News Disney and Fox come to terms -- announcement soon; huge IP acquisition

[Sirwalterraleigh]

ESPN will benefit big time from sports betting. Thanks to Chris Christie and the Sumpreme Court Disney's biggest problem no longer is a problem. They came out with the App at the perfect time. Iger is either the luckiest person in the world or a genius.

Espn will have to benefit in a different format however...which means it will have to be bundled with the Disney content somehow...

Espn has 2 problems:
1. It’s format is dying
2. It’s absolutely wretched to watch.
Gamblers don’t need 23.5 hours of talking head fluff per day to figure out where to lay and what the days take is...they’re lazy but not THAT lazy

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They do (as do all businesses). But Comcast's core businesses have structural problems that aren't easily solvable due the the changing landscape in the next few years. Disney has similar problems with ESPN, but it's other businesses can (and are) helping to prop up that declining business, especially Parks. Comcast has NBCU and it's own Parks, but neither is it's core and neither is to the scope and scale to what Disney has. Does Disney have risks? Sure. But outside of ESPN, there aren't any of the foreseeable inevitable declines that Comcast has.

Iger gutted the “recession proofing” from the parks...which is 35ish percent of the business and rising....

That...is major problem no one wants to talk about.

So Comcast isn’t really “less stable”...if you consider it that way. They are certainly not in the catbirds seat...but neither is disney.

 

[seascape]

Espn will have to benefit in a different format however...which means it will have to be bundled with the Disney content somehow...

Espn has 2 problems:
1. It’s format is dying
2. It’s absolutely wretched to watch.
Gamblers don’t need 23.5 hours of talking head fluff per day to figure out where to lay and what the days take is...they’re lazy but not THAT lazy

Gamblers need access to live college sports along with prospects and ESPN has more of that locked up than anyone else. The future of betting is embedding the best within the app and live coverage. Believe it or not Tennis one of the top sport for betting in Europe and they bet on each point. The NBA fans next year will be able to bet on free throws. As for talking heads those who just talk about gambling possibilities will have the highest rating in Sports news and ESPN will have shows dedicated to betting.

 

[mikejs78]

Iger gutted the “recession proofing” from the parks...which is 35ish percent of the business and rising....

That...is major problem no one wants to talk about.

So Comcast isn’t really “less stable”...if you consider it that way. They are certainly not in the catbirds seat...but neither is disney.

Recessions are transient, the decline of Cable TV and wired broadband are not.

How did he get the recession proofing? (Genuinely curious)...

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Gamblers need access to live college sports along with prospects and ESPN has more of that locked up than anyone else. The future of betting is embedding the best within the app and live coverage. Believe it or not Tennis one of the top sport for betting in Europe and they bet on each point. The NBA fans next year will be able to bet on free throws. As for talking heads those who just talk about gambling possibilities will have the highest rating in Sports news and ESPN will have shows dedicated to betting.

Honestly...who watches Espn? That has been borne out in 10 years of collapsing numbers. It’s not just cable cutting...it’s failure across the spectrum.

But...they have an opportunity to capitalize if they can somehow turn it back around.

But espn has competition form
Online, nbc and cbs that are gonna go even more pro gambling aggressive than ESPN will...that’s my take.

We’ll see. The old espn is dead either way -
However - so it will have to be a ground up rebuild.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Recessions are transient, the decline of Cable TV and wired broadband are not.

How did he get the recession proofing? (Genuinely curious)...

He gutted the recession proofing by extending pricing to the max limits - which like or not they never did before.

They’ll just discount? Great...how’s 50-75% sound to the street?

When it’s not there for a mass enterprise...it’s just not there.

And like it or not, what are people more likely to dump - they’re $1000 annual internet bill or their $4000 annual trip?

Disney’s products are much more disposable...in a twisted sort of way.

But this is all theoretical as long as it’s GREAT...

(Coulda resist that )

 

[mikejs78]

Funny thing, as I'm reading this thread I'm sitting on a train in Boston. The people near me are discussing how ESPN's new service is going to be a winner because of the sports gambling, solely based on the rights that they have. ESPN's biggest liability may turn into it's biggest asset.

 

[mikejs78]

He gutted the recession proofing by extending pricing to the max limits - which like or not they never did before.

They’ll just discount? Great...how’s 50-75% sound to the street?

When it’s not there for a mass enterprise...it’s just not there.

And like it or not, what are people more likely to dump - they’re $1000 annual internet bill or their $4000 annual trip?

Disney’s products are much more disposable...in a twisted sort of way.

But this is all theoretical as long as it’s GREAT...

(Coulda resist that )

There's a lot of ways they could do it. Deeper discounts for the moderates and values, for example. Special packages that don't list a potential discount, but something like '5days/4 nights at Pop, plus park tickets and free dining, famy of 4, $2500". That'll have less scrutiny on the street than a 75% hotel discount.

 

[Lensman]

He gutted the recession proofing by extending pricing to the max limits - which like or not they never did before.

They’ll just discount? Great...how’s 50-75% sound to the street?

When it’s not there for a mass enterprise...it’s just not there.

And like it or not, what are people more likely to dump - they’re $1000 annual internet bill or their $4000 annual trip?

