Rodan75
Well-Known Member
Lol. True.
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News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition
- Thread starter ohioguy
- Start date
Lol. True.
FigmentJedi
Well-Known Member
Console games. Bob Iger loves mobile crap though.
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
I'm sure Spider-Man and KH3 helped reinforce that Consol Games are a profitable and interesting business for them and the excitement over Fallen Order will help reinvigorate Disney's desire to own more in this space.
Iger has stated that they aren't very good at publishing video games and are staying in the licensing space for now (I think they've had a slew of bad leaders over their Interactive division and we would have seen a much different result if they had found an Alan Horn of Video Games). I think if Chapek is going to have a break out moment it is going to be related to Video Games as a growth engine for his PEP division.
happycamperuni
Active Member
CNBC says that Comcast is discussing selling its share in Hulu to Disney which would give Disney total control of Hulu.
PizzaPlanet
Well-Known Member
If that would mean losing the NBC content on Hulu, then no thanks.
happycamperuni
Active Member
I don't think it would mean that for a while probably. Comcast is content to sell NBCU content to outside programmers (i.e. Netflix deals for NBC re-runs as well as DreamWorks shows).
From what it sounds like, Comcast doesn't want to be a minority shareholder still taking up 1/3 of the Hulu losses while Hulu is still in massive growth/content spend mode.
I think Hulu would at least be able to maintain their deal for NBC content for a couple years. Comcast wants to have its cake without paying the bill (i.e. right now Comcast takes a $300 million charge for Hulu's spend while Hulu sends $300 million to NBCU for the content). Comcast wants to keep the NBCU payments while not paying for Hulu's growth; i.e. Disney gives Comcast $4-5 billion to walk away from Hulu while still paying for NBC content.
bartholomr4
Well-Known Member
Comcast is in talks to sell its 30% stake in Hulu to Disney
The company must weigh a number of different variables before agreeing to a sale.
Great article explaining the pro's and con's for Comcast of holding or selling.... Seems to me this article (coming from CNBC, a company owned by Comcast) is acknowledgement that Comcast wants to sell. If Brian Roberts wanted to keep it, this wouldn't be coming out now... The real issues (as hinted above) are the ability to maintain Hulu as a distribution destination for NBCU content, and the price Disney is willing to pay.
There is evidence that Disney can raise the stakes by putting more money into Hulu and forcing NBCU to match. Not that I think Iger would do that, but Disney has much more leverage now with the controlling interest.... Especially if it decides to consolidate Hulu into it's financials and balance sheet.
Indy_UK
Well-Known Member
Disney needs to be generous here and just offer Comcast a slight premium to make them sell now. Don’t bring in any other trading stuff like the Marvel theme park rights.
Just offer them a simple, bold cash offer from their sale of the RSNs. They’ll be taking the hits now but pushing Hulu Worldwide is what they need and then just get the content providers onboard
Just offer them a simple, bold cash offer from their sale of the RSNs. They’ll be taking the hits now but pushing Hulu Worldwide is what they need and then just get the content providers onboard
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Judging by the stockmarket reaction to Comcasts earning and the CNBC story of Disney and Comcast talking about Disney buying the rest of Hulu, the investing public like this. If Disney buys Hulu there is no one to block it's international expansion, a major plus for Disney. Comcast on the otherhand gets a big payday, a major plus for them.
This will be a win for both. It will also allow Disney to pursue its worldwide direct to consumers expansion. It will also open up new competition in Europe and please the EU. The more competition the better as Hulu can also expand its live TV options all across the EU.
As for other assets that could be included, other than obtaining the remaining movie rights Universal may have with Marvel characters, I don't see any payoffs for themepark rights. It is not in Disney's interest since they have plenty of Marvel characters they can use at WDW and in less than 10 years they will have the rights to every Marvel characters everywhere outside of Orlando. IMO the rights Universal has are meaningless and not worth paying one cent for.
This will be a win for both. It will also allow Disney to pursue its worldwide direct to consumers expansion. It will also open up new competition in Europe and please the EU. The more competition the better as Hulu can also expand its live TV options all across the EU.
