Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

Got it. And as I understand it, and you've been patient enough to remind me a few times when I forget, the dividing by two the box office tally compared to the 2.5x production budget accounts for future Disney+ sales in future fiscal years. Probably a five year outward look, if I were to guess. Right?

So, using a total bomb example; Rachel Zegler's Snow White cost $270 Million to produce which if you times that by 2.5 gets you $675 Million, and then it brought in only $206 Million in global box office for a total loss of $469 Million in 2025. But assuming it creates future revenue and downloads for the next few fiscal years, will ultimately only have lost Burbank half of that $469 Million and thus creates a $235 Million loss in this current year before all the Disney+ profits come in later this decade?

Just wanting to clarify I finally got it into my pea sized brain correctly. Plus, I've had three S'mores and a healthy nightcap.

Yup, the calculation is right! Although the timeframe is generally going to be more like 18-24months for the vast majority of post theatrical. After that window they’ve captured like 95% of PVOD, Home and like 70-80% of streaming.

Mostly because it’s front loaded. Paid VOD and home video will all have mostly played out within the first six months and while they continue to amortize movies over longer windows, it is also front loaded and not spread out very well. Like a long box office run.

The rare thing like Moana or Encanto will bring in big cash years down the road in an atypical way. Which Snow absolutely isn’t. Your estimations are usually off by like 50 million or so. It’s not really a lot, but it obviously makes the threshold to break even lower than like 100M or so. 50M also adds up when we talk about like 10-12 films annually.

 

[BrianLo]

So, I take it that means you have no idea, and that Mr. Gunn refuses to admit publicly, what the breakeven point was for his $225 Million Superman movie. Got it.



Is there any ability within you to have some fun? To realize this is all just a lark? To maybe relax a bit, and have an evening drink or make a fresh S'more over the August coals, and laugh just a little?



I can use the Metric system, if you aren't able to do that math yourself. I've had three S'mores tonight, after all!

That Metric system lacks a bit of nuance, as the overseas box office take is notably less than the domestic take for American studios in real life, but the Metric system doesn't take that into account in this increasingly global business and thus the domestic/overseas data gets dumbed down to a blanket 50% of box office. But if dumbing it down and removing global financial nuance makes you happy...

Burbank 2025 Box Office So Far During The Dog Days O' Summer, Metric Version (2.5x Production Minus Global Box Office, Divided By Two For Future Disney+ Profit Arriving In 2026-2031, I Think)

Captain America 4: $180 Production, $414 Global Box Office = $18 Million Loss
The Amateur: $60 Production, $96 Global Box Office = $27 Million Loss
Rachel Zegler's Snow White: $270 Production, $206 Global Box Office = $235 Million Loss, Oof!
Thunderbolts: $180 Production, = $34 Million Loss
Lilo & Stitch: $100 Production, $1,028 Global Box Office = $389 Million Profit
Elio: $150 Production, $75 Marketing, $148 Global Box Office = $114 Million Loss
The Fantastic Four: $200 Production, $435 Global Box Office = $33 Million Loss & Narrowing
Freakier Friday: $42 Production, $44 Global Box Office = $31 Million Loss & Narrowing

2025 Burbank Box Office So Far During The Dog Days O' Summer = $103 Million Loss & Narrowing

Even using the Metric System, Burbank has lost over $100 Million so far this year and needs to send another muffin basket over the hill to Ridgeback Ranch for saving Fiscal '25 with their Lilo & Stitch blockbuster done on the cheap.

Looks right to me. And FYI I personally have no issue with the splits. I just was trying to keep it as simple as possible. Particularly if a movie has a really weird split at the end outside of a 40:60-60:40 domestic:International ratio it becomes very relevant.

Disney through June has fully absorbed the costs (those hit when the movie hits) of everything including Elio and is +132M. The discrepancy lies in Moana, Mufasa and broadway doing a bit of cover up. I suspect Q3 should be positive as Fantastic Four and Freakier are going to mostly break even within this quarter.

For the record the goal is generally to do better. Which could still be in the cards if we have three mega hits at year end instead of one.

 

[TalkingHead]

Pretty amazing that Disney could’ve possibly had the inside track on their own cool youngish horror auteur with Cregger since Barbarian was a Fox production (or release? not sure which). They didn’t release that film on disc, either, although he begged them to so it doesn’t seem like they saw value in his work.

Strange for a company that really needs to be thinking about the next big thing.

 

[Tha Realest]

Pretty amazing that Disney could’ve possibly had the inside track on their own cool youngish horror auteur with Cregger since Barbarian was a Fox production (or release? not sure which). They didn’t release that film on disc, either, although he begged them to so it doesn’t seem like they saw value in his work.

Strange for a company that really needs to be thinking about the next big thing.

It’s a fatigued genre.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

Barring a box office miracle or a DVD/Disney+ movement, does anyone think this is the end of the F4 cinematic run? At least for the next few decades? Seems this franchise just hasn't ever caught on with Gen Pop.

