Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Lilo and Stitch up to around $1.020B with about $3M still to go to hit top domestic grosser thus far:

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Lone hit of the year…with more rough seas ahead

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So you guys think Fantastic ends its run at $520- $570 million? Is that good? You guys are calling these movies loss leaders and will make its money back on Disney plus.

Going forward make films between 124-150 million, make them as cheap as possible.

You’re $150 mil heavy on that estimate

 

[Animaniac93-98]

If Superman makes over $335 million domestically, it will be in the top 5 DC movies (unadjusted)

It's currently at $316 million

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sony is also to blame for oversaturating the market with Marvel content (that's even worse in quality)

Partial blame

We didn’t need 3 ant man…4 thors…a black panther after black panther literally DIED…

That kinda crap is for the comic books…not to invest billions in studio costs on each year

They killed off the core 2 and went weird…in a brief Synopsis…that was the mistake

We’re in the “bad bond” loop now

 

[Ghost93]

Partial blame

We didn’t need 3 ant man…4 thors…a black panther after black panther literally DIED…

That kinda crap is for the comic books…not to invest billions in studio costs on each year

They killed off the core 2 and went weird…in a brief Synopsis…that was the mistake

We’re in the “bad bond” loop now

Thor 4 could have been great. Gorr the God Butcher and the Jane Foster cancer/Mighty Thor arc both had potential, but were squandered by the ridiculous comedic tone (it felt more like a parody of a Thor movie than an actual Thor movie).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Thor 4 could have been great. Gorr the God Butcher and the Jane Foster cancer/Mighty Thor arc both had potential, but were squandered by the ridiculous comedic tone (it felt more like a parody of a Thor movie than an actual Thor movie).

Personally…3 of the 4 thors were awful

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Do the majority of women love Marvel and Star Wars? I don’t and my girls don’t seem very interested. What’s the target market for these films? General family audience?

 

[erasure fan1]

We're seeing that affect consumer spending in all sectors, even fast food sales are declining.

Because many people don't want to pay the crazy price, very similar to the theater. If my family went to McDonald's, and everyone got a "value meal". That's $40+ minimum. For McDonald's? And it's really no better at Wendy's, Burger King, Taco bell.... A movie is even worse. That's going to cost us $60+, and that's if we sneak snacks in. And the problem lies in the fact that you can get a extremely quality experience at home for a fraction of the cost. Same goes for food.

So when you put out so much mediocre to bad content over a 5 year timeframe. You lose the benefit of the doubt. And with the high prices, films that don't hook me right away with the trailers and marketing are going to lose me more often than not. Things I would go see before that I was on the fence with, become a, well I'm just going to wait for streaming.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Box Office: ‘Fantastic Four’ Craters By 66% in Second Weekend, ‘Naked Gun’ Debuts to $17 Million

"The Fantastic Four: First Steps" is quickly losing steam at the box office in its second weekend.

variety.com

Craters.

 

[Disney Irish]

Because many people don't want to pay the crazy price, very similar to the theater. If my family went to McDonald's, and everyone got a "value meal". That's $40+ minimum. For McDonald's? And it's really no better at Wendy's, Burger King, Taco bell.... A movie is even worse. That's going to cost us $60+, and that's if we sneak snacks in. And the problem lies in the fact that you can get a extremely quality experience at home for a fraction of the cost. Same goes for food.

So when you put out so much mediocre to bad content over a 5 year timeframe. You lose the benefit of the doubt. And with the high prices, films that don't hook me right away with the trailers and marketing are going to lose me more often than not. Things I would go see before that I was on the fence with, become a, well I'm just going to wait for streaming.

So that sounds like cost is the main driver for these decisions, not necessarily the content on the screen, which I suspect cost is also the main driver for a majority consumers. If the costs were half or 2/3rds where they are now like they were 10-15 years ago I suspect you wouldn't hesitate to go.

 

[Tha Realest]

So Fantastic Four landed with a thud. I’m worrying it won’t hit a billion despite a few posters here saying it was either a certainty, or “too early to tell” if it would hit a billion. Well, it’s safe to say that’s virtually an impossibility, absent Taylor and Travis hastily scheduling a wedding that can only be viewed via Fathom Events with the purchase of a ticket to Fantastic Four. But, they haven’t said they aren’t considering that, so it’s still possible…

Where are we now? The vaunted, optimistic start to Phase 6 landed with a big thud. Adjusted for inflation, it’s likely going to end up closer to Black Widow and Eternals without the pandemic excuse. It’s looking distressingly like it’ll perform like Quantumania, and that film’s reception (and Majors’s issues) likely prompted this all-in approach to the Doomsday Avengers films. They’ve sidelined other films in favor of going straight to the Doomsday Avengers team up films next within the MCU/Disney mainline films (Sony has another Spider-Man film coming, this time with the added pizzazz of Bernthal and Ruffalo, costars of recent MCU series that had terrible viewership).

