Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It didn't succeed in the theaters, but truth be told Disney will find a way to make this one successful post-theatrical. And you know it.

They’ll schlep product.

I used the princess and the frog as the most applicable example. Wasn’t a huge BO success…probably didn’t cover its budget…but they stuck with it over time and pushed the IP

I’m sure they were hoping more for frozen or Moana…the ones that never seem to go away from your local retailer

 

[flynnibus]

And yet ticket sales are still down 21% from 2019 levels. And overall tickets sold have been on a downward trend for years.

And still represent BILLIONS in revenue. BILLIONS the studios have not figured out how to replace yet. So yes, they do need them

 

[Disney Irish]

They’ll schlep product.

I used the princess and the frog as the most applicable example. Wasn’t a huge BO success…probably didn’t cover its budget…but they stuck with it over time and pushed the IP

I’m sure they were hoping more for frozen or Moana…the ones that never seem to go away from your local retailer

I agree they likely were hoping for a Frozen level BO. And that is where this conversation becomes disingenuous about TLM. Because then that indicates its successful overall if they can continue to make revenue off of it to the point of it being profitable, like PatF.

A true box office loser is going to make zero post-theatrical, like Lone Ranger and Carter (those were true flops).

 

[Disney Irish]

And still represent BILLIONS in revenue. BILLIONS the studios have not figured out how to replace yet. So yes, they do need them

They need them in the short term, that is the key.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I agree they likely were hoping for a Frozen level BO. And that is where this conversation becomes disingenuous about TLM. Because then that indicates its successful overall if they can continue to make revenue off of it to the point of it being profitable, like PatF.

A true box office loser is going to make zero post-theatrical, like Lone Ranger and Carter (those were true flops).

We know it didn’t succeed in the theater…

Can a live action “grow legs” and lead to ancillary sales for years in the high profit realms?

Unknown.

I’d say “yes”…but you really didn’t see that with BATB and lion king…they reverted back to the animated versions.

It’s possible but not entirely “likely”

The most disingenuous part about this has been trying to skirt that it wasn’t well received in totality at the box office. It wasn’t…not enough people saw it. Disney should evaluate that at the top of the list, identify the shortcomings, and attempt to fix it.

Public company. It’s that simple - really.

 

[Disney Irish]

We know it didn’t succeed in the theater…

Can a live action “grow legs” and lead to ancillary sales for years in the high profit realms?

Unknown.

I’d say “yes”…but you really didn’t see that with BATB and lion king…they reverted back to the animated versions.

It’s possible but not entirely “likely”

The most disingenuous part about this has been trying to skirt that it wasn’t well received in totality at the box office. It wasn’t…not enough people saw it. Disney should evaluate that at the top of the list, identify the shortcomings, and attempt to fix it.

Box office is the not only measure of success, and that is what a bunch of us have been trying to say. Sure its "a" measure, but not the only measure.

Again taking PatF as an example you brought up, yes that wasn't successful at the box office. But it has found success long after its theatrical run, so much so that I think it pretty much erases that box office "stink".

TLM will most likely enjoy that same post-theatrical success, well because its the TLM and Disney will continue to "schlep product" as you said.

Now other films I agree are less likely to have that same post-theatrical success. And those are the films that Disney will need to surely look inward and correct.

Public company. It’s that simple - really.

And that is why, as I've mentioned in threads previously, I wouldn't be opposed with Disney going private. But that is a different conversation.

 

[Trauma]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE

This week's report takes an early look at box office trajectories for the seventh installment of the Mission: Impossible film franchise.

www.boxofficepro.com

Looks like maybe $800 million. Normally that would be fine but the budget for this film is even above TLM level.

I don’t think this has the draw of Top Gun.

Interesting to see how this turns out.

 

[tcool123]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE

This week's report takes an early look at box office trajectories for the seventh installment of the Mission: Impossible film franchise.

www.boxofficepro.com

Looks like maybe $800 million. Normally that would be fine but the budget for this film is even above TLM level.

I don’t think this has the draw of Top Gun.

Interesting to see how this turns out.

In more recent articles from this month it has begun to track lower as well.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: NINJA TURTLES: MUTANT MAYHEM and MEG 2 Early Prospects; BARBIE Tracking Soars

This week's update welcomes the addition of August's first major releases: The Meg 2: The Trench and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.

www.boxofficepro.com

You can find it in the chart

 

[Disney Irish]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE

This week's report takes an early look at box office trajectories for the seventh installment of the Mission: Impossible film franchise.

www.boxofficepro.com

Looks like maybe $800 million. Normally that would be fine but the budget for this film is even above TLM level.

I don’t think this has the draw of Top Gun.

Interesting to see how this turns out.

