Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[flynnibus]

But Hollywood is putting out fewer movies overall, so it seems like theaters are still going to be beholden to studios if they want variety of content.

But there is a big difference between being handcuffed and being dependent

 

[erasure fan1]

I didn't say your question was off base. I was asking what they'd replace the films with. Theaters are certainly entitled to negotiate, and I agree it seems like Disney's position to negotiate now is weaker than it has been.

But Hollywood is putting out fewer movies overall, so it seems like theaters are still going to be beholden to studios if they want variety of content.

It really is about flexibility. Could they have used extra theaters for Swift or Beyonce if needed? That's more rhetorical as I didn't look to see if those really crossed over with a Disney release. But I have a feeling that the whole concert film trend is only going to get bigger in the coming years. So why risk losing big dollars if another major artist is doing it? Or if there is a big standout hit running at the same time? If the theaters were smart, nows the time to band together and get more favorable terms in my opinion. And remember, it's not just about theater count. It's about the price split and length of that split. If Disney won't budge at theater count, they could say fine, bring it to a 50/50 split all the time then. Or something similar.

 

[_caleb]

It really is about flexibility. Could they have used extra theaters for Swift or Beyonce if needed? That's more rhetorical as I didn't look to see if those really crossed over with a Disney release. But I have a feeling that the whole concert film trend is only going to get bigger in the coming years. So why risk losing big dollars if another major artist is doing it? Or if there is a big standout hit running at the same time? If the theaters were smart, nows the time to band together and get more favorable terms in my opinion. And remember, it's not just about theater count. It's about the price split and length of that split. If Disney won't budge at theater count, they could say fine, bring it to a 50/50 split all the time then. Or something similar.

Me, too. I think concerts are going to continue to be strong draws.

 

[MrPromey]

I didn't say your question was off base. I was asking what they'd replace the films with. Theaters are certainly entitled to negotiate, and I agree it seems like Disney's position to negotiate now is weaker than it has been.

But Hollywood is putting out fewer movies overall, so it seems like theaters are still going to be beholden to studios if they want variety of content.

I'd say, anything they want.

More independent films that aren't able to find wide release.*

Maybe they re-run $5 classics to get people in and buying concessions if there's nothing else worth it.

Maybe they still use some of those extra screens to run those Disney movies. The difference would be, they'd have more leeway to make that choice.

*Yeah, these tend to not blow the doors off the box office but when it's between a quater-full theater to one of those with terms more favorable to the theater or running an empty theater screening that overlaps with another of the same movie that also isn't very full, maybe that's a better deal for all concerned?

 

[Disney Irish]

I think it'll depend on who the artist is, but in my opinion I don't think concert films are going to make a huge surge at the box office. There will be a handful that will attempt it in the future to varying results.

We'll see what the rest of the weekend does, but Beyonce just opened ~1/3 less than Taylor. Heck her opening Friday is less than Bieber did back in 2011, even without adjusting for inflation.

As for theaters switching out Wish for any other film. If Beyonce isn't filling theaters and no other film is either, there isn't anything new to switch Wish out with that would bring in more movie goers. So they'll continue to play Wish with at least some seats filled as they just want to sell more popcorn, they don't care what movie is playing.

Also it's looking like family films might not be the huge draw this holiday season as in previous years. Its still a couple weeks out, but Migration is so far tracking to open soft too. It may end up being Illumination's lowest opening outside of the Sing and Hop franchises.

 

[MrPromey]

... Its still a couple weeks out, but Migration is so far tracking to open soft too. It may end up being Illumination's lowest opening outside of the Sing and Hop franchises.

I mean, with any luck, right?

 

[erasure fan1]

If Beyonce isn't filling theaters and no other film is either, there isn't anything to switch Wish out with that would bring in more movie goers. So they'll continue to play Wish with at least some seats filled as they just want to sell more popcorn, they don't care what movie is playing.