This film is likely unable to earn a profit when it’s all said and done. The Cinemascore and audience ratings didn’t seem to translate to repeat business or box office legs. Looking forward, given the audience ambivalence to MCU, the salaries of the stars involved, and the budgetary management of the Russos, what does the future hold for the MCU?

 

[Tha Realest]

One would of thought it could open better then the awful Friedburg and Seltzer films like Meet the Spartans and Epic movies… those usually opened to about 18 million unadjusted

Why would anyone think that? Neeson’s* toiled in bad direct to video/streaming films for the better part of a decade, and Anderson’s film career was virtually nonexistent until that film she was nominated for last year. These sorts of comedies have functionally died off. There was no expectation going in this film was somehow a “slam dunk” given the currents against it.

*I liked his appearance on Life is Short, but his only comedic film appearance of note was in the execrable A Million Ways to Die in the West, which was a critical and box office failure.

 

[Disney Irish]

So Fantastic Four landed with a thud. I’m worrying it won’t hit a billion despite a few posters here saying it was either a certainty, or “too early to tell” if it would hit a billion. Well, it’s safe to say that’s virtually an impossibility, absent Taylor and Travis hastily scheduling a wedding that can only be viewed via Fathom Events with the purchase of a ticket to Fantastic Four. But, they haven’t said they aren’t considering that, so it’s still possible…

Where are we now? The vaunted, optimistic start to Phase 6 landed with a big thud. Adjusted for inflation, it’s likely going to end up closer to Black Widow and Eternals without the pandemic excuse. It’s looking distressingly like it’ll perform like Quantumania, and that film’s reception (and Majors’s issues) likely prompted this all-in approach to the Doomsday Avengers films. They’ve sidelined other films in favor of going straight to the Doomsday Avengers team up films next within the MCU/Disney mainline films (Sony has another Spider-Man film coming, this time with the added pizzazz of Bernthal and Ruffalo, costars of recent MCU series that had terrible viewership).

This film is likely unable to earn a profit when it’s all said and done. The Cinemascore and audience ratings didn’t seem to translate to repeat business or box office legs. Looking forward, given the audience ambivalence to MCU, the salaries of the stars involved, and the budgetary management of the Russos, what does the future hold for the MCU?

I guess the real question is do you bet against RDJs return to the MCU, especially with the spectacle of him playing the "bad guy". I wouldn't, no matter where audiences are with the MCU right now.

 

[BrianLo]

You’re $150 mil heavy on that estimate

520-150 is 370…

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Here's a list of Hollywood movies that have made over $500 million worldwide so far this year:

Lilo and Stitch: $1.02 billion
Minecraft Movie: $955 million
Jurassic World: $766 million
How to Train Your Dragon: $618 million
Mission Impossible: $594 million
Superman: $551 million
F1: $545 million

That's 7 movies, with other like Wicked, Zootopia and Avatar likely to reach that threshold too

I get that box office overall isn't what it used to be, but if none of this year's MCU titles reaches $500 million, that's evidence of an MCU specific problem that can't only be explained by ticket prices or other macro factors.

Who predicted How to Train Your Dragon and potentially F1 outgrossing Fantastic 4?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Here's a hypothetical, if Superman and Fantastic 4 had switched release dates, would their results have been different?

 

[Nevermore525]

Here's a list of Hollywood movies that have made over $500 million worldwide so far this year:

Lilo and Stitch: $1.02 billion
Minecraft Movie: $955 million
Jurassic World: $766 million
How to Train Your Dragon: $618 million
Mission Impossible: $594 million
Superman: $551 million
F1: $545 million

That's 7 movies, with other like Wicked, Zootopia and Avatar likely to reach that threshold too

I get that box office overall isn't what it used to be, but if none of this year's MCU titles reaches $500 million, that's evidence of an MCU specific problem that can't only be explained by ticket prices or other macro factors.

Who predicted How to Train Your Dragon and potentially F1 outgrossing Fantastic 4?

Top 7 all based in well known IPs!! Sequels, reboots, and movies based on globally popular entities (Minecraft, F1)

 

[Nevermore525]

Here's a hypothetical, if Superman and Fantastic 4 had switched release dates, would their results have been different?

No, Superman is a more popular/well known entity than Fantastic 4. Fantastic 4 would’ve had to be exceptionally better than Superman and with WOM to perform better.

Reviews being basically equivalent Superman gets the edge every time.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Top 7 all based in well known IPs!! Sequels, reboots, and movies based on globally popular entities (Minecraft, F1)

And this year's MCU titles are not that?

 

[BrianLo]

I get that box office overall isn't what it used to be, but if none of this year's MCU titles reaches $500 million, that's evidence of an MCU specific problem that can't only be explained by ticket prices or other macro factors.

Fantastic 4 added 150M last week…

A 3x multiple would carry forward to 670. I get it’s not holding well and that is almost assuredly too generous, but I’m struggling with everyone’s current prognostications.