As for other assets that could be included, other than obtaining the remaining movie rights Universal may have with Marvel characters, I don't see any payoffs for themepark rights. It is not in Disney's interest since they have plenty of Marvel characters they can use at WDW and in less than 10 years they will have the rights to every Marvel characters everywhere outside of Orlando. IMO the rights Universal has are meaningless and not worth paying one cent for.
bartholomr4
Well-Known Member
I agree if the sale of Hulu is the only thing they are talking about. However if Brian Roberts wants to add a contract insuring Hulu continues to purchase NBCU content for broadcast on Hulu, then it seems to be completely reasonable for Disney to request the same of Comcast for Infinity and Sky. This should (in my opinion) include discussions about movie rights and character usage in the parks. Maybe there are some assets which 21CF had, which Disney sees as surplus, which they would trade to Comcast..... I remember when NBCU was negotiating for Sunday Night Football and they wanted the ABC Booth Talent (Al Michaels), they traded Al Michaels for Oswald the Rabbit.
If you leave it up to the lawyers, why not give them all of the leverage you can in the negotiations. Especially if you can trade away assets you are going to sunset anyway!
the.dreamfinder
Well-Known Member
AnotherDayAnotherDollar
Well-Known Member
Starting at 9m57s. I'm not a body language expert, but to me Roberts is giddy that Disney really wants to own all of Hulu. He's willing to sell, but it'll require a nice premium. Disney can ask for all those Marvel rights and they can be bundled if they pay the high premium that Comcast will want for their 30-33% of Hulu. As others said, the Marvel rights they own are pretty worthless, here's why:
1) Distribution to The Incredible Hulk (MCU canon), Ang Lee's Hulk (non canon), other Hulk products (non canon). Probably bring in around mid to high 6 figures or very low 7 figures in revenue from licensing. My guess is the former and on the low side. These are nothing to write home about. Disney would want them to put them in their service and being one step closer to having all MCU products in one place, but it's not something they need or even think about
2) Rights of first refusal for Hulk solo movies. Worthless to Comcast. Disney will never green light a movie that Comcast will distribute. Worthless to Disney as they can use the character as long as it's not in the title. Comcast knows Disney can make a 700-800MM+ solo Hulk movie though and wouldn't want to give its competitor more ammo, but it's meaningless due to the amount of characters Marvel alone has that can make that much
3) Namor rights. See above. Feige already said no one else can make the movie but Marvel Studios. At worst it's a similar situation to Hulk and similar situation as described above
4) Use of Marvel name in theme parks. Disney would prefer to do that as they know the power of branding, but they can use "Super Hero land" as an acceptable substitute. Not a huge deal.
4) Theme park rights in Orlando. Disney has way too many characters and IPs they can use. Would they want this? Yes. Would they pay a hefty amount for it alone. No. Universal can't really update the land to MCU characters, but they are more than happy to pay the low licensing fee for such a big name.
As you can see, both are happy/okay with the status quo and no need to change. My guess is Roberts and Comcast would want 7, 8B+ for the 30-33% of Hulu alone (just by comparing valuation with netflix from that cnbc article). If Disney is underpaying, Comcast can try to entice them by including the meaningless Marvel rights and come up to the number they want. If Disney is willing to pay right off the bat they can get the deal finalized by asking for the meaningless Marvel rights as well.
All that said it's still very early and unsure if even the deal for just Hulu is going to be consummated as stated in the article. I did find Roberts demeanor interesting though and thought I would share. I'm hoping Iger gets asked about that during Q2 financial call on May 8th.
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
Given how excited analysts have gotten over the ‘3-prong’ strategy, I doubt that Disney will abandon Disney+ as a platform at this point. But owning all of Hulu in order to speed up the international expansion will be huge. Hulu still needs a better originals content strategy, but having one owner helps.