Again though, that isn't really the point of what I had originally said. It's about the theaters flexibility. If they needed to adjust right now, they can't. If the Disney film is what will bring in more people, great they'll keep playing it. But it's unfavorable for the theaters right now. So logic says, try to even things out a bit while Disney isn't having the best of luck.

 

[TsWade2]

Darn Troll Sequel movie! They ruined Wish's chance at the box office and I just got back seeing and loved it! I guess it's the en........ugh! I was doing good, but I keep saying it's the end of Disney animation crap! I guess Disney will never get fixed! The Disney's 100th anniversary is ruined and it'll be ruined again on Mickey Mouse's 100th anniversary.

 

[celluloid]

Darn Troll Sequel movie! They ruined Wish's chance at the box office and I just got back seeing and loved it! I guess it's the en........ugh! I was doing good, but I keep saying it's the end of Disney animation crap! I guess Disney will never get fixed! The Disney's 100th anniversary is ruined and it'll be ruined again on Mickey Mouse's 100th anniversary.

You should darn a lot of movies. It is not just Trolls 3(which was out the week before Wish's Thanksgiving bomb and my still match or outgross Wish this weekend)

You should also blame the Napoleon Rated R movie that not many wanted to see and The Hunger Games Spinoff that has held on very well to the top box office spots, even at number 3 now with the new releases this weekend.

I am glad you liked it.

As for the worry. Bob also ruined Disney's 50th before he dipped out the lat time. So, like, consistency in ruining anniversaries should not be shocking. Crazy 100 years was quite the bust of a the year.

It will take three or so years for Disney brand to rebuild if they want it to. Hold on and enjoy the bombs that you have now, or watch older movies if those stops and hold out for a better time once they figure it out.

 

[Disney Irish]

Again though, that isn't really the point of what I had originally said. It's about the theaters flexibility. If they needed to adjust right now, they can't. If the Disney film is what will bring in more people, great they'll keep playing it. But it's unfavorable for the theaters right now. So logic says, try to even things out a bit while Disney isn't having the best of luck.

Do we even know for a fact that theaters are forced to play Wish at this time, or is that just an assumption based on the number of theaters still playing it?

We don't know the contractual obligations set by studios, especially by Disney, at this point. We know there was a renegotiation back a couple years ago post-pandemic with regards to the theatrical window, but we don't know the terms. But what was known at the time is that theaters were fighting for a longer window, so they may have actually done this to themselves.

Either way, even if they had a choice, there isn't much choice available at this time.

 

[TP2000]

Darn Troll Sequel movie! They ruined Wish's chance at the box office and I just got back seeing and loved it! I guess it's the en........ugh! I was doing good, but I keep saying it's the end of Disney animation crap! I guess Disney will never get fixed! The Disney's 100th anniversary is ruined and it'll be ruined again on Mickey Mouse's 100th anniversary.

Cheer up, young man. It's always darkest before the dawn. Mickey's 100th is in 2028, right? That's four years. I have faith that a year from now the executive leadership of the Walt Disney Company will look a bit different, and will certainly be acting differently and making different decisions even if Bob gets to stay as a figurehead. (Maybe he could "retire" but actually just stay on as an "advisor" who trash talks his chosen replacement at Bel Air dinner parties?)

I'm reminded of Disneyland's 50th Anniversary, which was universally praised and fabulously successful. Far more successful and far more genuine and heartfelt than whatever the hell that was for WDW's 50th. But just a few years before the 50th Disneyland was in horrible shape and the future looked dim; Pressler and Cynthia Harriss were firmly in control and running the place into the ground, the park looked dingy and tired, and a series of horrific accidents that were all the fault of Disneyland executives cost-cutting and culture-slashing killed several guests, seriously injured several more, and even maimed a CM who had to relearn how to walk with prosthetics so she could walk down the aisle at her wedding.

It was a tragic era, peeling paint and wailing ambulances and all.

But suddenly in late 2002 Cynthia left "to spend more time with family" as a childless single woman, and a new team was brought in with Matt Ouimet at the helm. It was a lot of work and several years of massive refurbishments and culture change (just going back to the original Pre-Pressler culture that Walt invented), but it worked. The Disneyland Golden Anniversary kicked off on May 5th, 2005 (funny how you remember dates like that), the park sparkled like it never had before and the entire 50th anniversary was a financial and emotional success, and the rest is history.