Not to mention that it loses its premium screens only a week after release, which hurts its BO. Yeah I didn't think this one had the same draw as Maverick, none of the MI movies have done over $700M.

 

[Disney Irish]

In more recent articles from this month it has begun to track lower as well.

Long Range Box Office Forecast: NINJA TURTLES: MUTANT MAYHEM and MEG 2 Early Prospects; BARBIE Tracking Soars

This week's update welcomes the addition of August's first major releases: The Meg 2: The Trench and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.

www.boxofficepro.com

You can find it in the chart

Yep, but Barbie has come up which is good for those that want that film to do well. But I still think the overseas on that one is going to drag it down, similar to TLM.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Yep, but Barbie has come up which is good for those that want that film to do well. But I still think the overseas on that one is going to drag it down, similar to TLM.

Barbenheimer Explained: Yes, People Really Are Making Oppenheimer & Barbie a Double Feature

When you think of pink, is it the fun cotton-candy kind that colors the sunset over Barbie’s Malibu skies? Or is it the hue that glows like a haunting pall over the blasted aftermath of a nuclear-devastated landscape? For moviegoers this month, that won’t just be a fanciful mental exercise. Both...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Disney Analyst]

Long Range Box Office Forecast: MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING PART ONE

This week's report takes an early look at box office trajectories for the seventh installment of the Mission: Impossible film franchise.

www.boxofficepro.com

Looks like maybe $800 million. Normally that would be fine but the budget for this film is even above TLM level.

I don’t think this has the draw of Top Gun.

Interesting to see how this turns out.

While I expect 2023 to be higher than 2022 in terms of box office, mostly due to a more packed calendar, I don't think this will be a summer for the ages.

It seems many films are not going to make their money back.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Barbenheimer Explained: Yes, People Really Are Making Oppenheimer & Barbie a Double Feature

When you think of pink, is it the fun cotton-candy kind that colors the sunset over Barbie’s Malibu skies? Or is it the hue that glows like a haunting pall over the blasted aftermath of a nuclear-devastated landscape? For moviegoers this month, that won’t just be a fanciful mental exercise. Both...

www.yahoo.com

It's kind of odd that this is such a durable story. It's not as though the intended audiences for the two features are that different - they're both firmly upper-middle-brow pop. It's not like a double feature of, say, Fast X and Moonlight.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Box office is the not only measure of success, and that is what a bunch of us have been trying to say. Sure its "a" measure, but not the only measure.

Again taking PatF as an example you brought up, yes that wasn't successful at the box office. But it has found success long after its theatrical run, so much so that I think it pretty much erases that box office "stink".

TLM will most likely enjoy that same post-theatrical success, well because its the TLM and Disney will continue to "schlep product" as you said.

Now other films I agree are less likely to have that same post-theatrical success. And those are the films that Disney will need to surely look inward and correct.

You’re taking a huge leap here…but we shall see.
If it does well after the write down - and yes I’m gonna say it until we all get on board 101% that it is one - then it’s a “ah hah!” Moment

If not…it just gets forgotten.

But we shall see.

And that is why, as I've mentioned in threads previously, I wouldn't be opposed with Disney going private. But that is a different conversation.

101% agree. Though not for more completely silly and insulting live action remakes…

I’ve said they can only be Disney private for many years…back to my previous engagement on the DIS

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

While I expect 2023 to be higher than 2022 in terms of box office, mostly due to a more packed calendar, I don't think this will be a summer for the ages.

It seems many films are not going to make their money back.

Honestly…there are no good movies as it stands.

Barbie Is gonna WAY over perform…is my bet.

But not a lot of draw.

I don’t see MI movies in the theater…but it’s hard saying no to Ms. Atwell

 

[Disney Analyst]

Honestly…there are no good movies as it stands.

Barbie Is gonna WAY over perform…is my bet.

But not a lot of draw.

I don’t see MI movies in the theater…but it’s hard saying no to Ms. Atwell

Barbie looks fun, so I certainly wish it to succeed.

I am hopeful for Wish.

 

[BuddyThomas]

It's kind of odd that this is such a durable story. It's not as though the intended audiences for the two features are that different - they're both firmly upper-middle-brow pop. It's not like a double feature of, say Fast X and Moonlight.

I would actually do it, but Oppenheimer is 3 hours long and Barbie is nearly 2. I’m not sitting 5 hours in a theatre (plus probably 30 minutes of previews), but I think the concept is hysterical.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Barbie looks fun, so I certainly wish it to succeed.

I am hopeful for Wish.

Yeah that should do well. Forgot about that. When’s the release?

 

[Disney Analyst]

Yeah that should do well. Forgot about that. When’s the release?

November I believe - following the usual big animated release period, assuming around American Thanksgiving?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

November I believe - following the usual big animated release period, assuming around American Thanksgiving?

Right…but not a summer movie