Comcast gets to pay down some debt and gets to saddle Disney with one more integration headache and distracts Disney as NFL Sunday Ticket, one of the most valuable set of US sports rights, is coming up for an unexpected negotiation.
bartholomr4
Well-Known Member
If you look at Comcast’s earnings report this morning, there are two items which stand out which you have to look closely to see:
1) Sky did not do well in the quarter and (Sky)income fell 11.9% YoY, and Revenue Growth was down 17%
2) In order to get their rosy report, Comcast had to write up their value of Hulu by $158 MM because AT&T’s sale forced them to value the asset at the same value AT&T sold their shares to Hulu.
I love the talk of the sale of Comcast’s stake in Hulu to Disney, but I doubt Disney or Comcast want to go and get regulatory approval and drag the closing out for 6 months.... If it happens, I am thinking (opinion only )the sale of the Comcast stake to Hulu instead of (directly to) Disney will make all of that regulatory process a lot easier.
I agree Brian Roberts would sell tomorrow for $7-8 Billion, and who knows if Iger is getting ready to pay that much, but I doubt it. I am thinking $4.5 to $5 Billion because of the AT&T valuation. (Think about Randall Stevenson’s reaction if they could have gotten another $700MM for their stake). Hulu is not a mature as Netflix, especially internationally, so using the Netflix Valuation to price Hulu is a stretch (my opinion).
Remember, Comcast has to decide if it wants to pay for a portion of the AT&T 9.4%. 30% of that is about $500million. Also funding the international expansion provides Disney with a great deal of leverage, as it appears that the agreement between Hulu and its owners, includes the ability to veto borrowing money, paying a dividend, taking the company public or selling itself to another company. It appears the agreement doesn’t prevent Hulu from going to one of the current owners (I,e, Disney) and selling more stock to fund its expansion.
The reason AT&T had 9.4% to sell and not 10%, is because AT&T failed to cover its portion of the quarterly deficit for Hulu. This means if Comcast doesn’t pay its portion of the shortage, then it must surrender shares in Hulu equal to what that shortage would be. In other words, Comcast can’t sit back and let Disney invest in Hulu, and get the benefit for free. I believe Disney will have the cash (what it received in the merger from 21CF because of the Sky sale, and what it will receive from the sale of the RSN’s) to force its hand with the expansion.
Lastly, with all of the articles this week about Iger leaving in 2 years, I don’t think Disney will be slow to move. We should see the out right purchase or a go it alone strategy show up sometime in the next 3-4 months. Just My opinion !
Rodan75
Well-Known Member
I agree with much of what you say. But remember Comcast can veto any expansion plan, which means they aren’t on the hook for international expansion or original programming expansion if they don’t want to be.
I do think this moment is the best possible moment for Comcast to sell...the Hulu valuation is likely the highest it will be for years between now and the launch of Disney+. After D+ launches I suspect Hulu’s library and customer reach will seem less valuable and unique.
Ismael Flores
Well-Known Member
In one of the articles i read, Comcast representatives said that they have no plans to remove NBC content from hulu if they ever decide to sell.
That does not mean that it would not happen since Comcast is working on their own streaming service.
The thing is that Comcast had no say in the working of Hulu because of a gag order in the contract even though they owned 30 percent. Just when the Gag order expired and now had a say of how Hulu content and operating could be Disney bought fox. They basically back where they started because Disney took majority ownership of Hulu. Now that AT&T sold to Hulu that portion gets split into comcast and Disney which means Disney gets even more control.
Eventually Comcast will want out because its sharing in the losses at the moment. Hulu is not profitable and wont be till at least 2024
Yes, Hulu will not be profitable until 2024 based on staying solely in the US. If they expand internationally that estimate is wrong. Losses will be higher for the initial expansion but total profitability will be sooner and greater. Hulu is for more adult programming while Disney plus is for everyone.
Quinnmac000
Well-Known Member
Rereading the conference call, its the fact they know the value of their properties. They trust so much in their properties to include three of the most watched shows on streaming services and one of the most watched shows WW (Brookyln 99, The Office, Parks and Rec, 30 Rock).
Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
Disney fans obsession with Universal giving up the Marvel theme park rights is...amusing.
Not going to happen.
Not going to happen.