The same thing could happen on a much larger scaled for the entirety of The Walt Disney Company. God knows it certainly needs it, and not just because of their disastrous box office results.

 

[TsWade2]

Cheer up, young man. It's always darkest before the dawn. Mickey's 100th is in 2028, right? That's four years. I have faith that a year from now the executive leadership of the Walt Disney Company will look a bit different, and will certainly be acting differently and making different decisions even if Bob gets to stay as a figurehead. (Maybe he could "retire" but actually just stay on as an "advisor" who trash talks his chosen replacement at Bel Air dinner parties?)

I'm reminded of Disneyland's 50th Anniversary, which was universally praised and fabulously successful. Far more successful and far more genuine and heartfelt than whatever the hell that was for WDW's 50th. But just a few years before the 50th Disneyland was in horrible shape and the future looked dim; Pressler and Cynthia Harriss were firmly in control and running the place into the ground, the park looked dingy and tired, and a series of horrific accidents that were all the fault of Disneyland executives cost-cutting and culture-slashing killed several guests, seriously injured several more, and even maimed a CM who had to relearn how to walk with prosthetics so she could walk down the aisle at her wedding.

It was a tragic era, peeling paint and wailing ambulances and all.

But suddenly in late 2002 Cynthia left "to spend more time with family" as a childless single woman, and a new team was brought in with Matt Ouimet at the helm. It was a lot of work and several years of massive refurbishments and culture change (just going back to the original Pre-Pressler culture that Walt invented), but it worked. The Disneyland Golden Anniversary kicked off on May 5th, 2005 (funny how you remember dates like that), the park sparkled like it never had before and the entire 50th anniversary was a financial and emotional success, and the rest is history.

The same thing could happen on a much larger scaled for the entirety of The Walt Disney Company. God knows it certainly needs it, and not just because of their disastrous box office results.

For a moment there I thought you're the one is presenting depressing news! But, thanks for a clarification.

 

[flynnibus]

think it'll depend on who the artist is, but in my opinion I don't think concert films are going to make a huge surge at the box office. There will be a handful that will attempt it in the future to varying results

They are a form of ‘event’ showings though. For instance Alamo does this a lot where they might do some nostalgia set of films… or a showing combined with other elements. My point being these are examples of things theaters can do besides just hang on first runs that die within two weeks while being crippled with old splits.

Swift’s concert film was significant in that it was done “outside the system”… self funded and negotiated with amc directly for distribution.

Theaters continue to dable in live event simucasts, etc. i think its good the theaters have this diversity of events and productions to try to breakup or workaround the notion that people don’t like the theater experience anymore.

We don’t have bad audiences around me typically… but the food prices are hard to stomach except for things I really want to see

 

[TP2000]

For perspective, with this disastrous opening and dropoff for Wish, it will not match the domestic box office of post-pandemic animated films such as Mario, Minions:Rise of Gru, The Bad Guys, Puss in Boots 2, Spider-Verse 2, Sing 2, Turtles, or even Trolls 3.

I haven't heard of some of those movies, but let's do it! I love a good look at hard data and real-world financials.

As it's still 15 minutes before the cocktail hour Mountain Standard Time, my cocktail napkins are fresh and bone dry so the math shouldn't be too hard to pencil out. But just look how much money Disney comparatively wastes on budgets!

Super Mario Bros. made about $480 Million profit, The Bad Guys made about $25 Million profit, Puss In Boots made about $95 Million profit, Turtles lost about $15 Million, and Minions made about $350 Million profit.

Wish looks like it might not even break $100 Million globally. If it does get to $100 Million at the global box office, Wish will have lost around $250 Million for Disney. Ouch.

 

[Disney Irish]

They are a form of ‘event’ showings though. For instance Alamo does this a lot where they might do some nostalgia set of films… or a showing combined with other elements. My point being these are examples of things theaters can do besides just hang on first runs that die within two weeks while being crippled with old splits.