Clarification: You're saying that Iger gutted recession proofing by (using your example) raising the price of a hypothetical family's WDW vacation in good times from $3000 to $4000. So when recession kicks in they will choose to save by not going on the trip?

So under the pre-Iger scheme, are you saying that this family would be paying $3000 in good times and would continue to pay $3000 during a recession? But under the Iger scheme, this family would be paying $4000 in good times and would cancel their trip to WDW unless it was discounted to $2000? Or are you saying that under both schemes, the hypothetical family would only go on their WDW trip during a recession for $2000? And that to Wall Street, a 33% drop to the top line is better than 50% drop from a higher base?

Thanks in advance for the explanation.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

The 2nd biggest problem ESPN has after cable dying is that it's over politicized and Iger doesn't see or doesn't want to see that. I don't care what side of the aisle you're on, you should not be talking politics or taking political stances when all I want to do is watch the game and relax. Or watch sports highlights and relax. I know people who have stopped watching ESPN because of the politics that are coming on the channel. It's not an ESPN only thing as FS1 started doing it too.

Granted, it's better than it was a couple of years ago, but it's something that they need to remedy.

 

[jakeman]

Who's on first?

 

[PaulZ]

I don’t have $4K to take a once every 5 year trip. It’s more like $1500-$2K. Thus why I never stay on site at Disney.

 

[mikejs78]

I wanted to see how cheap a Disney vacation could be with staying on property. So I priced out a 5 day/4 night stay in early December with theme park tickets (no hopper) for a family of 4. Assuming the kids are both under 10, the cheapest hotel (All Star Music) was $112/night rack rate, so $450 for the stay. Tickets are $1500 for said family. Throw in another $500 for food, and that's a $2000 vacation. Now apply some discounts. Let's say during a recession Disney provides a 20% discount on the room and free dining. That cuts the nightly rate to $90 for a total of $360 + $1500 = $1860. Or they provide the same in a package for $1500. There are ways to do Disney today and in the hypothetical recession that are nowhere near the $4k range.

 

[pdude81]

Regional sports networks are what will really do well once sports betting hits it's stride

 

[mikejs78]

Regional sports networks are what will really do well once sports betting hits it's stride

Which, coincidentally, is a big part of the Fox deal.

 

[Quinnmac000]

People missed out on one of the larger shareholders are pushing for Comcast over Disney.

Separately, activist investor and Fox shareholder Chris Hohn said he would back a Comcast bid over the current deal with Disney, the investor told Rupert Murdoch in a private letter Wednesday in which he urged the media mogul to engage with Comcast on a deal.

Mr. Hohn disclosed he owned a 7.4% stake in Fox, larger than previously known, and said he was unconcerned about regulatory risk from closing a Comcast-Fox deal, according to a copy of the letter reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Fox didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Contacted by phone, Mr. Hohn said the letter is meant to guarantee that Comcast is given a fair chance to bid against Disney for the Fox assets. He said his firm, TCI Fund Management,“is willing to fight to ensure there is a full and fair auction for Fox” and that “no obstacle should stand in the way.”

Comcast has been contemplating a renewed pursuit of Fox’s assets since the deal with Disney was announced in December at a lower price than Comcast had offered. For both Comcast and Disney, the pursuit of Fox is a gambit to better compete against Netflix Inc. and other global tech giants as the American pay-TV landscape comes under pressure.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/comcas...entury-fox-threatening-disney-deal-1527078344

 

[Stripes]

People missed out on one of the larger shareholders are pushing for Comcast over Disney.

They're not pushing for Comcast over Disney, they're pushing for a bidding war.

The letter is meaningless though. Murdoch has nearly full control of the board. And he would rather reject a cash offer and sell to nobody. Comcast knows this and they're not serious about actually buying Fox, they're serious about stopping Disney. This is also the activist investor Comcast approached. Other firms will likely follow the board recommendation.

 

[Stripes]

Disney will top the Comcast bid if they have to. Their balance sheet is already much stronger and they have lots of options to choose from.

 

[seascape]

As a consumer who hates Comcast and how they treat their customers, I would love to see them have to pay the Fox breakup fee to Disney and go through the Legal review and be denied and have to pay another 2.5 billion. That would mean 4 billion for nothing and hopefully a class action lawsuit against Robert's and the Comcast Board. If the Federal Government let's such a clear antitrust case get through means the consumers have no protection anymore. It would be bad enough to let Disney have 40 plus percent of the domestic box office, but to let Comcast have it all is insane. Just in 2015 Universal was number 1 at the box office so they should be denied for the same reason Disney should be but if you look into the power and the fact that Comcast has not followed the consent decree they are currently under can't be approved. The do not treat all customers the same and give higher Internet speed to those who subscribe to their TV service and refuse to provide the higher speed to those who only want Internet. It is clear they will use their power to profit more than justified. Again no broadband company should own the content, it is just wrong. Comcast should grow and improve their broadband and be forced to divest NBC Universal.

 

[Stripes]

And also before Seascape comes with statements of Brian Roberts power is bad...difference is with Roberts he is vested for life in Comcast success long term while Disney is only focusing on short term gains.

Really dude? Yeah, when you're merging with a $60 billion company all you care about are short-term gains