 

[Disney Irish]

Barring a box office miracle or a DVD/Disney+ movement, does anyone think this is the end of the F4 cinematic run? At least for the next few decades? Seems this franchise just hasn't ever caught on with Gen Pop.

There were rumors of a sequel already being in the works. Plus they are already slated to be in Doomsday and Secret Wars.

So no I don't think this is the last time you see F4 in a MCU movie, either a standalone or ensemble movie.

 

[Basil of Baker Street]

There were rumors of a sequel already being in the works. Plus they are already slated to be in Doomsday and Secret Wars.

So no I don't think this is the last time you see F4 in a MCU movie, either a standalone or ensemble movie.

Maybe an ensemble is the way to go to get more people to buy in. I just can't see a sequel at this point but you never know.

 

[coffeefan]

Maybe an ensemble is the way to go to get more people to buy in. I just can't see a sequel at this point but you never know.

Well, most MCU sequels are crossovers (probably). The crossovers appeal more to audiences based on box office results.

 

[Tha Realest]

Barring a box office miracle or a DVD/Disney+ movement, does anyone think this is the end of the F4 cinematic run? At least for the next few decades? Seems this franchise just hasn't ever caught on with Gen Pop.

The first Fantastic Four movie (2005) got a sequel; of course, it made more money (inflation adjusted) than this one.

It seems for now Disney/MCU have put all their eggs in the ensemble basket; the only publicly announced films on the horizon are the two Doomsday Avengers films and the Sony Spider-Man one. Apparently there’s an untitled 2027 film but nothing firm on what that may be.

A Dr Strange sequel seems like it should be a good way to go - the last one did pretty good. But I think they’re taking a wait and see approach for the next phase of films.

 

[TP2000]

And I take it to mean that you also have no idea, and probably less than I do. Got it.

Also he did publicly admit that the breakeven point wasn't what the person who asked the question, or what you or some others, think it is. He just didn't provide an actual amount, nor should he. As no studio head (or anyone involved with production) ever really provides that detailed of data.


Oh I have plenty of fun, I don't really take any of this seriously, because its all meaningless. And because I know that in the end no matter what any of us say here isn't going to matter. And that any totals you insist as being Disney "losses" aren't real. As we aren't privy to any information. And so the numbers are all made up and the totals aren't real, as another poster recently said from a tagline of a great show I used to watch.

I just like to make sure things are a bit more accurate, just like when you inadvertently switched the budgets of Fantastic Four and Superman and I corrected you.


Oh I can do the math just fine, thank you.


Except you take liberties with the marketing and splits that we can't assume, which is why your "nuanced" Imperial metric never really matches up with any totals from anyone else including Disney themselves in the financials. For example do you know for a fact that the split for Superman's domestic/international was an even 60/40? Or that marketing was an even $100M? For that matter do you know if that marketing spend is specific to just theatrical or includes post-theatrical marketing which really can't be attributed to the theatrical run, something that several posters here have tried to explain to you.

So your "nuanced" Imperial metric really just becomes a muddled mess when you actually think about it for a second. Which is probably why no one else uses it. And why your totals constantly end up being corrected by others who want to at least make the discussion more accurate.



And yet even if its still a "loss" currently, if I'm Disney this looks a whole lot better than the $468M loss that you were insisting with your "nuanced" metric. And so going into the latter half of the year with Zootopia 2 and Avatar 3 as the major releases (and a few other smaller releases) Disney is looking like it'll end 2025 in the positive column.

I thought of replying to all that, and then I thought to myself...

"Oh, hell, this is a guy who works from home and thus wants to post regularly throughout the day and night taking it all very seriously. And I'm just a retired guy on a late nite August patio in La Jolla with another dessert item before me (tonight it's barbecue grilled cinnamon peaches and vanilla ice cream, plus a Bulleit on the rocks!)."

So I'll just continue being me and posting accurate box office data from reputable sources, and my thoughts on that data via the Imperial System as processed via the TP2000 Global Command Center, with occasional outreach for our friends on the Metric system. Plus snarky asides about Burbank budgets and what it must cost to keep the chair massages going in the cubicle farms and the free Tesla charging for low-level execs and then what the catty buzz is at Silver Lake brunch tables every Sunday on why the unwashed masses didn't like Burbank's latest mega-budget thing that should've done much better than it did if only the unwashed masses would obey us and buy tickets to our thing we just made.

And you can do whatever it is that you do.

Deal?

 

[TP2000]

Barring a box office miracle or a DVD/Disney+ movement, does anyone think this is the end of the F4 cinematic run? At least for the next few decades? Seems this franchise just hasn't ever caught on with Gen Pop.

Looking at the current box office data, I'd bet two churros that Burbank execs will be greenlighting a sequel to The Fantastic Four just as soon as they get done with the sequel to The Marvels.