Swift’s concert film was significant in that it was done “outside the system”… self funded and negotiated with amc directly for distribution.

Theaters continue to dable in live event simucasts, etc. i think its good the theaters have this diversity of events and productions to try to breakup or workaround the notion that people don’t like the theater experience anymore.

We don’t have bad audiences around me typically… but the food prices are hard to stomach except for things I really want to see

I don't disagree with you, what I was saying is that I just don't think we're going to see a bunch of artists all of a sudden start releasing concert films.

What I do see happening is sort of what you're alluding to. That in the long run theaters will turn into more boutique venues where they show these event offerings. I know many of the theaters around me have started doing that where they offer table service and make it a "night out" rather than just going to see a movie. Basically harkening back to the golden age of theaters.

 

[_caleb]

I'd say, anything they want.

More independent films that aren't able to find wide release.*

Maybe they re-run $5 classics to get people in and buying concessions if there's nothing else worth it.

Maybe they still use some of those extra screens to run those Disney movies. The difference would be, they'd have more leeway to make that choice.

*Yeah, these tend to not blow the doors off the box office but when it's between a quater-full theater to one of those with terms more favorable to the theater or running an empty theater screening that overlaps with another of the same movie that also isn't very full, maybe that's a better deal for all concerned?

I agree. While I don't think studios like Disney are going to abandon box office releases anytime soon, it seems like it's still the general trend we're seeing in the industry. I mean, DTC is literally cutting out the middlemen like cable companies and movie theaters.

But while theatergoing is on the decline, I think theaters will continue to lean into event-based entertainment, like live-streamed concerts, worship events, singalong movie showings, sports events that work around television blackouts, etc.

I like the idea of both private and public themed party showings, classic film festivals, etc.

Theaters aren't going down without a fight, but I still think Disney has all these sorts of things in mind for D+.

 

[TsWade2]

I agree. While I don't think studios like Disney are going to abandon box office releases anytime soon, it seems like it's still the general trend we're seeing in the industry. I mean, DTC is literally cutting out the middlemen like cable companies and movie theaters.

But while theatergoing is on the decline, I think theaters will continue to lean into event-based entertainment, like live-streamed concerts, worship events, singalong movie showings, sports events that work around television blackouts, etc.

I like the idea of both private and public themed party showings, classic film festivals, etc.

Theaters aren't going down without a fight, but I still think Disney has all these sorts of things in mind for D+.

I agree. To me, the box office is a dead art form! I think Wish will do much much much better and more popular on Disney+. I mean after all, I've heard Sleeping Beauty was a flop at the box office, but after a few re-releases in theaters, it became a huge classic. If Encanto can do well at Disney+, so can Wish!

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I wouldn't be surprised to see more concert films. Many concerts have been filmed in the past for a home video/TV release, not intended for theatrical.

If you're filming it regardless, there's no downside to adding a theatrical release to the mix.

Even if filming a concert wasn't planned, it can't be that expensive can it? The show is already staged. The bulk of the costs are already spent. How much does it cost to bring it some cameras and equipment?

 

[flynnibus]

I wouldn't be surprised to see more concert films. Many concerts have been filmed in the past for a home video/TV release, not intended for theatrical.

If you're filming it regardless, there's no downside to adding a theatrical release to the mix.

Even if filming a concert wasn't planned, it can't be that expensive can it? The show is already staged. The bulk of the costs are already spent. How much does it cost to bring it some cameras and equipment?

Taylor Swift's was 10-20M by most accounts. Small by film standards... still a big expense.

The challenge for most is exactly like films.. 'important enough to want to pay for it..'. When it's comparable to a concert people are paying thousands to go see... a $15 ticket is pretty easy. But when you're just ... Guns n Roses... its hard to get the numbers the same as the swifties. Metallica did a simulcast of their new album release as a unique experience... lots of ideas that can be done if you have the theaters interested (IMO).

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Finally.