an experiment to see if releases like this might net anything worthwhile. They clearly didn't have a hard and fast number of guaranteed theaters that they contracted for Soul -- during the presale period I saw it listed in way more theaters than it ultimately ended up in and someone was reporting just upthread that their showing was outright canceled on them this weekend.

If that’s the case then the decision to go with such recent releases is puzzling… I’ve said before I think an older classic like Fantasia would have worked much better.