 

[coffeefan]

Looking at the current box office data, I'd bet two churros that Burbank execs will be greenlighting a sequel to The Fantastic Four just as soon as they get done with the sequel to The Marvels.

 

[Disney Irish]

I thought of replying to all that, and then I thought to myself...

"Oh, hell, this is a guy who works from home and thus wants to post regularly throughout the day and night taking it all very seriously. And I'm just a retired guy on a late nite August patio in La Jolla with another dessert item before me (tonight it's barbecue grilled cinnamon peaches and vanilla ice cream, plus a Bulleit on the rocks!)."

So I'll just continue being me and posting accurate box office data from reputable sources, and my thoughts on that data via the Imperial System as processed via the TP2000 Global Command Center, with occasional outreach for our friends on the Metric system. Plus snarky asides about Burbank budgets and what it must cost to keep the chair massages going in the cubicle farms and the free Tesla charging for low-level execs and then what the catty buzz is at Silver Lake brunch tables every Sunday on why the unwashed masses didn't like Burbank's latest mega-budget thing that should've done much better than it did if only the unwashed masses would obey us and buy tickets to our thing we just made.

And you can do whatever it is that you do.

Deal?

Sorry no desserts for me, got to watch the calorie and sugar intake. But I do like a good cheesecake.

And I’ll be here commenting (and asking you to correct your unintentional mistakes). Though would suggest you finally switch to using the 2.5x rule of thumb metric, it’s just easier. Your brain with thank you since it means less math, and I know how you hate math.

And I will do whatever I do and being me, thanks for caring.

 

[DKampy]

A Dr Strange sequel seems like it should be a good way to go - the last one did pretty good. But I think they’re taking a wait and see approach for the next phase of films.

I expect a Black Panther sequel to be announced before a Dr. Strange…. Ryan Coogler has already mentioned he has been writing the Script…Denzel Washington has already mentioned he was being considered for a role… plus the last one was a success box office wise as well as Coogler coming off the success of Sinners… I believe that has the strongest chance of a successful solo film at this point

 

[Tha Realest]

I expect a Black Panther sequel to be announced before a Dr. Strange…. Ryan Coogler has already mentioned he has been writing the Script…Denzel Washington has already mentioned he was being considered for a role… plus the last one was a success box office wise as well as Coogler coming off the success of Sinners… I believe that has the strongest chance of a successful solo film at this point

Ah yes. I forgot that Denzel leaked the news but also that it hadn’t been officially confirmed at the time. He’s now tight lipped when asked about it. https://screenrant.com/black-panther-3-denzel-washington-casting-addressed/

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Question regarding streaming: what constitutes a stream?

Reason: I’ve noticed some streaming services automatically start playing whatever they want after what you are watching ends (if you aren’t very fast on the button.)

Example: I just watched an episode of “Platonic” on apple. Within seconds of it ending, the completely unrelated new Jason Mamoa vehicle started playing. (Same thing happened the other night after “Shrinking.”) It now shows up in my “continue watching” section.

Does that count as a stream? Or two? Does it have to go a certain number of minutes first?

Does apple get to pad the numbers for their new shows & movies if people fall asleep on the couch before a show ends, and their hot new property plays through?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Barring a box office miracle or a DVD/Disney+ movement, does anyone think this is the end of the F4 cinematic run? At least for the next few decades? Seems this franchise just hasn't ever caught on with Gen Pop.

Well this one got shot down…someone tell Luis

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The first Fantastic Four movie (2005) got a sequel; of course, it made more money (inflation adjusted) than this one.

It seems for now Disney/MCU have put all their eggs in the ensemble basket; the only publicly announced films on the horizon are the two Doomsday Avengers films and the Sony Spider-Man one. Apparently there’s an untitled 2027 film but nothing firm on what that may be.

A Dr Strange sequel seems like it should be a good way to go - the last one did pretty good. But I think they’re taking a wait and see approach for the next phase of films.

The last one got the post Covid cabin fever bump…but it was kinda crap.

I expect a Black Panther sequel to be announced before a Dr. Strange…. Ryan Coogler has already mentioned he has been writing the Script…Denzel Washington has already mentioned he was being considered for a role… plus the last one was a success box office wise as well as Coogler coming off the success of Sinners… I believe that has the strongest chance of a successful solo film at this point

Neither should be getting sequels. That’s bad strategy

 

[DKampy]

The last one got the post Covid cabin fever bump…but it was kinda crap.

I liked Dr. Strange…. I thought it was one of the better post End Game films…but I know I am in the Minority on these boards…I like it for the Sam Raini quality of it all

Neither should be getting sequels. That’s bad strategy

You don’t think a sequel could do well… it is rumored T’challa’s son will be the new Black Panther… it will attract an audience beyond just the MCU fans…Which is what Marvel should concentrate on at this point…. Marvel is not going to stop making content completely despite your wishes